YTD 9-7
Ekeing out a small profit thus far, but, hey, this record would get me into the NFC playoffs!
If you're at all familiar with my plays, I'm sure you're thinking that I've been drueling over these large dog lines all week. Fact of the matter is, there are minimal plays that I like, and of the three plays I considered, two, Pittsburgh and New England, are faves. But, in keeping with U-G-L-Y tradition, I give you...
Miami +12
This will probably get me committed, and rightfully so, but I think A.J Feeley has a big game. The Dolphins offense has improved throughout the season, most notably the offensive line, as they've had a chance to gel. The big boys have allowed Feeley to be sacked only 13 times. Feeley, for his part, has shown toughness, avoiding sacks and trying to make plays. Unfortunately, some of those plays he tries to make turn out lookin' real dumb, as evidenced by his 5 pick day vs. Buffalo.
Granted, turnovers are tough to put aside. They are many more times than not the deciding factor in any given game. Thankfully for Miami, Denver has struggled finding a pass rush, notching only 24 sacks on the year. If given time, Feeley has the ability to find the open receiver, and has actually spread the ball around quite nicely of late. More importantly, the lack of pressure will cut down Feeley's turnover risk exponentially.
Furthermore, Miami doesn't have a whole heck of a lot of choice but to throw the ball, particularly early in the game, to keep John Lynch honest. Lynch excels in run support, but has questionable cover skills. Denver boasts a solid run stopping unit, and if Lynch can camp out in the box, the Dolphins will have no chance on the ground.
Regretably, I'm not real keen on the way the Dolphins defense matches up. Droughns is a bruising runner, and the middle of the Miami defense is in a shambles. On the bright side, Droughns has had some problems holding onto the ball.
What I do like about the defensive matchup is the fact that Jake Plummer is still the Broncs QB. He has looked downright awful at times this season, and now he faces arguably the best set of corners in the league. His accuracy is questionable, and, other than Rod Smith, his receivers drop too many passes.
The line is above average, but Miami DE's Taylor and Bowens have been hot, combining for 6.5 sacks and four forced fumbles the past four weeks. If these two can apply pressure, Plummer will be a non-factor.
The Broncs will be able to score, but I figure they'll have to at least crack 30 to get the cover here. It's possible, but I think Plummer's too inconsistent to expect Denver to score at will.
And besides, if Kerry Collins can throw for 350 in a blizzard at Mile High, and Mike Vick can average over 10 yards per attempt at Mile High, why shouldn't anyone expect Feeley to have at least moderate success.
If I'm wrong and Feeley sucks, tell the nice men in white coats I'll go quietly.
Good luck,
Space.
Ekeing out a small profit thus far, but, hey, this record would get me into the NFC playoffs!
If you're at all familiar with my plays, I'm sure you're thinking that I've been drueling over these large dog lines all week. Fact of the matter is, there are minimal plays that I like, and of the three plays I considered, two, Pittsburgh and New England, are faves. But, in keeping with U-G-L-Y tradition, I give you...
Miami +12
This will probably get me committed, and rightfully so, but I think A.J Feeley has a big game. The Dolphins offense has improved throughout the season, most notably the offensive line, as they've had a chance to gel. The big boys have allowed Feeley to be sacked only 13 times. Feeley, for his part, has shown toughness, avoiding sacks and trying to make plays. Unfortunately, some of those plays he tries to make turn out lookin' real dumb, as evidenced by his 5 pick day vs. Buffalo.
Granted, turnovers are tough to put aside. They are many more times than not the deciding factor in any given game. Thankfully for Miami, Denver has struggled finding a pass rush, notching only 24 sacks on the year. If given time, Feeley has the ability to find the open receiver, and has actually spread the ball around quite nicely of late. More importantly, the lack of pressure will cut down Feeley's turnover risk exponentially.
Furthermore, Miami doesn't have a whole heck of a lot of choice but to throw the ball, particularly early in the game, to keep John Lynch honest. Lynch excels in run support, but has questionable cover skills. Denver boasts a solid run stopping unit, and if Lynch can camp out in the box, the Dolphins will have no chance on the ground.
Regretably, I'm not real keen on the way the Dolphins defense matches up. Droughns is a bruising runner, and the middle of the Miami defense is in a shambles. On the bright side, Droughns has had some problems holding onto the ball.
What I do like about the defensive matchup is the fact that Jake Plummer is still the Broncs QB. He has looked downright awful at times this season, and now he faces arguably the best set of corners in the league. His accuracy is questionable, and, other than Rod Smith, his receivers drop too many passes.
The line is above average, but Miami DE's Taylor and Bowens have been hot, combining for 6.5 sacks and four forced fumbles the past four weeks. If these two can apply pressure, Plummer will be a non-factor.
The Broncs will be able to score, but I figure they'll have to at least crack 30 to get the cover here. It's possible, but I think Plummer's too inconsistent to expect Denver to score at will.
And besides, if Kerry Collins can throw for 350 in a blizzard at Mile High, and Mike Vick can average over 10 yards per attempt at Mile High, why shouldn't anyone expect Feeley to have at least moderate success.
If I'm wrong and Feeley sucks, tell the nice men in white coats I'll go quietly.
Good luck,
Space.
