Well, I feel pretty good about this play, but after choosing the absolute WORST play on the board yesterday (Oregon St.), I am tempering my enthusiasm just a bit.
Miami +6.5 (-109)
Simply put, I think Fiedler will provide a spark against an overrated Jets defense that such powerhouses as Cincy, with a QB making his first start ever, and San Diego were able to have success against.
Yeah, the Dolphins O'line is average at best, but the Jets only have one sack in two games, and have proven they can be run on. Add the fact that MLB Cowart will miss this game in favor of the rookie Vilma, and I feel Miami will be able to move the football more accurately than they've shown, and put up around 17-20 points.
Which will put the onus (again) on the Miami defense. Pennington's been fantastic, and 53 year old Curtis Martin has had a lot of running room so far this year, but, again, I don't feel their quality of opponents has been an accurate barometer. The Dolphins run defense is ranked low, but this is due to their opponents milking the clock with leads, as shown by their league leading 103 run attempts against. But Zach Thomas and Seau should offer more resistance than the Jets saw their first two games.
Miami also has generated a nice pass rush this year with eight sacks already, and still have probably the best set of cornerbacks in football. Jets Pro Bowl C Mawae broke his hand last week and, if he plays, will probably be moved to guard Sunday, which could possibly create some flux in the NY line. I wouldn't expect anything stellar from either Pennington or Martin.
It's pretty much up in the air as to the winner, in my eyes, but I like the comfort zone 6.5 provides. Now, there are sevens out there. I don't hold accounts with these books, and I don't buy points, but I am happy with this number. If you are crazy like me and decide to take Miami, it's probably a good idea to wait til tomorrow afternoon. I will be on the road all morning, though, and see something like a 20-17 game either way, so I'm cool with 6.5.
Good luck,
Space.
Miami +6.5 (-109)
Simply put, I think Fiedler will provide a spark against an overrated Jets defense that such powerhouses as Cincy, with a QB making his first start ever, and San Diego were able to have success against.
Yeah, the Dolphins O'line is average at best, but the Jets only have one sack in two games, and have proven they can be run on. Add the fact that MLB Cowart will miss this game in favor of the rookie Vilma, and I feel Miami will be able to move the football more accurately than they've shown, and put up around 17-20 points.
Which will put the onus (again) on the Miami defense. Pennington's been fantastic, and 53 year old Curtis Martin has had a lot of running room so far this year, but, again, I don't feel their quality of opponents has been an accurate barometer. The Dolphins run defense is ranked low, but this is due to their opponents milking the clock with leads, as shown by their league leading 103 run attempts against. But Zach Thomas and Seau should offer more resistance than the Jets saw their first two games.
Miami also has generated a nice pass rush this year with eight sacks already, and still have probably the best set of cornerbacks in football. Jets Pro Bowl C Mawae broke his hand last week and, if he plays, will probably be moved to guard Sunday, which could possibly create some flux in the NY line. I wouldn't expect anything stellar from either Pennington or Martin.
It's pretty much up in the air as to the winner, in my eyes, but I like the comfort zone 6.5 provides. Now, there are sevens out there. I don't hold accounts with these books, and I don't buy points, but I am happy with this number. If you are crazy like me and decide to take Miami, it's probably a good idea to wait til tomorrow afternoon. I will be on the road all morning, though, and see something like a 20-17 game either way, so I'm cool with 6.5.
Good luck,
Space.
