Week Four TRENCH Report: O & D Line Power Rankings: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=866302&highlight
Week Four YPPA - Previewing Week Four Using The Stat With The Highest Winning
Percentage: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=865869&highlight
Week Four Plays:
On today’s card there are two underdogs that should be favored. I am certain that both of these teams will win outright. Both fit into situational factors, perfectly. Both fit into motivational factors, perfectly. Both fit into perception factors, perfectly. Both fit into deception factors, perfectly. This is going to be a perfect, 2-0 day. I am making these both bigger then my standard Top Play and stepping up with two Best Bets. I am laying a little more then usual on these because I feel great about them.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-110) @ 5Dimes
Rating: Best Bet
Man how perception can get out of hand in a hurry. Buffalo is Cinderella. Cincinnati is those guys who stole eight pounds of weed. Buffalo is high fiving fans and beating New England straight up in extraordinary fashion. Cincinnati is booed off the field and losing to San Francisco 13-8. Buffalo is going on a miracle run to the Superbowl. Cincinnati is going on a booze run to the liquor store. The absolute truth is that everyone is in love with the Buffalo Bills, even the Buffalo Bills. I can’t remember the last time I have been able to put that in a sentence without laughing, but it is the truth. People can’t get enough. To see this team stroll into take on the NFL’s punch line (no, the Raiders, they are winning now) coming off an incredible comeback miracle win over God, err, Tom Brady and the Patriots and get a free hook at -3. Well, how can you not bet it!? Lock the doors, hide the children, hide the wife, back up the brinks truck to the bookies house, roll up a steak and mosey on down to Vegas. If you love the Bills as much as everyone else does this weekend, stop reading, I don’t want to ruin a good thing. If you want to make money this weekend, keep reading, Ill make you a believer in the NFL’s foster kids, the Cincinnati Bengals.
THREE KEYS TO WINNING HANDICAPPING - MOTIVATION, PERCEPTION, DECEPTION.
MOTIVATION -
If you don’t like me, if you don’t like my plays, so be it. There is one thing that you absolutely must take away from this if nothing else at all. Anytime you get a team winning SU at home then going on the road next week laying points, NEVER and I mean NEVER include that team in your plays. This is an even bigger rule when the team at home is strong defensively. The motivational factors for Cincinnati are OFF THE CHARTS today. This could not be a bigger let down game for Buffalo. Finishing just 4-12 a season ago, they kick off the year with a HUGE win in Kansas City. They then come home to a pocket full of fans with some belief and pull off a miracle win over the Raiders. Now there are murmers coming out from the nooks and cranny’s. Maybe this team has a chance, maybe this team is for real? Can we get by New England? Boom, 21-0 Patriots. Well, so much for that. Then like the cold grip of a winter breeze grabbing your nuts, the football gods turned the tables and Buffalo reaped in rewards of every possible bounce, tip, hop, skip and jump and somehow pulled off the inevitable and stormed back to win the game 34-31. Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Can you BILLeve it? At that very moment every sportscaster, fan and bookmaker began DROOLING over this team. You know what Chan Gailey, head coach for the Bills answer was to the question, “How do you get your team prepared coming off such a big win last week?” on ESPN Radio. “I don’t know, we just have to hope they come motivated.” We just have to hope! Head coach of a football team and we just have to hope! I think Chan is still drunk off the moonshine he was sipping on after that victory. As a head coach in the league, you have got to be certain that your team is prepared to play, and all he can do is hope! This is one of the youngest teams in the league. They have the most inexperienced offensive and defensive line in terms of start per player. So many times we look at the star players not being motivated to play. Well, not necessarily. In order for these star players to perform, they have to have a big effort individually. If Ryan Fitzpatrick is on, he is on, but in order to be on, he has to have the line in front of him ready to go. This requires all five guys to be on the same page and motivated to get every inch out of every play. Normally, I take stock into this factor, but not ultimately a deciding factor in my play. Today is a different story. What gets me thrilled about playing against teams in this spot is the home team with the good defense. What no one is seeming to mention is how good this Cincinnati defense really is. They rank third in total yards. Fifth against the pass. Seventh against the rush and 6th in points allowed. They also have a major advantage in D Line efficiency compared to Buffalo’s O Line efficiency. In these games the underdog is always influenced on how far it can run by the defensive effort. How fired up is the Cincinnati defense? They went into rival Cleveland to open the season and looked fantastic. They then went into Denver and held the Broncos to 17 points but crumbled late as the offense could not get the job done. They then came home for the home opener and stuck San Francisco to less then two touchdowns, but again could not get a performance from the offense. Everyone is talking about Buffalo. They are the team to beat. I guarantee you the Cincinnati defense is absolutely thrilled to get the chance to knock this team off and make a name for themselves today. Offense, I am not worried. Andy Dalton’s back to back 100.0 passer rating or better games were over shadowed by Cam Newton. He still has more TD passes then INT’s and has a great wide out in A.J. Green. He has a reliable tight end in Jermaine Grisham (a position Buffalo showed no interest in even trying to cover against NE). The offense will perform to the level needed, but the defense will 100% exceed expectations today. I expect this Buffalo team to come out flat, and downward spiral against the swarming, physical Bengals defensive unit.
PERCEPTION-
Look at the defences Buffalo has played so far this year. Kansas City, giving up a league worst 36.6 points per game. Oakland, ranked no better then 27th in any defensive category. New England, worst overall defense in the league. Buffalo has not seen defense yet. Period. They have not seen a defense yet. Sure what they did on paper looks great. Sure it was fun to watch. End of the day, all they did was out score other teams. The Bills HAVE NOT SEEN A DEFENSE BETTER THEN 26th yet! Everyone is LOADING up on stock in the Bills but what have they done? They went 3-0, best record in the league. Did they play the best games? Not a chance. This team is going to lose outright today. Lose at home to Philly next week. Lose in New York two weeks from now. Go on their bye week and come home to hang a 10 point spot on the board against the Redskins defense and then get absolutely CLEANED out by the Jets. Come week eight, were looking at a 3-5 maybe 4-4 football team. We just have not got a chance to see this team play a defense. Speaking of not playing defense, how about those Buffalo Bills? I know this paragraph is beginning to become confusing, so I can try sum it up. The Bills have not played an opponent with a defense higher then 26th ranked. The Bills themselves are ranked 26th defensively. Understand now? Buffalo went for 41 in week one against the Chiefs who scored three. Write-off. They then outscored an Oakland team who had to go cross country on a short week and ran out of gas in the second half to sneak out a victory. Like I said earlier they got every possible break against New England to win. Buffalo has given up the most points in the last two weeks by 18 points. They got lucky and were able to outscore opponents. You don’t win NFL games giving up 30+ points a game. End of story. The perception the Bills are a good well rounded team is way off.
DECEPTION-
You know when your driving home on the freeway and there is an old van with the hood up parked just out of the right lane on the side of the road and you don’t slow down, and think nothing of it only to get pulled over a mile up the road by a cop for speeding. The Buffalo Bills are that parked van on the side of the road today listed at -3. Parlays, teasers, straight bets. Oh, Buffalo -3, who are they playing…Cincinnati, BET. That’s kinda how this is going. Looking at this line you don’t think anything of it, you just bet. Had this line been 5.5, or 6. It would stop and make you think. Listed at 3, not so much. This line is flat, much like the Bills effort. Books are showing no interest in moving this line what so ever. Talking to a couple of bookmakers, they have taken close to 8 of every 10 bets in this game on Buffalo. This was second to only New Orleans which is almost exclusively all Saints action in terms of betting offset. The line is just sitting there and is so obvious and looks so good to take. It just makes me wonder how many points the Bengals are going to win by today and whether or not there is pleaser value. This line has gotten the action intended, and the result is going to be as intended too.
PREDICTION-
This game is all Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals will go as the defense goes. This total is calling for a 23-20 Bills victory, but I think that the result is flip flopped worst case scenario. To me this is a game that is dominated the entire way by Cincinnati. I see a 28-14 type of victory. The Bengals defense will get a score and force havoc all game long. We are going to see the Bills come out flat. Completely flat. There is nothing that shows me that this team will be up for this game what so ever. Especially with the Eagles coming into town next weekend. This is going to be a fun one guys, see you at the ticket window.
CINCINNATI 27 - BUFFALO 14
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals +1
Rating: Best Bet
Everyone has been reading for a while now, and if your not standing up slamming
your desk and shouting because your so READY FOR FOOTBALL, well bare with me, I will make this one quick.
This is literally the exact same scenario as the game above. Giants coming off an emotional road 13 point win against Rival Philadelphia as a big 9 point underdog and are now favored on the road in Arizona. With so many injuries you have to believe it is just a matter of time before this Giants team crumbles. They took advantage of a St. Louis team playing at 50% health and then took care of the Eagles only after Vick was knocked out of the game. This team was deciphered by Rex Grossman in week one and will be eaten alive by Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald today. Arizona had that early season win over Carolina at home then went away and lost a heart breaker in Washington and a snoozer in Seattle late. This team is not as bad as it looks and the Giants are not nearly as good as they looked. Until the Cardinals show me something horrific, I am not going to sell this team. There is no one in this Giants secondary that can cover Fitz, period. There is also not one linebacker who can match up with Todd Heap effectively. Justin Tuck is out and Osi is at best 60% if he plays, there will not be an effective pass rush from the Giants today. This spot I am backing today is murderous for road teams with no defense. The Giants are in a world of hurt as Arizona should have an extremely prolific offensive day. This line is very sneaky laying at 1. It is getting a lot of Giants action. Info I have received this morning is pointing in the upwards of 6 of 8 bets on New York. This line has not fluttered up or down all week. Both these teams finish .500 after this is said and done.
ARIZONA 24 NEW YORK 20
Other plays on the day…
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -6 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
Cam Newton, it was fun while it lasted. Too much film and too strong a defense. First big road test for Newton, adios.
Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -12 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
Packers hold the biggest O/D Line efficiency rating difference then any other team in the league over their opponent.
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Play: Over 44.5 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
Two top 15 offensive lines against the two worst defensive lines in football today. Each team gets three touchdowns plus a couple more as this goes into the 50’s.
Week Four YPPA - Previewing Week Four Using The Stat With The Highest Winning
Percentage: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=865869&highlight
Week Four Plays:
On today’s card there are two underdogs that should be favored. I am certain that both of these teams will win outright. Both fit into situational factors, perfectly. Both fit into motivational factors, perfectly. Both fit into perception factors, perfectly. Both fit into deception factors, perfectly. This is going to be a perfect, 2-0 day. I am making these both bigger then my standard Top Play and stepping up with two Best Bets. I am laying a little more then usual on these because I feel great about them.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-110) @ 5Dimes
Rating: Best Bet
Man how perception can get out of hand in a hurry. Buffalo is Cinderella. Cincinnati is those guys who stole eight pounds of weed. Buffalo is high fiving fans and beating New England straight up in extraordinary fashion. Cincinnati is booed off the field and losing to San Francisco 13-8. Buffalo is going on a miracle run to the Superbowl. Cincinnati is going on a booze run to the liquor store. The absolute truth is that everyone is in love with the Buffalo Bills, even the Buffalo Bills. I can’t remember the last time I have been able to put that in a sentence without laughing, but it is the truth. People can’t get enough. To see this team stroll into take on the NFL’s punch line (no, the Raiders, they are winning now) coming off an incredible comeback miracle win over God, err, Tom Brady and the Patriots and get a free hook at -3. Well, how can you not bet it!? Lock the doors, hide the children, hide the wife, back up the brinks truck to the bookies house, roll up a steak and mosey on down to Vegas. If you love the Bills as much as everyone else does this weekend, stop reading, I don’t want to ruin a good thing. If you want to make money this weekend, keep reading, Ill make you a believer in the NFL’s foster kids, the Cincinnati Bengals.
THREE KEYS TO WINNING HANDICAPPING - MOTIVATION, PERCEPTION, DECEPTION.
MOTIVATION -
If you don’t like me, if you don’t like my plays, so be it. There is one thing that you absolutely must take away from this if nothing else at all. Anytime you get a team winning SU at home then going on the road next week laying points, NEVER and I mean NEVER include that team in your plays. This is an even bigger rule when the team at home is strong defensively. The motivational factors for Cincinnati are OFF THE CHARTS today. This could not be a bigger let down game for Buffalo. Finishing just 4-12 a season ago, they kick off the year with a HUGE win in Kansas City. They then come home to a pocket full of fans with some belief and pull off a miracle win over the Raiders. Now there are murmers coming out from the nooks and cranny’s. Maybe this team has a chance, maybe this team is for real? Can we get by New England? Boom, 21-0 Patriots. Well, so much for that. Then like the cold grip of a winter breeze grabbing your nuts, the football gods turned the tables and Buffalo reaped in rewards of every possible bounce, tip, hop, skip and jump and somehow pulled off the inevitable and stormed back to win the game 34-31. Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Can you BILLeve it? At that very moment every sportscaster, fan and bookmaker began DROOLING over this team. You know what Chan Gailey, head coach for the Bills answer was to the question, “How do you get your team prepared coming off such a big win last week?” on ESPN Radio. “I don’t know, we just have to hope they come motivated.” We just have to hope! Head coach of a football team and we just have to hope! I think Chan is still drunk off the moonshine he was sipping on after that victory. As a head coach in the league, you have got to be certain that your team is prepared to play, and all he can do is hope! This is one of the youngest teams in the league. They have the most inexperienced offensive and defensive line in terms of start per player. So many times we look at the star players not being motivated to play. Well, not necessarily. In order for these star players to perform, they have to have a big effort individually. If Ryan Fitzpatrick is on, he is on, but in order to be on, he has to have the line in front of him ready to go. This requires all five guys to be on the same page and motivated to get every inch out of every play. Normally, I take stock into this factor, but not ultimately a deciding factor in my play. Today is a different story. What gets me thrilled about playing against teams in this spot is the home team with the good defense. What no one is seeming to mention is how good this Cincinnati defense really is. They rank third in total yards. Fifth against the pass. Seventh against the rush and 6th in points allowed. They also have a major advantage in D Line efficiency compared to Buffalo’s O Line efficiency. In these games the underdog is always influenced on how far it can run by the defensive effort. How fired up is the Cincinnati defense? They went into rival Cleveland to open the season and looked fantastic. They then went into Denver and held the Broncos to 17 points but crumbled late as the offense could not get the job done. They then came home for the home opener and stuck San Francisco to less then two touchdowns, but again could not get a performance from the offense. Everyone is talking about Buffalo. They are the team to beat. I guarantee you the Cincinnati defense is absolutely thrilled to get the chance to knock this team off and make a name for themselves today. Offense, I am not worried. Andy Dalton’s back to back 100.0 passer rating or better games were over shadowed by Cam Newton. He still has more TD passes then INT’s and has a great wide out in A.J. Green. He has a reliable tight end in Jermaine Grisham (a position Buffalo showed no interest in even trying to cover against NE). The offense will perform to the level needed, but the defense will 100% exceed expectations today. I expect this Buffalo team to come out flat, and downward spiral against the swarming, physical Bengals defensive unit.
PERCEPTION-
Look at the defences Buffalo has played so far this year. Kansas City, giving up a league worst 36.6 points per game. Oakland, ranked no better then 27th in any defensive category. New England, worst overall defense in the league. Buffalo has not seen defense yet. Period. They have not seen a defense yet. Sure what they did on paper looks great. Sure it was fun to watch. End of the day, all they did was out score other teams. The Bills HAVE NOT SEEN A DEFENSE BETTER THEN 26th yet! Everyone is LOADING up on stock in the Bills but what have they done? They went 3-0, best record in the league. Did they play the best games? Not a chance. This team is going to lose outright today. Lose at home to Philly next week. Lose in New York two weeks from now. Go on their bye week and come home to hang a 10 point spot on the board against the Redskins defense and then get absolutely CLEANED out by the Jets. Come week eight, were looking at a 3-5 maybe 4-4 football team. We just have not got a chance to see this team play a defense. Speaking of not playing defense, how about those Buffalo Bills? I know this paragraph is beginning to become confusing, so I can try sum it up. The Bills have not played an opponent with a defense higher then 26th ranked. The Bills themselves are ranked 26th defensively. Understand now? Buffalo went for 41 in week one against the Chiefs who scored three. Write-off. They then outscored an Oakland team who had to go cross country on a short week and ran out of gas in the second half to sneak out a victory. Like I said earlier they got every possible break against New England to win. Buffalo has given up the most points in the last two weeks by 18 points. They got lucky and were able to outscore opponents. You don’t win NFL games giving up 30+ points a game. End of story. The perception the Bills are a good well rounded team is way off.
DECEPTION-
You know when your driving home on the freeway and there is an old van with the hood up parked just out of the right lane on the side of the road and you don’t slow down, and think nothing of it only to get pulled over a mile up the road by a cop for speeding. The Buffalo Bills are that parked van on the side of the road today listed at -3. Parlays, teasers, straight bets. Oh, Buffalo -3, who are they playing…Cincinnati, BET. That’s kinda how this is going. Looking at this line you don’t think anything of it, you just bet. Had this line been 5.5, or 6. It would stop and make you think. Listed at 3, not so much. This line is flat, much like the Bills effort. Books are showing no interest in moving this line what so ever. Talking to a couple of bookmakers, they have taken close to 8 of every 10 bets in this game on Buffalo. This was second to only New Orleans which is almost exclusively all Saints action in terms of betting offset. The line is just sitting there and is so obvious and looks so good to take. It just makes me wonder how many points the Bengals are going to win by today and whether or not there is pleaser value. This line has gotten the action intended, and the result is going to be as intended too.
PREDICTION-
This game is all Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals will go as the defense goes. This total is calling for a 23-20 Bills victory, but I think that the result is flip flopped worst case scenario. To me this is a game that is dominated the entire way by Cincinnati. I see a 28-14 type of victory. The Bengals defense will get a score and force havoc all game long. We are going to see the Bills come out flat. Completely flat. There is nothing that shows me that this team will be up for this game what so ever. Especially with the Eagles coming into town next weekend. This is going to be a fun one guys, see you at the ticket window.
CINCINNATI 27 - BUFFALO 14
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals +1
Rating: Best Bet
Everyone has been reading for a while now, and if your not standing up slamming
your desk and shouting because your so READY FOR FOOTBALL, well bare with me, I will make this one quick.
This is literally the exact same scenario as the game above. Giants coming off an emotional road 13 point win against Rival Philadelphia as a big 9 point underdog and are now favored on the road in Arizona. With so many injuries you have to believe it is just a matter of time before this Giants team crumbles. They took advantage of a St. Louis team playing at 50% health and then took care of the Eagles only after Vick was knocked out of the game. This team was deciphered by Rex Grossman in week one and will be eaten alive by Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald today. Arizona had that early season win over Carolina at home then went away and lost a heart breaker in Washington and a snoozer in Seattle late. This team is not as bad as it looks and the Giants are not nearly as good as they looked. Until the Cardinals show me something horrific, I am not going to sell this team. There is no one in this Giants secondary that can cover Fitz, period. There is also not one linebacker who can match up with Todd Heap effectively. Justin Tuck is out and Osi is at best 60% if he plays, there will not be an effective pass rush from the Giants today. This spot I am backing today is murderous for road teams with no defense. The Giants are in a world of hurt as Arizona should have an extremely prolific offensive day. This line is very sneaky laying at 1. It is getting a lot of Giants action. Info I have received this morning is pointing in the upwards of 6 of 8 bets on New York. This line has not fluttered up or down all week. Both these teams finish .500 after this is said and done.
ARIZONA 24 NEW YORK 20
Other plays on the day…
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -6 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
Cam Newton, it was fun while it lasted. Too much film and too strong a defense. First big road test for Newton, adios.
Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -12 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
Packers hold the biggest O/D Line efficiency rating difference then any other team in the league over their opponent.
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Play: Over 44.5 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
Two top 15 offensive lines against the two worst defensive lines in football today. Each team gets three touchdowns plus a couple more as this goes into the 50’s.
