Pinny has started putting up props on TV shows, and can be both entertaining and profitable to bet on them! Apparently people have bet up some big favorites, and there's good value in some underdogs. Reasonable analysis for some decent +200 chances below, plus one big favorite.
1) Ugly Betty vs. Shark - Value in Shark
Currently -210/+180, Ugly Betty is favored strongly here. It has the edge on Shark, but shouldn't be that huge of a favorite. UB has gone from 16.1 viewers down to 14.2, and will likely drop more in its 3rd week. Shark has gotten 14.9, 14.7, and 13.8. It looks like it has already experienced the initial dropoff, and may hold steadier this week.
The question is how much UB drops off, and if it drops even half of it's Week 1 to Week 2 loss of almost 2 mil, then it would get 13.2, which Shark has a solid chance at beating. I'd estimate that the UB edge should be like 55-45, maybe 60-40 tops.
That means that Shark is a good value bet down somewhere into the +120 to +150 range.
2) Grey's Anatomy vs. CSI - Value in CSI
Currently -210/+180. Grey's definitely looks overvalued here, since CSI and Grey's have split the lead each week. CSI: 15.40 (repeat), 22.0, 23.5, 21.2. Grey's: 7.41 (repeat), 25.1, 23.3, 22.5. So we see that CSI has a larger regular audience from the repeats, but Grey's is having a great new season, from the extra Sunday promotion at the beginning, which has faded. CSI won a week, then Grey's won, then CSI, then Grey's.
So these 2 have shown they each can win on any given week. Grey's got off to a good start, but has less of a base, and has faded every week. CSI has a strong base, and has gone up and down a little each week. If Grey's fades again, as is likely, CSI could fade less or even increase. I'd give Grey's the same 55-45 edge, perhaps 60-40 at most.
So again, there is a lot of value in the underdog, with CSI being a good value bet down somewhere into the +120 to +150 range.
3) ER vs. Shark - Value in Shark
Currently -260/+230. As discussed above, Shark may have underdog value ER has posted 15.6, 14.3, and 14.6. No apparent trend, but could get near 14 or sub-14, while Shark could also get near 14. So ER obvious fave, but at +200 and better, good value in Shark.
Shark is a good value bet imo down somewhere into the +170 to +200 range.
4) New York/St. Louis MLB game vs. Smallville - Value in MLB
MLB -2.5 vs. Smallville at -250/+220 currently. Here is the one favorite I like, after seeing value in the underdogs. The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals are popular teams, with the Mets having a huge market. Smallville is fading. Smallville has posted 5.0 and 4.6, declining from the premiere. The audience is smaller than last year (5.7), so it's a shrinking show.
Meanwhile, the MLB game for the last 2 years has posted strong figures in this spot. The NLCS series determines the winner of the National League to go to the World Series, so there is obvious interest. The past 2 years, it has been Houston vs. St. Louis, and has posted an 8.7 and 8.5. With the New York market being bigger than Houston, this should be even higher this year.
But we don't even need it to be higher, or even the same. Smallville at 4.6 (even if it doesn't decline) + 2.5 is 7.1. As long as the MLB game clears 7.1, the MLB game is a winner. The last couple years' MLB games have cleared that by 1.5 million, over 20%. And it should be even higher this year. So MLB is an easy favorite, into atmospheric range.
I don't even know if Smallville has a 20% chance, maybe more like 10%. Smallville would have to somehow beat its season premiere, and simultaneously have the MLB game lose a substantial portion of its audience, even though the teams are bigger market teams with more viewing interest.
MLB should be the winner, with value up to perhaps -400. (I know that sounds high, but someone please show me how Smallville has better than a 20% chance of winning.)
1) Ugly Betty vs. Shark - Value in Shark
Currently -210/+180, Ugly Betty is favored strongly here. It has the edge on Shark, but shouldn't be that huge of a favorite. UB has gone from 16.1 viewers down to 14.2, and will likely drop more in its 3rd week. Shark has gotten 14.9, 14.7, and 13.8. It looks like it has already experienced the initial dropoff, and may hold steadier this week.
The question is how much UB drops off, and if it drops even half of it's Week 1 to Week 2 loss of almost 2 mil, then it would get 13.2, which Shark has a solid chance at beating. I'd estimate that the UB edge should be like 55-45, maybe 60-40 tops.
That means that Shark is a good value bet down somewhere into the +120 to +150 range.
2) Grey's Anatomy vs. CSI - Value in CSI
Currently -210/+180. Grey's definitely looks overvalued here, since CSI and Grey's have split the lead each week. CSI: 15.40 (repeat), 22.0, 23.5, 21.2. Grey's: 7.41 (repeat), 25.1, 23.3, 22.5. So we see that CSI has a larger regular audience from the repeats, but Grey's is having a great new season, from the extra Sunday promotion at the beginning, which has faded. CSI won a week, then Grey's won, then CSI, then Grey's.
So these 2 have shown they each can win on any given week. Grey's got off to a good start, but has less of a base, and has faded every week. CSI has a strong base, and has gone up and down a little each week. If Grey's fades again, as is likely, CSI could fade less or even increase. I'd give Grey's the same 55-45 edge, perhaps 60-40 at most.
So again, there is a lot of value in the underdog, with CSI being a good value bet down somewhere into the +120 to +150 range.
3) ER vs. Shark - Value in Shark
Currently -260/+230. As discussed above, Shark may have underdog value ER has posted 15.6, 14.3, and 14.6. No apparent trend, but could get near 14 or sub-14, while Shark could also get near 14. So ER obvious fave, but at +200 and better, good value in Shark.
Shark is a good value bet imo down somewhere into the +170 to +200 range.
4) New York/St. Louis MLB game vs. Smallville - Value in MLB
MLB -2.5 vs. Smallville at -250/+220 currently. Here is the one favorite I like, after seeing value in the underdogs. The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals are popular teams, with the Mets having a huge market. Smallville is fading. Smallville has posted 5.0 and 4.6, declining from the premiere. The audience is smaller than last year (5.7), so it's a shrinking show.
Meanwhile, the MLB game for the last 2 years has posted strong figures in this spot. The NLCS series determines the winner of the National League to go to the World Series, so there is obvious interest. The past 2 years, it has been Houston vs. St. Louis, and has posted an 8.7 and 8.5. With the New York market being bigger than Houston, this should be even higher this year.
But we don't even need it to be higher, or even the same. Smallville at 4.6 (even if it doesn't decline) + 2.5 is 7.1. As long as the MLB game clears 7.1, the MLB game is a winner. The last couple years' MLB games have cleared that by 1.5 million, over 20%. And it should be even higher this year. So MLB is an easy favorite, into atmospheric range.
I don't even know if Smallville has a 20% chance, maybe more like 10%. Smallville would have to somehow beat its season premiere, and simultaneously have the MLB game lose a substantial portion of its audience, even though the teams are bigger market teams with more viewing interest.
MLB should be the winner, with value up to perhaps -400. (I know that sounds high, but someone please show me how Smallville has better than a 20% chance of winning.)
