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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Here's the way I see it and why:</st1lace></st1:City>
<st1:City><st1lace></st1lace></st1:City>
<st1:City><st1lace>Indianapolis</st1lace></st1:City> Colts @ Detriot Lions
SPREAD EXPLANATION:<o></o>
<o></o>
4 games in 18 days for the Colts, Turkey Day and Barry Sanders for the Lions, <st1:City><st1lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City>’s Thanksgiving history ... it doesn't matter. The Colts are hittin' on all cylinders and the Lions couldn't tame a housecat at the moment.
Detriot struggled to score against <st1:City><st1lace>Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> and <st1:State><st1lace>Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State>, who don't have the greatest defenses in the league and were without key offensive personnel (Leftwich and Moss), meaning each game wouldn’t have been as close as what they were. If you exclude Drummond's 3 PR's, the Lions scored a total of 15 points over those 2 games.
Indy has scored 90 points over their last 2 games against average to good defensive teams in Houston and Chicago. The Colts sport a +12 turnover margin and have a net 57 yard rushing advantage over the Lions. They have the better offense by a large margin (18 teams by my calculation) and a defense that that is worse overall compared to the Lions (7 teams by my calculation), but that difference does not outweigh the offensive margin
TAKE: COLTS -9
TOTALS EXPLANATION:
<st1:State><st1lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> averages 28.5 ppg Offense on the road (League Standard Deviation = 5.2 ppg)
<st1:State><st1lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> averages 26.5 ppg Defense on the road (League St Dev = 5.6 ppg)
DET averages 15.2 ppg Offense at home (League St Dev = 6.2 ppg)
DET averages 25.2 ppg Defense at home (League St Dev = 4.5 ppg)
<st1:State><st1lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 33.7
<st1:State><st1lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 23.3
<st1:State><st1lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 32.1
<st1:State><st1lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 20.9
DET Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 21.4
DET Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 9.0
DET Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 29.7
DET Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 20.7
Predicted Total = 48 Pts
Only one situation produces a total over 54 pts - when the offenses and defenses of both teams perform at + 1 St Dev (58 pts). All other combinations result in a total of less than 54 pts (44, 52, and 37 pts).
TAKE: UNDER 54
<st1:City><st1lace></st1lace></st1:City>
<st1:City><st1lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> Bears @ Dallas
SPREAD EXPLANATION:
The Bears have won 3 of their last 4 games and have settled in with their rookie QB. The Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 7 games following their Week 3 bye and will have to adjust to a new rookie QB.
The Bears have the turnover advantage by a large margin and have performed better on the road this year in terms of their offensive output and margin of victory.
The Cowboys sport slight advantages in net rushing yards, net first downs and net third down efficiency. <st1:City><st1lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> has the better defense and turnover advantage, while <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> owns a slightly better offense.
TAKE: BEARS +3.5
TOTALS EXPLANATION:
DAL averages 20.2 ppg Offense at home (League St Dev = 6.2 ppg
DAL averages 26.4 ppg Defense at home (League St Dev = 4.5 ppg)
CHI averages 19.4 ppg Offense on the road (League St Dev = 5.2 ppg)
CHI averages 18.8 ppg Defense on the road (League St Dev = 5.6 ppg)
DAL Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 26.4
DAL Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 14.0
DAL Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 30.9
DAL Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 21.9
CHI Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 24.6
CHI Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 14.2
CHI Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 29.7
CHI Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 20.7
Predicted Total = 42 Pts
Only one situation produces a total under 36 pts - when the offenses and defenses of both teams perform at - 1 St Dev (32 pts). All other combinations result in a total of more than 36 pts (40, 45, 53 pts).
TAKE: OVER 36<o></o>
<o></o>
<o>GL to everyone. Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving.</o>
<o></o>
<o>J. </o>
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Here's the way I see it and why:</st1lace></st1:City><st1:City><st1
lace></st1lace></st1:City><st1:City><st1
lace>Indianapolis</st1lace></st1:City> Colts @ Detriot LionsSPREAD EXPLANATION:<o
></o><o
></o>4 games in 18 days for the Colts, Turkey Day and Barry Sanders for the Lions, <st1:City><st1
lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City>’s Thanksgiving history ... it doesn't matter. The Colts are hittin' on all cylinders and the Lions couldn't tame a housecat at the moment. Detriot struggled to score against <st1:City><st1
lace>Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> and <st1:State><st1lace>Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State>, who don't have the greatest defenses in the league and were without key offensive personnel (Leftwich and Moss), meaning each game wouldn’t have been as close as what they were. If you exclude Drummond's 3 PR's, the Lions scored a total of 15 points over those 2 games. Indy has scored 90 points over their last 2 games against average to good defensive teams in Houston and Chicago. The Colts sport a +12 turnover margin and have a net 57 yard rushing advantage over the Lions. They have the better offense by a large margin (18 teams by my calculation) and a defense that that is worse overall compared to the Lions (7 teams by my calculation), but that difference does not outweigh the offensive margin
TAKE: COLTS -9
TOTALS EXPLANATION:
<st1:State><st1
lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> averages 28.5 ppg Offense on the road (League Standard Deviation = 5.2 ppg) <st1:State><st1
lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> averages 26.5 ppg Defense on the road (League St Dev = 5.6 ppg)DET averages 15.2 ppg Offense at home (League St Dev = 6.2 ppg)
DET averages 25.2 ppg Defense at home (League St Dev = 4.5 ppg)
<st1:State><st1
lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 33.7<st1:State><st1
lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 23.3<st1:State><st1
lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 32.1<st1:State><st1
lace>IND</st1lace></st1:State> Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 20.9DET Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 21.4
DET Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 9.0
DET Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 29.7
DET Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 20.7
Predicted Total = 48 Pts
Only one situation produces a total over 54 pts - when the offenses and defenses of both teams perform at + 1 St Dev (58 pts). All other combinations result in a total of less than 54 pts (44, 52, and 37 pts).
TAKE: UNDER 54
<st1:City><st1
lace></st1lace></st1:City><st1:City><st1
lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> Bears @ Dallas SPREAD EXPLANATION:
The Bears have won 3 of their last 4 games and have settled in with their rookie QB. The Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 7 games following their Week 3 bye and will have to adjust to a new rookie QB.
The Bears have the turnover advantage by a large margin and have performed better on the road this year in terms of their offensive output and margin of victory.
The Cowboys sport slight advantages in net rushing yards, net first downs and net third down efficiency. <st1:City><st1
lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> has the better defense and turnover advantage, while <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> owns a slightly better offense. TAKE: BEARS +3.5
TOTALS EXPLANATION:
DAL averages 20.2 ppg Offense at home (League St Dev = 6.2 ppg
DAL averages 26.4 ppg Defense at home (League St Dev = 4.5 ppg)
CHI averages 19.4 ppg Offense on the road (League St Dev = 5.2 ppg)
CHI averages 18.8 ppg Defense on the road (League St Dev = 5.6 ppg)
DAL Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 26.4
DAL Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 14.0
DAL Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 30.9
DAL Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 21.9
CHI Off Avg + 1 St Dev = 24.6
CHI Off Avg – 1 St Dev = 14.2
CHI Def Avg + 1 St Dev = 29.7
CHI Def Avg – 1 St Dev = 20.7
Predicted Total = 42 Pts
Only one situation produces a total under 36 pts - when the offenses and defenses of both teams perform at - 1 St Dev (32 pts). All other combinations result in a total of more than 36 pts (40, 45, 53 pts).
TAKE: OVER 36<o
></o><o
></o><o
>GL to everyone. Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving.</o><o
></o><o
>J. </o>
