TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN AMERICAN LEAGUE HI-ROLLER
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 7 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Detroit Tigers +127
View Analysis
PLAY: Detroit Tigers +127 (good to +110)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Canning and Norris
(921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Detroit Tigers
No. Yada, yada, yada prospect is making his debut, or start shortly after his first big boy experience, is forever a fade regardless of whom he faces and what kind of offense supports him in the batters box.,
Griffin Canning, the Angels No. Yada prospect, is making the second MLB start of his young career, and he does so against an offense that has some stale April numbers. That said, the Tigers have found their mojo at the plate in May, and while they have little to no power in their lineup, the team has a high baseball IQ and know how to approach, attack if you will, a rookie pitcher.
Canning surrendered three runs in just over four innings of work in his debut, walking one and striking out six. His opposition in his debut> The one team that has the ability to be no hit in any game and against any pitcher. Canning was unable to do such short of five innings of work.
Canning was perfect through three innings, but then allowed three runs in the fourth and was able to only record a single out in the fifth. Canning was successful registering swings and misses and limiting hard contact. However note that this is what the Jays lineup offers on most nights, nearly every night, e.g. last night with my Big Ticket play on the Twins at the old Skye Dome.
Tigers young left-hander Danny Norris doesn't get the credit due him. Norris tossed five innings of one-run ball last Wednesday in pitcher-friendly Philly against a hard hitting lineup... albeit one that prefers to be pitched to by right-handers.
And as I mentioned in this analysis the Ron Gardenhire Louisville Sluggers have come to life in the Motor City.
Norris is one of those still young southpaws that has worlds of talent. But talent alone doesn't earn you wins or paychecks in Major League Baseball. Norris continues to improve his command and when this transition goes into Major League mode Norris will be that above average lefty that teams desire... if for nothing more than being a quality lefty.
Norris has tossed only 282 innings in the majors over five seasons. His career-best 10.4 K/9 rate last year makes him a uber difficult matchup for the Angels. This LA lineup is slashing an embarrassing .204/.293/.342 versus southpaws. And as a team have hit just 11 home runs in nearly 350 at-bats.
The Tigers lefty has shown flashes of his talent and it typically shines when he is commanding his pitch array.
The pub that Canning has received finds him and his Angels crew with an inflated money-line. The Tigers should be the -130 favorite in this Motor City event, not a rookie pitcher working only his second career start.
DETROIT TIGERS +127
FINN TUE NL CENTRAL HI-ROLLER
Game: (903) Philadelphia Phillies at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: May 7 2019 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider:
Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -111
View Analysis
PLAY: Philadelphia Phillies -111 (good to -130)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Nola and Hudson
(903) Philadelphia Phillies at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
Nola scattered seven hits while walking three and striking out six across 5.2 innings Wednesday against Detroit. The three walks were the only over-the-top negative for Nola in the outing. The Tigers of 2019 are not your father’s Detroit lineup that created as much hard contact as any in the league but it was his second consecutive outing that offered evidence that he is regaining his elite form.
Nola went 6.2 innings two starts back allowing a single run and one walk while punching out four versus the Marlins. Not only is Detroit's lineup far removed from the Bronx Bombers it applies to the Marlins even more so. Miami ranks 27th in wRC+ this season... meaning they are not going to put up a large percentage of crooked numbers on the scoreboard.,
Nola's ERA is nearly two run higher than his xFIP and in his last two starts his fourseam velocity is where it was a season ago. The Phily right-hander is healthy and is regaining the form that issued him mound command comparisons to Hall of Famers Greg Maddux.
Dakota Hudson is a fringe starter at this point of his career. Even in a pedestrian and injured Cardinals rotation. Hudson received accolades for his outing against Washington last week. And while just glancing at his overall numbers, and his stats from his last turn, it is the opposition in the boxscores that makes more news. Hudson worked 6 innings, allowed four hits, walked two and punched out seven. Hudson is a work in progress. Those who are high on the right-handed Cardinals pitcher are likely St Louis fans. The Redbirds fringe starter has been messing with his new and old pitchers, his grip and as a result has scuffled with his command.
Hudson’s assets are three-fold. First he is a relative unknown. And secondly because of such his 21% chase rate is solid -- but will regress. Thirdly the right-hander's 88% in zone contact rate is well above the league average. And as a result Hudson is the quintessential starting pitcher that is uber dependent on batted ball luck. And in conclusion if the scheduled home plate umpire when Hudson is on the mound is hitter friendly then the young righty will operate with a high pitch count.
Tuesday night finds pitcher-friendly Jeff Nelson scheduled to call balls and strikes which benefits both starters. There is, however, no comparing the two Tuesday night starters. Nola is coming off a Cy Young like season. Hudson is still trying to figure out which foot to use to push off the rubber.
The Cardinals right handed and left-handed pitching against dichotomy is credulous. The Cardinals rank as the No. 5 team in all of baseball in offensive efficiency... versus right-handed pitching. Versus lefties they are a sinking lifeboat batting .218 with a mere seven home runs in over 200 at-bats.
The Phillies are slashing .249/..340/.428 against right-handed pitching.
Put a right-hander on the mound against this Phillies lineup and Katie bar the door. The PHils are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games against pitchers that pitch to contact, e.g. have a WHIP of 1.30 or larger. And Philly is 5-1 in their last 6 games in games versus right-handed starters.
The Cardinals team ERA is a lofty 4.36 on the season. The Cardinals pen sports a 3.96 ERA. The early season scuffles of the Philly starters don't hold a candle to that of the Cardinals. And despite Nola's in orbit earned run average, as noted, his xFIP is nearly two runs lower, and the Phils check in with an ERA, team ERA mind you, just over 4.00 runs per game.
The NL Central is everything but a hub for elite pitching. Positioning the Cardinals as the team with the best starting pitching top to bottom speaks more to that of the Cubs and Brewers as opposed to venting about the pedestrian talents of the Redbirds. It is noteworthy that when evaluating the overall talent among the divisions starters. St Louis doesn't have a single starter with an ERA under 4.10.
At this point of the season titling Jack Flaherty as the current five's best is... nothing short of concerning. Flaherty has been inconsistent and is extremely dependent on missing bats. Flaherty has 23 strikeouts in his past three starts and has surrendered seven earned runs in total across 189.2 innings. And in those frames the Cards right-hander has walked six and allowed four home runs.
The Cards former closer and ace Wainwright is an innings eater that desperately needs 5 runs from the Cardinals offense to survive five innings. Michael Wacha can’t throw strikes and sports a 6.03 BB/9IP rate. And MLB pundits slobbered over prospect Hudson this offseason leaving Hudson in a can't win situation because of inexperience. And the league has figured the Greek, Miles Mikolas, making not a single arm in the Cardinals rotation making one believe any of them can go out and shutdown a quality offensive lineup. .
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -111
FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (7-2)
Game: (907) San Francisco Giants at (908) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: May 7 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco Giants -102
View Analysis
PLAY: San Fran Giants -102 (good to -120)
4% game rating
LIST STARTERS: Bumgarner and Senzatela
(907) San Francisco Giants at (908) Colorado Rockies
It has taken hard work and the willingness to change, a difficult hurdle for a large number of professional Diva's that live in a starting pitcher roll. In this case Bumgarner had done all of the aforementioned, as much as an old-school cowboy can, and has morphed himself into a starting pitcher that can morph from wind up and reach nearly 93 mph with his four seamer or finesse hitters.
Bumgarner has done what most don't have to do at 20-years of age and that is reinvent himself. Bumgarner was as close to having elite peripherals as any will be without actually being such. And MadBum registered a 2.6 or more fWAR from 2011 to 2016.
While he spent the first month of the season working installing a new and improved grip (stronger) into his arsenal the backwash to doing such was suffering with command issues. Bumgarner is in the top 90 percentile in spin rate with nearly all of his pitches, but is so with his curve ball.
Bumgarner had an average fastball spin rate of 2141 RPMs, which ranked him well below league average. His secondary pitches, e.g. breaking balls, had an average spin rate of 2327, well below average.
The Giants southpaw is throwing harder and has more movement within the strike zone with his entire four-pitch arsenal than he did during his golden campaigns, between 2011 and 2016.
The change he made this offseason was increasing the pressure, strength if you will, with his grip. And as a result has an above average spin rate on his fastball. And again his breaking ball spin rate is in the 90 percentile of the league.
Bum's last start was easily his most impressive of the 2019 campaign. And Buster Posey called his stuff the best he has seen at any point in his career. That start came against the Los Angeles Dodgers Murders Row. The San Fran lefty worked six innings allowing four hits and one earned run. He walked two while striking out eight.
The result is that Bumgarner, back at full strength and with a better idea of what works, is hitting new heights in an area the game didn't pay attention to when he broke into the big leagues. The spin rate on his sinker is up more than 300 rpms from last year and is in the 90th percentile for pitchers, according to Baseball Savant. His signature cutter, which spun at 2,192 rpms two years ago and 2,129 in 2018, is up to 2,453. His curveball is about 250 rpms better than his previous high.
Then there's the stat we've long associated with pitchers. Bumgarner traditionally has picked up velocity as the season goes on, and at 90.9 mph, his average fastball velocity in April isn't far off the 91.2 he put up in the first month of 2016, his last healthy season.
Bumgarner owned a 4.30 ERA entering May. And that came with opposing lineups, hitters, that put the ball in play with runners in scoring position, BABIP, at the worst rate of any pitcher in the big boy league, with a ridiculous .570. That is not a mistake by my keyboard. Yes, .570. The league average in the BABIP container is .315.
And while Bumgarner has to be accountable for his BABIP and his ERA he has suffered some misfortune. This being seeing eye ground balls that resulted in singles and soft contact that are best described as Texas Leaguers.
In a nutshell his matchup against the Rockies at Coors Field on Tuesday night is extremely favorable despite Bumgarners flyball tendencies.
The Rockies do not throw a lineup at their opponent that is going to scare even the most inexperienced mound rookies. When the Colorado offense ranks outside of the Top-5 in home venue batting average, OBP, Slugging and OPS, it speaks to the capability of the bats in play.
The Rockies send their fifth starter, a work in progress right-handed youngster, that tops out at nearly 95 mph. However, it is a young pitcher that doesn't have a reliable secondary pitch, or pitches. And without a slider, cutter or change to compliment the four-seamer good, capable and experienced hitters simply sit on the fastball that arrives in their hot zone.
Colorado sends Senzatela to the hill to oppose Bumgarner. And while the Giants offensive is much like that of the Rockies, lacking power and above average exit velocity, the No. 1 versus the rookie No. 5 starters in this mismatch, offer the former World Series MVP a significant advantage.
Senzatela will eventually become a reliable starter if he can develop a complimentary pitch to sit next to his heater. The Roks right-hander's fastball is in play. However, his curve, slider and changeup, quality offerings mind you, are a must have if the tall lanky hard throwing right-hander is to ever be more than a middling big league starter with a high ERA because of pitching half of his games at Coors.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -102
