Tuesday Service Play Thread 11/09/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[BuzzKill]

Cal Sport

Game: (603) Southern Illinois at (604) Arkansas Little Rock
Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 6:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: Southern Illinois -6.5 (-110)
We not only have a So Illinois squad with all 5 returning starters back BUT be add in JD Mulia who was the #24 JUCO player 2Y ago who missed last season with an injury and Ben Coupet who averaged Double-Digit the L2Y for THIS Little Rock squad. The Salukis return 97% of their scoring and they have SIX players with 500+ career points. Little Rock was picked 10th of 12 teams in the Sun Belt coming off an 11-15 season with three returning starters! I make this line So Illinois -12 and it was VERY CLOSE to being an opening night 5% TOP PLAY!!

 

[bribux]

nbaundertips net

Los Angeles Clippers – Portland Trail Blazers
Under 221

 

[bribux]

overpicks eu

Brasil – Serie B
Operario – Remo
Under 2

 

[bribux]

nbaclub

Philadelphia 76ers - Milwaukee Bucks
Over 222

 

[BuzzKill]

Kevin Dolan

C% Game (101) Buffalo at (102) Miami Ohio Play: Buffalo +7.0 (-105)

 

[BuzzKill]

romariobtts

CHILE: Primera Division
S. Wanderers – Curico Unido
Both to score : YES
Odds : 1.90

 

[BuzzKill]

bet-my-ticket

Athletico – PR-Ceara : Over 2 @ 1.72
Confianca – Nautico : Over 2 @ 1.55
Total Odds : 2.66

 

[BuzzKill]

John Ryan

Game: (625) Kansas at (626) Michigan State
Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Kansas -4.5 (-115)
The line for this game opened with Kansas priced as a 4.5-point neutral court favorite. I believe you will see more money come in here on the unranked underdog, but getting Kansas at -4.5 is an attractive price.
My Pre-Flop and Live Betting Plan
In games like this one, consider betting 50% pre-flop, and then look to let scoring volatility work in your favor. For instance, there is a high probability that both teams will rip off 8 or more points without an answer from the opponent. So, if at any time during the first half, MSU goes on an 8 or more-point scoring run grab 25% of your normal 4-Unbits bet amount on the live line, and then again if MSU rips off 8-straight again OR if Kansas is an in-game +3.5 point underdog.
The risk of this wagering plan is that you end up with just 50% on Kansas, but that also implies that they win and cover the spread.
Coach Izzo is Fired Up
MSU head coach Izzo enters his 27th season with a very bad taste in his mouth as a result of not being ranked in the preseason polls since 2011. MSU did get the most points of the teams ranked 26 and higher, but still, he did state to the press he was “ticked” off. He is a great motivator and it spilled over to his players. So, you can expect them to show up with intensity to make a statement, but currently, they do not have a go-to player that takes over a game. That will evolve over the first 15+ games ahead of Big Ten Conference play. They have a strong and highly-touted recruiting class coming in led by top-20 recruit Max Christie.
The bottom line is I believe Kansas will absorb the MSU opening burst and then gradually wear them in the second half. Therefore, I do like the in-game betting strategy detailed above.
For the Database and the Predictive Models
The following team situations are from my predictive models and the performance measures are what I want to see in terms of the pace of play, shooting percentages, and others. MSU is 3-12 ATS when attempting 55 to 62 shots in games played over the last two seasons; 3-12 ATS when they have allowed 70 to 75 points; 0-8 ATS when scoring fewer than 65 points.

 

[BuzzKill]

JM Sports

Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 9:10 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Utah Jazz -7.5 (-110)
C* #520 Utah Jazz (-7.5) over Atlanta Hawks –
As impressive as this Hawks team is they are coming into this game with no rest, playing the Warriors Monday night. This Hawks team so far this season is 0-6 ATS on the road, 0-2 on 0 rest, 0-2 w/ a rest disadvantage (coming into Monday)! Dating back to the beginning of 2020 the Hawks are also 22-29-1 ATS on the road and 5-9-1 w/ a rest disadvantage ATS. The Jazz on the other hand are coming off the loss to the Magic but they are 2-0 ATS so far this year with the rest advantage and 2-1 @ H, and dating back to 2020 they are also 11-5 w/ the rest advantage, 29-15-1 (66%) on their home court ATS, 21-13-1 vs. non-conference opponents and 51-35-1 ATS as a favorite. Moral of the story, Jazz at home, no Hawks on the road anytime soon.

Game: (627) Toledo at (628) Valparaiso
Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: Bunits
Play: Toledo -4.0 (-110)
B* #627 Toledo Rockets (-4) over Valparaiso Deacons –
Toledo may not have had one of the hardest schedules last year, but they averaged over 81 PPG, with a +8.5 PPG differential on the season. The Rockets covered ⅔ of their games last season going 20-10 ATS (including 10-5 on the road) and Toledo kept 3 of their 5 scorers from last season against a Valparaiso team that has only 2 returning starters. Blue Ribbon has put Valparaiso at 9th in the conference, and have them taking a big fall in the defensive aspect, where they were so strong last year. The Deacons went just 5-5 ATS @ H last season and now they open their season against a Toledo team that looks to continue as a legitimate offensive threat.

Game: (675) Jacksonville State at (676) Wichita State
Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: Bunits
Play: Jacksonville State +7.5 (-110)
B* #675 Jacksonville State (+7.5) over Wichita State –
Jacksonville State ended the season LY at 8-3 ATS on the road, and they have all 5 starters back. They averaged 74 PPG last season and even though they were allowing almost 69 OPPG, the team was out-rebounding opponents by over 5 RPG and both the offense and defense has improved this off-season. Wichita State lost 2 of the 5 starters, and even though the Shockers were 16-6 SU last season, they were just 5-7 ATS @ H, winning the games by an average of just 5 points.

 

[BuzzKill]

Gambling God Sports Picks

CBB
RIDER +7.5
TARLETON STATE +16

NHL
MONTREAL

Sports Handicapper King

NCAA F
EASTERN MICHIGAN -6

NCAA B
WEST VIRGINIA -17
UTAH -9

freeplay ncaa b wisconson green bay +3

 

[mcmister]

Jack Winningham
NHL. Vegas
NCAA Kansas

 

[BuzzKill]

Northcoast

Marquee Over 62 Akron/WMU

 

[BuzzKill]

Dave Essler

C* GOM

Blazers +3

 

[BuzzKill]

Sports Handicapper King

NCAA F
EASTERN MICHIGAN -6

NCAA B
WEST VIRGINIA -17
UTAH -9

freeplay ncaa b wisconson green bay +3

 

[buda21711]

Danny Burke's Betting Blurbs (VSIN)​

Three Quick MAC ‘Caps
Happy College Basketball Season! Our 2021-22 College Basketball Betting Guide is out and it is spectacular. Be sure to check it out today, tomorrow and every day until you have it memorized digital front to digital back.

But, in all seriousness, it is extremely comprehensive and will help you with your college hoops handicapping. The link is below today’s blurb and also down under the college basketball heading.

Let’s get to the quick MAC caps for tonight.

Like I mentioned last week, these are tough handicaps because this conference is all over the map. NFL officiating, melted ice cream and the flight of a fly are all more consistent than the teams in this league. But, I’ll try to provide some insights on today’s games.

Buffalo at Miami (OH) (-7.5, 57)
Giving up 56 points to Bowling Green is bad for a team’s perception. Just ask Buffalo. The Bulls are over a touchdown underdog this week to Miami and the line has inched up slightly over the last couple of days. You look at Buffalo’s recent body of work and you wonder how this team hung with Coastal Carolina and actually played halfway decent against Nebraska.

Miami’s most recent performance wasn’t a good one either with a loss to Ohio, who scored 35 points to end a three-game losing streak. Trusting either one of these teams is tough, but the betting markets are showing at least some mild sharp interest in the RedHawks.

Buffalo’s defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing 6.36 yards per play. Miami’s offense actually ranks 42nd in yards per play, so that seems to be the difference here. I think all three MAC totals are a little bit inflated tonight based on what we saw last week, but if the games do end up tailoring to offense, that helps Miami.

A slight lean to the under here, but nothing more.

Ohio at Eastern Michigan (-6, 60.5)
Easily the craziest MAC game last week was Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo, which ended 52-49. Neither offense looked ripe for that kind of performance, as my under bet went down in flames very early. The Eagles may not score a 50-burger for the third week in a row, but their offense has been much better than many expected.

Ohio is 1-3 over the last four games and they’ve been decided by a total of 13 points. Because the Bobcats run the ball so much, they’ve been able to keep games close. EMU’s run defense ranks 109th in the nation. Ohio’s is 111th, but the Eagles are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. They need to throw the ball to be effective and Ben Bryant has done a nice job of that.

One huge difference between these two teams is red zone success. Eastern Michigan is 22nd in TD% and Ohio is 121st. EMU also has a big edge in third-down conversion rate as a top-20 offense in that department. Ohio is 94th. I’m not sure what kind of craziness the second half brings, but I like Eastern Michigan in the first half on the gray turf with some of those advantages on third down and in the red zone likely to play a role early. This is a smaller bet than normal for me.

Pick: Eastern Michigan -3.5 1H

Akron at Western Michigan (-25, 62)
Akron fired head coach Tom Arth after last week’s loss. The interim head coach is Oscar Rodriguez Jr., a man that has beaten cancer twice and served as the associate head coach. We always wonder how teams will react to the firing of a head coach. Usually they rally, at least for one game. Rodriguez seems like the kind of interim a team rallies for.

The Zips are not a good football team and look to be outgunned in this game, but they are getting a 25-point head start here in a game with a total of 62. The WMU team that you see now is not the one that somehow beat Pitt earlier in the year. They’ve lost three of four and only led Kent State by six at the half in the 64-31 win, as that game just spiraled out of control quickly for the Flashes.

It’s not a big play by any means, but we should see a really inspired effort from the Zips tonight and I think they can hang within this number. This is a smaller bet for me as well. This conference is just unpredictable, but I think it’s worth a look.

Pick: Akron Zips +25

 

[BuzzKill]

Jack Winningham

NHL. Vegas
NCAA Kansas

 

[vivaatlanticcity]

any maddux?

 

[mark3]

Pickswise ? Thx

 

[satches]

Bookie Killer
Northwestern -24
Rice -7.5