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'Nationals heavy favorites vs Braves'

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals September 6, 7:05 EST

Atlanta and Washington get ready to duel again after Nationals' ended Braves six game win streak Sunday with a 6-4 win. With the victory, the Nationals have now won twelve of fourteen meetings this season vs Braves including 6-1 at Nationals Park.

According to current odds the Nationals are -$2.25 home favorites with the total set at 8.5 across all shops.

Southpaw Gio Gonzales toes the rubber for Washington carrying a 10-9 record, 4.14 ERA. The Nationals have split a pair vs Braves this season with Gonzales and the club has won four of his last five starts vs Atlanta.

Gonzalez will be matching pitches with Atlanta’s righthander Williams Perez who has an 2-2 record this season with a 4.62 ERA. Perez is making his first start since June 6 having been on the 60-day DL. Perez won his lone start vs Washington last season.

Those inclined towards laying extra juice, Gonzalez doing Washington's bidding bodes well for Nationals chances. There's been no place like Nationals Park recently for Gonzles. The portsider has won his last four starts in front of the home audience allowing 8 runs over 24 innings while wiffing 25 batters, walking just five. Additionally, Nationals are on a 6-3 stretch vs the division handing the ball to Gonzales.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*SAN FRANCISCO*at*COLORADO
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SAN FRANCISCO) a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a marginal losing team (46% to 49%), playing on Tuesday
52-31*since 1997.**(*62.7%*|*29.4 units*)
0-1*this year.**(*0.0%*|*-1.0 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*TEXAS*at*SEATTLE
TEXAS is 103-92 (+44.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher*over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.7)
 
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Tuesday’s six-pack

Has any NFL season ever started with so many ???’s at quarterback?

— Sam Bradford/Shaun Hill are splitting 1st team reps in Minnesota this week; hard to believe Hill won’t start, at least for this week.

— Rookie Carson Wentz is starting for Philly, even though he hardly played in preseason games. Think LeBeau’s defense will blitz?

— Jimmy Garoppolo is starting for the first time for the Patriots.

— Rookie Dak Prescott is starting for the Cowboys.

— Trevor Siemian gets his first career start for Denver; his backup is rookie Paxton Lynch.

— Robert Griffin III, Brock Osweiler’s debuts with their new teams will be overshadowed by the other QB dilemmas.
 
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MLB

Tuesday’s games

National League

Phillies @ Marlins
Morgan is 0-4, 7.46 in his last seven starts; over is 9-2 in his last 11. Phillies are 1-6 in his road starts.

Urena is 2-1, 2.04 in his last three starts (under 4-3).

Phillies lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Miami lost nine of last ten games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

Mets @ Reds
Montero shut Miami out for five innings (100 PT) in his first ’16 start.

Finnegan is 1-1, 1.80 in his last three starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11. Reds are 4-7 in his home starts.

Mets are 12-4 in last 16 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Cincinnati lost eight of last 11 games; five of Reds’ last six games stayed under.

Cubs @ Brewers
Hammel is 1-2, 10.80 in his last three starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Cubs lost six of his last seven road starts.

Peralta is 1-1, 3.00 in his last four starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Brewers are 4-5 in his home starts.

Cubs won six of last seven games; three of last four Chicago games stayed under. Milwaukee won four of last five games; under is 6-3 in last nine games at Miller Park.

Cardinals @ Pirates
Weaver is 1-2, 3.43 in four starts this year; his last three stayed under.

Vogelsong is 1-2, 4.41 in his last three starts (over 4-4). Pirates are 1-3 in his home starts.

Cardinals are 10-4 in last 14 road games; four of last six St Louis games stayed under. Pittsburgh lost its last seven games; four of last five Pirate home games went over.

Braves @ Nationals
Perez is making first start since June 6; he is 2-2, 4.88 in nine starts this year (over 6-3).

Gonzalez is 4-0, 3.86 in his last six starts; three of his last four home starts went over. He is 4-0, 3.00 in his last four home starts.

Braves won six of last seven games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 road games. Washington won five of last seven games; seven of last eight National games stayed under.

Giants @ Rockies
Moore is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts (under 4-2).

Bettis is 1-1, 5.85 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Colorado won his last seven home starts.

Giants lost five of last seven road games, are 4-11 in last 15 road series openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Colorado lost three of last four games, is 12-7 in last 19 home series openers. Last four Rockies games went over the total.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Miller is 0-4, 7.83 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Arizona is 3-4 in his road starts.

Stripling is 0-3, 5.48 in his last four starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 3-4 in his home starts.

Arizona is 8-7 in its last 15 games; over is 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Dodgers won five of last six home games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.


American League

Blue Jays @ New York
Sanchez is 3-1, 3.41 in his last six starts; under is 9-1-1 in his last 11. Blue Jays are 8-5 in his road starts.

Cessa is 2-0, 3.50 in his first three MLB starts (over 2-1).

Blue Jays lost three of last four games (over 3-1). New York is 8-4 in its last 12 games; over is 7-3 in last ten games in the Bronx.

Orioles @ Rays
Gallardo is 0-4, 6.75 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Baltimore lost four of his last five road starts.

Odorizzi is 6-0, 2.21 in his last eight starts; four of his last six went over. Tampa Bay won his last five home starts.

Orioles are 5-3 in their last eight games (under 7-1). Tampa Bay is 4-6 in its last ten games; over is 13-4 in their last 17 home games.

Royals @ Twins
Gee is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. He is 0-4, 7.84 in his last four road starts.

Santana is 2-1, 3.51 in his last four starts; four of his last six went over. Twins are 3-8 in his home starts (3-2 in last five).

Royals lost four of last six games; eight of KC’s last nine games went over. Minnesota is 2-16 in its last 18 games; over is 15-2 in last 17 games at Target Field.

Angels @ A’s
Nolasco is 1-4, 4.38 in six starts for the Angels; his last five starts stayed under.

Neal is 1-3, 6.75 in five starts for Oakland (under 3-2).

Angels are 10-2 in last 12 games; three of their last four games went over. Oakland lost six of its last seven games; under is 14-5 in their last 19 games.

Tigers @ White Sox
Boyd is 5-0, 3.12 in his last eight starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Detroit is 3-4 in his road starts.

Gonzalez is 0-2, 4.13 in his last six starts; four of his last five went over. White Sox are 3-4 in his home starts.

Tigers won eight of last nine road games; over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Chicago lost six of last eight games; six of last seven White Sox games went over.

Rangers @ Mariners
Perez is 1-2, 6.11 in his last three starts (over 3-0). Texas lost his last five road starts.

Paxton is 1-0, 3.08 in his last four starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Mariners are 2-5 in his home starts.

Rangers won seven of last nine games; last seven Texas games went over the total. Seattle lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 13-5 in their last 18 games.

Astros @ Indians
Peacock is making first ’16 start; he is 11-16, 4.67 in 41 MLB starts- he started 24 games for the Astros in ’14. Peacock is 5-6, 4.23 in 21 AAA starts this year.

Kluber is 6-0, 2.27 in his last seven starts; over is 9-5-1 in his last 15. Indians won his last eight home starts.

Astros are 12-4 in last 16 games; four of Astros’ last five road games went over. Cleveland won seven of its last eight home games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.


Interleague

Red Sox @ Padres
Buchholz is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; five of his last six stayed under. Boston is 2-4 in his road starts.

Clemens is 0-2, 6.59 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over.

Red Sox lost four of last six road games; they scored one run the last two days. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games. San Diego lost nine of last 13 games; over is 9-3 in last 12 games at Petco Park.


Teams’ record when this pitcher starts:

Phil-Mia– Morgan 3-13; Urena 3-4
NY-Cin– Montero 1-0; Finnegan 10-18
Chi-Mil– Hammel 16-10; Peralta 6-12
StL-Pitt– Weaver 2-2; Vogelsong 3-5
Atl-Wsh– Perez 6-3; Gonzalez 12-15
SF-Col– Samardzija 13-15; Anderson 8-7
Az-LA– Miller 4-11; Stripling 5-8

Tor-NY– Sanchez 16-9; Cessa 3-0
Balt-TB– Gallardo 9-10 (0-5 last 5); Odorizzi 15-13 (6-1 last 7)
KC-Min– Gee 4-8; Santana 8-17
LA-A’s– Nolasco 1-5/9-12; Neal 2-3
Det-Chi– Boyd 9-5 (6-0 last 6); Gonzalez 8-10
Tex-Sea– Perez 15-13; Paxton 4-11
Hst-Clev– Peacock 0-0; Kluber 16-11 (7-0 last 7)

Bos-SD– Buchholz 5-11; Clemens 3-4/1-1


# of time pitcher allows 1+ runs in first inning:

Phil-Mia– Morgan 8-16; Urena 1-7
NY-Cin– Montero 0-1; Finnegan 8-28
Chi-Mil– Hammel 6-26; Peralta 7-18
StL-Pitt– Weaver 1-4; Vogelsong 3-8
Atl-Wsh– Perez 2-9; Gonzalez 6-27
SF-Col– Samardzija 10-28; Anderson 5-15
Az-LA– Miller 6-15; Stripling 4-13

Tor-NY– Sanchez 5-25; Cessa 2-3
Balt-TB– Gallardo 8-19; Odorizzi 5-28
KC-Min– Gee 7-12; Santana 7-25
LA-A’s– Nolasco 11-27; Neal 1-5
Det-Chi– Boyd 2-14; Gonzalez 6-18
Tex-Sea– Perez 11-28; Paxton 4-15
Hst-Clev– Peacock 0-0; Kluber 6-27

Bos-SD– Buchholz 7-16; Clemens 3-9 (3 of last 3)


Umpires

Phil-Mia– Under is 5-2 in last seven LBarrett games.
NY-Cin– Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Lentz games.
Chi-Mil– Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Little games.
StL-Pitt– Four of last five Timmons games went over.
Atl-Wsh– Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Torres games.
SF-Col– Over is 10-3 in last thirteen Rackley games.
Az-LA– Over is 6-3 in last nine Eddings games; underdogs won five of last six.

Tor-NY– Over is 18-3 in last 21 Wegner games.
Balt-TB– Four of last five Reynolds games went over.
KC-Min– Six of last seven Segal games went over.
LA-A’s– Six of last eight Blakney games stayed under.
Det-Chi– Six of last eight Hallion games stayed under.
Tex-Sea– Over is 10-4 in last fourteen Davidson games.
Hst-Clev– Over is 11-4 in last fifteen Hoye games.

Bos-SD– Over is 13-5 in last 18 Miller games.


Teams’ records in first five innings:

Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/5

Arizona 24-34-11…..27-36-5…….51-70
Atlanta 27-36-9……21-31-13……48-67
Cubs 35-22-9……43-21-8…….78-43
Reds 18-41-8……30-34-5…….48-75
Colo 25-30-12…..32-33-4…….57-63
LA 27-29-9……44-21-8…….71-50
Miami 30-30-10….29-22-16……59-52
Milw 20-38-8……38-24-10…..58-62
Mets 28-41-9……33-26-11…….61-57
Philly 22-30-16….24-32-13……46-60
Pitt 20-36-12…..39-24-5……59-59
St. Louis 33-29-7……27-28-12……60-57
SD 22-46-4…..30-30-6……..52-76
SF 31-32-7…….34-20-13…….65-52
Wash 36-22-14…..28-20-17……64-42

Orioles 25-35-8…….36-27-8……..61-62
Boston 27-28-11……43-18-9…….70-46
White Sox 31-31-9……35-29-3……..66-60
Cleveland 35-26-7……33-28-6……..68-54
Detroit 30-31-8…….30-31-4……..60-62
Astros 28-31-11…..32-26-7……..60-57
KC 26-34-11……28-25-13……54-59
Angels 29-36-7…….24-30-11……53-66
Twins 25-35-12…….24-35-12….49-70
NYY 23-38-8……31-28-10……54-66
A’s 22-38-8……25-32-13…….47-69
Seattle 31-29-9……31-24-12……62-53
Tampa Bay 22-29-11……32-32-11……54-61
Texas 25-35-9…….35-24-9……60-59
Toronto 41-23-5……..38-27-4…….79-50
 
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Tuesday’s six-pack

Has any NFL season ever started with so many ???’s at quarterback?

— Sam Bradford/Shaun Hill are splitting 1st team reps in Minnesota this week; hard to believe Hill won’t start, at least for this week.

— Rookie Carson Wentz is starting for Philly, even though he hardly played in preseason games. Think LeBeau’s defense will blitz?

— Jimmy Garoppolo is starting for the first time for the Patriots.

— Rookie Dak Prescott is starting for the Cowboys.

— Trevor Siemian gets his first career start for Denver; his backup is rookie Paxton Lynch.

— Robert Griffin III, Brock Osweiler’s debuts with their new teams will be overshadowed by the other QB dilemmas.
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Tuesday, September 6, 2016 7:05 PM

(903) ST. LOUIS (WEAVER) VS (904) PITTSBURGH (VOGELSONG)

Play Pittsburgh.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

The Monday Bonus Play was on a Week One NFL game. Here’s one I’ve already played on the college side.

337 NORTHERN ILLINOIS at 338 SOUTH FLORIDA 7:00 PM

Take: SOUTH FLORIDA -14

Northern Illinois is a very pesky MAC entry that has frequently thrown scares into major conference programs, and the Huskies have pulled their share of upsets over the years. So it’s not like this is one of those teams it’s a cinch to pull the trigger against, as it’s a solid program that is often overlooked. But the scheduling dynamics in play for this game along with my assessments of the teams involved has me backing the favorite.

First, a few words on the chalk piece here. South Florida has been upwardly mobile ever since Willie Taggart arrived on the scene. Taggart took over a bad program that was off a woeful 2-10 2012 campaign. The cupboard was close to bare when he arrived, and the Bulls suffered through a 3-9 result in Taggart’s first season. But they improved to 4-8 and showed some fight in 2013, and turned the corner last year. South Florida lost its bowl game to Western Kentucky, but that took little away from an 8-4 regular season.

I think the 2016 South Florida entry is a serious contender in the AAC. Taggart has done a great job recruiting and aside from what could be some shaky special teams, I don’t see many weaknesses on this squad. The tough deal for USF is having to play a couple of tough league opponents on the road. But if this team stays healthy, I like their chances of at least matching last year’s win total and perhaps even getting to nine or ten wins.

I’ve learned the hard way to stop making long range predictions against Northern Illinois, and with good reason. The Huskies have now been to six straight MAC title games, and I’m not betting against them keeping that impressive streak alive this year. Wideout Kenny Golladay is the big star on this team, but he’s sure not the only talented guy on the roster, and once league plays begins in early October, NIU should be ready to contend again.

However, right at the moment, I’m only concerned with this week’s game and I don’t like this spot even a little bit for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are off an exceedingly draining triple overtime loss in the high altitude at Wyoming, Now they have to travel to hot and humid Tampa for a battle with a team that figures to be much tougher than the Cowboys.

The oddsmakers aren’t making it easy as this is a big number and Northern Illinois rarely gets blown out. But I didn’t think the Huskies looked especially good last Saturday and USF wasn’t even a little bit shy about drilling opponents last year when they had the opportunity. I’ll note that star running back Marlon Mack is on the injury list as questionable with a concussion, but the Bulls have good depth at that position, so it’s not a huge concern for me. I like this spot for what I believe to be the superior home team, and I laid the -14 with South Florida.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

The Monday Bonus Play was on a Week One NFL game. Here’s one I’ve already played on the college side.

337 NORTHERN ILLINOIS at 338 SOUTH FLORIDA 7:00 PM

Take: SOUTH FLORIDA -14

Northern Illinois is a very pesky MAC entry that has frequently thrown scares into major conference programs, and the Huskies have pulled their share of upsets over the years. So it’s not like this is one of those teams it’s a cinch to pull the trigger against, as it’s a solid program that is often overlooked. But the scheduling dynamics in play for this game along with my assessments of the teams involved has me backing the favorite.

First, a few words on the chalk piece here. South Florida has been upwardly mobile ever since Willie Taggart arrived on the scene. Taggart took over a bad program that was off a woeful 2-10 2012 campaign. The cupboard was close to bare when he arrived, and the Bulls suffered through a 3-9 result in Taggart’s first season. But they improved to 4-8 and showed some fight in 2013, and turned the corner last year. South Florida lost its bowl game to Western Kentucky, but that took little away from an 8-4 regular season.

I think the 2016 South Florida entry is a serious contender in the AAC. Taggart has done a great job recruiting and aside from what could be some shaky special teams, I don’t see many weaknesses on this squad. The tough deal for USF is having to play a couple of tough league opponents on the road. But if this team stays healthy, I like their chances of at least matching last year’s win total and perhaps even getting to nine or ten wins.

I’ve learned the hard way to stop making long range predictions against Northern Illinois, and with good reason. The Huskies have now been to six straight MAC title games, and I’m not betting against them keeping that impressive streak alive this year. Wideout Kenny Golladay is the big star on this team, but he’s sure not the only talented guy on the roster, and once league plays begins in early October, NIU should be ready to contend again.

However, right at the moment, I’m only concerned with this week’s game and I don’t like this spot even a little bit for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are off an exceedingly draining triple overtime loss in the high altitude at Wyoming, Now they have to travel to hot and humid Tampa for a battle with a team that figures to be much tougher than the Cowboys.

The oddsmakers aren’t making it easy as this is a big number and Northern Illinois rarely gets blown out. But I didn’t think the Huskies looked especially good last Saturday and USF wasn’t even a little bit shy about drilling opponents last year when they had the opportunity. I’ll note that star running back Marlon Mack is on the injury list as questionable with a concussion, but the Bulls have good depth at that position, so it’s not a huge concern for me. I like this spot for what I believe to be the superior home team, and I laid the -14 with South Florida.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, September 6th, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the LA Angels and the Oakland Athletics. The LA Angels are 18-7-1 over the total against the AL West. The offense has had a nice run but starter Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 4.95 ERA) has struggled too often with opponents hitting .281 off him. Oakland's Ross Detwiler has not had a good campaign, on his second team with a 4.81 ERA and a 1-3 record. And the Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Play the Angels/Oakland Over the total.
 

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