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Jimmy Adams

Oakland A's vs. Kansas City Royals

Bonus Play Oakland A's

With the longest playoff drought coming to an end, it’s time to put up or shut up as it all comes down to 1 game between the A’s and Royals. The Royals come in a severely inexperienced team and just flat out aren’t ready for this kind of pressure. The season is already a success in their book.

Kansas City lacks power in the middle of their lineup, something that will contribute to their downfall now that the postseason has arrived. Starter James Shields hasn’t had much success in the postseason, dating back to 2010 and 2011 when he was with the Rays. He should pitch a decent game, but in the end it just won’t be enough.

The A’s played terribly down the stretch, and if it weren’t for the Mariners falling apart at the end Oakland might be watching this one from home. Nevertheless, it’s a new season and Oakland is ready to go. They have much more experience than the Royals, yet are still extremely hungry to make a deep postseason push. The A’s have been a dominant team, but still have yet to reach the World Series since their resurgence, a goal that Billy Beane and his players are solely focused on this year.

Jon Lester has had great postseason success, posting a 2.11 ERA in 13 playoff games. He won’t be rattled at all by this atmosphere. The A’s will fall to the Angels in the next series, but they’ll get the job done here. Take the A’s.

Jimmy Adams
 
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'Wild Card - Winner-take-All'

The 2014 MLB playoffs begin Tuesday night, when the A's visit Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Toeing the rubber for A's will be lefty Jon Lester bringing a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA to the mound including 6-4 a mark, 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since he arrived in the Bay Area. Lester trades pitches with Royals right-hander James Shields who heads to the hill with a 14-8 record, 3.21 ERA. The clubs met seven times this season with Royals winning five of the seven matchups. Interesting to note, the two games the A's won in the series, Lester was on the mound giving the hurler a perfect 3-0 record this season against K.C. tossing for both A's and Red Sox. On the other side, Royals won both against Oakland that Shields' started, so something has to give. Oddsmakers have opened Royals as -$1.10 home favorite with the total set at 6.5 runs.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday 8:05 PM MLB

OAKLAND ATHLETICS at KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Take: UNDER 6.5 -115

This should be fun. The A’s are still playing in spite of a colossal September collapse. The Royals are still playing beyond game #162 for the first time in a generation.

The home field advantage here is definitely in play. This crowd is going to be insane. Kansas City baseball fans have been longing for a winner for what seems like an eternity and they’re going to be completely jacked up for this event. I would say the home field edge here is perhaps a dime more than it would normally be as far as the betting line is concerned.

The A’s are in on a free roll of sorts. They’ve basically been dismissed as legit World Series contenders by the talking heads who get the most attention. That could actually be a remedy for their recent ailments, as they’re sort of back to being that little engine that could once again, and that’s the role that seems to serve them best.

I’m think the Under is worth a look here. The A’s aren’t hitting anybody right now, and James Shields has plenty of playoff experience. It has to be noted that his post-season ledger isn’t exactly a thing of beauty, but there’s still enough there to at least assume he won’t succumb to big stage nerves.

Jon Lester was nothing short of spectacular last October for the Red Sox, and figures to be strong here. The Royals are not explosive, and need to make consistent contact to thrive as they lack power. Lester profiles as the type most likely to give them trouble, as he’s a power lefty.

I’m going to be really interested to see who Oakland starts behind the plate. It needs to be Geovany Soto, who isn’t as dangerous with the stick as Derek Norris, but is much better at limiting steals. That’s a big key in terms of containing an important aspect of the Kansas City offense.

The Oakland bullpen has not been good of late, but I really expect Lester to go deep here. The Royals really only need Shields to let it all hang out for six frames, as there’s no better late inning trifecta in the game than Herrera, Davis and Holland.

The A’s are not a small ball entry, but they need to try and manufacture runs here. The Royals play that way anyway, and the likelihood of a big inning against Lester is pretty low. I think we’re looking at a pitching duel and a close, low scoring game. I’ll make the Tuesday free play Under 6.5 between the A’s and Royals.
 
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MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, September 30


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (88 - 74) at KANSAS CITY (89 - 73) - 8:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 88-74 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 19-28 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
OAKLAND is 2-11 (-8.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
OAKLAND is 40-41 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 4-15 (-11.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.
OAKLAND is 10-16 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
OAKLAND is 86-70 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 57-47 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 61-49 (-7.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 46-40 (-12.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 15-24 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 18-22 (-9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
KANSAS CITY is 89-73 (+3.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 (+10.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 85-70 (+1.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 63-48 (+5.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 43-35 (+5.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 64-60 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SHIELDS is 63-38 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 25-9 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 12-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 118-70 (+38.4 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
LESTER is 21-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 41-22 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 9-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 3-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 5-2 (+4.6 Units) against OAKLAND this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

JON LESTER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
LESTER is 9-3 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 1.84 and a WHIP of 1.057.
His team's record is 9-4 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-2. (+6.2 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SHIELDS is 6-4 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.148.
His team's record is 9-6 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-9. (-4.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (88 - 74) at PITTSBURGH (88 - 74) - 8:05 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 85-90 (-19.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 96-105 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 88-74 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 51-30 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 21-4 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 51-30 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 65-43 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 81-64 (+15.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 357-363 (+50.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
VOLQUEZ is 48-32 (+20.6 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-74 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-38 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-7 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-74 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-44 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 49-38 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BUMGARNER is 13-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 13-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
BUMGARNER is 1-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 1-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 2-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.72 and a WHIP of 1.588.
His team's record is 3-8 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-5. (+0.6 units)
 
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MLB

Tuesday, September 30


Trend Report

8:07 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oakland's last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
 

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