Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Tuesday 8:05 PM MLB
OAKLAND ATHLETICS at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take: UNDER 6.5 -115
This should be fun. The A’s are still playing in spite of a colossal September collapse. The Royals are still playing beyond game #162 for the first time in a generation.
The home field advantage here is definitely in play. This crowd is going to be insane. Kansas City baseball fans have been longing for a winner for what seems like an eternity and they’re going to be completely jacked up for this event. I would say the home field edge here is perhaps a dime more than it would normally be as far as the betting line is concerned.
The A’s are in on a free roll of sorts. They’ve basically been dismissed as legit World Series contenders by the talking heads who get the most attention. That could actually be a remedy for their recent ailments, as they’re sort of back to being that little engine that could once again, and that’s the role that seems to serve them best.
I’m think the Under is worth a look here. The A’s aren’t hitting anybody right now, and James Shields has plenty of playoff experience. It has to be noted that his post-season ledger isn’t exactly a thing of beauty, but there’s still enough there to at least assume he won’t succumb to big stage nerves.
Jon Lester was nothing short of spectacular last October for the Red Sox, and figures to be strong here. The Royals are not explosive, and need to make consistent contact to thrive as they lack power. Lester profiles as the type most likely to give them trouble, as he’s a power lefty.
I’m going to be really interested to see who Oakland starts behind the plate. It needs to be Geovany Soto, who isn’t as dangerous with the stick as Derek Norris, but is much better at limiting steals. That’s a big key in terms of containing an important aspect of the Kansas City offense.
The Oakland bullpen has not been good of late, but I really expect Lester to go deep here. The Royals really only need Shields to let it all hang out for six frames, as there’s no better late inning trifecta in the game than Herrera, Davis and Holland.
The A’s are not a small ball entry, but they need to try and manufacture runs here. The Royals play that way anyway, and the likelihood of a big inning against Lester is pretty low. I think we’re looking at a pitching duel and a close, low scoring game. I’ll make the Tuesday free play Under 6.5 between the A’s and Royals.