Mike Lundin
Jul 25 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Royals vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -139 at betonline
#MLB Free Pick from Mike Lundin
Play: Detroit Tigers
Rating: 5/10*
The Detroit Tigers in general and Michael Fulmer in particular will be looking for revenge when they host the Kansas City Royals and Danny Duffy Tuesday night.
The Royals defeated the Tigers 16-4 at Kauffman Stadium on July 20 in a contest where Fulmer (10-7, 3.35 ERA) was chased off the mound after just 2 2/3 innings through which he was tagged with eight runs (five earned). A rare mishap for the 24 year old who has been rock solid most of the season (he ranks second in the American League with 16 quality starts).
Duffy (6-6 , 3.71 ERA) surrendered four runs on nine hits over five innings when pitching opposite Fulmer on July 20 and he is 6-7 with a 4.01 ERA against Detroit in his career.
The Royals own a six-game winning streak after beating Detroit 5-3 in 12 innings on Monday, but the Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss, and note that Royals are 3-8 in Duffy's last 11 road starts while Tigers are 10-3 in Fulmer's last 13 home starts.
Jul 25 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Royals vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -139 at betonline
#MLB Free Pick from Mike Lundin
Play: Detroit Tigers
Rating: 5/10*
The Detroit Tigers in general and Michael Fulmer in particular will be looking for revenge when they host the Kansas City Royals and Danny Duffy Tuesday night.
The Royals defeated the Tigers 16-4 at Kauffman Stadium on July 20 in a contest where Fulmer (10-7, 3.35 ERA) was chased off the mound after just 2 2/3 innings through which he was tagged with eight runs (five earned). A rare mishap for the 24 year old who has been rock solid most of the season (he ranks second in the American League with 16 quality starts).
Duffy (6-6 , 3.71 ERA) surrendered four runs on nine hits over five innings when pitching opposite Fulmer on July 20 and he is 6-7 with a 4.01 ERA against Detroit in his career.
The Royals own a six-game winning streak after beating Detroit 5-3 in 12 innings on Monday, but the Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss, and note that Royals are 3-8 in Duffy's last 11 road starts while Tigers are 10-3 in Fulmer's last 13 home starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO -108 over N.Y. Mets
Seth Lugo has made just seven starts for the Mets and comes in with a respectable 4.05 ERA along with a BB/K split of 14/33 in 47 frames. Last year, Lugo went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings for the Mets. Lugo is 27-years old and has been riding the shuttle between the minors and majors for a few years so this is not a breakout. Instead, it’s just a lucky MLB hit%/strand% combo (24%/81%), which is the flip side of his fortunes at AAA. Lugo has fared better as a reliever (8.5 K’s/9 - 4.11 xERA) than a starter (5.6 K’s/9 - 4.66 xERA) at this level and his 50% groundball rate could present a path forward, but the reality is that he's a late bloomer who didn't arrive 'til age 26 and he may disappear as fast as he came.
Jhoulys Chacin did not have the best start to the 2017 season. In his first start of the year, he gave up nine earned runs against the Dodgers. Chacin gave up another seven runs four starts later at the hands of the Diamondbacks. By the time the baseball season reached the end of April, Chacin was 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA. The threat of him imploding on any given night made him a fade target for many. However, since the beginning of June, the 29-year-old Chacin has produced very different results. If we simply look at Chacin’s season stats, there isn’t a lot that will jump out. However, his monthly splits begin to paint a positive picture. After the first month of the season, Chacin’s ERA was 5.82. That number dropped to 3.00 in June, and it sits at 2.08 in July. Also, his K-rate % has slowly increased each month of the season. Chacin has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, but the production has gradually gotten better over the course of the season.
There are other encouraging trends as well. His soft contact rate is trending upward, and his groundball rate is as high as it’s been since 2011. Add to these factors increased velocity and you have the makings of a more successful pitcher. These are all positive signs but there’s more. It appears that much of Chacin’s success stems from the fact that he’s throwing his slider more than at any point in his career. In April, he was throwing the pitch only 21% of the time. In June and July, that rate has been north of 35%. Chacin’s slider has the highest whiff/swing rate in his arsenal (33.89%), and it’s been his most successful pitch against opposing batters. His curve has produced slightly better results, but he’s thrown it far less often. Jhoulys Chacin has a 1.94/3.01 ERA/xERA at home. The Padres have won his last four starts and they’ve also won six of his last eight starts. Chacin has defeated the Dodgers over that span and did not allow a single run to them and now he’s evenly priced against Seth Lugo and the Mets? We buy bargains and this is one of them.
Oakland +102 over TORONTO
Francisco Liriano did his part last night but had it not been for a lucky throw by Ricky Martin to catch Rajai Davis for the first out of the first inning, the A’s may have scored a bunch in the first. That’s speculation but from that point forward, Liriano and the Jays pen threw a great game. However, the Jays offense remained stagnant and now Cesar Valdez is favored over Sonny Gray? That’s incorrect.
Valdez was claimed off waivers from Oakland (of all teams) by the Blue Jays on Friday, May 5. He made one start with the A’s back in April and has made four relief appearances for the Jays, all in a mop-up role. In 19 frames, this season, Valdez has been tagged for 23 hits with five of those leaving the yard. Valdez is no rookie. The 32-year-old Valdez was called up by the Athletics to make a spot start on that aforementioned date back in April and it was his first major league action since a couple of dozen innings all the way back in 2010 for Arizona. In the seven years since then, Valdez has bounced around teams (both MLB and foreign leagues), never reaching higher than Triple-A. Valdez doesn't have dominant stuff, of course, but he throws lots of pitches, including a fastball that barely reaches 90 mph and a change-up, a sinker and a slider. Still, there’s a reason he’s been riding buses and not airplanes since 2006. That this Aaron Sanchez desperate replacement is favored over Sonny Gray is a bit nuts.
Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Sonny Gray’s playing time (10 weeks over 2 DL trips) last season. His control and hr/f ballooned sending his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Somehow, someway, Sonny Gray’s outstanding skills and rock solid season is not being recognized by this fickle market. Sonny Gray is the straight goods. His 3.51 xERA is elite. After a terrible 2016 (5.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) his improvement has been backed by significant growth across the board. Gray is striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings. His 55% groundball rate is a top six mark in the league. A huge increase in Gray's swinging strike rate (8.0% in 2016 to 12.8% this year) has helped to fuel his turnaround. Gray was outstanding prior to his injury and now he’s back to the form that instilled fear into the opposition but the market hasn’t responded. We’ve been touting Gray all year and will continue to get benind him as long as he remains underpriced like he is here.
Miami +120 over TEXAS
Cole Hamels is 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA. Over his last three starts, Hamels is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA. After five April starts, Hamels’ 4.93 xERA and poor command indicated that something wasn't right. Sure enough, Hamels was dealing with an injury and spent two months on the DL with a strained oblique. On paper, he’s looked better since returning in late June but this is not the same pitcher who went 15-5 in 2016 and was dominating for years before that. This year, Hamels’ ERA looks great, but his 4.82 xERA indicate there are some issues. First, there’s a big drop in his swing and miss rate, which accounts for his low strikeout rate of 36 K’s in 64 innings. Hamels’ groundball rate is in decline and his line-drive rate is gradually increasing too and is now up from 19% in April to 24% since returning from the DL. Cole Hamels is a household name with credentials and pedigree but even the best deteriorate over time. Hamels is a fraction of the starter he once was and now you’ll pay for both his misleading ERA and his name.
Meanwhile, Dan Straily is the better pitcher here and his significant gains versus LHB are propelling him. Straily was a pleasant surprise in 2016, as he put together a solid 3.76 ERA in 191 IP with the Reds. However, there were reasons for concern heading into his first season with the Marlins, most notably his extreme gopheritis. His substantial progress vs. lefties has curbed the HR output. His 2016 line vs. LHB was largely driven by a fortuitous 21% hit rate, as he allowed 10 HR in 191 plate appearances and displayed dreadful command vs. LHB in the process. He has turned things around in a major way in 2017 with excellent command and two jacks allowed in 176 PA. Only five pitchers in MLB allowed more jacks (31) than Straily in 2016 (18 HR came away from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; 7 of 11 HR allowed in 2017 have come on the road), but he has gotten the problem under control so far in 2017. A sizable shift to the good in groundball%/fly-ball% has played a part in that progress.
Straily’s current strikeout rate (105 K’s in 113 innings) is supported by his well above average 12% swing and miss rate. An improved slider has been instrumental in that growth (slider swing and miss rate 2016/2017: 14%/18%; Usage +3% to 29%). A focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone has aided in producing what would be his best control and his solid Ball% even hints at a little more upside. Straily’s 2016 results caused many to be weary of him heading into 2017. He has been able to stave off that looming regression by upgrading multiple facets of his game and the underlying metrics absolutely confirm that it’s legit. Big time overlay here and we’re on it.
SAN DIEGO -108 over N.Y. Mets
Seth Lugo has made just seven starts for the Mets and comes in with a respectable 4.05 ERA along with a BB/K split of 14/33 in 47 frames. Last year, Lugo went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings for the Mets. Lugo is 27-years old and has been riding the shuttle between the minors and majors for a few years so this is not a breakout. Instead, it’s just a lucky MLB hit%/strand% combo (24%/81%), which is the flip side of his fortunes at AAA. Lugo has fared better as a reliever (8.5 K’s/9 - 4.11 xERA) than a starter (5.6 K’s/9 - 4.66 xERA) at this level and his 50% groundball rate could present a path forward, but the reality is that he's a late bloomer who didn't arrive 'til age 26 and he may disappear as fast as he came.
Jhoulys Chacin did not have the best start to the 2017 season. In his first start of the year, he gave up nine earned runs against the Dodgers. Chacin gave up another seven runs four starts later at the hands of the Diamondbacks. By the time the baseball season reached the end of April, Chacin was 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA. The threat of him imploding on any given night made him a fade target for many. However, since the beginning of June, the 29-year-old Chacin has produced very different results. If we simply look at Chacin’s season stats, there isn’t a lot that will jump out. However, his monthly splits begin to paint a positive picture. After the first month of the season, Chacin’s ERA was 5.82. That number dropped to 3.00 in June, and it sits at 2.08 in July. Also, his K-rate % has slowly increased each month of the season. Chacin has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, but the production has gradually gotten better over the course of the season.
There are other encouraging trends as well. His soft contact rate is trending upward, and his groundball rate is as high as it’s been since 2011. Add to these factors increased velocity and you have the makings of a more successful pitcher. These are all positive signs but there’s more. It appears that much of Chacin’s success stems from the fact that he’s throwing his slider more than at any point in his career. In April, he was throwing the pitch only 21% of the time. In June and July, that rate has been north of 35%. Chacin’s slider has the highest whiff/swing rate in his arsenal (33.89%), and it’s been his most successful pitch against opposing batters. His curve has produced slightly better results, but he’s thrown it far less often. Jhoulys Chacin has a 1.94/3.01 ERA/xERA at home. The Padres have won his last four starts and they’ve also won six of his last eight starts. Chacin has defeated the Dodgers over that span and did not allow a single run to them and now he’s evenly priced against Seth Lugo and the Mets? We buy bargains and this is one of them.
Oakland +102 over TORONTO
Francisco Liriano did his part last night but had it not been for a lucky throw by Ricky Martin to catch Rajai Davis for the first out of the first inning, the A’s may have scored a bunch in the first. That’s speculation but from that point forward, Liriano and the Jays pen threw a great game. However, the Jays offense remained stagnant and now Cesar Valdez is favored over Sonny Gray? That’s incorrect.
Valdez was claimed off waivers from Oakland (of all teams) by the Blue Jays on Friday, May 5. He made one start with the A’s back in April and has made four relief appearances for the Jays, all in a mop-up role. In 19 frames, this season, Valdez has been tagged for 23 hits with five of those leaving the yard. Valdez is no rookie. The 32-year-old Valdez was called up by the Athletics to make a spot start on that aforementioned date back in April and it was his first major league action since a couple of dozen innings all the way back in 2010 for Arizona. In the seven years since then, Valdez has bounced around teams (both MLB and foreign leagues), never reaching higher than Triple-A. Valdez doesn't have dominant stuff, of course, but he throws lots of pitches, including a fastball that barely reaches 90 mph and a change-up, a sinker and a slider. Still, there’s a reason he’s been riding buses and not airplanes since 2006. That this Aaron Sanchez desperate replacement is favored over Sonny Gray is a bit nuts.
Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Sonny Gray’s playing time (10 weeks over 2 DL trips) last season. His control and hr/f ballooned sending his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Somehow, someway, Sonny Gray’s outstanding skills and rock solid season is not being recognized by this fickle market. Sonny Gray is the straight goods. His 3.51 xERA is elite. After a terrible 2016 (5.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) his improvement has been backed by significant growth across the board. Gray is striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings. His 55% groundball rate is a top six mark in the league. A huge increase in Gray's swinging strike rate (8.0% in 2016 to 12.8% this year) has helped to fuel his turnaround. Gray was outstanding prior to his injury and now he’s back to the form that instilled fear into the opposition but the market hasn’t responded. We’ve been touting Gray all year and will continue to get benind him as long as he remains underpriced like he is here.
Miami +120 over TEXAS
Cole Hamels is 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA. Over his last three starts, Hamels is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA. After five April starts, Hamels’ 4.93 xERA and poor command indicated that something wasn't right. Sure enough, Hamels was dealing with an injury and spent two months on the DL with a strained oblique. On paper, he’s looked better since returning in late June but this is not the same pitcher who went 15-5 in 2016 and was dominating for years before that. This year, Hamels’ ERA looks great, but his 4.82 xERA indicate there are some issues. First, there’s a big drop in his swing and miss rate, which accounts for his low strikeout rate of 36 K’s in 64 innings. Hamels’ groundball rate is in decline and his line-drive rate is gradually increasing too and is now up from 19% in April to 24% since returning from the DL. Cole Hamels is a household name with credentials and pedigree but even the best deteriorate over time. Hamels is a fraction of the starter he once was and now you’ll pay for both his misleading ERA and his name.
Meanwhile, Dan Straily is the better pitcher here and his significant gains versus LHB are propelling him. Straily was a pleasant surprise in 2016, as he put together a solid 3.76 ERA in 191 IP with the Reds. However, there were reasons for concern heading into his first season with the Marlins, most notably his extreme gopheritis. His substantial progress vs. lefties has curbed the HR output. His 2016 line vs. LHB was largely driven by a fortuitous 21% hit rate, as he allowed 10 HR in 191 plate appearances and displayed dreadful command vs. LHB in the process. He has turned things around in a major way in 2017 with excellent command and two jacks allowed in 176 PA. Only five pitchers in MLB allowed more jacks (31) than Straily in 2016 (18 HR came away from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; 7 of 11 HR allowed in 2017 have come on the road), but he has gotten the problem under control so far in 2017. A sizable shift to the good in groundball%/fly-ball% has played a part in that progress.
Straily’s current strikeout rate (105 K’s in 113 innings) is supported by his well above average 12% swing and miss rate. An improved slider has been instrumental in that growth (slider swing and miss rate 2016/2017: 14%/18%; Usage +3% to 29%). A focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone has aided in producing what would be his best control and his solid Ball% even hints at a little more upside. Straily’s 2016 results caused many to be weary of him heading into 2017. He has been able to stave off that looming regression by upgrading multiple facets of his game and the underlying metrics absolutely confirm that it’s legit. Big time overlay here and we’re on it.
Zack Cimini
White Sox at Cubs
Pick: Cubs
Through Jon Lackey’s struggles no one is fooled by the White Sox woes. Key bullpen pitchers and Todd Frazier were traded amidst a nine game losing streak. The White Sox did end their slide Monday but look for the Cubs to showcase their talent edge in proper fashion Tuesday.
White Sox at Cubs
Pick: Cubs
Through Jon Lackey’s struggles no one is fooled by the White Sox woes. Key bullpen pitchers and Todd Frazier were traded amidst a nine game losing streak. The White Sox did end their slide Monday but look for the Cubs to showcase their talent edge in proper fashion Tuesday.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. Texas
Pick: Under
The set-up: The Miami Marlins are pretty much all but out of playoff contention, sitting 14 games back of the Nats in the NL East and 11 games out of a wild card spot with a plethora of teams ahead of them. However, they are capable of playing spoilers, as after Monday's 4-0 win at Texas, the Marlins have won eight of their last 10 on the road. Two Giancarlo Stanton HRs led the way last night, giving him six in his last seven games to move into a tie with Aaron Judge for the major league lead with 32. Miami continues its three-game interleague series at Texas on Tuesday against the Rangers, who have no chance to catch the Astros in the AL West (sit 18 games back) but like most AL teams, remain in crowded wild card field just 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. However, it's a YUGE field.
The pitching matchup: Dan Straily (7-5 & 3.49 ERA) steps to the mound for Miami and Cole Hamels (4-1 & 3.78 ERA) for Texas. Straily suffered his first loss in 1 1/2 months in his last start against Philadelphia, allowing four runs and a season high-tying nine nine hits over five innings, as the Marlins lost 10-3 at home. It was the first time in seven outings that Straily permitted more than three runs and snapped his seven-start unbeaten string (he had been 3-0 and Miami5-2 in that stretch ). Straily is 4-3 record with a 4.25 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Texas (teams are 4-6). Hamels took a scoreless streak of 21 innings into his last start but it came to a jarring end in Baltimore, when he was battered for seven runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings. It was the fifth start since coming off the disabled list for Hamels, who was victimized by three HRs. Hamels has sure seen a lot of the Marlins in his career (he spent nine-plus season with the Phillies), going 9-15 with a 3.39 ERA in 37 starts (teams are 14-23).
The pick: Both Straily and Hamels were in excellent form prior to their last outings and I'll vote (bet) on bounce-back efforts here for both pitchers. Play the Under.
Miami vs. Texas
Pick: Under
The set-up: The Miami Marlins are pretty much all but out of playoff contention, sitting 14 games back of the Nats in the NL East and 11 games out of a wild card spot with a plethora of teams ahead of them. However, they are capable of playing spoilers, as after Monday's 4-0 win at Texas, the Marlins have won eight of their last 10 on the road. Two Giancarlo Stanton HRs led the way last night, giving him six in his last seven games to move into a tie with Aaron Judge for the major league lead with 32. Miami continues its three-game interleague series at Texas on Tuesday against the Rangers, who have no chance to catch the Astros in the AL West (sit 18 games back) but like most AL teams, remain in crowded wild card field just 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. However, it's a YUGE field.
The pitching matchup: Dan Straily (7-5 & 3.49 ERA) steps to the mound for Miami and Cole Hamels (4-1 & 3.78 ERA) for Texas. Straily suffered his first loss in 1 1/2 months in his last start against Philadelphia, allowing four runs and a season high-tying nine nine hits over five innings, as the Marlins lost 10-3 at home. It was the first time in seven outings that Straily permitted more than three runs and snapped his seven-start unbeaten string (he had been 3-0 and Miami5-2 in that stretch ). Straily is 4-3 record with a 4.25 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Texas (teams are 4-6). Hamels took a scoreless streak of 21 innings into his last start but it came to a jarring end in Baltimore, when he was battered for seven runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings. It was the fifth start since coming off the disabled list for Hamels, who was victimized by three HRs. Hamels has sure seen a lot of the Marlins in his career (he spent nine-plus season with the Phillies), going 9-15 with a 3.39 ERA in 37 starts (teams are 14-23).
The pick: Both Straily and Hamels were in excellent form prior to their last outings and I'll vote (bet) on bounce-back efforts here for both pitchers. Play the Under.
Power Sports
Colorado vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -126
The Redbirds really asserted themselves last night, dominating the Rockies en route to an 8-2 victory. At the start of the year, Colorado was performing remarkably well on the road. But there was always a question of sustainability and sure enough, it was proven to be a mirage. As has the been the case throughout the entire history of the franchise, they are struggling to score runs on the road. Right now, they are averaging 4.4 rpg on the road, roughly two full runs less than what they average at Coors Field.
That doesn't bode well for tonight when they must face Lance Lynn. The Cards starter comes in arguably as hot as any starting pitcher in baseball. He has a 0.47 ERA and 0.828 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed just ONE run during that time, on a solo HR his last time out. Other than that, he's allowed just 13 hits in his last 19 1/3 IP. Lynn has pitched well at home for much of the season as his ERA and WHIP here at Busch Stadium are 2.66 and 1.035. Here is your reminder that despite a 47-51 record, the Cards have outscored the opposition this season - by 26 runs. That's a better differential than the Cubs.
Colorado scored only twice last night and on the other side of the ledger, pitching doesn't look too good tonight either. Jon Gray comes off an easy 18-4 win over the Padres last week, but that only masks the fact that his ERA and WHIP are 9.22 and 2.195 his L3 starts. Somehow, he has a 3-1 team start record on the road this year, despite a 9.00 ERA and 2.067 WHIP. St. Louis has experienced its fair share of "hard luck" this season, but they are way undervalued tonight.
Colorado vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -126
The Redbirds really asserted themselves last night, dominating the Rockies en route to an 8-2 victory. At the start of the year, Colorado was performing remarkably well on the road. But there was always a question of sustainability and sure enough, it was proven to be a mirage. As has the been the case throughout the entire history of the franchise, they are struggling to score runs on the road. Right now, they are averaging 4.4 rpg on the road, roughly two full runs less than what they average at Coors Field.
That doesn't bode well for tonight when they must face Lance Lynn. The Cards starter comes in arguably as hot as any starting pitcher in baseball. He has a 0.47 ERA and 0.828 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed just ONE run during that time, on a solo HR his last time out. Other than that, he's allowed just 13 hits in his last 19 1/3 IP. Lynn has pitched well at home for much of the season as his ERA and WHIP here at Busch Stadium are 2.66 and 1.035. Here is your reminder that despite a 47-51 record, the Cards have outscored the opposition this season - by 26 runs. That's a better differential than the Cubs.
Colorado scored only twice last night and on the other side of the ledger, pitching doesn't look too good tonight either. Jon Gray comes off an easy 18-4 win over the Padres last week, but that only masks the fact that his ERA and WHIP are 9.22 and 2.195 his L3 starts. Somehow, he has a 3-1 team start record on the road this year, despite a 9.00 ERA and 2.067 WHIP. St. Louis has experienced its fair share of "hard luck" this season, but they are way undervalued tonight.
Big Al
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Baltimore +101
O's LHP Wade Miley got his 2017 campaign off to a very promising start, posting a 1-1 record and 2.32 ERA in five April starts. But each subsequent month has seen Miley's numbers head in the opposite direction. In May, Miley went 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA, in June he was 2-3 and 7.48 in six starts, and so far July has been worst as the 30-year-old southpaw has gone 1-2 with an ugly 10.59 ERA in four starts. On the opposite end of the spectrum from Miley is Tampa's rookie RHP Jacob Faria. The 23-year-old from California is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in eight starts coming into tonight. So, why do I favor Baltimore tonight? Well, the Orioles are starting to play much better baseball. They've won six of their last eight games to put themselves back in the Wild Card hunt, while Tampa has lost its last five games. Moreover, Miley has pitched well vs. Tampa Bay in his career. Earlier this season, he gave up just 2 runs in 7 innings, and his career ERA vs. the Rays is 2.60 (in eight starts). Finally, Tampa is 25-44 after scoring 1 run or less in its previous game, and 29-40 at home when priced from -100 to -150.
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Baltimore +101
O's LHP Wade Miley got his 2017 campaign off to a very promising start, posting a 1-1 record and 2.32 ERA in five April starts. But each subsequent month has seen Miley's numbers head in the opposite direction. In May, Miley went 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA, in June he was 2-3 and 7.48 in six starts, and so far July has been worst as the 30-year-old southpaw has gone 1-2 with an ugly 10.59 ERA in four starts. On the opposite end of the spectrum from Miley is Tampa's rookie RHP Jacob Faria. The 23-year-old from California is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in eight starts coming into tonight. So, why do I favor Baltimore tonight? Well, the Orioles are starting to play much better baseball. They've won six of their last eight games to put themselves back in the Wild Card hunt, while Tampa has lost its last five games. Moreover, Miley has pitched well vs. Tampa Bay in his career. Earlier this season, he gave up just 2 runs in 7 innings, and his career ERA vs. the Rays is 2.60 (in eight starts). Finally, Tampa is 25-44 after scoring 1 run or less in its previous game, and 29-40 at home when priced from -100 to -150.
Mark Franco
Jul 25 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | A's vs Blue Jays
Play on: A's +100 at GTBets
A’s
The Toronto Blue Jays are in need of an impressive homestand if they wish to escape the cellar of the American League East and entertain any realistic thoughts of a third straight postseason appearance. After taking the first step in the opener, the Blue Jays look to even their home record after 48 contests on Tuesday when they continue their four-game set versus the Oakland Athletics.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Sonny Gray (6-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Cesar Valdez (0-0, 6.05)
Gray has won three straight starts and improved to 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his last five after another dominating performance on Wednesday. The 27-year-old allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings in a 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay, with six strikeouts in that contest raising his total to 27 in his last 33 1/3 innings. While Gray has struggled against Donaldson and Bautista, he has flustered Justin Smoak (1-for-17, eight strikeouts) and Kendrys Morales (2-for-15).
Valdez is slated to make his first start for Toronto after Aaron Sanchez found himself back on the disabled list for the fourth time this season. The 32-year-old Dominican has made four appearances with the Blue Jays since being acquired from Oakland, although he allowed one run on four hits in 1 2/3 innings of Friday's 13-3 loss at Cleveland. The performance came two days after he worked four innings of scoreless relief following a recall from Triple-A Buffalo.
Athletics are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Athletics are 4-1 in Grays last 5 starts. Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Road team is 5-1 in Timmons' last 6 games behind home plate.
Jul 25 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | A's vs Blue Jays
Play on: A's +100 at GTBets
A’s
The Toronto Blue Jays are in need of an impressive homestand if they wish to escape the cellar of the American League East and entertain any realistic thoughts of a third straight postseason appearance. After taking the first step in the opener, the Blue Jays look to even their home record after 48 contests on Tuesday when they continue their four-game set versus the Oakland Athletics.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Sonny Gray (6-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Cesar Valdez (0-0, 6.05)
Gray has won three straight starts and improved to 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his last five after another dominating performance on Wednesday. The 27-year-old allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings in a 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay, with six strikeouts in that contest raising his total to 27 in his last 33 1/3 innings. While Gray has struggled against Donaldson and Bautista, he has flustered Justin Smoak (1-for-17, eight strikeouts) and Kendrys Morales (2-for-15).
Valdez is slated to make his first start for Toronto after Aaron Sanchez found himself back on the disabled list for the fourth time this season. The 32-year-old Dominican has made four appearances with the Blue Jays since being acquired from Oakland, although he allowed one run on four hits in 1 2/3 innings of Friday's 13-3 loss at Cleveland. The performance came two days after he worked four innings of scoreless relief following a recall from Triple-A Buffalo.
Athletics are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Athletics are 4-1 in Grays last 5 starts. Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Road team is 5-1 in Timmons' last 6 games behind home plate.
The Prez
Mets vs. Padres
Play: Under 8.5
The NY Mets and San Diego take to the Petco Park diamond tonight for Game #2 of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET with two right-handers taking the bump when Mets' Seth Lugo (4-2, 4.05 ERA) opposes Padres Jhoulys Chacin (9-7, 4.26).
Lugo pitched into the seventh inning for the second straight start on this past Thursday holding the St. Louis Cardinals to one run over 6 2/3 innings of work. It was Lugo's second straight quality start and fifth quality effort in eight total starts this season. Lugo now sports a 4-2 record with a 4.05 ERA and 3.86 FIP. The 27-year-old has performed well on the road, going 6-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 13 career games (eight starts) away from home. The Mets' righty is making his second career appearance against San Diego and sports a 9-2 mark and 3.32 ERA over his last 14 turns dating back to Aug. 25, 2016.
Chacin won his third consecutive decision on Thursday, allowing two runs and four hits over six innings in a 5-2 victory over San Francisco. The Padres right-hander has surrendered fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last eight outings. Chacin has significant differences in his splits. The Padres veteran starter has registered a 1.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 0.572 opposing OPS when pitching from the Petco mound. Additionally, Chacin has been improving as the season has progressed, most notably in terms of inducing soft contact (18%, 24%, 31% in May, June, and July).
Umpire Tom Hallion is scheduled to be wearing the vest tonight in San Diego. Hallion is pitcher-friendly and is a perfect 5-0 to the UNDER in his last 5 games grading balls and strikes in games the Padres are involved in. Despite Hallion's 10-5, Over to Under record this 2017 campaign, he has a solid 2.21 K:BB ratio behind the dish.
Mets vs. Padres
Play: Under 8.5
The NY Mets and San Diego take to the Petco Park diamond tonight for Game #2 of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET with two right-handers taking the bump when Mets' Seth Lugo (4-2, 4.05 ERA) opposes Padres Jhoulys Chacin (9-7, 4.26).
Lugo pitched into the seventh inning for the second straight start on this past Thursday holding the St. Louis Cardinals to one run over 6 2/3 innings of work. It was Lugo's second straight quality start and fifth quality effort in eight total starts this season. Lugo now sports a 4-2 record with a 4.05 ERA and 3.86 FIP. The 27-year-old has performed well on the road, going 6-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 13 career games (eight starts) away from home. The Mets' righty is making his second career appearance against San Diego and sports a 9-2 mark and 3.32 ERA over his last 14 turns dating back to Aug. 25, 2016.
Chacin won his third consecutive decision on Thursday, allowing two runs and four hits over six innings in a 5-2 victory over San Francisco. The Padres right-hander has surrendered fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last eight outings. Chacin has significant differences in his splits. The Padres veteran starter has registered a 1.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 0.572 opposing OPS when pitching from the Petco mound. Additionally, Chacin has been improving as the season has progressed, most notably in terms of inducing soft contact (18%, 24%, 31% in May, June, and July).
Umpire Tom Hallion is scheduled to be wearing the vest tonight in San Diego. Hallion is pitcher-friendly and is a perfect 5-0 to the UNDER in his last 5 games grading balls and strikes in games the Padres are involved in. Despite Hallion's 10-5, Over to Under record this 2017 campaign, he has a solid 2.21 K:BB ratio behind the dish.
Nelly
Detroit Tigers - over Kansas City Royals
Michael Fulmer has delivered a stellar sophomore season for the Tigers who still are lurking in AL Central race. Fulmer had his worst start of the season last week vs. this same Royals lineup and he'll get the opportunity for redemption at home Tuesday night. The Royals are a marginal offensive team even with a recent uptick in production and the season road numbers are ugly with a .240 team batting average and a .703 OPS. Danny Duffy beat the Tigers in the matchup against Fulmer last week but he didn't pitch particularly well allowing nine hits and four runs in five innings of work. Detroit is one of MLB's very best hitting teams vs. left-handed pitching with an .849 OPS and the Tigers have taken six of 11 meetings in this series. The Tigers are a winning team in July while 25-22 at home on the season. The Royals have struggled on the road and while Kansas City is closer to the top of the AL Central than Detroit the Tigers have the superior scoring differential on the season. Duffy has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts and he is just 4-6 with a 4.68 ERA over his last 11 starts despite the Royals having more success in that span than in the first month of the season when Duffy excelled. Fulmer should bounce back as he has been the far more reliable starter this season despite last Thursday's result. The Royals also had to use seven relievers last night to win in extra-innings to negate the bullpen edge Kansas City might normally have.
Detroit Tigers - over Kansas City Royals
Michael Fulmer has delivered a stellar sophomore season for the Tigers who still are lurking in AL Central race. Fulmer had his worst start of the season last week vs. this same Royals lineup and he'll get the opportunity for redemption at home Tuesday night. The Royals are a marginal offensive team even with a recent uptick in production and the season road numbers are ugly with a .240 team batting average and a .703 OPS. Danny Duffy beat the Tigers in the matchup against Fulmer last week but he didn't pitch particularly well allowing nine hits and four runs in five innings of work. Detroit is one of MLB's very best hitting teams vs. left-handed pitching with an .849 OPS and the Tigers have taken six of 11 meetings in this series. The Tigers are a winning team in July while 25-22 at home on the season. The Royals have struggled on the road and while Kansas City is closer to the top of the AL Central than Detroit the Tigers have the superior scoring differential on the season. Duffy has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts and he is just 4-6 with a 4.68 ERA over his last 11 starts despite the Royals having more success in that span than in the first month of the season when Duffy excelled. Fulmer should bounce back as he has been the far more reliable starter this season despite last Thursday's result. The Royals also had to use seven relievers last night to win in extra-innings to negate the bullpen edge Kansas City might normally have.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta at Arizona
Pick: Atlanta
Tough night for the Braves on Monday when R.A. Dickey's knuckleball wasn't floating like usual. But will give a look to Atlanta in bounce-back mode behind starter Mike Foltynewicz, in whose last eight starts the Braves have won! Taijuan Walker on the mound for Arizona for the first time since July 14 at Atlanta, when his bullpen blew a late lead in a 4-3 loss.
Atlanta at Arizona
Pick: Atlanta
Tough night for the Braves on Monday when R.A. Dickey's knuckleball wasn't floating like usual. But will give a look to Atlanta in bounce-back mode behind starter Mike Foltynewicz, in whose last eight starts the Braves have won! Taijuan Walker on the mound for Arizona for the first time since July 14 at Atlanta, when his bullpen blew a late lead in a 4-3 loss.
Sleepyj
Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
I'll bite for a second straight days on the Rangers. Coming off a shutout loss I would expect the Rangers to bounce back here with Hamels on the mound. Hamels has been solid since his return and facing a team that doesn't hit the LHP all that well is a plus...Hamels has a 3.78ERA and is coming off a terrible outing. He gave up 9 hits and 7ER against Baltimore his last game. He should come out ready and looking for some redemption...Miami hasn't seen him and that's always a plus at home...Straily goes for the Marlins and he has been pretty good all year. He has lost his last two starts and my concern with him is being inconsistent overall. He tends to give up the big shot and he can give up hits in bunches. Straily is also a pure fly ball pitcher which doesn't help his cause either. My feeling is this is a close game, but Hamels and a deep shot seal the deal for the Rangers at home.
Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
I'll bite for a second straight days on the Rangers. Coming off a shutout loss I would expect the Rangers to bounce back here with Hamels on the mound. Hamels has been solid since his return and facing a team that doesn't hit the LHP all that well is a plus...Hamels has a 3.78ERA and is coming off a terrible outing. He gave up 9 hits and 7ER against Baltimore his last game. He should come out ready and looking for some redemption...Miami hasn't seen him and that's always a plus at home...Straily goes for the Marlins and he has been pretty good all year. He has lost his last two starts and my concern with him is being inconsistent overall. He tends to give up the big shot and he can give up hits in bunches. Straily is also a pure fly ball pitcher which doesn't help his cause either. My feeling is this is a close game, but Hamels and a deep shot seal the deal for the Rangers at home.
Rob Vinciletti
White Sox at Cubs
Play: Cubs -1.5
The Cubs will look to bounce back here today and fit a solid 89% system that plays on home team off a -200 or higher home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a +200 or higher road dog win scoring 4 or less runs with 10+ hits. The Cubs have won 16 of 22 vs leftys and average over 6 runs against them. Rodon pitching for the Whitesox has a pedestrian like 5.76 Era. Lackey has allowed just 3 runs in his last 2 starts vs the Sox. The Whitesox are 4-13 in July. Look for the Cubs to bounce back.
White Sox at Cubs
Play: Cubs -1.5
The Cubs will look to bounce back here today and fit a solid 89% system that plays on home team off a -200 or higher home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a +200 or higher road dog win scoring 4 or less runs with 10+ hits. The Cubs have won 16 of 22 vs leftys and average over 6 runs against them. Rodon pitching for the Whitesox has a pedestrian like 5.76 Era. Lackey has allowed just 3 runs in his last 2 starts vs the Sox. The Whitesox are 4-13 in July. Look for the Cubs to bounce back.
