SPORTSWAGERS
Boston @ TORONTO
Boston +138 over TORONTO
On the heels of a strong 2015 start in the minors, Eduardo Rodriguez made his major league debut in a spot start on May 28. He ranked #9 to #11 on the top prospects lists for several publications and projects as a solid #2 starter at maturity. Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela by the Baltimore Orioles in 2010, Rodriguez was traded for Andrew Miller July 31, 2014. He’s demonstrated an ability to miss bats, command pitches, and keep the ball on the ground at each stop of his four-plus-year rise through the two systems. Rodriguez boasts three pitches that project to be above-average. His best offering is a plus change-up and his fastball dials up to 95 mph. There is excellent movement on all three pitches, including his low-80s mph slider, and Rodriguez does a nice job of repeating his mechanics and delivery. As the slider continues to develop, Rodriguez has a lot of potential in the coming seasons. Rodriguez has made just six starts so far and you won’t find a starter with a more difficult stretch of games to open up his career against. Thus far, Rodriguez has faced Baltimore twice. He’s also faced the Rangers in Texas, the Royals in Kansas City and the Blue Jays back at Fenway when Toronto was killing it. That covers five of his starts. His one “break” was against the Twins and all he did in that start was throw a seven-inning, two hitter. He now gets the Blue Jays at a time when they’re beginning to labor at the dish. Toronto has scored just four runs at home over their past three games.
As much as we like Rodriguez, this one is more about fading Marco Estrada, whose stock is soaring right now after throwing back-to-back gems and winning five straight overall. Over his last two starts, Estrada has allowed just three hits in 15.2 innings and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in his last start. In fact, he actually toyed with back-to-back no hitters. He finished up his last game going 8.2 shutout innings, while striking out 10 batters and not walking anyone. He threw 129 pitches. He now becomes a serious sell-high candidate because he’s just not that good and because those past two starts had to have taken a toll.
Toronto's youth movement on the mound hasn't quite turned out as planned, as Aaron Sanchez has struggled with his control and fellow youngster Daniel Norris landed in Triple-A earlier back in May. Marco Estrada finds himself the beneficiary of their struggles after not making the rotation out of spring training. Furthermore, Estrada’s negatives outweigh his gains. On the plus side, Estrada can be counted on for K’s, as his he's lifted his swinging strike rate to 11%, although some of that might be attributed to his time in the 'pen. After years of average-but-not-terrible control, it has spiked this season, backed by a drop in first-pitch strike rate, which is 58%. The result is his lowest command since he entered the big leagues. Estrada's gopheritis (giving up HR’s) is well-documented, and it’s been more of the same so far. He's made minor gains by allowing fewer fly-balls, but nothing to suggest a drastic change in approach, as his groundball/fly-ball split is 38%/45%. The move to Toronto’s starting rotation may end up hurting Estrada in the long haul, as AL East ballparks are no place for a fly-ball pitcher to thrive. So far, Estrada has hung in there while putting up some impressive surface numbers but all of his metrics suggests it’s not going to last much longer. Estrada is a great target to attack because his stock is so high and again, he’s just not that good.
Our Pick Boston +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)
Washington @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA +110 over Washington
We suppose it was only a matter of time before the Nationals warmed up and warm up they did with eight straight wins before losing the finale in Philadelphia on Sunday. A close look at their eight-game winning streak is actually not that impressive at all. The Nationals winning streak started with a sweep over the overrated Pirates followed by a sweep at home over these same Braves. The scores vs. the Braves were 3-1, 2-1 and 7-0 and so the first two games against Atlanta could have easily gone the other way. Washington’s final two victories came in Philadelphia over starters Aaron Harang and Kevin Correia by scores of 5-2 and 3-2. Washington’s eight-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday when they lost to rookie Severino Gonzalez and his 8.79 ERA. The Nationals now come into Atlanta as the walking wounded. Likely playing but with some serious nagging injuries will be Bryce Harper (hamstring), Yunel Escobar (hand) and Dernard Span (back issues). Out for sure are Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Jason Werth. An overpriced team will now send out an overpriced pitcher in Jordan Zimmerman.
Zimmermann has been one of the most reliable starters in the National League over the past four seasons, but his numbers are way off so far this year. Let's take a look. Zimmermann bumped up his strikeout rate in 2014, and the gains were supported by his swinging strike rate. He's given it all back and then some so far this year, as he's not getting many swings and misses (6%). He now has just 63 K’s in 92 innings. Zimmerman’s groundball rate this year of 40% is the lowest of his career. His 4.05 xERA is also the worst mark of his career and it’s by a wide margin. Zimmerman’s 1.32 WHIP is above the threshold of 1.30 that is crucial for success. We are now at the half way point in the season and Zimmerman’s numbers aren’t improving. The toll of pitching over 600 innings during the past three seasons and 92 more this year may be catching up to Zimmerman. Further proof of that is a decline in his velocity. Zimmerman’s mound opponent, Shelby Miller, is trending the other way.
Shelby Miller is bringing 94.7 mph heat with late life. His groundball rate has remained solid at 51% but his line-drive rate of 18% puts him among the elite. Miller’s groundball rate/line-drive rate in his last start was off the charts at 67%/6%. Miller has 11 pure quality starts in 15 tries this year. His ERA at home is 1.94 in 40 innings. Miller has a dominant start/disaster start split of 77%/5%, which equals to one disaster this entire year. How difficult has Miller been to hit? Well, consider this number of .236. That’s Miller’s current BABIP (batting average of balls in play). No qualified starter in the major leagues has a figure under .225. Combine Miller’s new devastating cutter, ditching his changeup, and his sinker becoming his most commonly utilized pitch, and you have a pitcher who has been as difficult to hit as any in the game. Now we get him at home as a pooch.
Our Pick ATLANTA +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)
ARIZONA vs Los Angeles
ARIZONA +108 over Los Angeles
The Dodgers lost the opener of this series last night, 10-6. They’re now 16-22 on the road and overall, they’re under .500 against teams above .500. Carlos Frias is a pitcher that we’re watching closely and he’s going to have some value at some point but as the chalk in this game, it is not the time. Frias has a weak 21/39 BB/K split in 65 innings. His 1.52 WHIP is also weak. However, his underlying skills (62% first-pitch strike rate and a 10% swing and miss rate) strongly suggests more K’s and less walks. He also has a rock-solid 55% groundball rate. Frias posted an ugly 5.81 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in May. Coming into this start, his ERA is 4.31. That’s still not pretty but much better than a month ago. The issue is his line-drive rate of 28% over his last five starts, 38% in his last start and 23% on the year. We all know how line-drives play at Chase Field, which is certainly not a suitable park for Frias. Besides that, Frias does not deserve to be favored over Rubby De La Rosa.
Rubby De La Rosa had the profile of a volatile young pitcher coming into 2015. Some might continue to think that way given his 4.69 ERA so far in 2015. Don't follow suit. He has a strong 67%/10% dominant start/disaster start split. In fact, he has put up progressively better skills with each passing month. De La Rosa has featured elite command sub-indicators and a high groundball rate over the last month with 8.4 K’s/9, a 56% GB%, 12% swing and miss rate and a 65% first-pitch strike rate. Over his last three starts, De La Rosa has pitched seven full innings or more in all of them. Over that span covering 22 innings, which includes one start at home and one at Coors Field, he has surrendered just 18 hits and two earned runs. To make that even more impressive, he’s accomplished that by throwing just 92, 103, and 97 pitches respectively over those three starts. Effective and efficient with an xERA of 3.23, buy-low targets don't get any better than De La Rosa.
Our Pick ARIZONA +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)
