Tuesday 6/30/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 63

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 COMOTION NDA OCEAN 8/1


# 7 DINGALINGALING 9/2


# 2 JUSTALOVESONG 8/1


I've got to go with COMOTION NDA OCEAN especially at a long price. The handler wheels this entrant back in next to no time to race again. DINGALINGALING - Her 55 average has this mare with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figs in this race. Ought to be given a chance based on the quite good speed figure put up in the last contest. JUSTALOVESONG - Has performed quite well as of late in route races, posting a nifty 54 avg speed fig. Has some interesting angles which make this entrant a play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 73

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 ASSIST 9/5


# 5 SEVEN MONDAYS 5/2


# 6 PANAMEX 5/1


ASSIST looks respectable to best this field. He has earned very strong figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this group. Overall the speed figures of this horse look competitive in this race. Will most likely go to the front end and should never look back. SEVEN MONDAYS - Has run admirably when running a dirt sprint race. Overall, this trainer has been money-making at this distance/surface. PANAMEX - This pony enters today's contest on Lasix. Is a contender - given the 55 speed rating from his most recent race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MICHAILASHEARTLITE (ML=6/1)
#7 CANDY TUNES (ML=5/1)
#2 SHE'SSOCALIFORNIA (ML=6/1)


MICHAILASHEARTLITE - The return on investment when Lagunes and Sipp team up is tremendous. You have to like this fine animal changing from dirt to turf for the first time. She finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on May 30th. A sign she may take to turf. Have to give this mare a good chance. Ran a sharp race last time around the track within the last month. CANDY TUNES - Based on this mare's recent efforts, she should be aided by this shorter trip. This mare was impressive in finishing first on a slow track on June 17th. A signal that she should do well against these thoroughbreds in her first turf try. I like that recent effort on Jun 17th at Mountaineer where she ended up first. The latest speed fig of 77 is the highest last race fig in the field. The animal with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This racer fits the bill. SHE'SSOCALIFORNIA - Last workout should have legged up this mare for today's race. I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this mare is ready to run today. Mare has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for her. This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the distance-surface.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 COCO COBANA (ML=3/1), #8 CATALONIA (ML=5/1), #5 JUDY'S REFLECTION (ML=8/1),

COCO COBANA - This favorite ran on May 5th and hasn't had a drill since then. Improbable that the rating she registered on May 5th will hold up in this affair. CATALONIA - Had a tough run down the stretch on May 2nd and followed it up with another one. Probably won't see her doing it in today's event. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this racer as a vulnerable competitor. JUDY'S REFLECTION - Pace is so vital, and this speedball is going to have a speed duel on her hands.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 MICHAILASHEARTLITE is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,6,7] with [2,6,7] with [2,4,6,7,9] with [2,4,6,7,9] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #5 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 RAVEN TRAIN (ML=8/1)
#4 FIVE SMALL (ML=20/1)
#7 POTOCHON (ML=4/1)


RAVEN TRAIN - You should overlook that last race at Tampa Bay on a track listed as good where he finished out of the money. Should do well right here on a fast track. FIVE SMALL - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Crichton. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. When a campaigner drops at least 5 lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but should be helpful. POTOCHON - Gonzales and Rodriguez perform well when they unite. It's hard to beat a +159 return on investment for a jock and conditioner. Rider hops back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last out. That's always a big time angle. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this horse, I think his answer would be Gulfstream. This thoroughbred coming off a solid performance in the last month is a solid contender in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FEELS LIKE FLYING (ML=9/5), #1 SMOKING THE FIELD (ML=7/2), #6 CONTRIP (ML=5/1),

FEELS LIKE FLYING - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this early speedball. Many other ponies would have to scratch to improve his hopes. The speed fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underpriced equine. SMOKING THE FIELD - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this one when checking the most recent efforts. This animal doesn't have a winning attitude. Almost always finishes close, but no cigar. CONTRIP - 5/1 is not worth it for any entrant in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event lately.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #2 RAVEN TRAIN to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Tuesday 6/30 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

2,4,5/1,3,79/9/3,7,9 = $36


LATE PICK 4: 3,7,9/1,5,6/1,7/2,9 = $36

MEET STATS: 140 - 454 / $834.50 BEST BETS: 18 - 40 / $64.70

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 38 / $53.20

Best Bet: SOUTHWIND MAYHEM (6th)

Spot Play: REAL RAYE (10th)


Race 1

(4) MYLITTLESTARSHINE was closing latest and fastest last week. Owner/trainer/driver Zeron has this filly primed for a winning effort now; top call in the opener. (6) TORTOLA SUNRISE left hard for the front, took a shuffle then broke in tight quarters in the stretch. He can be a big threat here. (3) MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY raced decently last time but was no threat to the winner at all. He has a chance, obviously, but may not be worth the likely short price.


Race 2

(4) CASIMIR LOW GEAR ships in here on a roll and used a 26 4/5 third 1/4 assault last time at Georgian when taking a new season's mark. He is likely to get aggressive on the backside and try to take control of this dash. (9) INTENDED STYLE just failed to reach a tiring winner late last week and there's no secret where he's heading when the wings of the gate fold open. His good tactical speed make him a threat from any post. (2) I WANNA BE GEARED moves inside which gives him a much better chance to share, likely at a good price.

Race 3

(8) MARKET STRIKE has destroyed two fields at Georgian recently and this step up doesn't appear to be that great. He is 2 for 3 lifetime, facing a group that is 0 for 85 combined; top call. (7) FEDERAL LADY closed quickly down the lane and is showing good improvement. Expect McNair to drive more aggressively early here. (6) JENALEAH was a closing third last week but is starting to get the look of a professional maiden. Beware taking a low price on this filly.

Race 4

(5) BLACK WIDOW BABY was strung out to make front down the backstretch last week and then nailed late by one that had a better trip. She could graduate here. (4) ANISTON SEELSTER challenged the choice first-up and stuck around to finish in the place photo. She's a top contender here. (2) FEISTYS LEGACY has the pedigree to compete right away and O'Sullivan typically sends them ready.

Race 5

(9) DON'T RUSH didn't fire last time when driven by his trainer. With $105K on the line here in this Gold Final he should be put in position to win by catch-driver Christoforou and he should be a square price here. (7) COVERT OPERATIVE finished 4th as a bomb in both his elimination and final of The Goodtimes. Moving into this restricted race expectations go up and price goes down. (3) BOLI has been rock solid when flat and should get a good trip on cover here. Keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 6

(9) SOUTWIND MAYHEM uncorked a furious rally in the final 1/4 of his lone qualifier to win going away. He should be tough in his pari-mutuel debut. (6) ARSENIC saw a similar rally fall just short but obviously has the talent to compete right away. (3) TWIN B MACHNIVEN led until very late in both qualifiers and could take these a long way; keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(3) INFINITI AS broke in his Goodtimes stakes elimination but was a devastating winner two back. He should go much better here back in with Ontario-breds only. (7) WINNING WIZARD took control of his last race with a 27 4/5 third 1/4 brush to the front. He looks like a big threat here. (9) RUBBER DUCK was a close third in the eventful Goodtimes final and figures highly here although the post could do him in.

Race 8

(5) SWEET COLT OF MINE raced okay when moved into the conditioned ranks and now drops back into a claimer. He should be able to work out a good enough trip starting from the middle of the gate to take these. (1) FOREGO THE CIGAR took big money at the windows, won easily with an eye-catching burst then was claimed. He's the one to beat but may not be worth odds-on again which is quite possible. (6) MACH IT BIG drops into a claimer and is likely to be prominent throughout.

Race 9

(1) STRONG HOPE makes a class drop here which should see him on or near the pace throughout along with (7) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL who also drops and is sure to show speed early. Top call to the former who has shown better closing power. (2) BROADWAY PRINCE trotted his best mile in some time last time following a freshening. He may have some things figured out now.

Race 10

(9) REAL KAYE was a good second last time to a winner that was obviously much the best. He's the only 2-time winner in this field taking on several that could be maidens for a while. (2) MULLET BLUE CHIP was a very good runner-up in fast time then missed four weeks; mixed signals with this one who is likely to be a big chalk here. (4) R U MACHIN ME is getting closer and is a good one to fill out tris and supers. (6) GRANTLAND tried it first-over last time and was easily repelled by a strong winner. He could better this placing with a covered trip. (5) FOCUS POWER rarely misses a check; use in bottom slots of vertical wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 6/30 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 181 - 572 / $989.50 BEST BETS: 25 - 45 / $87.90

Best Bet: RANSOM DEMAND (5th)

Spot Play: BRANDOS MUSCLE MAN (7th)


Race 1

(3) DANCINGWITHDELIGHT has really hit his stride in his last few efforts and he should be good to go from this spot. (8) REGGIANO was a good second upon arrival for Burke and Brennan will be firing from the gate. (2) APP HEAVEN finished willingly last out at Saratoga and he figures for a small share here.

Race 2

(4) GIANNI seems to have some ability if he can stay trotting. He's a big question mark here but the price will be right. (5) MASTEROFTHEWIND AS ships in for the Lorentzon barn, which has had plenty of local success; gelding is clearly the one to beat. (3) AFFECTIVE ACTION has been okay with Mark MacDonald in the bike. He should be good for a share here in an otherwise forgettable race.

Race 3

(3) KS HALL was a game winner up at Monticello in his first start for the Jason Ryan barn and Bartlett hops in the bike for his local debut. (7) RALPH R has plenty of stakes experience for Erv and Andy Miller and he should be considered the one to beat but there probably won't be much value there. (2) CHOCOLATE XPLOSION has been a steady check-earner of late.

Race 4

(1) NORTHERN OBSESSION draws best in a pretty competitive field and the filly seems like she has the speed to take these the distance. (4) AGGRESSIVE has ability but staying flat seems to be an issue. (5) BATTLE MAGE closed well in her return and she does have local experience.

Race 5

(3) RANSOM DEMAND finished with good strides in a much-needed race and the gelding should only be better today making his second seasonal start. (2) UPPERCUTZ is usually around but doesn't like to win. (1) JIGGLE IT had no chance in his debut for Lachance from the eight hole; clearly he's going to show more from this spot.

Race 6

(2) PENJI HANOVER was a North America Cup finalist so clearly that makes him the one to beat, but beware, he broke in his lone local appearance. (5) LISCLOON raced much better last out with Lasix added. (4) CC JERMEY flashed good speed in his first start for the Garcia-Herrera barn.

Race 7

(6) BRANDOS MUSCLE MAN has plenty of speed and back class to call upon and the veteran appears to be rounding into shape. He should be forwardly placed and can be near the front, clear of traffic. (4) WESTERN CREDIT hasn't done a whole lot wrong since being claimed by the Harmon barn and he looks for two straight. (3) CASHONTHEROCS returns locally and was making live moves when last seen here.

Race 8

(5) FIRE IN THE CELL, much like my top choice in the 7th race, is a classy veteran from Garcia-Herrera who is currently working herself into shape. She's beaten better than these in the past. (1) MOVEMENT is back at the proper level after being overmatched last out. (2) DREAMSTEELER has been consistent and will look to maintain her form moving into the Banca barn. (10) SCHLIM SCHLAMMA added hobbles and did qualify nicely.

Race 9

(8) STITCH IN TIME took the money last out but broke leaving. I suspect Buter will try leaving the gate again to overcome the outside starting spot in this field full of question marks. (4) TIMMY T lacks the class of others but he's looked good in his two starts for the Rohr barn. (6) FLEX THE MUSCLE has loads of back class for Schnittker and Stratton has been driving that stock with a purpose recently.

Race 10

(4) GAELIC AND GARLIC has found times tough this year but he's competed with and beaten much better than these in the past. (2) ONE MORE KID just missed last week and he should be close up again. (10) SUN OF A VICTORY has been solid at this basement claiming level but he has to overcome a second-tier start.

Race 11

(4) EXPLOSIVE ACTION broke while chasing from the pocket at odds-on when dropped to this level then qualified okay with the trainer in the bike. Erratic gelding can power by this field if in the mood. (2) PRINCE LAUXMONT has been racing just evenly for Banca but he's a player here. (9) DIAMONDS R US has proven she fits with this type but she needs to stay flat and have some racing luck; consider at a price underneath.

Race 12

(1) CARD SHOCK lands the rail again off a wire-to-wire score at odds-on and he should be a much better price today with the likes of (2) MY NAME IS SAM around. The latter ships in off some solid efforts, draws well and looks like the one to beat. (6) SOME PLAYA qualifed effectively for Sabot and could be used in exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delaware Park (1st) Exclusive Ute, 7-2
(3rd) Whattheravenwants, 5-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Moves Your Soul, 8-1
(6th) Ruhl Paul, 8-1


Fort Erie (1st) Ringsforthegirls, 10-1
(7th) Cocowitch, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Black Heir, 5-1
(6th) Aces for John, 6-1


Indiana Grand (5th) Fashion Starlet, 7-2
(7th) Union Bowman, 7-2


Mountaineer (1st) Dolce Lusso, 9-2
(7th) Hot Java, 9-2


Parx Racing (1st) Rebel Rosemary, 6-1
(6th) Warm Heart, 4-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Boardwalk Baron, 7-2
(5th) Loving Partner, 3-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Annabella Hall, 9-2
(7th) Corinthian Spire, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Road Dogs' June 26 2015

A study of baseball road underdogs to this point in the season (June 26) shows it's been a 'Dog-Gone' struggle with road underdogs winning just 43.7% of the games costing backers -$451 at the betting window. To get a better take, we asked our trusted MLB stat crunching machine to break it down by line ranges to see which groups were the best performers. Road Dogs in the lower range (<= $1.50) had 'Lot's of Byte' winning 45.8% of the time (278-329) stuffing +$726 into betting accounts. Road Dogs with some bite were found in the $1.51 to $1.70 range as they won at a 39.5% clip (30-46) cashing +$181 worth of tickets. But, Big Dogs higher than $1.70 were 'All-Bark-No-Bite' posting a 10-34 mark depleting accounts by -$1358. Something to keep in mind as the season progresses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: - Beaten Favorite! June 26 2015

In baseball just because a team is heavily favored does not mean the club will win every time. The baseball season is a long, grueling one and there are days when teams don't give their best efforts. Ace pitchers have an off day, relievers implode, hitters slump and/or costly errors are made.

Diving into our baseball database Heavy Favorites, that is chalk of -$1.70 or higher have won at a 67.8% clip (76-36) this season for a net return of +$745 for backers.

Now, one would assume the 36 mentioned 'Beaten Heavy Favorites' would pick themselves up the following game providing solid betting choices. Well, in sports betting like life itself, Rule Number One - 'Never Assume Anything'. The Beaten Heavy Favorites were far from a sure thing the next outing posting a 19-17 record depleting betting accounts by -$533. Something to keep in mind throughout the season. As always best of luck but above all enjoy the games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Royals (44-29) at Astros (45-34)

Game: 2
Venue: Minute Maid Park
Date: June 30, 2015 8:10 PM EDT

Dallas Keuchel has leveled out some after a six-start stretch that bordered on incredible to begin the season, but opponents still haven't done much to his stellar home numbers.

Nearly all of the balancing has happened on the road, and the left-hander has a shot at pitching the Houston Astros to a series win over the AL-leading Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park.

Keuchel (9-3, 2.17 ERA) is coming off his third complete game and second shutout of the season, surrendering six hits while striking out a career-high 12 in Thursday's 4-0 home win over the New York Yankees.

What may have been his best start of the season followed what was likely his worst when he allowed five runs and five hits - three home runs - in six innings of a 6-3 loss in Seattle on June 20.

"I wanted to take a step back and relax a little coming out of the gate and find my groove," Keuchel said.

He's an MLB-leading 7-0 with an AL-best 1.39 ERA in nine home starts and he's unbeaten in his last 12 at Minute Maid. It's the top home streak for an Astros pitcher since Brett Myers went unbeaten in his first 16 home starts with the club from April 7, 2010-April 17, 2011.

The reason might be that he's kept the ball in the park, surrendering no home runs in Houston in 86 2-3 innings over the 12-start span.

He's 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in two career starts against the Royals, both at home. Alex Rios is 8 for 20 against him and Eric Hosmer is 4 for 6, but it seems unlikely he'll face the latter.

Hosmer missed Monday's 6-1 loss along with Alcides Escobar, and the first baseman isn't expected to appear in the series because of a sprained finger. Escobar was out with a bruised finger.

The Astros (45-34) have allowed two runs and seven hits in their last two games, and they've won four straight against the Royals (44-29) by a combined 27-6.

Salvador Perez went deep for a second straight game as Kansas City's four-game winning streak came to an end.

Chris Carter and Jose Altuve homered for the second time in three games for the Astros, who played without Colby Rasmus for a third straight contest because of an infected bug bite. The outfielder won't return Tuesday, though that might not be such a bad thing because he's 0 for 5 with four strikeouts against Danny Duffy.

The Royals are looking to Duffy (2-3, 5.44) to help the rotation improve on a 5.81 ERA over the last 10 games, though he was quite hittable in his first start back from more than a month off because of a shoulder injury.

The left-hander gave up two runs - one earned - and eight hits in 4 2-3 innings of Wednesday's 8-2 win in Seattle. He's 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA over his last four outings, though this was the best of the bunch after he walked 10 batters in his previous two.

"Yeah, the no walks, that's a good starting point," Duffy told MLB's official website. "Got my pitch count up a little too fast but overall it all felt pretty good."

He's 1-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two starts against Houston with Carter and George Springer each going 1 for 2 with a home run and two walks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Division Rivals Clash'

The Tuesday night matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals at Turner Field looks to be a pitcher's duel. The duel in question will be between the Braves' Shelby Miller (5-3, 1.94 ERA) and Nationals Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 3.42 ERA). Miller was last seen tossing 7 innings of 1 run-ball against Washington and Zimmermann who went 8 innings of no run-ball in a game Nationals won 2-1 in extras. The betting market thinking similar results have Nationals -$1.25 to -$1.30 road favorite. Taking a road favorite can be a risky proposition, though in this case the amount of supporting data in favor of Washington makes it much less risky. The Nationals have managed to pick up 8 wins this season in their 9 games against Atlanta including four handing the ball to Zimmermann. Additionally, Nationals have won 8-of-10 vs a division opponent with the hurler and hit the field 12-5 in Zimmermann's last 17 June starts. On the other side, Braves are just 1-4 in Miller's last five starts and have a 1-7 skid in the right-handers last 8 trips to the mound in June.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tgers June 30, 7:05 EST

When Pittsburgh opens this interleague set in Detroit with Gerrit Cole (11-3 2.16 ERA) handling starting duties Pirates will have conditions on their side. Cole heads to the hill with a smart 6-1 record, 1.71 ERA on the road over eight starts (6-2 TSR). Pirates have won 10 of Cole's last 13 when called upon to open a series. Finally, Pirates have a sparkling 5-0 stretch vs the Junior Circuit with Cole including a win vs Tigers earlier this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

More odds an various college football games this season.......

-- Sept 5: Alabama (-9) over Wisconsin in Arlington, TX

-- Sept 5: Auburn (-11.5) over Louisville in Atlanta

-- Sept 12: Oregon at Michigan State (-1)

-- Sept 25: Boise State (-9) @ Virginia

-- October 3: Notre Dame @ Clemson (-2.5)

-- October 10: Oklahoma (-7.5) vs Texas in Dallas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

MARINERS (Montgomery) @ PADRES (Kennedy) 10:10 PM

Take: PADRES -115

Mike Montgomery has been stellar for the Mariners since finally getting called up for his shot. Montgomery was a very hot prospect coming through the Royals organization, but injuries and control issues stymied his progress. The lefty had basically become a bounce around minor leaguer and was off most radar screens. But Montgomery has been terrific since getting his chance and he looks to maintain the hot run tonight at Petco.

Montgomery does fit a pretty good fade angle here. Playing against pitchers off their first ever complete game shutouts has done reasonably well over the years, and the rookie southpaw is a qualifier on that count. I’m not a great believer in blind angle follows, and need more to line up in that direction. I do think there’s some solid footing here though, as this Padres lineup is at least capable of doing some damage to lefties, particularly at home. It clearly doesn’t always play out that way, but I can definitely see some of the righty thump on the Padres getting some good licks in tonight.

Ian Kennedy will work for San Diego here. Kennedy seems to be back to his old self following a very difficult start to the season. Kennedy is off a loss in which he surrendered a very damaging grand slam after being betrayed by some bad defense. But Kennedy has been mostly good of late and he’s facing a bad offense here. The Mariners have been a flop with the sticks and they’ve been terrible almost all season at delivering with men in scoring position.

San Diego has not been a powerhouse at home and Seattle has actually been better on the road than at Safeco. Montgomery is a hot pitcher, so he’s no snap to fire against right now. But I see this line being a bit on the cheap side and I don’t mind the aforementioned angle as a viable support feature here. I’ll look to play the Padres for the Tuesday comp.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Tuesday Angels w/ Heaney -120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres

Bonus Play Under

I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Mariners & Padres on Tuesday night at PETCO. Ian Kennedy was an absolute disaster in April & May, but he made the adjustments and the right-hander has been as good as it gets in five June starts, allowing just eight earned runs and 35 base runners in 30 innings of work. That's a sizzling, 2.40 ERA & 1.17 WHIP. Seattle's offensive numbers are horrible on the road and I doubt they'll find the "sweet elixir" in this one. Mike Montgomery has pitched well in his first five starts in the Majors, slamming the door on the Royals the last time out. The 25-year old lefty owns a 2.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a .208 BAA in his first five starts. He'll face a Padres' squad that's been almost as bad at home on offense (batting average & OBP) as Seattle has been on the road. The Mariners are 9-0-3 to the Under against NL teams with a losing record and the series is on a 5-1 Under run in San Diego. I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Mariners & Padres on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Tuesday, June 30 is:

Pittsburgh (Cole) over Detroit (Verlander).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Tuesday, June 30

Trend Report

7:05 PM
TEXAS vs. BALTIMORE
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games

7:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee

7:07 PM
BOSTON vs. TORONTO
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games
Toronto is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:08 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

7:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Cleveland is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

7:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MIAMI
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of San Francisco's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games when playing San Francisco

7:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CINCINNATI
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

7:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing NY Mets
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
NY Mets are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

8:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

8:15 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. ST. LOUIS
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chi White Sox's last 14 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

9:40 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Arizona is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Dodgers

10:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 12 games
NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 9 games when playing NY Yankees
LA Angels are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees

10:05 PM
COLORADO vs. OAKLAND
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Colorado is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games when playing Colorado

10:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN DIEGO
Seattle is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA

Tuesday, June 30

Trend Report

7:00 PM
INDIANA vs. CONNECTICUT
Indiana is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Indiana is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Connecticut's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana

8:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games on the road
New York is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games

10:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. PHOENIX
San Antonio is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

10:00 PM
TULSA vs. SEATTLE
Tulsa is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Tulsa is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tulsa

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sleepyj

HOUSTON (-150)

Analysis: Fading Dallas Keuchel has worked out great for the bettors Bookmakers..If you bet against Keuchel at home, the record you hold isn't all that good..In fact you have lost money fading Keuchel at home...He is yet to record a loss in Minute Maid Park and tonight looks to be another win here for Keuchel..Sure the Royals are a tough club to pitch around, but Keuchel at home is just a beast...Keuchel has gone 6+ innings in every start here at home..He also has 2 complete games in 9 home games...He has also pitched 5 games with 0ER in those 9 games...That's very impressive..Keuchel won't over power a lineup..He will just confuse you if he is hitting his marks...The last game he took on a good Yankee hitting team, and that team was so confused and swinging at air for 9 straight innings...Keuchel looked very good and i expect that again here tonight...Astros have my full attention now as they are a good ball club..They have a grit about them and this lineup can produce runs with the power they have on hand.....If you really look at what Houston does at home with the bats, the visting team is going to need 4+ runs to get a win on avg..Houston at home can score runs...KC comes in here tonight fresh off a loss last night to the Astros...KC won 4 games prior to last night as they swept through the A's in Oakland...KC is KC, they are a solid group of players and one of the best teams in the majors..Problem tonight for KC is they have to hand the ball to Duffy on the mound tonight..Duffy has a ERA of 5.44..Now to the credit here for Duffy, he was out for an extended period of time...He had a month layoff and his last game was "ok"...He only went 4.2 innings, but he did surrender 8 hits and 1 ER...I'm a little worried about that amount of hits...Duffy only has 2 wins on the year and 1 of them has come on the road...Duffy has not seen the power of this Astros lineup this year..I believe he will see that tonight...This is a complete pitching mismatch in my eyes..Houston at home is a tough out with how they can score runs...If Keuchel brings the stuff he brought in his last game the Astros won't lose tonight against Duffy and Co.