MLB Daily Line Drive: Tuesday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (+160, 8)
Red Sox starter Chris Sale returns to his former home to face the White Sox in a matchup of aces on Tuesday evening.
Sale, of course, spent the first seven seasons of his career on the South Side of Chicago as a member of the White Sox and was shipped off to the Red Sox in the offseason as part of their current rebuilding process. Sale has been exactly what the Red Sox expected - he's been electric and has already surpassed the 100 strikeout mark on the season after only 10 starts. He is highly motivated to face his former team today and we wouldn't be surprised to see him flirt with something truly special this evening and give his fans in Chicago a treat.
Sale will be countered on the mound by Jose Quintana. Quintana is in full-on showcase mode with the White Sox surely to move him at some point this summer - and who better to showcase for than the Boston Red Sox. While he hasn't exactly been lights out thus far in 2017, whenever we need an Under in our picks we look to a Jose Quintana start. He's 2-0 on Unders for us this season, Under is 7-2 in his last 9 starts, and was MLB's "King of the Under" last season which included a string of 13 consecutive Under starts.
The wind should not be a factor today at 5-7 miles per hour, Under has cashed in Boston's last five overall, no Pedroia in the lineup today (returned to Boston for MRI on his injured wrist), Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings at Guaranteed Rate Field (formerly U.S. Cellular Field), and Jim Reynolds is a pitcher-friendly umpire with a lofty strike percentage of 63.95 percent.
Pick: Under 8
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-115, 9)
The Twins and Astros lit up the scoreboard on Monday night combining for a whopping 24 runs in a 16-8 Houston victory. Will these two American League division leaders have more runs in store for us as they continue their series in Minnesota Tuesday night?
The Astros have the best record in the Big Leagues thanks to the most balanced roster in baseball, ranking in the top three in runs, average, OPS, home runs, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Today however, we are focused on the offense. The Astros have scored more runs away from home than any other team in baseball with 137. They also rank 1st in batting average and second in OPS away from Minute Maid Park. Additionally, the Astros have plated a jaw-dropping 41 runs in the last three games against the Twins.
That seems like a tall task for Twins starter Jose Berrios. The 23-year-old right-hander has been dealing of late, but he hasn’t faced anything like this Astros offense and he has had trouble with Houston in the past. He has pitched to a 8.59 ERA and a 3.176 WHIP with four strikeouts and nine walks in two career starts against the Astros.
Berrios also hasn’t been as strong at Target Field over the course of his short career going just 1-5 in seven starts there with a 7.47 ERA.
Meanwhile the Astros counter with Mike Fiers. The veteran right-hander has been one of the lone low points of the Astros season, pitching to a 5.40 ERA and faces a Twins lineup that has actually scored 6.1 runs per game over the last eight games.
It’s not crazy to think these two teams still saved some runs for Tuesday - and their bullpens are plenty banged up.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 47-39-4
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (4-3, 3.45 ERA, $138)
Has Robbie Ray turned the corner as a Major League starting pitcher? He's been fade material for his first two seasons as a full-time starting pitcher but he seems to have figured it out. He's been a bit hit-and-miss for the season overall, but over his last two starts Ray has allowed zero earned runs on only four hits while piling up 15 strikeouts over those 14.2 innings pitched. What is happening!
Can Robbie Ray continue his mastery of the art of pitching? If you think so the Diamondbacks are available at -115 on the road against Ivan Nova and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Atlanta Braves (2-5, 6.96 ERA, $214)
Bartolo Colon has not been good as an Atlanta Braves starting pitcher - it's as simple as that.
"Big Sexy" currently owns an ERA of 6.96, an opponent's on base percentage of .359, he's only struck out 34 batters in 10 starts, and his 2017 WAR rating is currently at -0.9. In his last start against the Pirates, Colon gave up seven runs over five innings and allowed 10 hits and walked three in the Mets' 9-4 loss. Ugly stuff.
Bartolo is starting on the road in Anaheim tonight against the Trout-less Angels and can be had as a +105 underdog.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Under is 16-2 in Chris Tillman's last 18 starts overall. Yankees/Orioles Total: 9.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. +165 today @ Blue Jays.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Nationals and Giants in San Francisco. Nationals/Giants Total: 7.5.
* The Chicago Cubs have lost their last six road games. -140 tonight @ Padres.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
The only game to really be threatened by wet weather today is the matchup between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. There is a 50 percent chance of rain with the possibility of thunderstorms developing in the area. The total is set at 9.
There will be a hitter's wind in Minneapolis (10-15 miles per hour out to right-center) for today's game between the Twins and Astros. The total is set at 9 and Over in this game is one of our picks for today (see picks above).
There will also be a 20 mile per hour wind blowing out in San Francisco for tonight's fight...err...game between the Giants and Nationals. Just a reminder to all of you weather watchers that due to the design of AT&T Park the wind has a minimal impact on ball flight - this is the standard wind for a Giants home game.
Ump Of The Day
Mark Wegner: Not great news for the Los Angeles Dodgers when it comes to the umpire assignment for tonight's game in St. Louis against the Cardinals. Mark Wegner will be calling balls and strikes and the home team has won nine of his last 10 games behind the plate.
If that weren't bad enough for the Dodgers, they are 0-4 in their last four games with Wegner and the Cards have won 4 of their last 5 Tuesday games with Mark Wegner wearing the pads.
The Cardinals are +115 home underdogs today.
