Info Plays
Apr 11 '17, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Orioles vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox -128 at Bovada
1* Bonus Play on Red Sox -128
I'm taking Red Sox tonight. Here are some systems backing our pick. Boston is 78-40 (+34.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games with no home runs since 1997. Baltimore is 40-64 (-24.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. BET RED SOX!
Apr 11 '17, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Orioles vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox -128 at Bovada
1* Bonus Play on Red Sox -128
I'm taking Red Sox tonight. Here are some systems backing our pick. Boston is 78-40 (+34.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games with no home runs since 1997. Baltimore is 40-64 (-24.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. BET RED SOX!
Teddy Davis
Apr 11 '17, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Brewers vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -1½ +110 at betonline
Blue Jays are now due for a blowout win. They will get a great chance here going against Willy Peralta who I am no fan of. Sure he had a good first outing but I need to see more than one game to believe it. Jays are off to a rough start but now have had a day of rest and returning home for their first game of the season. The excitement will be there and I believe they win easily here
Apr 11 '17, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Brewers vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -1½ +110 at betonline
Blue Jays are now due for a blowout win. They will get a great chance here going against Willy Peralta who I am no fan of. Sure he had a good first outing but I need to see more than one game to believe it. Jays are off to a rough start but now have had a day of rest and returning home for their first game of the season. The excitement will be there and I believe they win easily here
Jack Jones
Apr 11 '17, 10:10 PM in 9h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +114 at betonline
Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Seattle Mariners +114
The Seattle Mariners have gotten off to a rough 2-6 start this season. They played their first seven games on the road though against the Astros and Angels, and lost three times by one run while blowing numerous leads late.
The Mariners played their home opener yesterday and won 6-0. Now I look for them to add another win Tuesday behind Ariel Miranda, who is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Houston.
Miranda faced Joe Musgrove in Houston in his first start this season and took him down. He was a +135 underdog in that matchup, and now he's a home underdog again in the rematch. I think the value is there to pull the trigger here.
Seattle is a sensational 14-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. The Mariners are 6-1 in Miranda's last seven starts. Seattle is 6-0 in Miranda's last six starts vs. AL West opponents. Bet the Mariners Tuesday.
Apr 11 '17, 10:10 PM in 9h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +114 at betonline
Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Seattle Mariners +114
The Seattle Mariners have gotten off to a rough 2-6 start this season. They played their first seven games on the road though against the Astros and Angels, and lost three times by one run while blowing numerous leads late.
The Mariners played their home opener yesterday and won 6-0. Now I look for them to add another win Tuesday behind Ariel Miranda, who is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Houston.
Miranda faced Joe Musgrove in Houston in his first start this season and took him down. He was a +135 underdog in that matchup, and now he's a home underdog again in the rematch. I think the value is there to pull the trigger here.
Seattle is a sensational 14-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. The Mariners are 6-1 in Miranda's last seven starts. Seattle is 6-0 in Miranda's last six starts vs. AL West opponents. Bet the Mariners Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Apr 11 '17, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Orioles vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox -115 at 5Dimes
Free Pick on Red Sox -
I really like the value here with Boston as a short home favorite against the Orioles. The Red Sox aren't going to take this one lightly, as they just lost 3 of 4 at Detroit. They are a perfect 2-0 at home and I just don't think they are getting enough respect with the game being at Fenway. Baltimore will give the ball to Dylan Bundy, who is a promising young starter and fresh off a great first start against the Blue Jays, where he allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings. That was at home, where Bundy had a 3.14 ERA in 19 appearances (8 starts) last season. He had a 5.21 ERA on the road and was absolutely awful in his 3 starts against the Red Sox, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.978 WHIP, while failing to complete 6 innings in all 3 outings.
Boston counters with Drew Pomeranz, who is a big wild card for this season. Pomeranz was outstanding with the Padres early last year, but really struggled after coming over to the Red Sox in a trade. The thing is, he wasn't 100% and his numbers were going to get worse going from the NL West to the AL East. He got things squared away in the offseason and while he will be limited in his first outing, I expect him to pitch well. Even if he doesn't, still a great chance the Red Sox offense bails us out for the win. Take Boston!
Apr 11 '17, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Orioles vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox -115 at 5Dimes
Free Pick on Red Sox -
I really like the value here with Boston as a short home favorite against the Orioles. The Red Sox aren't going to take this one lightly, as they just lost 3 of 4 at Detroit. They are a perfect 2-0 at home and I just don't think they are getting enough respect with the game being at Fenway. Baltimore will give the ball to Dylan Bundy, who is a promising young starter and fresh off a great first start against the Blue Jays, where he allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings. That was at home, where Bundy had a 3.14 ERA in 19 appearances (8 starts) last season. He had a 5.21 ERA on the road and was absolutely awful in his 3 starts against the Red Sox, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.978 WHIP, while failing to complete 6 innings in all 3 outings.
Boston counters with Drew Pomeranz, who is a big wild card for this season. Pomeranz was outstanding with the Padres early last year, but really struggled after coming over to the Red Sox in a trade. The thing is, he wasn't 100% and his numbers were going to get worse going from the NL West to the AL East. He got things squared away in the offseason and while he will be limited in his first outing, I expect him to pitch well. Even if he doesn't, still a great chance the Red Sox offense bails us out for the win. Take Boston!
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, April 11
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CHARLOTTE (36 - 45) at ATLANTA (42 - 38) - 4/11/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 7-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 6-5 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OKLAHOMA CITY (46 - 34) at MINNESOTA (31 - 49) - 4/11/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 54-74 ATS (-27.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-30 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 176-130 ATS (+33.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MINNESOTA is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
MINNESOTA is 49-70 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (38 - 42) at DALLAS (32 - 48) - 4/11/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 43-35 ATS (+4.5 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ORLEANS (33 - 47) at LA LAKERS (25 - 55) - 4/11/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 121-157 ATS (-51.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 72-87 ATS (-23.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 154-199 ATS (-64.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 7-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHOENIX (24 - 57) at SACRAMENTO (31 - 49) - 4/11/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 8-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 8-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Tuesday, April 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHARLOTTE (36 - 45) at ATLANTA (42 - 38) - 4/11/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 7-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 6-5 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OKLAHOMA CITY (46 - 34) at MINNESOTA (31 - 49) - 4/11/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 54-74 ATS (-27.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-30 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 176-130 ATS (+33.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MINNESOTA is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
MINNESOTA is 49-70 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (38 - 42) at DALLAS (32 - 48) - 4/11/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 43-35 ATS (+4.5 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ORLEANS (33 - 47) at LA LAKERS (25 - 55) - 4/11/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 121-157 ATS (-51.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 72-87 ATS (-23.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 154-199 ATS (-64.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 7-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHOENIX (24 - 57) at SACRAMENTO (31 - 49) - 4/11/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 8-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 8-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, April 11
Phoenix @ Sacramento
Game 509-510
April 11, 2017 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
112.738
Sacramento
118.373
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 5 1/2
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 3 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(-3 1/2); Under
New Orleans @ LA Lakers
Game 507-508
April 11, 2017 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
115.601
LA Lakers
122.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 3
217
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-3); Under
Denver @ Dallas
Game 505-506
April 11, 2017 @ 8:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
121.749
Dallas
117.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
Pick
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
Over
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
Game 503-504
April 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
118.536
Minnesota
119.594
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+4 1/2); Over
Charlotte @ Atlanta
Game 501-502
April 11, 2017 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
116.204
Atlanta
120.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7 1/2
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+7 1/2); Over
Dunkel
Tuesday, April 11
Phoenix @ Sacramento
Game 509-510
April 11, 2017 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
112.738
Sacramento
118.373
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 5 1/2
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 3 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(-3 1/2); Under
New Orleans @ LA Lakers
Game 507-508
April 11, 2017 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
115.601
LA Lakers
122.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 3
217
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-3); Under
Denver @ Dallas
Game 505-506
April 11, 2017 @ 8:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
121.749
Dallas
117.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
Pick
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
Over
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
Game 503-504
April 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
118.536
Minnesota
119.594
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+4 1/2); Over
Charlotte @ Atlanta
Game 501-502
April 11, 2017 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
116.204
Atlanta
120.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7 1/2
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+7 1/2); Over
NBA
Short Sheet
Tuesday, April 11
Charlotte at Atlanta, 7:35 PM ET
Charlotte: 19-10 UNDER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Atlanta: 19-32 ATS as a favorite
Oklahoma City at Minnesota, 8:05 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 30-16 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent
Minnesota: 20-46 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less
Denver at Dallas, 8:35 PM ET
Denver: 11-0 OVER on the road when the line is +3 to -3
Dallas: 21-10 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent
New Orleans at LA Lakers, 10:35 PM ET
New Orleans: 44-23 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses
Los Angeles: 15-5 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins
Phoenix at Sacramento, 10:35 PM ET
Phoenix: 4-14 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more
Sacramento: 77-56 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Short Sheet
Tuesday, April 11
Charlotte at Atlanta, 7:35 PM ET
Charlotte: 19-10 UNDER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Atlanta: 19-32 ATS as a favorite
Oklahoma City at Minnesota, 8:05 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 30-16 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent
Minnesota: 20-46 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less
Denver at Dallas, 8:35 PM ET
Denver: 11-0 OVER on the road when the line is +3 to -3
Dallas: 21-10 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent
New Orleans at LA Lakers, 10:35 PM ET
New Orleans: 44-23 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses
Los Angeles: 15-5 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins
Phoenix at Sacramento, 10:35 PM ET
Phoenix: 4-14 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more
Sacramento: 77-56 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
MLB
Short Sheet
Tuesday, April 11
Atlanta at Miami, 7:10 PM ET
Colon: ATLANTA is 37-30 SU when the total is 8 to 8.5
Straily: MIAMI is 14-22 SU in home games against division opponents
St Louis at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
Lynn: ST LOUIS is 14-5 SU in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Gonzalez: WASHINGTON is 30-15 OVER in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3
NY Mets at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Harvey: NY METS are 17-3 SU off a one run win over a division rival
Buchholz: PHILADELPHIA is 127-88 OVER in home games revenging a one run loss to opponent
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 7:05 PM ET
Davis: CINCINNATI is 62-56 SU in road games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings
Taillon: PITTSBURGH is 12-2 OVER in home games after scoring 1 run or less
San Diego at Colorado, 8:40 PM ET
Weaver: SAN DIEGO is 31-29 SU after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival
Senzatela: COLORADO is 195-152 OVER in home games after 3 straight games without a stolen base
Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 PM ET
Ray: ARIZONA is 51-32 OVER after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Samardzija: SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 SU after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span
Minnesota at Detroit, 1:10 PM ET
Santiago: MINNESOTA is 33-62 SU as an underdog of +100 to +150
Boyd: DETROIT is 48-24 sU when the money line is -100 to -150
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 4:10 PM ET
Shields: CHI WHITE SOX are 63-44 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher
Carrasco: CLEVELAND is 28-9 sU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5
Baltimore at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Bundy: BALTIMORE is 45-26 SU after 2 or more consecutive home games
Pomeranz: 15-2 UNDER as a favorite of -110 or higher
Texas at LA Angels, 10:05 PM ET
Hamels: TEXAS is 16-8 SU after allowing 1 run or less
Skaggs: LA ANGELS are 54-34 UNDER against left-handed starters
Houston at Seattle, 10:10 PM ET
Musgrove: HOUSTON is 9-1 SU in road games after scoring 1 run or less
Miranda: SEATTLE is 92-57 UNDER after allowing one run or less in a win over a division riva
Milwaukee at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET
Peralta: MILWAUKEE is 24-14 SU after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7
Happ: TORONTO is 25-10 UNDER after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals
*TSR = Team Start Record
Short Sheet
Tuesday, April 11
Atlanta at Miami, 7:10 PM ET
Colon: ATLANTA is 37-30 SU when the total is 8 to 8.5
Straily: MIAMI is 14-22 SU in home games against division opponents
St Louis at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
Lynn: ST LOUIS is 14-5 SU in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Gonzalez: WASHINGTON is 30-15 OVER in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3
NY Mets at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Harvey: NY METS are 17-3 SU off a one run win over a division rival
Buchholz: PHILADELPHIA is 127-88 OVER in home games revenging a one run loss to opponent
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 7:05 PM ET
Davis: CINCINNATI is 62-56 SU in road games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings
Taillon: PITTSBURGH is 12-2 OVER in home games after scoring 1 run or less
San Diego at Colorado, 8:40 PM ET
Weaver: SAN DIEGO is 31-29 SU after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival
Senzatela: COLORADO is 195-152 OVER in home games after 3 straight games without a stolen base
Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 PM ET
Ray: ARIZONA is 51-32 OVER after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Samardzija: SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 SU after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span
Minnesota at Detroit, 1:10 PM ET
Santiago: MINNESOTA is 33-62 SU as an underdog of +100 to +150
Boyd: DETROIT is 48-24 sU when the money line is -100 to -150
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 4:10 PM ET
Shields: CHI WHITE SOX are 63-44 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher
Carrasco: CLEVELAND is 28-9 sU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5
Baltimore at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Bundy: BALTIMORE is 45-26 SU after 2 or more consecutive home games
Pomeranz: 15-2 UNDER as a favorite of -110 or higher
Texas at LA Angels, 10:05 PM ET
Hamels: TEXAS is 16-8 SU after allowing 1 run or less
Skaggs: LA ANGELS are 54-34 UNDER against left-handed starters
Houston at Seattle, 10:10 PM ET
Musgrove: HOUSTON is 9-1 SU in road games after scoring 1 run or less
Miranda: SEATTLE is 92-57 UNDER after allowing one run or less in a win over a division riva
Milwaukee at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET
Peralta: MILWAUKEE is 24-14 SU after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7
Happ: TORONTO is 25-10 UNDER after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals
*TSR = Team Start Record
MLB
Tuesday, April 11
Tuesday's MLB Game of the Day: Orioles at Red Sox
Pomeranz originally was slated to make his season debut over the weekend in Detroit before a rainout on Thursday curtailed that plan.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (A: -105, H: -115, Total: 9.5)
What oddsmakers consider most when making MLB betting odds: Live From Las Vegas
Ever wonder what goes into those daily MLB moneylines and totals? We get the inside story behind the numbers from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas.
It may only be a week into the regular season, but the early story of the Boston Red Sox's campaign has been manager John Farrell's inability to fill out a lineup card in the way he had hoped during spring training. One day after placing Jackie Bradley Jr. on the disabled list, the Red Sox expect to get back Xander Bogaerts from bereavement leave on Tuesday as they return home to begin a two-game series with the Baltimore Orioles.
Farrell told reporters Monday the clubhouse at Fenway Park was fumigated and disinfected a few times while Boston was visiting Detroit over the weekend in an effort to fight a flu bug that has sidelined Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts while also sending reliever Robbie Ross to the disabled list. To add further insult to injury, Bradley joined Ross on the 10-day DL on Monday after learning he suffered a right knee sprain, while Bogaerts' return from Aruba was delayed a day when his flight never was cleared for takeoff Sunday night. The Orioles took a day off Monday to lick their wounds after becoming the last major-league team to suffer a loss in Sunday's 7-3 setback against the New York Yankees. Baltimore's dominant bullpen imploded in that defeat, as its relievers were charged with every run - including four in the ninth inning to Darren O'Day.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MASN2 (Baltimore), NESN (Boston)
LINE HISTORY: The Red Sox opened at -120 and that moneyline has come back slightly to -115. The total hit the board at 9.5 and hasn't moved.
INJURY REPORT:
Orioles - CF J. Rickard (Out Indefinitely, finger), SP C. Tillman (Early May, shoulder), OF A. Santander (Out Indefinitely, elbow).
Red Sox - X. Bogaerts (Probable, personal), 1B H. Ramirez (Questionable, flu), RP J. Kelly (Questionable, flu), CF J. Bradley Jr. (Out, knee), SP D. Price (Early May, elbow), RP R. Ross Jr. (Late April, flu), SP D. Pomeranz (Probable, arm), RP C. Smith (Early June, elbow), RP T. Thornburg (Late April, shoulder).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful evening for baseball at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Evening temperatures are expected to be in the low-70's with partly cloudy skies. Hitters may enjoy the wind as there is a 10-15 MPH wind in the forecast blowing OUT to left center.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Drew Pomeranz (2016: 11-12, 3.32)
Bundy allowed one run and four singles while registering eight strikeouts over seven innings in a win against Toronto on Wednesday. The fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft threw 69 of his 99 pitches for strikes and did not issue a walk as he limited the Blue Jays to one hit outside of a stretch in the third inning, when he gave up three straight. Bundy went 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in six games (three starts) versus Boston last season and struggled against the two hitters he has faced the most: Bogaerts (4-for-12) and Dustin Pedroia (5-for-11).
Pomeranz originally was slated to make his season debut over the weekend in Detroit before a rainout on Thursday curtailed that plan, so he will draw his first start in the opener of this series instead after dealing with a flexor strain and a triceps issue during the spring. The 28-year-old struggled at Fenway after arriving from San Diego in a mid-July trade, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in seven appearances (six starts). One of those poor home outings came in his lone 2016 start versus the Orioles, as he gave up five runs - including a pair of homers - over only two innings.
TRENDS:
* Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
* Red Sox are 1-4 in Pomeranz's last 5 home starts.
* Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 4-0 in Bundy's last 4 starts overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 10-1-1 in Pomeranz's last 12 starts overall.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Orioles CF Adam Jones and 1B Chris Davis have homered in the same game 36 times since becoming teammates in 2011 - the highest total for any teammates over that span.
2. Boston is the only team that has yet to allow a stolen base, as Cs Sandy Leon (three) and Christian Vazquez (one) have thrown out the runner on each of their four attempts.
3. All seven of the runs Baltimore's bullpen has allowed in 20 2/3 innings this season came in Sunday's loss to the Yankees.
CONSENSUS: Early consensus on this rivalry matchup has 62 percent of the wagers on the home team Boston Red Sox and Over is picking up 52 percent of the totals selections.
Tuesday, April 11
Tuesday's MLB Game of the Day: Orioles at Red Sox
Pomeranz originally was slated to make his season debut over the weekend in Detroit before a rainout on Thursday curtailed that plan.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (A: -105, H: -115, Total: 9.5)
What oddsmakers consider most when making MLB betting odds: Live From Las Vegas
Ever wonder what goes into those daily MLB moneylines and totals? We get the inside story behind the numbers from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas.
It may only be a week into the regular season, but the early story of the Boston Red Sox's campaign has been manager John Farrell's inability to fill out a lineup card in the way he had hoped during spring training. One day after placing Jackie Bradley Jr. on the disabled list, the Red Sox expect to get back Xander Bogaerts from bereavement leave on Tuesday as they return home to begin a two-game series with the Baltimore Orioles.
Farrell told reporters Monday the clubhouse at Fenway Park was fumigated and disinfected a few times while Boston was visiting Detroit over the weekend in an effort to fight a flu bug that has sidelined Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts while also sending reliever Robbie Ross to the disabled list. To add further insult to injury, Bradley joined Ross on the 10-day DL on Monday after learning he suffered a right knee sprain, while Bogaerts' return from Aruba was delayed a day when his flight never was cleared for takeoff Sunday night. The Orioles took a day off Monday to lick their wounds after becoming the last major-league team to suffer a loss in Sunday's 7-3 setback against the New York Yankees. Baltimore's dominant bullpen imploded in that defeat, as its relievers were charged with every run - including four in the ninth inning to Darren O'Day.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MASN2 (Baltimore), NESN (Boston)
LINE HISTORY: The Red Sox opened at -120 and that moneyline has come back slightly to -115. The total hit the board at 9.5 and hasn't moved.
INJURY REPORT:
Orioles - CF J. Rickard (Out Indefinitely, finger), SP C. Tillman (Early May, shoulder), OF A. Santander (Out Indefinitely, elbow).
Red Sox - X. Bogaerts (Probable, personal), 1B H. Ramirez (Questionable, flu), RP J. Kelly (Questionable, flu), CF J. Bradley Jr. (Out, knee), SP D. Price (Early May, elbow), RP R. Ross Jr. (Late April, flu), SP D. Pomeranz (Probable, arm), RP C. Smith (Early June, elbow), RP T. Thornburg (Late April, shoulder).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful evening for baseball at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Evening temperatures are expected to be in the low-70's with partly cloudy skies. Hitters may enjoy the wind as there is a 10-15 MPH wind in the forecast blowing OUT to left center.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Drew Pomeranz (2016: 11-12, 3.32)
Bundy allowed one run and four singles while registering eight strikeouts over seven innings in a win against Toronto on Wednesday. The fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft threw 69 of his 99 pitches for strikes and did not issue a walk as he limited the Blue Jays to one hit outside of a stretch in the third inning, when he gave up three straight. Bundy went 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in six games (three starts) versus Boston last season and struggled against the two hitters he has faced the most: Bogaerts (4-for-12) and Dustin Pedroia (5-for-11).
Pomeranz originally was slated to make his season debut over the weekend in Detroit before a rainout on Thursday curtailed that plan, so he will draw his first start in the opener of this series instead after dealing with a flexor strain and a triceps issue during the spring. The 28-year-old struggled at Fenway after arriving from San Diego in a mid-July trade, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in seven appearances (six starts). One of those poor home outings came in his lone 2016 start versus the Orioles, as he gave up five runs - including a pair of homers - over only two innings.
TRENDS:
* Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
* Red Sox are 1-4 in Pomeranz's last 5 home starts.
* Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 4-0 in Bundy's last 4 starts overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 10-1-1 in Pomeranz's last 12 starts overall.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Orioles CF Adam Jones and 1B Chris Davis have homered in the same game 36 times since becoming teammates in 2011 - the highest total for any teammates over that span.
2. Boston is the only team that has yet to allow a stolen base, as Cs Sandy Leon (three) and Christian Vazquez (one) have thrown out the runner on each of their four attempts.
3. All seven of the runs Baltimore's bullpen has allowed in 20 2/3 innings this season came in Sunday's loss to the Yankees.
CONSENSUS: Early consensus on this rivalry matchup has 62 percent of the wagers on the home team Boston Red Sox and Over is picking up 52 percent of the totals selections.
Sleepyj
Atlanta -7.5
Big game for the Hawks and really the only game that means anything today. The rest fo the games have no playoff implications at all. So be careful betting the NBA today....Look the Hawks can improve the seeding they have with two wins in the last two remaining games...Hawks get a home game here and it's the final home game for them of the season. They finish with the Pacers on the road and that will be a tough out because the Pacers will need that game to lock them into the playoffs...So this one sets up nice for Atlanta tonight....Hornets can play the roll of spoiler, but in most cases I would rarely look at the dog in this specific spot....Kemba Walker is OUT and the Hornets have now lost 4 straight...Since being knocked out of the playoffs the Hornets have had little life in them what so ever....This is the Hornets final game of the season and it's vacation time right around half-time I would say...They gain nothing from winning and I expect that kind of mindset and attitude from them tonight...Hawks are trying to improve before the playoffs and this game sets up nice for them tonight...I expect a big winner and this rated a 2** play that was to be my premium. We get it free today.
Atlanta -7.5
Big game for the Hawks and really the only game that means anything today. The rest fo the games have no playoff implications at all. So be careful betting the NBA today....Look the Hawks can improve the seeding they have with two wins in the last two remaining games...Hawks get a home game here and it's the final home game for them of the season. They finish with the Pacers on the road and that will be a tough out because the Pacers will need that game to lock them into the playoffs...So this one sets up nice for Atlanta tonight....Hornets can play the roll of spoiler, but in most cases I would rarely look at the dog in this specific spot....Kemba Walker is OUT and the Hornets have now lost 4 straight...Since being knocked out of the playoffs the Hornets have had little life in them what so ever....This is the Hornets final game of the season and it's vacation time right around half-time I would say...They gain nothing from winning and I expect that kind of mindset and attitude from them tonight...Hawks are trying to improve before the playoffs and this game sets up nice for them tonight...I expect a big winner and this rated a 2** play that was to be my premium. We get it free today.
3G-Sports
Denver vs. Dallas
Play: Dallas Pk
Denver has been shooting lights out, and they can put up points, as their 112 ppg but they were eilimated from the playoffs on Sunday night. Dallas has to adjust more than a bit, defenses are switching things up vs them - especially on the transition of them when they try to get moving fast up court. Dallas, for what it's worth, has not been defending the ball as good as they were doing earlier in the season. They've also been eliminated but I like the Mavs at home on Tuesday night.
Denver vs. Dallas
Play: Dallas Pk
Denver has been shooting lights out, and they can put up points, as their 112 ppg but they were eilimated from the playoffs on Sunday night. Dallas has to adjust more than a bit, defenses are switching things up vs them - especially on the transition of them when they try to get moving fast up court. Dallas, for what it's worth, has not been defending the ball as good as they were doing earlier in the season. They've also been eliminated but I like the Mavs at home on Tuesday night.
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves +120
The Braves fit a nice dog system here that pertains to teams that are off a 1 run road dog loss vs a team like the Marlins that are also off a road loss. The Braves have Colon on the mound and he was solid going 6 strong allowing 1 run last out. He is 8-1 as an April road dog and has won 3 of 4 in Miami. Straily for the fish was knocked around in his first start and has lost 3 of 4 home April starts. The Braves have won 9 straight vs a team that allowed 5 or more runs in last game. The Marlins have lost 4 of 5 off a road trip of 7+ days dating to last year.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves +120
The Braves fit a nice dog system here that pertains to teams that are off a 1 run road dog loss vs a team like the Marlins that are also off a road loss. The Braves have Colon on the mound and he was solid going 6 strong allowing 1 run last out. He is 8-1 as an April road dog and has won 3 of 4 in Miami. Straily for the fish was knocked around in his first start and has lost 3 of 4 home April starts. The Braves have won 9 straight vs a team that allowed 5 or more runs in last game. The Marlins have lost 4 of 5 off a road trip of 7+ days dating to last year.
Mike Anthony
Charlotte vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -7.5
Charlotte has to stay on the right track thought the game. Charlotte are a more efficient team when it comes to defensive rebounding the ball, along with excellent ball control. Charlotte can also actually defend the ball better than most as their 12th ranked oppg proves. Atlanta has to not get lazy defending the 3 ball attack of Charlotte with Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are both capable of sticking their share of treys - problem is that Atlanta have given up more than their share of games of allowing teams to score 25+ from behind the arc. Atlanta doesn't have enough faith in their scoring anywhere near quite good enough to hold on - even at home. Charlotte wins this one by double digits points.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -7.5
Charlotte has to stay on the right track thought the game. Charlotte are a more efficient team when it comes to defensive rebounding the ball, along with excellent ball control. Charlotte can also actually defend the ball better than most as their 12th ranked oppg proves. Atlanta has to not get lazy defending the 3 ball attack of Charlotte with Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are both capable of sticking their share of treys - problem is that Atlanta have given up more than their share of games of allowing teams to score 25+ from behind the arc. Atlanta doesn't have enough faith in their scoring anywhere near quite good enough to hold on - even at home. Charlotte wins this one by double digits points.
Chip Chirimbes
Rangers at Angels
Play: Angels -109
Baseball is the longest of seasons with trends becoming a large part of handicapping winners over the course of the year. This matchup has a number of trends that just can't be ignored. The start with the Angels who are 3-0 already at home are now 10-1 in their last 11 as hosts while Texas is 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Rangers are 19-26 all-time in its first road game of the season including four straight losses. Add that L.A. Is 36-22 against the Rangers the past three years regardless of who is pitching.
Rangers at Angels
Play: Angels -109
Baseball is the longest of seasons with trends becoming a large part of handicapping winners over the course of the year. This matchup has a number of trends that just can't be ignored. The start with the Angels who are 3-0 already at home are now 10-1 in their last 11 as hosts while Texas is 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Rangers are 19-26 all-time in its first road game of the season including four straight losses. Add that L.A. Is 36-22 against the Rangers the past three years regardless of who is pitching.
Wunderdog
Texas @ Los Angeles
Pick: Texas +103
The Angels have started fast at 5-2, while the Rangers are a disappointing 2-4 out of the gate. The Rangers are the vastly superior team as including the playoffs, they have won 90+ games in six of the last seven seasons. They have their ace, Cole Hamels, ready to deliver in this one. He has pitched the Rangers to a 35-11 mark in his last 46 starts, with the Rangers winning those games by an average of 1.33 runs per contest. He is 3-1 over the same period vs. LA, winning by 2.5 runs per contest. Tyler Skaggs has a career mark of 19-23, with opponents scoring 4.67 runs per game. The Rangers have plated 6.75 runs per game against him in his four starts. The door is open for the Rangers, so play on Texas.
Texas @ Los Angeles
Pick: Texas +103
The Angels have started fast at 5-2, while the Rangers are a disappointing 2-4 out of the gate. The Rangers are the vastly superior team as including the playoffs, they have won 90+ games in six of the last seven seasons. They have their ace, Cole Hamels, ready to deliver in this one. He has pitched the Rangers to a 35-11 mark in his last 46 starts, with the Rangers winning those games by an average of 1.33 runs per contest. He is 3-1 over the same period vs. LA, winning by 2.5 runs per contest. Tyler Skaggs has a career mark of 19-23, with opponents scoring 4.67 runs per game. The Rangers have plated 6.75 runs per game against him in his four starts. The door is open for the Rangers, so play on Texas.
Drew Martin
St. Louis at Washington
Play: Washington -135
Promising start to the season for Washington's Gio Gonzalez who threw six scoreless innings and punched out seven batters against the Miami Marlins. No longer blessed with a plus fastball, Gonzalez has rightfully earned the rep of being all-or-nothing. He pitched far better than his 4.57 ERA last season and should continue to benefit from pitching coach Mike Maddux. Today's matchups should yield positive results as St. Louis' offensive is off to a slow start. The Cards have already been shutout twice as well as held to single run. They managed to pound around Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo but outside of that, have produced little to no offense. That includes two games against lefty starters Jon Lester and rookie Amir Garrett in which St. Louis plated only a single run.
Lance Lynn was solid in his return from Tommy John surgery. Lynn, who missed all of 2016, allowed two runs in 5.1 IP against the Cubs. He did however throw 98 pitches and recorded only five swinging strikes. His velocity, which was a concern during spring training, was also down a tick from where it was at pre-surgery. You leave the door open for Lynn to regain his form but for now, he remains a work in progress. Lynn has also shown a strong career home/road dichotomy with an OPS against over over 100 points higher on the highway. We'll look to back Washington at the moderate home price as Gonzalez appears to have a solid edge over Lynn.
St. Louis at Washington
Play: Washington -135
Promising start to the season for Washington's Gio Gonzalez who threw six scoreless innings and punched out seven batters against the Miami Marlins. No longer blessed with a plus fastball, Gonzalez has rightfully earned the rep of being all-or-nothing. He pitched far better than his 4.57 ERA last season and should continue to benefit from pitching coach Mike Maddux. Today's matchups should yield positive results as St. Louis' offensive is off to a slow start. The Cards have already been shutout twice as well as held to single run. They managed to pound around Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo but outside of that, have produced little to no offense. That includes two games against lefty starters Jon Lester and rookie Amir Garrett in which St. Louis plated only a single run.
Lance Lynn was solid in his return from Tommy John surgery. Lynn, who missed all of 2016, allowed two runs in 5.1 IP against the Cubs. He did however throw 98 pitches and recorded only five swinging strikes. His velocity, which was a concern during spring training, was also down a tick from where it was at pre-surgery. You leave the door open for Lynn to regain his form but for now, he remains a work in progress. Lynn has also shown a strong career home/road dichotomy with an OPS against over over 100 points higher on the highway. We'll look to back Washington at the moderate home price as Gonzalez appears to have a solid edge over Lynn.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +107 over BOSTON
Drew Pomeranz (LHP) shot out of the gate in the Padres rotation last year and was then dealt to Boston for a playoff push, but he limped to the finish line (6.61 Sept ERA, forearm issues). Pomeranz relied heavily on his knockout curve, which lends credence to his swing and miss gains but his poor control is still an issue and his subpar first-pitch strike rate hints it's not going away. The first half version of Pomeranz is not coming back either. Pomeranz will now make his first start of the season after being placed on the disabled list with a left flexor strain. Don't expect him to pitch deep into this game. Last season he threw up a dud in his lone start against Baltimore and he really struggled in six starts at Fenway, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Dylan Bundy (RHP) made first pitch strikes and swings and misses the name of his game in his first start of 2017 versus the Blue Jays, where he had a 76% first-pitch strike rate and 17% swing and miss rate. If he can keep those numbers up, a breakout season is well within his reach. We wrote about Bundy that day and suggested that the window to buy low on him is closing fast. That still applies, as his first start this year and second half of last year gives us a glimpse of his upside. Bundy’s eight K’s and no walks in his season debut against Toronto was no fluke. His strikeouts surged behind a swing and miss uptick in his final eight starts last year after getting off to a late start and making just 14 starts all season. Bundy taking back a tag is such a better option here than spotting a price with the struggling out of the gate Red Sox with a weak starter going.
Milwaukee +167 over TORONTO
It’s the Blue Jays home opener and the Rogers Center will be jam packed with 50,000+ but the Blue Jays have struggled out of the gate with just one victory in six games. During the six games on the road to open the season, the Jays suffered two walk-off losses, an eighth-inning blown save, a start by Francisco Liriano that only lasted a third of an inning, a trip to the disabled list for J.P. Howell and only five innings out of 54 in which they managed to score more than a single run. Maybe the Jays get off the mattress here but we’re not in the prediction business. We’re in the value business and Toronto is overpriced here because they’re at home and the market perception is that the Brewers are a bottom feeder while the Jays are contenders. The market also pays a lot of attention to surface stats and in that regard, J.A. Happ looks real good.
Happ was an absolute force at home last season, where in 15 starts he went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 90 innings. He started this season strong with a nine strikeout performance in Baltimore too so what's there not to like about him? Well, for starters, his collection of base skills is more average than good. Once his fortunate hit rate goes up (was 27% last year) and his strand rate comes down (77% last year) his shiny surface stats will not look as pretty. Happ is not a bad pitcher but he’s nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was a year ago plus one start this year. There's some significant regression coming here, therefore Happ must be faded at these inflated prices.
Milwaukee is 2-5 to open the year. However, they opened with four games against the Rockies followed by three against the Cubbies. They lost by one run in two of the three losses to Colorado and lost by two runs in the other. They also defeated Chicago one out of three games and scored five runs or more in four of their seven games so far. In the last 30 games of last season, this audacious gang of power/speed, aggressive, positionally flexible nobodies (plus star Ryan Braun and top prospect Orlando Arcia) forged a 17-13 record on 132 runs scored. In those 30 games, the club’s new faces stole 34 bases (on 47 attempts), and also drew 90 walks and slugged 46 home runs. This is an undervalued team that not many know a lot about and then there’s Wily Peralta. Peralta surged down the stretch of last season, where in his last 10 starts he went 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His skills during that time supported the results (3.66 xERA, 51% GB% with a strong K/BB ratio). Peralta took on the Rockies in his first start of the season and threw five shutout innings. Significant overlay here.
San Diego -1½ +265 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 11 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park and so when Colorado is at home, this will be an automatic play every time.
Incidentally, we received a good question regarding this strategy and thought we would share the question and answer here.
Q: Brian: Have you back-tested this Colorado alternate runtime angle over a large sample?
A: Good question Manny and you'll have to be the judge yourself. I bet it all of last season as a tester and profited nearly 48 units on the year. Is that a small or large sample size? I would have to say small but large enough to put it out there this year and allow readers to make their own decision. Keep in mind that one win out of every three games shows a profit.
Baltimore +107 over BOSTON
Drew Pomeranz (LHP) shot out of the gate in the Padres rotation last year and was then dealt to Boston for a playoff push, but he limped to the finish line (6.61 Sept ERA, forearm issues). Pomeranz relied heavily on his knockout curve, which lends credence to his swing and miss gains but his poor control is still an issue and his subpar first-pitch strike rate hints it's not going away. The first half version of Pomeranz is not coming back either. Pomeranz will now make his first start of the season after being placed on the disabled list with a left flexor strain. Don't expect him to pitch deep into this game. Last season he threw up a dud in his lone start against Baltimore and he really struggled in six starts at Fenway, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Dylan Bundy (RHP) made first pitch strikes and swings and misses the name of his game in his first start of 2017 versus the Blue Jays, where he had a 76% first-pitch strike rate and 17% swing and miss rate. If he can keep those numbers up, a breakout season is well within his reach. We wrote about Bundy that day and suggested that the window to buy low on him is closing fast. That still applies, as his first start this year and second half of last year gives us a glimpse of his upside. Bundy’s eight K’s and no walks in his season debut against Toronto was no fluke. His strikeouts surged behind a swing and miss uptick in his final eight starts last year after getting off to a late start and making just 14 starts all season. Bundy taking back a tag is such a better option here than spotting a price with the struggling out of the gate Red Sox with a weak starter going.
Milwaukee +167 over TORONTO
It’s the Blue Jays home opener and the Rogers Center will be jam packed with 50,000+ but the Blue Jays have struggled out of the gate with just one victory in six games. During the six games on the road to open the season, the Jays suffered two walk-off losses, an eighth-inning blown save, a start by Francisco Liriano that only lasted a third of an inning, a trip to the disabled list for J.P. Howell and only five innings out of 54 in which they managed to score more than a single run. Maybe the Jays get off the mattress here but we’re not in the prediction business. We’re in the value business and Toronto is overpriced here because they’re at home and the market perception is that the Brewers are a bottom feeder while the Jays are contenders. The market also pays a lot of attention to surface stats and in that regard, J.A. Happ looks real good.
Happ was an absolute force at home last season, where in 15 starts he went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 90 innings. He started this season strong with a nine strikeout performance in Baltimore too so what's there not to like about him? Well, for starters, his collection of base skills is more average than good. Once his fortunate hit rate goes up (was 27% last year) and his strand rate comes down (77% last year) his shiny surface stats will not look as pretty. Happ is not a bad pitcher but he’s nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was a year ago plus one start this year. There's some significant regression coming here, therefore Happ must be faded at these inflated prices.
Milwaukee is 2-5 to open the year. However, they opened with four games against the Rockies followed by three against the Cubbies. They lost by one run in two of the three losses to Colorado and lost by two runs in the other. They also defeated Chicago one out of three games and scored five runs or more in four of their seven games so far. In the last 30 games of last season, this audacious gang of power/speed, aggressive, positionally flexible nobodies (plus star Ryan Braun and top prospect Orlando Arcia) forged a 17-13 record on 132 runs scored. In those 30 games, the club’s new faces stole 34 bases (on 47 attempts), and also drew 90 walks and slugged 46 home runs. This is an undervalued team that not many know a lot about and then there’s Wily Peralta. Peralta surged down the stretch of last season, where in his last 10 starts he went 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His skills during that time supported the results (3.66 xERA, 51% GB% with a strong K/BB ratio). Peralta took on the Rockies in his first start of the season and threw five shutout innings. Significant overlay here.
San Diego -1½ +265 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 11 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park and so when Colorado is at home, this will be an automatic play every time.
Incidentally, we received a good question regarding this strategy and thought we would share the question and answer here.
Q: Brian: Have you back-tested this Colorado alternate runtime angle over a large sample?
A: Good question Manny and you'll have to be the judge yourself. I bet it all of last season as a tester and profited nearly 48 units on the year. Is that a small or large sample size? I would have to say small but large enough to put it out there this year and allow readers to make their own decision. Keep in mind that one win out of every three games shows a profit.
