SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO -101 over Philadelphia
OT included. Philadelphia is favored here because why? We have faded the Sabres a few times over the past week or two and that’s because they were getting a little too much credit after winning four of five games just prior to their bye week. However, after their bye, the Sabres have lost five of six with only victory over that span occurring against the Coyotes. Now that the market has done a 180 on them, we’re buyers again because too much emphasis is put on results and not performance and in that regard, the Sabres are playing better now than they were when they were winning.
Buffalo had a 3-0 lead on Pittsburgh last game but ended up losing 4-3. They had a 1-0 lead on TB the game prior before losing in in s shootout. Against Pittsburgh, the Sabres fired away 49 shots on net and subsequently played nose to nose with the Bolts. When Buffalo defeated Arizona 6-3, they dominated that game from start to finish. When they lost to Nashville last week, 5-4, also in OT, the Sabres had a 4-2 lead in the third. Over their last four games against Nashville, Arizona, Tampa and Pittsburgh, the Sabres are 1-3 but could easily be 4-0 and probably should be 4-0 because they had a one-goal lead, a two-goal lead and a three-goal lead. Buffalo was not outplayed in any of those games and now take a step down in class when facing the Flyers.
Philadelphia has scored fewer goals than Buffalo and has allowed more. The Flyers have some wins lately because Steve Mason has caught fire but we’ve all seen this movie before. As soon as some accolades are thrown his way, Mason craps the bed by getting yanked in 30% of his next 10 starts. Mason is getting some press this week after posting a 0.96 GAA and a .969 save percentage in his last three starts. We all know what’s coming next. If Mason has another great game, good for him but it’s something we cannot worry about. Philadelphia has been inconsistent all season long. The Flyers have a mere 13 wins in 35 games against top-16 competition and they are 11-20 on the road. The Sabres have better goaltending, a much better record against top-10 and top-16 teams and they’re wrongly being billed as the dog here.
Detroit +165 over TORONTO
Barring a miracle run, the Red Wings are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. Detroit sits dead last in the East but the pressure is off, as they finish up the season. For the first time in a long time, the Red Wings have the chance to play the enjoyable role of the spoiler. It's been a trying season for Detroit off the ice with the deaths of Gordie Howe and Mike Ilitch, but the Wings have come through those trying times to play some decent hockey. Detroit has wins over the Capitals and Penguins in back-to-back games recently and while they've gone just 1-2 on this recent road trip, they took the hottest team in the league to overtime in Calgary last Friday night and then lost a hard fought 4-3 decision to the Oilers the next night. After a couple of days off to regroup, the Wings now have a chance to make life miserable for former head coach Mike Babcock and his young Maple Leafs. A strong effort is likely.
Toronto is feeling the pressure of expectations in a hockey hotbed. Not expected to do much of anything with such a young and inexperienced team, Toronto snuck up on a lot of clubs this year but with less than five weeks left in the season, the Maple Leafs are not sneaking up on anyone anymore. Toronto’s chances to make the playoffs took a big hit after five straight losses, which included a brutal 0-3 trip to California. Despite their recent struggles, the Leafs are not priced like a team in the middle of a slide, instead, Toronto is laying it's third biggest price of the season and that cannot be. When the Leafs left for California, they were in a Wild Card spot with their sights set on finishing in the top-3 of the Atlantic Division. Now, the Leafs are 9th in the East with both Florida and Tampa nipping at their heels. The Buds were not in good form out West either, giving up 37, 35 and 36 shots against the Sharks, Kings and Ducks respectively. That leads us to goaltender Fredrik Anderson, who is capable of stealing the show, but consistency has been his issue. Anderson can stop 33 of 35 shots as he did in L.A., or he can just as easily allow five goals in on 20 shots, as he did against the Jets a few weeks ago. Every game the Leafs play from now until their playoff fate is decided will be over-analyzed by pundits from coast to coast but the bottom line is that the Leafs defense is melting down because they are simply not good enough to hold up under the pressure that comes from being in a playoff fight this time of year. Yeah, Toronto can win but they are a 50/50 proposition right now, which makes them a great fade at these prices.
FLORIDA -½ +136 over N.Y. Rangers
Regulation only. The Rangers decision to go with goaltender Antti Raanta cost us a bet yesterday, as Raanta and the Rags went on to defeat the Lightning 1-0 in OT. Raanta was spectacular but it doesn’t change the fact that the Rangers once again pulled a rabbit out of their hat. The Rangers were under siege the entire night. Tampa had 27 scoring chances to the Rangers 11. The Bolts held a significant edge in time of possession and in every other category too. The Rangers came out hitting and trying to be physical after getting outplayed badly in four straight games. It didn’t work and now they’ve been outplayed badly in five straight games but have two lucky victories to show for it. Going back-to-back after chasing the Bolts around all night is not a great situation for the Rangers and we’ll continue to insist that this is the NHL’s most overrated, overvalued and luckiest team by a wide margin.
Speaking of luck, the Panthers have had very little lately. Here’s a team that scored one goal on 42 shots against Dallas in their last game and scored one goal on 40 shots the game prior. Florida has fired away 42, 40, 38, 38 in four of its last five games and has five lousy goals to show for it. There is no explantation for luck, be it good or bad in this sport. One team can fire away 65 shots towards the net and four will deflect and go in while the other team will fire away 65 shots towards the net and only one will go in. That’s hockey.
The Dallas Stars looked like they were killing a 60-minute penalty last night in Washington and won 4-2. Dallas’ shooting percentage was 18.2% while Washington’s was 4.5%. We’re merely drawing the fine line between winning and losing in this league and in that regard, the Rangers are winning games at an incredibly high clip considering they get outplayed so badly so often. The Panthers are definitely on the verge of an offensive breakout, as they have been creating a slew of high quality chances lately. The Rangers will very likely get outplayed again here, that is almost a guarantee and if they beat us again, so be it.
