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NBA Western Conference betting road map: Jazz could provide value
By STEVE MERRIL

The NBA's regular season is reaching its late stages and the playoffs are on the horizon. Steve Merril takes a look at four Western Conference teams to keep an eye on this week.

Here are four teams to keep an eye on, along with angles to consider in the coming week.

Spread Watch

Utah has seven rookies on their roster, and young and inexperienced teams often succumb to the rigors of an 82-game NBA schedule in the second half of the season. But the Jazz have yet to fall into that category. Utah is playing good basketball right now, especially on the defensive end of the court. “It’s better to have a great defense and struggle offensively than the other way around,” Jazz point guard Trey Burke said. Utah has been a scrappy team; they’ve only lost one of their last sixteen games by 10 points or more. This week, the Jazz will play four road games, and they will be underdogs in three of those games with the exception being Friday night in Philadelphia.

Total Watch

A couple of weeks back, we focused on the Dallas Mavericks without Rajon Rondo. Dallas plays a much different style of basketball with Rondo on and off the court. Since returning from injury, Rondo has played in six games, and the Mavericks have gone a perfect 6-0 to the Under. The totals are still being priced based on Dallas’ early season numbers; five of their last six games have been lined at 201 or higher. That will continue this week, especially with Dallas playing road games in Portland, Golden State, and Los Angeles against the Lakers.

Injury impact

Portland’s LeMarcus Aldridge is playing hurt. The Trail Blazers’ starting forward has two bad thumbs that are impacting his effectiveness. Aldridge was slated to have surgery, but he put that off in order to play the rest of this season. Portland has won their last three games, and because of that, Aldridge’s issues have gone unnoticed. In those three games, Aldridge has shot just 35.8% (24-67) from the field. Aldridge is a much better shooter than those numbers, and in fact, his career average is 48.4% from the field. He’s having his worst season as a pro, hitting just 45.4% from the field overall.

Playbook

San Antonio has been in a funk. The Spurs recently completed their annual ‘Rodeo Road Trip’ and it resulted in a 4-5 SU record, their worst in team history. San Antonio is just 2-4 since the All-Star break, but their last two wins did come in their last two games. The Spurs should continue their winning ways this week with all three games at home versus the Kings, Nuggets, and Bulls. San Antonio’s offense will likely kick into high gear as well against those opponents, so be on the lookout for the Spurs to win some high-scoring games.

 

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'On the hardwood'

Dragging a 1-6 SU/ATS stretch into Chicago the Wizards hope to get back in handicappers good graces when they hit United Center hardwood on Tuesday night. In the last fifteen Washington, Chicago meetings the Wizards have cashed eleven tickets including seven straight in Chicago. Easier said than done. Washington has a slew of negative betting trends to overcome. The Wizards have cashed just one ticket the past ten on the road and have shown a tendency to falter against the betting line with two days rest going 1-11-1 ATS the last thirteen situations. If that were not enough to consider Wizards fade material, they're on a 2-8-1 ATS skid after a game as a favorite, 3-13 ATS slide following a ATS loss and for whatever reason have stumbled against the number after running the hardwood against Pistons going 1-9 ATS.

 

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NCAAB Big 12 Analysis
By Jim Feist

Tournament play is on the horizon! It's the start of a wild few weeks with conference tournament play helping to whittle the field. In the Big 12, Kansas has been the dominant team again, but there is a logjam of teams vying for the spots below the Jayhawks. Here's a look at some of the top teams of the Big 12.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have been a powerhouse team, tops in scoring (81 ppg) in the conference and a +8.5 scoring margin, though they have not been invincible with losses at Oklahoma State (67-62) and at West Virginia (62-61). Sophomore guard Frank Mason III (12 ppg) has led the way on a team with great balance, second in the conference in field goal shooting, tops in field goal defense.

He’s not alone, of course, with 6-8 senior Perry Ellis (13 ppg, 7 rpg), 6-5 sophomore Wayne Selden (10 ppg) and 6-8 freshman Cliff Alexander blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Kansas might not be as good as last year’s squad with Andrew Wiggins, but they beat Utah (63-60) and Michigan State (61-56) in tough non-conference games, while getting blasted by Kentucky, 72-40 (who hasn’t?).

Iowa State: The Cyclones are not big up front and not especially strong on defense. Yet, what a talented, deep team for Fred Hoiberg, deadly on offense, running opponents into the ground with a top 10 offense again. This is an experienced group led by 6-8 junior Georges Niang (14.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg), 6-4 junior Naz Long, 6-6 senior Bryce Dejean-Jones (12.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-6 senior Dustin Hogue. This group is Top 5 in assists in the nation for the second straight year. Iowa State is on a 54-26-1 run over the total!

They are tops in the Big 12 in field goal shooting. One concern is road play, where they’ve struggled, especially on defense. They allowed 94 in a loss at Oklahoma and 89 at Kansas. Iowa State even allowed Texas Tech to hit 11 three-pointers in a 78-73 upset. Something to keep in mind come Big 12 tourney time: Iowa State is 47-32-1 ATS against the Big 12.

Oklahoma: Coach Lon Kruger has a run-and-gun Sooners squad that is tough, led by 6-4 junior Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 5 rpg) and 6-4 junior Buddy Hield (17 ppg). They can be relied on at the free throw line in close games, 74% at the charity strip (No. 1 in the Big 12). They are terrific on offense and the defense has improved, second in the Big 12 in field goal shooting allowing 38%, plus fourth at defending the three-pointer allowing .365% shooting.

A pair of 6-8 frontcourt forces in junior Ryan Spangler (11 ppg, 8 rpg) and TaShawn Thomas (11 ppg, 6 rpg) give the Sooners good balance all around. The frontcourt is not big, however, and they’ve lost to strong rebounding teams Baylor (69-58), Wisconsin (69-56), and Kansas (85-78). They also had 22 turnovers in an 86-65 loss at West Virginia.

Texas: The Longhorns are a young team for Rick Barnes with a monster frontcourt that few teams look forward to playing. Sophomore guard Isaiah Taylor (12.8 ppg) leads in scoring, but the rebounding muscle is fierce with 6-11 freshman Myles Turner (11.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg), 6-8 senior Jonathon Holmes (11 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and 6-9, 285-lb junior Cameron Ridley (8.6 ppg, 5 rpg). Texas is tops in the Big 12 in blocks and second in rebounding margin.

Even during their four-game mid-season skid they lost by 3 at No. 15 Iowa State and in overtime by a basket to Oklahoma State. They have wins over UConn and Iowa and lost in OT to Stanford. And in a loss at Kentucky (26-26 at the half) the Longhorns ended up with a 42-31 rebound edge, including 16-12 on the offensive glass. How many teams can say that after facing the mighty Wildcats?

Baylor: Few teams can pound the glass like Baylor, Top 5 most of the year in rebounds led by 6-7 junior Taurean Prince (13 ppg), 6-8, 280-lb junior Rico Gathers (11 ppg, 12 rpg) and 6-6 senior Royce O'Neale (6 rpg). Baylor lost both meetings with Kansas, but dropped a 56-55 thriller in one of them. The Bears were 8 of 15 on 3-pointers, but 10 of 38 inside the arc. They’d love a third shot at the Jayhawks in tourney play.

 

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March Madness is NOW! Betting this week's NCAAB conference tournaments
By JASON LOGAN

For those that think March Madness doesn’t begin until the selection committee has their say on that tense Sunday in mid-March, we say “WRONG”.

The official and oft-forgotten kickoff to the NCAA postseason begins this week when 13 mid-major conferences open their respective conference tournaments. Starting Tuesday, these leagues will fill out the first outright selections of the national tournament and, along the way, likely burst the bubble of a few major conference programs on the NCAA fringe.

Chances are you haven’t paid attention to these little leagues during the course of the season, since many of their games go without odds. Hell, you may not know some of them even existed. So we’re giving you a head start when it comes to capping these conference tournaments, pointing out the favorites, value underdog bets and live long shots to win.

America East (March 4, 8, 14)

Favorite: Albany Great Danes (21-8, 15-1) – With the America East a campus-sites tournament – no host school – Albany has home court to the finals. The Great Danes give up just 59 points per game at home – ninth lowest in the country.

Underdog: Stony Brook Seawolves (21-10, 12-4) – The lone conference blemish on Albany’s resume comes courtesy of the Seawolves, who ride a six-game winning streak into the postseason. Momentum is worth its weight in gold come March.

Long Shot: New Hampshire Wildcats (18-11, 11-5) – The Wildcats lost twice to Albany by a combined three points and have a win over Stony Brook. New Hampshire can knock down the 3-pointer and defend against it – two very key stats for playoff basketball.

Atlantic Sun (March 3-8)

Favorite: North Florida Ospreys -130 (20-11, 12-2) – North Florida gets home-court throughout this tournament, and can pile on the points in a hurry – averaging 83 points per home game (fifth in the country). It won both meetings with Florida Gulf Coast, who many pick to win this tournament.

Underdog: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +270 (21-9, 11-3) – The Eagles stumbled at the end of the year with two straight losses. Florida Gulf Coast is known more for its defense (39.1 FG% def) then the high-flying offense it wowed the nation with two years ago.

Long shot: South Carolina Upstate Spartans +370 (21-10, 8-6) – North Florida’s two conference losses came to the Spartans, who also played FGCU tough. South Carolina Upstate has a plus-5.4 scoring margin and the conference’s top scorer Ty Greene, who dropped 39 on North Florida and 31 on FGCU.

Big South (March 3-8)

Favorite: Charleston Southern Buccaneers (19-10, 13-5) – The Buccaneers locked up the No. 1 seed with a thrilling triple-overtime win against High Point Saturday. Charleston Southern can fill it up at home (averaging 80 points) and lives by the 3-pointer, and dies by the 3-pointer (27.4 3-pt attempts – second most).

Underdog: Radford Highlanders (21-10, 12-6) – Radford grabbed the No. 4 seed with a win in its season finale. The Highlanders have two wins over High Point and a road win at Charleston and boast a deep rotation with seven players averaging 5.9 points or more.

Long shot: Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (18-13, 10-8) – The Bulldogs managed to win 18 games despite being ranked among the worst defensive programs in the country (74.2 points against). Gardner-Webb has been able to overwhelm the top teams in the conference with its explosive offense (75.1 points per game).

Colonial Athletic Association (March 6-9)

Favorite: James Madison Dukes +1,000 (19-12, 12-6) – Even though the Dukes are ranked No. 4 in the conference tournament, they take six wins in their last seven games (5-2 ATS) into the postseason. That momentum separates them from a deadlocked pack at the top of the conference. William & Mary are +200 faves to win the Colonial at the Superbook in Las Vegas but dropped three of its last five games of the season. The CAA is much more wide open than the odds would indicate.

Underdog: NC Wilmington Seahawks +600 (17-12, 12-6) – The Seahawks crapped the bed in the season finale, losing to Elon but has knocked off Northeastern and James Madison in recent weeks and sits No. 2 in the tournament seeding, and will play a banged-up Drexel team (missing CAA leading scorer Damion Lee) or a 8-23 College of Charleston squad.

Long shot: Elon Phoenix +1,200 (14-17, 6-12) – Elon came on late in the season with three straight wins to finish up, beating Northeastern and UNCW in that span. The Phoenix also beat No. 1-seed William & Mary earlier this year, who they will likely face in Round 2 of the CAA tournament.

Horizon League (March 3-10)

Favorite: Valparaiso Crusaders EVEN (26-5, 13-3) – Since Valpo won the league, it gets to host the tournament - a sweet deal for a team that went 13-1 at home. The Crusaders don’t budge much on defense and don’t give away second looks at the basket either, allowing just 7.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Underdog: Green Bay Phoenix +150 (23-7, 12-4) – Seeded No. 2, Green Bay avoided a potential meeting with Cleveland State in the semifinals (lost both games to the Vikings). The Phoenix won the regular season title last year but were upset in the opener. They’ll be cautious of a letdown this time around.

Long shot: Detroit Titans +350 (14-17, 7-9) – Detroit is sitting No. 5 in the tournament and no one ahead of them wants them to advance. The Titans have victories over Valparaiso, Cleveland State, and Oakland and was competitive in February with a 5-2 ATS record. Detroit is a dangerous 3-point threat at 39.1 percent in league games.

Metro Atlantic Athletic (March 5-9)

Favorite: Iona Gaels +120 (24-7, 17-3) – The Gaels can light up the scoreboard with an offense that posts 79.6 points per game – seventh in the country. Iona did, however, lay an egg in the season finale to St. Peter’s, marking the fourth straight game the Gaels have failed to cover.

Underdog: Rider Broncs +500 (21-10, 15-5) – Rider was one of the best bets during the regular season, going 17-9 ATS in its 16 lined games. The Broncs had a strong true road record at 11-4 and played some heavyweights in Kansas and Michigan State early in the year.

Long shot: Niagara Purple Eagles +300 (8-21, 7-13) – The Purple Eagles picked up half their wins in the final four games of the season, including a win over Rider, holding opponents to about 40 percent shooting. Niagara also played Iona to a one-point game, losing 80-79 at home. Momentum breeds upsets.

Missouri Valley Conference (March 5-8)

Favorite: Wichita State Shockers -300 (27-3, 17-1) – Wichita State is going dancing regardless of their tournament turnout. Wichita State proved it was top dog in the MVC with a convincing win over Northern Iowa and has covered in five straight heading into the postseason.

Underdog: Northern Iowa Panthers +250 (27-3, 16-2) – While UNI’s record is very close to WSU, Saturday’s 14-point defeat to the Shockers showed how much space is really between these programs. The Panthers give up just 54.6 points per game – fourth lowest in the country – and seemingly have an easier side of the bracket.

Long shot: Illinois State Redbirds +800 (15-15, 11-7) – With ranked rivals above them in the standings, Illinois State is giving great value in the MVC tournament. The Redbirds bring a four-game winning streak into the postseason and covered in both losses to Wichita State.

Northeast Conference (March 5,8,11)

Favorite: St. Francis (NY) Terriers (21-10, 15-3) – The Terriers limp into the postseason off a loss and a slim overtime victory in their final two games of the schedule. St. Francis has home court throughout the tournament, losing just one conference game in front of its fans.

Underdog: Robert Morris Colonials (16-14, 12-6) – Robert Morris takes a three-game roll into the tournament and was the lone Northeast team to come out of Peter Aquilone Court in Brooklyn with a victory. Rodney Pryor is playing the best basketball in the conference averaging 25.5 points in the last four games.

Long shot: Sacred Heart Pioneers (15-16, 9-9) – Sacred Heart closed the campaign with back-to-back wins and went 6-2 in its last eight games of the schedule. The Pioneers love to push the tempo, averaging 73.4 points on 72.3 possessions per game – running the 20th fastest tempo in college hoops.

Ohio Valley Conference (March 4-7)

Favorite: Murray State Racers -125 (26-4, 16-0) – The Racers were perfect in conference play but all that could be for nothing if Murray State can’t get the job done in the postseason. The Racers can put up the points - 78.8 per game – but do have flaws on defense and at the charity stripe.

Underdog: Belmont Bruins +260 (19-10, 11-5) – The Bruins earned the No. 3 seed in the tournament thanks to a late-season push that won four straight, including a victory over Eastern Kentucky. Belmont can also fill the stats sheet but hasn’t been its best away from home.

Long shot: Morehead State Eagles +260 (15-16, 10-6) – Morehead State also brings momentum into the postseason with three wins in a row. Those victories did come against the bottom half of the OVC East, but the Eagles have a swarming defense that turns mistakes into easy offense – forcing a league-high 14.9 turnovers per game.

Patriot League (March 3,5,8,11)

Favorite: Colgate Raiders +270 (15-16, 12-6) – Colgate finished as the No. 2 seed but has five wins in its last seven games, and those two losses have come by a combined three points. The Raiders also won both meetings with No. 1 Bucknell (+165) this season. This team can bring the rain from downtown, averaging 7.8 3-pointers per game on 40.2 percent shooting – ninth best in the country.

Underdog: Lehigh Mountain Hawks +425 (16-13, 10-8) – Lehigh takes on American U in Round 2, a team it beat in its last meeting, then would likely face Colgate in the semifinal. The Mountain Hawks have given the Raiders a tough go in their two clashes, and have a convincing win over No. 1 Bucknell. It could happen for the No. 3 seed.

Long shot: Lafayette Leopards +500 (17-12, 9-9) – The Leopards are dead eyes from downtown, shooting 40.3 percent from distance and knocking down almost eight 3-pointers per game. Lafayette ranks 26th in scoring at 75 points per game and took down Bucknell, Colgate and Lehigh this season.

Southern Conference (March 6-9)

Favorite: Wofford Terriers -125 (25-6, 16-2) – Wofford runs a very methodical offense, sucking almost every second off the shot clock. That’s helped the Terriers limit opponents to just 59.9 points per game. They bring a five-game winning streak into the postseason, going 4-1 ATS in that span.

Underdog: Chattanooga Mocs +300 (22-9, 15-3) – The Mocs run at a much quicker tempo than their Southern rivals, scoring 72.8 points per game. They won their last meeting at home versus Wofford and boast four players averaging double figures.

Long shot: Samford Bulldogs +1,500 (13-18, 6-12) – Samford has a tough slate of schedule to finish the season, playing five of its final seven games on the road. The Bulldogs went 3-4 in that span with a 5-2 ATS mark. Samford has a freshman star in Christen Cunningham, who is playing his best ball of the season.

Summit League (March 7-10)

Favorite: South Dakota State -110 /North Dakota State +500 (21-9, 12-4/20-9, 12-4) – Nearly identical records from these rivals. Since they’re seeding No. 1 and No. 2, there’s a very good chance we see them in the final. Both closed the regular season with a loss. They split the season series but No. 1 SDSU has the softer side of the bracket this March.

Underdog: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles +500 (17-13, 10-6) – Oral Roberts took a win over NDSU last week and closed with a victory over Denver. The Golden Eagles are without standout guard Korey Billbury, who was suspended at the end of the year. And while they’ve done OK without him in those two games, they will miss him in the backcourt when the postseason pressure builds.

Long shot: IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons +500 (16-13, 9-7) – The Mastodons have resume wins over North and South Dakota State and come into the postseason on an 8-2 run, going 9-1 ATs in that stretch. IPFW can win with offense or lock teams down on defense.

West Coast Conference (March 5-10)

Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs -300 (29-2, 17-1) – The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to BYU in the season finale, which probably cost them a shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga gets it done on both ends of the floor and that loss to the Cougars is likely a wake-up call for Mark Few’s squad.

Underdog: BYU Cougars +300 (23-8, 13-5) – The Cougars may have just punched their ticket to the Big Dance with that win over Gonzaga, and run the risk of a letdown in their opener. Brigham Young is the top scoring team in the country but doesn’t play much in the way of defense.

Long shot: Pepperdine Waves +1,000 (17-12, 10-8) – Behind the Zags, St, Mary’s and BYU, Pepperdine is playing in the shadows of those WCC heavyweights. The Waves won both games with the Cougars, knocked off the Gaels and gave the Bulldogs fits. They’ve held their last four opponents to an average of just 54 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

North Carolina is 3-5 in last eight games, lost three of last five on road; Tar Heels are 3-2 as road favorites; they've won last four games against Georgia Tech, all by 12+ points. Tech was down 20-2 at Clemson Saturday, rallied to force OT but lost by 7; they've lost last three games, by 29-1-7 points and five of last six; they're 3-0 as home underdogs, with all six home losses by by 4 or less points. ACC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 11-6 vs spread.

Rhode Island won nine of last eleven games, with both losses by a point (St Joe's/Davidson); Rams are 6-2 on A-14 road, losing by 4 at UMass, 1 on Hawk Hill- they won four of last five on road. Dayton won five of last six games; they're 5-3 as home favorites, with three of last four home wins by 13+ points. A-14 home favorites of 4 or less points are 8-9 vs spread. URI won three of last four games with Dayton, losing here LY.

Georgetown (-4) beat Butler 61-59 at home Jan 17, after losing 64-58 to Butler in Bahamas tournament Thanksgiving weekend. Butler had 29-17 lead in rematch, led just 31-27 at half. Bulldogs won eight of their last 10 games, covered three of last four as home favorite- their last four wins at home were by 10+. Hoyas won three of last four games, are 2-3 as road underdogs; they're 4-4 on big East road, losing by 17-3-16-11. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-11 vs spread.

Iowa won its last four games but against dregs of Big 14; they've been a favorite in last seven games. Hawkeyes are 3-2 as road underdogs, 5-3 SU on Big 14 road, with losses by 32-4-5 points. Wisconsin is only team to spank them on road. Indiana is 1-4 as favorite at home, losing to Purdue after winning first six at home; they're 2-3 in their last five games overall. Underdogs covered six of their seven home games. Big 14 home teams are 23-13 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less.

Central Michigan (+8.5) outscored Toledo 10-2 over final 4:38, won at Rockets 65-62 in MAC opener Jan 6, using +9 turnover ratio (13-4) to offset being outscored 15-6 on foul line. Chippewas won six of last seven games, are 4-3-1 as home favorites- four of their last five home tilts were decided by 5 or less points. MAC home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-10-1 vs spread. Toledo is 9-2 in its last 11 games, winning last five in a row- they were underdog in two of those five games.

Home side won last seven Ole Miss-Alabama games; Rebels lost three in row at Coleman Coliseum. Ole Miss lost last two games, allowing 74.5 ppg after winning eight of previous nine; its loss at LSU Saturday ended 4-game win streak on road- they're 3-2 as road underdogs. Alabama is 4-6 in last ten games, 2-3 in last five home games; Tide is 3-3 as favorite at home, SEC home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-14-1 against spread.

Michigan lost six of last seven games, including last four on road, with three of four by 3 or less points or in OT; Wolverines (-9) won 56-54 vs Northwestern 56-54 Jan 17 at home, using +9 turnover ratio (12-3) in a game they trailed by 5 in second half. Wildcats won four of last five but lost last game by 26 at Illinois. Northwestern won last three home games after starting conference play 1-10. Big 14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 19-14 vs spread.

West Virginia (+1.5) scored in last 0:05 to upset Kansas 62-61 Feb 16 in Morgantown; Jayhawks missed driving layup at buzzer for win- they're 0-4 vs spread in last four games (2-2 SU), 5-3 as home favorites, with six of eight home wins by 9+ points. Mountaineers lost three of last four on road with all three losses by 12+ points; they're 2-3 as road underdogs. WVU guards Staten/Browne are banged up, missed Baylor game. Big X single digit home favorites are 28-21 vs spread.

Clemson (+8.5) won 68-57 at NC State Jan 28; Wolfpack shot 24.5% on 2-point shots in game Tigers led by 20 at half. Clemson lost four of last six games, beating Ga Tech in OT Saturday after blowing early 20-2 lead; they won last five home games, covered last four. State had won three in row before getting whacked at Boston College Saturday; Pack is 4-4 on ACC road, winning at UNC/Louisville, losing at Wake/BC. ACC home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-8 vs spread.

Donovan got win #500 last game; his Gators lost six of last eight games, are 3-4 as home favorites, splitting last six home games SU. Texas A&M (-3) nipped Florida 63-62 at home Feb 14, in brickfest that saw teams go 8-38 behind arc. Aggies won four of last five games, are 4-2 as road dogs, covering six of last seven overall on foreign soil. Florida PG Hill is 13 of his last 55 from floor, 3 of last 17 on foul line. SEC road teams are 24-14-1 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.

Creighton (+15) lost 71-50 ar Villanova on Feb 4, trailing 29-14 at half in game where Wildcats made 12-26 on arc. Bluejays split last eight games, going 2-2 in last four home games, losing by 27-2 to Georgetown/Butler. Villanova has regular season title clinched but is playing for a #1 seed in NCAAs; they covered seven of eight as a home favorite. Big East double digit favorites are 10-8 vs spread. Bluejays clocked Villanova twice LY by 28-21 points. Wildcats have chance to return favor here.

Horizon tournament
Detroit beat Youngstown State twice this year, 93-87 (-9) in OT at home Jan 29, then 83-70 (even) in Youngstown Feb 21; Titans shot 68% in the game ten days ago- they're 0-2 in this event last two years, after winning it in '12. Detroit won last two games, but failed to cover its last five tries as a favorite. Youngstown lost its last three games by 13-11-8 points; Penguins won their first tourney game two of last three years, lost by 4 in OT LY.

Ill-Chicago beat Wright State twice this season. 79-75 (+8) on road Feb 12, then 61-46 (-1) at home three days ago. UIC had 53-20 edge in free throws in two games. Flames lost four of last five games, lost six of last seven at home. Raiders lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); they're 2-4 as road underdogs- their last win was Jan 26 at Detroit. Flames have only one win in this event last six years; Wright lost in finals last two years, but at 3-13 this year, doubtful they'll get there this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL: Streaks, Trends, Notes -

Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers March 03, 09:30 EST

When the Los Angeles Kings visit Rexall Place to face the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday the teams should continue an impressive 'Under' streak for total players. In the last fourteen meetings these teams have produced a sparkling 10-2-2 'Under' mark including 6-1-1 'Under' playing in Edmonton. Kings scoring 2 or less in each of their last five games, Oilers putting 2 or less between the pipes in each of their last four, 6-1 'Under' last seven on home ice no need bucking the 'Under' trend in this series.


Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers March 03, 07:00 EST

Toronto blanked 4-0 for the second time in as many nights have extended the road drought to 16 straight games. That may not improve with with a trip to Florida to take on the Panthers. The Panthers are on a solid 13-3 stretch vs a team with a winning % below .400. Leafs are 0-4 in the last four meetings, 2-8 in the last 10 encounters in Florida, 1-12 last thirteen skating against a team with a winning record, 0-5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Tuesday
by Alan Matthews

It’s time for your updated Sportsbook odds on whether Kentucky will run the table through the NCAA Tournament. An impressive win Saturday over ranked Arkansas has “yes” that UK will finish with a zero in the loss column at +150. “No” is -185. Tuesday is a big night because it’s Kentucky’s final true road game of the season as the Cats visit a good Georgia team. I’d argue this will be UK’s toughest game until probably the Sweet 16. Here’s a look at that matchup and two others that caught my eye.

No. 1 Kentucky at Georgia (+9.5)

This SEC matchup is at 9 p.m. on ESPN. Georgia is currently listed as a No. 8 seed in the East on ESPN Bracketology, facing off against No. 9 Oklahoma State in the Big Dance. Kentucky remains the No. 1 in the Midwest and will stay there even with a loss.

Kentucky (29-0, 16-0) beat the visiting No. 18 Razorbacks 84-67 on Saturday to officially clinch the SEC regular-season title and end a three-game losing streak in the series. Trey Lyles led UK with 18 points. Kentucky held Arkansas to 37.5 percent shooting and has now held its opponents to a 34.4 shooting percentage on the season. That’s on pace to be the lowest opponent field-goal percentage in a single season since the adoption of the 3-point line in 1986-87. Kentucky also improved to 5-0 against ranked teams, beating them by an average of 16.6 points per game. UK is the fifth team since 1979, the year NCAA Tournament seeding began, to start 29-0. Interestingly, none of the previous four won the title. The most recent was Wichita State last year, which lost to Kentucky in the Round of 32. Georgia (19-9, 10-6) blasted Missouri 68-44 on Saturday for its third straight win. The win was by the largest margin of victory in an SEC contest under Coach Mark Fox. Nemanja Djurisic led the Bulldogs with 14 points. Georgia sophomore guard Juwan Parker played for the first time since missing 11 straight games with an Achilles injury.

Georgia played pretty well at Kentucky on Feb. 3, losing 69-58. Dawgs leading scorer and rebounder Marcus Thornton missed that one. He’s back now. Georgia was within five points with under two minutes left. Karl-Anthony Towns had 15 points and 13 rebounds for the Cats. UK was without Lyles.

Key trends: UK is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five after a loss. The Cats have covered only one of their past five on the road. Georgia has covered 12 of its past 17 vs. teams with a winning record. The Dawgs have covered three of their past 11 after a win of more than 20 points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Why take the underdog: I think Georgia might win. If the Cats roll, then I’m totally on board with them going all the way.

No. 20 West Virginia at No. 8 Kansas (TBA)

ESPN2 shows this Big 12 game at 9 p.m. ET. Kansas is currently projected as No. 2 seed in the East Region, while West Virginia is No. 6 in the Midwest.

The chances of Kansas winning a national title could hinge on whether star freshman Cliff Alexander is cleared of an NCAA investigation into his potential eligibility. He didn’t play Saturday in the Jayhawks’ 69-64 home win over Texas. The 6-foot-8 forward and former Top-10 recruit will not play again until the issue is resolved. The likely lottery pick is averaging 7.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. With Alexander out against Texas, junior forward Perry Ellis stepped up and finished with season highs in points (27) and rebounds (13), his seventh double-double of the year. There’s two player concerns for WVU (22-7, 10-6) as well. Senior guard Juwan Staten, who averages 14.5 points and 4.6 assists per game, missed Saturday’s 78-66 loss at Baylor with a knee injury. Coach Bob Huggins had said Friday he expected Staten to play, so maybe he does here. However, the status of team captain Gary Browne is also up in the air after he left the Baylor game less than three minutes in with an ankle injury.

This is the home finale for KU, which has won its past 31 straight home finales. A victory would guarantee KU at least a share of its 11th-straight Big 12 regular-season title. West Virginia beat visiting Kansas 62-61 on Feb. 16. Staten had 20 points, including the go-ahead layup with four seconds left. Ellis’ shot at the buzzer rimmed out for KU.

Key trends: WVU is 4-1 ATS in its past five Tuesday games. The Mountaineers are 8-18 ATS in their past 26 after loss. Kansas is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.

Why the TBA: Doesn’t seem like Alexander will play, and both WVU guys are iffy. I think KU romps regardless.

NC State at Clemson (pick’em)

Another 9 p.m. start for this game on ESPN3. It’s a must-win for NC State, which is currently listed among the “Last Four Byes.” The Wolfpack are listed as a No. 10 seed in the West.

The Wolfpack (17-12, 8-8) lost a game they shouldn’t have on Saturday, 79-63 at Boston College. The Eagles shot 65 percent in the first half and led by 17 at intermission. NC State was led by Kyle Washington’s 14 points off the bench. Ralston Turner had 13 as the Wolfpack had their three-game winning streak snapped. It was clearly a letdown game after an upset of North Carolina. NC State is now 1-7 in the game following a regular-season win over UNC in the past 18 seasons. Keep that in mind for next season. It’s the home finale for Clemson (16-12, 8-8). The Tigers come off a 70-63 overtime win over Georgia Tech, but they blew a 23-point lead as Tech missed its first 14 shots. Jaron Blossomgame had 19 points to lead Clemson.

Clemson won 68-57 at NC State on Jan. 28. The Tigers nearly blew a 23-point lead in that one too. The Tigers held the Wolfpack without a basket for more than 9 1/2 minutes, jumping to a 36-13 lead. NC State rallied to within three points with about nine minutes left but couldn’t get closer. Jordan Roper led Clemson with 18, while Trevor Lacey scored 17 points to lead the Wolfpack, who shot 29 percent.

Key trends: NC State has covered 13 of its past 16 after an ATS loss. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its past four at home. The Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings.

Why take the Wolfpack: That UNC hangover is in the past.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Tuesday, March 3 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Did you happen to watch Friday’s Oklahoma City game against Portland? Red-hot Russell Westbrook took a knee to the face from teammate Andre Roberson. It left Westbrook with a very freaky-looking dent in his face. He underwent surgery on Saturday to repair a fractured cheek bone, and the team will re-evaluate him this week to determine when Westbrook can return. Currently he is +450 to win the NBA MVP Award at Sportsbook but obviously more multiple games missed severely hurts his chances. Steph Curry remains the -220 favorite. Here’s a look at Tuesday’s schedule.

Lakers at Hornets (-7.5, 192)

Los Angeles’ rather unlikely three-game winning streak ended Sunday with a 108-101 loss to Oklahoma City even though the Thunder were without both Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Jeremy Lin had 20 points, eight assists and six rebounds for the Lakers. Leading scorer Nick Young missed his third straight game with a sore left knee. Charlotte won in Orlando 98-83 on Sunday. Mo Williams had 23 points and 11 assists. Hornets big man Bismack Biyombo returned to the lineup after missing 11 games with a bone bruise in his right knee. He was quiet in 14 minutes. The Hornets lost at the Lakers on Nov. 9, 107-92. That was L.A.’s first win of the season and it still had Kobe Bryant then.

Key trends: The Lakers have covered just two of their past 11 games. The “over/under” has gone over in L.A.’s past five games. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.

Early lean: Hornets and under.



Celtics at Cavaliers (-11.5, 209)

Cleveland lost 105-103 in overtime at Houston on Sunday, its second straight defeat. LeBron James had 37 points but missed two free throws with 4.2 seconds left in OT. He also missed a potential winning shot at the end of regulation. Cleveland played its second straight game without point guard Kyrie Irving. Reports are that he will return here. Boston lost 106-101 at home to Golden State on Sunday to end a three-game winning streak. The C’s were up 26 at one point. Cleveland beat visiting Boston 122-121 on Nov. 14. James had 41 as the Cavs overcame a 19-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

Key trends: Boston has covered eight straight against teams with a winning record. Cleveland is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games. The over is 5-1 in Boston’s past six.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over.



Kings at Knicks (TBA)

Sacramento dropped its second straight Sunday, 110-99 at home against Portland. Kings leading scorer and rebounder DeMarcus Cousins missed his second straight game with a sprained left ankle and bruised left hip (thus the TBA). The team is 2-12 when Cousins doesn’t play this season. This starts a season-high eight-game road trip. The Knicks have won two straight, upsetting Toronto 103-98 on Saturday. New York was without starting point guard. Jose Calderon as he’s dealing with an Achilles’ strain. He won’t play here. The Knicks lost 135-129 in OT in Sacramento on Dec. 27. Cousins had 39 in that one.

Key trends: The Kings are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games vs. teams with a losing home record. New York is 0-6 ATS in its past six Tuesday games. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Knicks if Cousins sits, Kings if he plays.



Rockets at Hawks (TBA)

Houston won its fifth straight Sunday with that overtime victory in Cleveland. James Harden had 33 points to continue his MVP case. He did get a flagrant foul when he kicked in the direction of James’ crotch as he fell as James tried to grab the ball from him late in the third, but I don’t see the league suspending him for that. Atlanta took its fourth straight win Saturday, 93-91 in Miami. Coach Mike Budenholzer gave Al Horford, Pero Antic, DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Teague the night off. All should be back in there for this one. The Hawks are now 34-3 when holding opponents under 100 points. Atlanta won in Houston 104-97 on Dec. 20. The game was tied with three minutes left. Harden was held to 18 but did have 14 assists.

Key trends: Houston has covered four straight games. Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The under is 6-0 in Atlanta’s past six.

Early lean: Atlanta will win at home.



Wizards at Bulls (TBA)

Chicago lost 96-86 at home to the Clippers on Sunday and also lost Jimmy Butler to injury. He hurt his elbow trying to fight through a pick and will miss 3-6 weeks. Huge blow to the Bulls, who are without Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson. Rose might return by the end of the season, while Gibson won’t play this week. Washington ended a season-high six-game losing streak on Saturday with a 99-95 win over Detroit. The Wizards welcomed back Bradley Beal in that one after he had missed eight straight games. Paul Pierce also was back after missing the previous two. Washington leads the season series 2-1.

Key trends: The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 road games. Washington is 4-1 ATS in its past five vs. Chicago. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Windy City.

Early lean: Wizards are a bad matchup for Chicago even when the Bulls are healthy. Go Washington.



Jazz at Grizzlies (-8.5, 182.5)

Memphis ended a two-game slide with a 101-97 victory in Minnesota on Saturday. Mike Conley hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 30 seconds left. The Grizzlies shot 59 percent and outscored Minnesota 52-30 in the paint. Utah won for the fourth time in five games Saturday, 82-75 over Milwaukee. Utah has been great on defense during that stretch, allowing just one team to score more than 82 points. The Jazz are going for their first three-game winning streak of the season. Utah and Memphis have split two meetings.

Key trends: Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its past five vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 9-0 in the Grizzlies’ past nine at home. The under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings.

Early lean: Grizzlies and under.



Bucks at Nuggets (+6.5, 193.5)

Denver lost its sixth straight Sunday, 99-92 at home to New Orleans. It was the Nuggets’ 10th straight loss at the Pepsi Center, the team’s longest home skid since losing 11 in a row during the 1997-98 season. Rookie center Jusuf Nurkic sat with a sprained right foot. He won’t play here. Forward Darrell Arthur might after missing a second straight game. Milwaukee has lost two straight and four of five, falling 82-75 in Utah on Saturday. O.J. Mayo played after missing the previous two games. Jared Dudley didn’t due to a bruised left knee. He’s day-to-day. Milwaukee beat visiting Denver 89-81 on Feb. 20.

Key trends: The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in the past six vs. the West. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its past six against the East. The under is 4-0 in Denver’s past four.

Early lean: Nuggets end the losing streak.