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NCAAB Tuesday's Top Action

HAMPTON PIRATES (16-17) vs. MANHATTAN JASPERS (19-13)

University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, OH
NCAA Tournament - First Round
Tip-off: Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: Manhattan -7.5

Manhattan and Hampton face-off Tuesday and the winner would earn a second round matchup with No. 1 Kentucky.

The Hampton Pirates earned a spot in the tournament after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference on Saturday. The Pirates faced Delaware State in the championship and won 82-61 as 1.5-point underdogs. The team was not favored in any of its tournament games, but it enters the NCAA tournament after having won-and-covered in five straight contests.

Manhattan, meanwhile, caught fire at the end of the season. The Jaspers beat a very talented Iona team 79-69 as 3.5-point underdogs in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference championship on Mar. 9. The team won-and-covered in its past three games and enters this tournament after having won seven of its past eight games SU. This meeting between the teams will be the first ever. Hampton is 7-0 ATS in all lined games this season. Manhattan, however, is 11-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season and 8-1 ATS in all tournament games over the past two seasons.

G Dwight Meikle (Ankle) is listed as questionable for the Pirates in this game and the Jaspers are not currently dealing with any injuries heading into the tournament.

Hampton was one of the most unexpected teams to be in the tournament field, as the team went under .500 in the regular season but earned an automatic berth with a win in its conference tournament. The team is mediocre on both ends of the floor, averaging 67.2 PPG (183rd in NCAA) on 40.8% shooting (294th in NCAA) and allowing 68.0 PPG (224th in NCAA).

The best player for this team all season was G Dwight Meikle (13.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG), but he did not play in any of the team’s conference tournament victories. He is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable for this game. If he were unable to go then G Reggie Johnson (11.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG) would need to step his game up. Johnson did just that against Delaware State, pouring in 20 points in the game. He has a solid shot from the outside (35% 3PT), but he’ll need to avoid jacking up low percentage shots Tuesday.

G Brian Darden (9.7 PPG) also came up big in the victory Saturday, scoring 20 points in 36 minutes. He is yet another good outside shooter (36% 3PT) and must come ready to contribute if Meikle is unable to play. G Deron Powers (10.5 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is one of the most consistent performers for this team. He had 16 points in the conference championship and has now scored 16+ in three of the past four games. He is a good scorer and knows when to get his teammates involved.

F Quinton Chievous (10.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is the team’s best rebounder even though he is just 6-foot-6. Chievous struggled against the Hornets on Saturday, finishing with just five points and four rebounds in 24 minutes. He’ll need to really be a force on the glass against the Jaspers Tuesday.

F Charles Wilson-Fisher (3.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG) has had three games with 7+ rebounds in the past four games. He could be in for some increased minutes in this game, as he is one of the only players with size on this entire roster.

Manhattan is a solid team offensively, averaging 69.9 PPG (103rd in NCAA) on 43.5% shooting (181st in NCAA). The team does, however, allow a lousy 67.5 PPG (199th in NCAA) despite averaging 8.1 SPG (21st in NCAA). The Jaspers will need to tighten things up defensively in the tournament, but one thing they’ll be glad to have in this game is size.

F Ashton Pankey (13.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG) could really dominate Hampton on Tuesday. Pankey is big and knows how to throw his body around in the post. He had 21 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and two blocks against Iona in the conference championship and should really be able to have his way against a small Hampton frontcourt.

F Emmy Andujar (16.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.1 SPG), however, is the Jaspers’ most important player. Andujar does it all for Manhattan and will make whatever the play is that his teammates need in order to win. He had 18 points, 11 boards, four assists and two steals against Iona and will need to hit the glass hard against Hampton. Although Andujar is more of a perimeter player, he has the size to really disrupt the Pirates inside with Pankey.

G RaShawn Stores (6.3 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.2 SPG) is a solid playmaker for this team in the backcourt. Stores can knock down outside shots (42% 3PT) and rarely ever forces the issue. He’s averaging 9.0 PPG over the past two games and if he can score like that then Manhattan should advance to a matchup with Kentucky.

G Shane Richards (13.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG) could be the x-factor for this game. Richards is an incredible shooter from behind the arc (39% shooter) and if he gets hot then Hampton may not have the firepower to keep up with Manhattan Tuesday.

OLE MISS REBELS (20-12) vs. BYU COUGARS (25-9)

University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, OH
NCAA Tournament – First Round
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. ET
Line: BYU -3.0

Ole Miss and BYU will be looking to advance to the second round of the NCAA tournament when the teams meet Tuesday.

Ole Miss stumbled its way into the tournament, losing 60-58 as a 4-point favorite against South Carolina in the SEC tournament. The Rebels lost four of their last five games heading into this game. They’ve now covered in just one of their past six games as well.

BYU, however, lost for the first time in nine games when it lost 91-75 as an 8-point underdog against Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference championship. The Cougars covered in seven of the eight games they won before losing both SU and ATS to Gonzaga. The team has scored 75+ points in eight of its past nine games and that type of offense is going to be really tough to keep up with for a Rebels team that scored over 75 points in just three of their past 10 games.

This will be the first time these teams have ever played one another. Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS when playing as an underdog this season. BYU, meanwhile, is 204-153 ATS when playing as a favorite since 1997.

Gs Anson Winder (Knee) and Skyler Halford (Leg) are listed as questionable for the Cougars, who are already without F Nate Austin (Hamstring), G Jordan Chatman (Ankle) and F Jamal Aytes (Ankle) for the season. The Rebels aren’t dealing with any injuries heading into the tournament.

Ole Miss had a very good offensive team this season, averaging 72.6 PPG (52nd in NCAA) on 42.6% shooting (223rd in NCAA). The team took a lot of ill-advised shots, but was able to put up points when it needed to. On the other end, the Rebels gave up 67.5 PPG (200th in NCAA) and will have to be ready to defend an explosive Cougars offense.

This is a deep Rebels squad but in order for the team to win,
G Stefan Moody (16.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.8 SPG) must play well. Moody is a trigger-happy guard that can fall in love with his outside jumper (35% 3PT). He is an excellent on-ball defender and can really force a ton of turnovers, but he must be disciplined on offense. If he is forcing up too many shots then he will not help his team in this one.

G Jarvis Summers (12.4 PPG, 4.6 APG) is a very smart player in this backcourt. Summers knows how to get to the basket to finish at the rim or draw fouls (5.2 FTA per game, 76% FT), but he is also a willing passer. He’ll need to set his teammates up for some open buckets in this one. G Ladarius White (11.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG) is another very productive player for this team. White is a lights-out shooter (41% 3PT) and can shoot his team into games or right out of them. He’ll need to catch fire in this game against a BYU team that is surely going to put up a ton of points on Tuesday.

Fs M.J. Rhett (6.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Dwight Coleby (5.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) are going to be counted on to bang inside for this team. These two are some of the only rotation players with size for the Rebels. They combined for just 12 rebounds when the team got bounced by South Carolina in the SEC tournament and they must be more imposing on the glass Tuesday.

BYU ran one of the most potent offenses in college basketball, averaging 83.6 PPG (2nd in NCAA) on 46.7% shooting (46th in NCAA). The team knows how to pass the ball (16.8 APG, 5th in NCAA) and also hits the glass aggressively (38.5 RPG, 15th in NCAA). Defensively is where this team has had its issues, allowing 72.6 PPG (315th in NCAA). That is, however, a product of the pace the Cougars prefer to play at.

G Tyler Haws (21.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG) is going to be a player the Rebels will have their attention on. Haws is one of the best scorers in college basketball and has the ability to score if his defender loses focus for less than a second. He is a tremendous three-point shooter (36% 3PT) and also gets himself to the free throw line often (6.9 FTA per game, 88% FT).

While Haws is one of the best scorers in the nation, G Kyle Collinsworth (14.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.8 SPG) is one of the most versatile players in college basketball. There is nothing that Collinsworth is not capable of doing on the court and the guard posted six triple-doubles this season. He can score in a number of ways and is also just an excellent passer and rebounder. G Chase Fischer (12.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.0 APG) is a dangerous player in this backcourt. Fischer can really shoot the three-ball (41% 3PT) and will not hesitate to let it fly on Tuesday.

G Skyler Halford (8.7 PPG) is another lethal outside shooter (48% 3PT) for this team. He is questionable for this game, but would see a major increase in minutes if G Anson Winder (13.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG) were unable to suit up. If that is the case then this team shouldn’t skip a beat offensively. Halford’s ability to shoot the three will make sure the Rebels don’t key in on Haws or Collinsworth too much. If both are unable to play then some of the team’s other bench players will need to step it up offensively.
 
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'NCAA TOURNAMENT'

The 2015 NCAA Tournament has arrived with the expanded 'First Four' tipping off Tuesday as Hampton Pirates take on Manhattan Jaspers (-9.0) for a shot at top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats in the round of 64. In the later game, Ole Miss and BYU (-4.0) will both be looking to advance for an opportunity to upend six-seeded Xavier Musketeers. Then on Wednesday it's Robert Morris Colonials facing North Florida Osprey (-3.0) aiming for a crack at number one seed Duke Blue Devils. The finale has Boise State Broncos and Dayton Flyers (-4.0) attempting to grab an eleven-seed spot that would pit them against six-seeded Providence Fryers in the Big Dance.
 
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College Basketball Betting: NCAA BIG DANCE BETTING TIPS
Scott Spreitzer


Next to the Super Bowl, college basketball’s NCAA Tournament is the biggest sports betting event of the year in Las Vegas. Sports books are jam-packed through opening weekend as avid fans from all over the country flock here for the experience of a lifetime.

Sports books love the energy…and all the money they make from casual bettors who may not always realize that they’re taking the worst of it in the markets!

Here are some keys I will be using when handicapping the Big Dance.

*Media-hyped conferences and teams are generally over-priced in the line. Sportsbooks charge a premium on these teams because the public wants to bet them. Compounding matters, those teams are often overrated anyway! Think about the ACC last year. Conference champion Virginia was a #1 seed that couldn’t get past the Sweet 16. Duke and Syracuse were both #3 seeds who fell early. Duke lost to #14 seed Mercer the first time they took the floor. Syracuse lost to #11 Dayton in its second game. Public bettors were paying a premium on what were already bad lines once it was realized that the ACC as a whole was overrated.

TIP: Look for great spots to fade media darlings. Study unheralded entries to see if you can discover potential Cinderellas who have the talent and experience to succeed.

*Three-point heavy teams can be over-priced in the line. This is because they post such big numbers in their victories that they seem like super-teams. Well, they are when the bombs are falling. But, when those shots are clanking off the rim, three-point heavy teams turn mortal very quickly. It’s much harder to string together good shooting games on neutral courts in tournament style basketball than it is during the regular season. Filling your office pool brackets with trey-heavy teams is a recipe for heartbreak. Backing them against the point-spread does the same thing. When you win…you’ll cover by a lot of points. That doesn't help you if you’re only winning 40-45% of these bets.

TIP: Avoid trey-heavy offenses. Look to bet on balanced teams who can score inside and out, and who play well on both sides of the floor. If you study the stats closely, you’ll notice that many trey-heavy teams are hiding fairly soft defenses that tend to get exposed in March.

*The public tends to treat the tournament like roulette. By that, I mean that some want to bet “hot” teams who they think will keep playing well. Others want to bet “the due theory” if a team just survived a nail-biter and is in position to bounce back strong. The thing about roulette is…everybody loses! You can’t beat roulette over time because the 0 and 00 on the board take everyone’s money. You can’t beat the tournament playing “hot” or “bounce back” teams because the vigorish eats away at bad strategies. Every NCAA tournament game is a chess match, not a wheel spin. Smart bettors handicap the chess match to find real edges that matter.

TIP: Focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each team (and head coach) and evaluate games accordingly. Hey, sometimes a team will look “hot” because their skill set is well-suited to tournament basketball (like Connecticut last season). But, the Huskies didn’t run the table because they were “hot.” They cut down the nets because great defense and guard play are proven advantages in the Dance! Chasing “hot” just puts you on teams who are about to crash and burn after playing a game or two over their heads. Focusing on strengths and weaknesses will help you top the needed win percentage to overcome vigorish.

To help you find teams who are best suited to win chess matches, I strongly recommend the following:

*Look for experienced point guards who can score and pass
*Look for rebounding teams, particularly defensive rebounding teams
*Look for head coaches who have consistently performed well in the Dance
*Look for teams who enjoy friendly travel/crowd scenarios
*Look for teams who were playing their best basketball in the last month of the season

Now, a list of characteristics for teams who are worst suited to win chess matches

*Fade offenses that are turnover prone, particularly those with inexperienced guards
*Fade poor rebounding teams, particularly those who struggle on the defensive end
*Fade head coaches who have a history of leaving the brackets earlier than expected
*Fade teams in awkward travel or “body clock” scenarios
*Fade teams who peaked in the first half of the season but struggled down the stretch

Smart handicappers will have done a lot of work researching these issues in advance of plucking down their money. If you’re serious about making money this month…you should attack that process yourself. Let the casual fans throw their money away on overpriced favorites or uninformed Cinderella hunches. Follow proven strategies to insure that you’re making smart bets so you make the most of March Madness!

Good luck, as always...Scott Spreitzer.
 

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