Tuesday 2/24/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Panthers (26-21) at Blackhawks (35-20)

Date: February 24, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

(AP) - Chicago Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville took a long look at his power play, then moved one goal to the corner of the ice and put his players through battle drills for a loose puck along the boards.

No one is pressing the panic button in Chicago, but the Blackhawks know they have to step up their play as they complete an already disappointing eight-game homestand Tuesday night in the front end of a home-and-home set with the playoff-hopeful Florida Panthers.

'The `get attention' button is where I'm at. ... I got it pushed,' Quenneville said after Monday's practice.

Chicago is 10-10-3 in 2015 after losing three in a row for the first time since last March. Defenseman Johnny Oduya left Sunday's ugly 6-2 loss to Boston with an upper-body injury that will keep him out for a couple weeks, hurting an already shaky group of defensemen beyond the top three.

The Blackhawks (35-20-5) are 2-2-3 on their longest homestand of the season and five points back of second-place St. Louis in the Central Division.

'We can be better in a lot of areas,' said winger Patrick Sharp, who hasn't scored in 12 games. 'Whether you want to say effort, desperation, you name it. I know everybody in this locker room cares. Everyone is carrying it with us. We want to break out of this funk that we're in.'

Sharp had team highs of 34 goals and 78 points last season, but he has struggled with 10 goals, 21 assists and a minus-13 rating in 46 games. He skated with Patrick Kane and Brad Richards on the second line in practice Monday, a combination that could help Sharp get untracked if Quenneville decides to stay with it for an extended period.

'I'm not too concerned right now with who I'm playing with when I go out there, what power play I'm on, you name it,' Sharp said. 'I'm just concerned with myself getting back to playing as well as I can.'

Chicago made a couple of minor moves after the loss to Boston, promoting goaltender Scott Darling and forward Joakim Nordstrom from the minors and sending goalie Antti Raanta and forward Ryan Hartman to Rockford of the AHL.

The Blackhawks also announced a two-year extension for Darling, who gets the start against the Panthers (26-21-12). Darling is 5-2-0 with a 1.97 goals-against average in seven games with the Blackhawks.

Chicago has allowed 21 non-shootout goals during the homestand, but Quenneville downplayed any role that Oduya's situation could play in the team's decision-making ahead of next Monday's trade deadline.

'We really don't have much confidence right now, the way we're playing,' forward Bryan Bickell said. 'Our work ethic and our passion and all those little things, we need to bring every shift every game to make this team get over that hump and be better.'

The Panthers are having problems of their own during a 2-4-1 stretch. They lost 4-1 at Ottawa on Saturday and 5-1 in Pittsburgh on Sunday and sit three points back of Boston for the Eastern Conference's final wild-card spot.

"Guys in here realize that this time of year is when the men come out and the men play hockey," said forward Scottie Upshall, who scored against the Penguins. "Every play is magnified and games are won by one-goal games and it's the difference of one simple play. So you just have to be consistent and you have to realize the opportunity that it is."

It's unclear if former Blackhawks center Dave Bolland, who missed Sunday's contest with an undisclosed injury, will be available as the Panthers complete a five-game road trip.

Roberto Luongo could be back in net after Al Montoya got the nod against Pittsburgh. Luongo is 4-2-2 with a 2.07 GAA in his last eight starts after falling to Ottawa.

Florida, which has lost five straight meetings, begins a seven-game homestand Thursday against Chicago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Pacers (23-33) at Thunder (31-25)

Date: February 24, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

After learning they'd have to endure another stretch without Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook made sure the Oklahoma City Thunder would have no problem extending the offensive surge that has keyed their winning streak.

They might not have as easy of a time against the improving Indiana Pacers, who are as healthy as they've been all season.

As Westbrook looks to continue his strong play without the reigning MVP, the Thunder will try to match their longest winning streak of the season at seven Tuesday night against the visiting Pacers.

Durant is expected to miss at least a week after he had minor surgery Sunday to alleviate pain in his right foot. The six-time All-Star has been limited to 27 games because of the broken foot, sprained right ankle and sprained left big toe.

The Thunder (31-25) haven't let that keep them from building a slight advantage in the race for the Western Conference's final playoff spot after a 3-12 start. They've won four in a row and seven of their last nine without Durant.

Westbrook has played a major role in that success, averaging 32.8 points and 10.2 assists in the last five games when Durant has been sidelined. He's also put up 29.3 points and 12.3 assists per game in the past three overall following a 41-point effort in the All-Star Game.

'Russell's at a high level, but he's been playing this way for a long time, for a lot of years, and every year, like all the special players do, they come back a little bit better,' coach Scott Brooks said.

Westbrook had 21 points, a career-high 17 assists and eight rebounds in Sunday's 119-94 home win over Denver.

Enes Kanter contributed 20 points and 12 rebounds for his second double-double in as many starts since being acquired from Utah on Thursday. Serge Ibaka added 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.

The Thunder are averaging 115.5 points during their streak after entering the stretch scoring just 99.5 per game.

The Pacers (23-33) should provide a difficult test after limiting opponents to 95.3 points on 41.4 percent shooting in their last four games. They took advantage of Stephen Curry's absence Sunday, holding Golden State to 38.2 percent from the floor and well below its league-leading 110.3 scoring average in a 104-98 home win.

Paul George was the lone player on the injury report for the Pacers, who have lost a total of 180 games due to injury.

Rodney Stuckey overcame a sprained left ankle to match a season high with 30 points off the bench as Indiana inched closer to a playoff spot with a season high-tying third straight win and sixth in seven games.

'We've been playing great basketball and it's another great win against a great team,' said Stuckey, who also scored 30 in a 106-95 win at Philadelphia on Friday. 'We've just got to keep it up.'

The Pacers are showing life offensively, scoring 104.1 per game over their last seven after averaging 92.6 in their previous eight. The Thunder, though, have held opponents to 40.9 percent shooting since Jan. 26 - the best mark in the league.

Oklahoma City (plus-4.2) and Indiana (2.8) both rank among the league leaders in rebounding margin, and the Thunder have posted an impressive plus-16.5 mark over their last four games.

They've also won 11 of 12 at Chesapeake Energy Arena and eight of nine home meetings with the Pacers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Western Conference betting road map: After deals, Suns still pack punch
By STEVE MERRIL

Steve Merril breaks down the betting road map in the NBA’s Western Conference, including the Denver Nuggets cleaning house at the trade deadline and the uptempo Phoenix Suns taking other other offensive-minded squads this week.

Spread Watch

Denver took advantage of the trading deadline by unloading unwanted players and clearing big money off their books. The Nuggets are looking towards the future, and their remaining 27 games are a tool for them to get higher in the draft.

Denver is packing this season in as they just traded away one third of their roster that opened the season.

“It’s a long-term vision, certainly,” Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly said. “The ultimate goal is to figure out how we can get 15 guys in that locker room that can play at a high enough level for us to compete for a championship.” Those words tell us all we need to know, so look to fade the Nuggets from now until the end of the season.

Total Watch

Phoenix made some big trades at the deadline. They shipped Goran Dragic to Miami and Isaiah Thomas to Boston. The Suns’ backcourt was too cluttered, but with the moves, Phoenix now has a defined rotation with Eric Bledsoe and Gerald Green starting at the guard spots.

The Suns acquired Milwaukee’s leading scorer, Brandon Knight, and he will anchor the second unit, giving Phoenix pace and scoring punch when the starters are on the bench. The Suns have four games this week against fast-paced, offensive orientated teams, so expect high-scoring games from Phoenix.

Injury impact

Anthony Davis could miss up to two weeks after he suffered an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder on Saturday night. The New Orleans Pelicans rely heavily on Davis on both ends of the court, and his absence is certainly not a good thing for the team.

New Orleans also lost Davis’ backup, Ryan Anderson, who could miss up to four weeks with a MCL sprain in his right knee. Jrue Holiday is also out, leaving the Pelicans extremely thin.

Fortunately for New Orleans, three of their four games this week come at home, and they’ll play against weak teams with the lone exception being Monday’s game versus Toronto.

Playbook

Minnesota reacquired Kevin Garnett at the deadline. While KG’s return to the Twin Cities is somewhat nostalgic, not so sure how much of a positive this is for the growth of the team.

Minnesota is a youthful bunch that has been going thru the NBA grind for the first time. Garnett is a veteran that takes control of the locker room, and insiders report that the culture is about to change, and not for the good.

The young players on the Timberwolves are loose and free, but with Garnett around, they will become tight and apprehensive. Minnesota has a brutal schedule this week with four games against playoff bound opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards February 24, 2015

Warriors suffering a 104-98 loss at Indiana Sunday look to get back into the win column when they visit struggling Wizards who have dropped three in-a-row (1-2 ATS), eight of ten (3-7 ATS) and ten of their last fourteen (3-11 ATS).

Wizards in a scoring/defensive slump over the current three-game slide netting 90.3 PPG while allowing 109.3 per/contest will be hard pressed ending the skid vs the leagues top ranked scoring team (110.3). Consider Warriors knowing Washington has failed to cash the last five vs a Western Conference foe and that Wizards enter 2-22-1 ATS allowing 100 or more points including 1-10-1 ATS in a home underdog roll.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Pac-12 Analysis
By Jim Feist

There's the Big 5 in Pac-12 basketball with a string of teams battling for the top spot. Here's a look at the strengths and weaknesses of some of college basketball's best teams in the conference.

Arizona: The Wildcats are a Pac-12 and national powerhouse, leading the conference with a +7 rebound margin and one of the top teams in the nation in free throw attempts. They can play aggressive man-to-man defense and the offense is versatile behind 6-7 freshman Stanley Johnson (14.5 PPG, 7 RPG), 6-9 junior Brandon Ashley (11 PPG, 5 RPG), 6-7 soph Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and senior G T.J. McConnell (9 PPG, 4 RPG, 5.8 APG).

They have been winning and covering, on a recent 10-3 spread run before rival Arizona State stormed the court in an 81-78 upset. The Cats took down a pair of Top 20 teams in non-conference competition, but they were close games in wins over SDSU (61-59) and Gonzaga (66-63), the latter in overtime. Arizona is 21-9-2 against the spread after 20+ win point.

Utah: The Utes have been winning with great defense for a while under Coach Larry Krystkowiak. Utah is on a sizzling 37-14-2 ATS spread run behind 6-5 senior Delon Wright (14.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.9 APG), 5-10 junior Brandon Taylor (11 PPG, 3.4 APG) and 6-6 junior Jordan Loveridge (10.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG).

Krystkowiak demands defense and they have a strong low post presence in 7-foot Jakob Poeltl (9 PPG, 7.6 RPG). Utah is 40-17-1 ATS against the Pac-12. They came up short in a loss to No. 10 Kansas (63-60) as +4 home dog and lost at No. 16 SDSU (53-49). They are looking forward to a rematch with rival Arizona this week, after losing 69-51 in the first meeting last month. The under is 17-5 in the Utes last 22 road games.

Oregon: The Ducks are not shy about running, top 20 in the nation in scoring behind senior guard Joseph Young (19.7 PPG) and 6-6 junior Elgin Cook (12.5 PPG). This is not a big team with 6-7 junior Dwayne Benjamin their leading rebounder. And when defense is required against top opponents the Ducks have wilted, losing to Arizona (90-56 & 80-62), a loss to VCU (77-63) and giving up 85 and 108 in Pac-12 losses to Washington and WSU. OK, so the loss to the Cougars was in overtime, but they allowed 94 in regulation and Washington State shot 59% from the field and nailed 14-of-24 threes.

Stanford: The Cardinal is led by a trio of impressive seniors in guard Chase Randle (20 PPG), 6-6 senior Anthony Brown (15.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and 6-11 Stefan Nastic (13.8 PPG, 7 RPG), one of the top offensive teams in the nation. That experience has helped in close games, beating Texas (74-71) and Washington (68-60) in overtime, plus they gave Arizona a run before losing 89-82. They could tighten up the defense, as that latter game was part of a stretch going 7-1 over the total. Offense is important, but you need to lean on defense come tourney play. Stanford wraps up a three-game homestand this week before concluding the regular season with a road trip to play both Arizona schools.

Oregon State: The Beavers don’t care for the running game, preferring a slow pace and a choking defense. Just ask Arizona, who Oregon State upset (58-56) allowing 38% shooting and just 4-of-17 from long range. That was the first meeting. The second meeting Arizona scored just 57 points and shot 41%, but won easily, 57-34, as Oregon State shot 28%!

Junior guard Gary Payton II (12.7 PPG, 8 RPG) is a dynamite rebounder for a guard, while sophomore Malcolm Duvivier (10 PPG) is a fine playmaker, giving the Beavers a great and versatile backcourt. They do have some trouble on the road, both straight up and against the spread. Totals players take note: Oregon State went on a recent 9-1 run under the total. Wait until tournament play starts when defense becomes even more pronounced.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Tuesday's Top Action

WISCONSIN BADGERS (25-2) at MARYLAND TERRAPINS (22-5)

XFINITY Center – College Park, MD
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -5.0

The top two squads in the Big Ten clash for the first time as conference members when No. 5 Wisconsin visits No. 14 Maryland.

No. 5 Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the nation not named Kentucky (10 game win streak; winners of 18 of last 19). Over the course of their current win streak, though, they have not faced one top-25 team – this isn’t entirely their fault, as the Big Ten only boasts one other current top-25 team, Maryland.

The Terrapins are 4-1 in their last five games and are undefeated at home (7-0) in conference play. Maryland comes off recent home wins versus Indiana and Nebraska on Feb. 11 and this past Thursday and a road win at Penn State on Feb. 14. The long break will give them plenty of time to prepare for Coach Bo Ryan’s group, but doesn’t statistically provide Maryland with a huge advantage (9-4 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 68 PPG w/3+ days rest).

Wisconsin is fresh off wins at Penn State and at home versus Minnesota on Wednesday and Saturday, respectively. Both Wisconsin and Maryland have been unreliable ATS in recent games, with both Badger wins last week failing to cover. Wisconsin is 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) however as a road favorite to date this season and is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games away from the Kohl Center. Maryland has just been awful ATS at home (3-11, 1-5 last five), and is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games.

The Terrapins are 0-1 SU (0-1 ATS) as a home underdog this season (Virginia). The total has gone Over in four of the last six contests Wisconsin has played on the road, while Maryland’s total has gone Under in four of its past six games. Historically, Wisconsin is 3-2 SU (3-2 ATS) since 2000 with these two teams last facing off in Jan. 2009.

G Traevon Jackson (9.4 PPG), who’s missed the Badgers last 10 games, will travel with the team to College Park but is not expected to play.

At the top of the list of things to watch for the Badgers will be how undefeated fill-in G Bronson Koenig (7.7 PPG, 2.3 APG, 40% 3PT) fares in his toughest individual matchup to date (Maryland’s stud freshman G Melo Trimble – 16.1 PPG, 3.1 APG), especially with the return of Jackson on the horizon. Koenig struggled in his only confrontation with an elite counterpart (Penn State’s D.J. Newbill), and if Trimble poses problems, then Coach Bo Ryan could conceivably reinstate Jackson as the starter when healthy for the defensive advantage the Badgers gain. Wisconsin’s frontcourt is as good as anyone’s in the nation.

C Frank Kaminsky (17.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 55% FG), F Sam Dekker (13.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 52% FG), and F Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 53% FG) should feast on Maryland’s lack of beef up front. Kaminsky has eclipsed 20 points in six of his past 10 contests, while Dekker just had a 10 game double-figures scoring streak snapped with an uncharacteristic 5-point outing versus Minnesota.

G Josh Gasser (7.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 threes/game) provides the Badgers with a spot-up shooting option and will be asked to have a big role on defense in containing the Terrapins’ multiple perimeter options. While Wisconsin’s scoring defense is largely pace-driven (55.4 PPG, 1st in Big Ten, 8th in NCAA) given that they allow opponents to shoot it decently from the field (44.4% FG defense, 10th Big Ten), the Badgers have started tightening up their grip on opponent’s shooting as of late (held four of last five opponents to 40% or under from the field). This is good because Wisconsin’s points-per-possession numbers have dipped to, gasp, 4th (they were first just last week) in college basketball (1.2 PPP) and Wisconsin’s FG% offense (48%, 2nd Big Ten) has dipped under 40% from the field in three of their past five games (something that hadn’t been done since Dec. 5th versus Marquette).

Maryland boasts an average offense (67 PPG in conference, 6th in Big Ten) predicated on the perimeter play of Trimble, G Dez Wells (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.8 APG) and F Jake Layman (13.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 49% FG). Nobody else on the Terrapins averages more than 6.6 PPG (G Richaud Pack) as nobody else besides Pack plays more than 19 minutes per game, either.

Maryland’s big three have been absolutely huge lately, as they’re all shooting above 50% FG in their past three games (Trimble is at 63%). Wells is filling it up to the tune of 18 points per game over his last three, while Trimble – in accordance with his marksmanship from the field – is going off for 21.3 points per game in that same span.

Maryland’s biggest weapon is its ability to get to – and convert – from the charity stripe (25.2% of points come via FT, 12th in NCAA; 74.8% FT, 18th in NCAA). As the conference’s leading free throw shooter at 87.9%, Trimble also leads the league in attempts (190) and is the perfect closer when Maryland has a lead. The Terrapins’ defense is also middle-of-the-road (64.3 PPG-allowed, 121st NCAA; 40.4 FG% defense, 72nd NCAA).

That said, again, they get a huge boost from the free throw line – in this case, the points they prevent from the stripe. Maryland allows only 15.6% of opponents points from the stripe (12th in NCAA) and “holds” opponents to 65.2% FT (1st in Big Ten). Maryland’s last top-10 opponent, Virginia, shot a hair over 70% from the line at the XFINITY Center in December, so the free throw line will be an area of the court to focus on come Tuesday night.

FLORIDA GATORS (13-14) at MISSOURI TIGERS (7-20)

Mizzou Arena - Columbia, MO
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida -6.5

The Gators head to Columbia Tuesday to face a Missouri team that has lost 13 straight games.

Florida has been miserable lately, losing 70-63 as 5-point underdogs at LSU for its fifth SU loss in six games. The Gators are also 2-4 ATS in those contests and they haven’t scored 65+ points in eight straight games. They will need to start playing better offensively or it will be extremely difficult for them to crawl out of this hole and even make the NIT Tournament. Fortunately for Florida, the team is now facing a Missouri team that lost its 13th straight game in a 76-53 defeat at Vanderbilt on Saturday.

The Tigers are 4-8-1 ATS over the course of their losing streak and they have not been good on either side of the ball. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 72-49 victory for Florida in the SEC Tournament last season. Florida has won three of the past four games between these teams SU, but Missouri is 2-2 ATS in those games and won-and-covered the only time they hosted the Gators. The past three games played between these teams also happened to go Under the total. Florida has struggled when being a favorite on the road, going just 1-4 SU and ATS this season. Missouri, meanwhile, is 1-6 SU but 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.

F Dorian Finney-Smith (Suspension) will miss the game against Missouri and G Michael Frazier II (Ankle), C John Egbunu (Eligibility), G Brandone Francis (Academics) and G DeVon Walker (Knee) are either out indefinitely or for the season for Florida. G Wes Clark (Knee) is out for the season for Missouri.

Florida has been extremely disappointing this season and a lot of that has to do with its poor offense. The Gators are scoring just 64.8 PPG (242nd in NCAA) on 43.3% shooting (192nd in NCAA) and that is not going to cut it. Defensively they’ve been a lot better, allowing just 59.8 PPG (28th in NCAA).

This team is extremely depleted due to injuries and suspensions and the Gators are now heavily relying on the play of G Eli Carter (8.9 PPG) and F Devin Robinson (6.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG). Carter is a streaky player for the Gators and is coming off of a game where he had 14 points, four rebounds and three assists in a loss at LSU. Carter is a volume scorer and can score in a number of ways, but he’s really struggled from behind the arc this season (30% 3PT). He will need to find his stroke in order to get this team back to .500 on Tuesday. Devin Robinson has performed extremely well for a first-year player, averaging 12.0 PPG and 6.5 RPG over the past two games.

Robinson is tough to guard around the basket and he’ll need to continue to grow as a player this season. C Jon Horford (6.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG) is a tough player inside, but he doesn’t necessarily do anything well for this Gators team. He had six points, nine rebounds and three blocks against LSU but he has not been the type of offensive player that Billy Donovan had hoped he’d be. He has a solid jumper and passes very well for a big man, but he has not translated those skills into stats or wins.

G Kasey Hill (7.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.0 SPG) had a good game against LSU on Saturday, finishing with nine points, five assists, four rebounds and four steals in 37 minutes. Hill had big expectations coming into the season, but he has not lived up to them. He’s going to need to play out his mistakes the rest of the season in order to be an impact player a year from now.

Missouri has been one of the worst teams in the nation this year, struggling mightily on both ends of the floor. The team is scoring just 61.7 PPG (305th in NCAA) on 41.0% shooting (293rd in NCAA) and allowing a miserable 69.5 PPG (263rd in NCAA).

G Wes Clark (10.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) was one of this team’s best sources of offense, but he’s out for the season after injuring his knee. Now F Johnathan Williams II (12.4 PPG, 7.0 APG) will need to carry even more of the offensive burden for the Tigers. Williams III really struggled against Vanderbilt last game, finishing with just six points in 21 minutes and he also got himself into foul trouble. He’ll need to stay disciplined against Florida because he is this team’s leading scorer and rebounder. He also happens to be one of the best shooters (37% 3PT) they have as well. If he can stay on the court, he should be able to give the Gators some problems.

G Keith Shamburger (8.5 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will have to play a very good game for this Tigers team on Tuesday. He had nine points, eight assists and four rebounds against Vanderbilt on Saturday and plays with an extremely high motor at all times. Shamburger fills up the stat sheet and does everything his coach asks of him on a nightly basis. If he can limit his turnovers and stay out of foul trouble, he should give a weak Gators backcourt some serious issues.

G Montaque Gill-Caesar (9.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG) has scored 11 points in back-to-back games for this team. He has been getting consistent minutes, but will need to find a way to knock down some shots. He has struggled with his outside shooting over the past three games (1-for-12 3PT) and will not help this team if he is not knocking down open jumpers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How to best bet college basketball's NCAA bubble teams
By JASON LOGAN

The word “bubble” is going to start popping in your ear more and more over the next two weeks. For college basketball fans, the bubble means a team is on the cusp of the NCAA tournament – where a big win or bad loss can make the difference come Selection Sunday.

For basketball bettors, however, bubble teams mean value – either betting on or against them. Programs with uncertain futures this March can provide some extra pop for your college hoops wagers, playing with added motivation to get off the bubble. Or they can be fade bait, crumbling under the weight of the bubble until their tournament hopes burst with a season-ending slump.

With only a handful of games left for these schools to paint their postseason picture, we break down the best ways to handicap and wager bubble teams in the home stretch of the conference schedule:

Size up the sked

There are more than 20 squads currently tagged as “bubble teams” when scouring the mainstream media polls and countless more that could eek their way into one of the 68 NCAA spots available. The first step in finding the value with the bubble is to break down which teams actually have the best shots at impressing the selection committee in the final two weeks.

Major conferences usually offer teams one or two more games versus ranked rivals, the best way for them to boost their NCAA resume. This is automatic hope for these schools, who know that if they take care of those big-name opponents, they have a chance to go dancing.

One team currently on the tourney fence is Texas, which sits 6-8 in Big 12 play. The Longhorns haven’t scored many wins against notable names and are just 1-10 against programs ranked in the Top 50 in RPI. However, the Horns have three of their four remaining Big 12 games against ranked opponents – WVU, Kansas and Baylor – with plenty of opportunities to get off the bubble. That could keep Rick Barnes' kids competitive in each of those games.

On the other hand, a program like Cincinnati has already played its conference heavyweights in the AAC and is left with an unimpressive schedule featuring Central Florida, Tulane, Tulsa, and Memphis. Even if the Bearcats win out in those four games, they may not have enough clout to avoid their bubble bursting – outside of an impressive conference tournament. If Cincinnati drops one of those games, it could lose focus knowing an at-large bid to the Big Dance isn’t in the cards.

Spot bets

Sizing up spot bets – no matter the sport – is a keen handicapping process. And this approach to wagering holds even more value when it comes to bubble teams down the stretch.

A team needing a notable win to puff up its March Madness chances can often times get caught looking past an unranked opponent on the weekday and ahead to their ranked foe on the weekend. The classic lookahead spot offers value in going against the bubble team in the game before a big season-defining showdown.

This week, Miami can tighten its hold on a spot in the NCAA field with a win at North Carolina Saturday. But before the Hurricanes head to Chapel Hill to face the Tar Heels, they host Florida State in Coral Gables Wednesday night. The Seminoles aren’t earning an at-large bid – and know it – but would love to spoil their ACC rivals' tourney chances.

Bubble teams can also be very susceptible to the letdown spot in their pursuit of a postseason place. Teams coming off a matchup with a ranked opponent – win or lose – run the risk of coming down off that high and playing flat in their next outing. Bubble teams losing to a ranked foe feel like their season is shot and teams coming off a win against a big-name opponent can be a false sense of accomplishment.

Some potential letdown spots this week include Texas A&M, facing ranked Arkansas Tuesday then hosting Auburn Saturday, and North Carolina State at ranked North Carolina Tuesday and then at Boston College Saturday.

Home/Away

Not that teams need much extra motivation when resting firm on the bubble in the closing games of the schedule, but having a healthy dose of hometown love never hurts.

Unlike in pro basketball, where home and away splits are a slight difference in the stats, college basketball teams can be completely different squads when taking their home court compared to playing in the role of visitor. And, more often than not, teams on the NCAA bubble are the ones who display that disparity in venue.

UCLA has been one of the more two-faced teams in the country when it comes to performance at home and away. The Bruins are just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road, averaging just 60.3 points per game away from home. But at home in Pauley Pavilion, UCLA is a contender with a 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS mark, scoring 80.5 points an outing – more than 20 points more than on the road. The Bruins can thank the Pac-12 schedule makers for lining up three straight home dates to close conference play, hosting Washington, Washington State and Southern Cal.

UCLA’s conference rival Oregon, another Pac-12 bubble team, has the exact opposite of that friendly slate and closes out the season with three straight road games while trying to impress the selection committee. The Ducks, who have only played six true road games (2-4 SU and ATS) on the year, visit Cal, Stanford and Oregon State with the window closing on their March Madness plans.

Experience

February is when a lot of teams hit the wall. Programs depending on freshmen to carry the team into the postseason could be playing with fire as first-year players aren’t used to the long grind of the college season, coupled with travel and school work.

That’s not to say freshmen won’t step up – that class is now always the most talented crop of players in the country (thanks to the NBA’s one-year rule) and AAU play keeps high school kids busy all year round. However, big-game experience and knowing what it takes to pull out wins against the odds is something that only comes from veteran programs.

Battling the bubble before is also something basketball bettors should consider. Were this year’s bubble teams in the same position in 2014, and how did they respond? A rotten taste from past Selection Sundays can often be motivation to not get left out again.

Purdue boasts one of the youngest teams in the country with a roster rich in freshmen and sophomores. The Boilermakers are among the most notable bubble teams in the mix right now, having won three straight and eight of their last 10 to inject themselves into the bracket conversion. But, with two freshmen in the starting lineup and two more logging steady minutes off the bench, Purdue could be asking a lot of these first-year talents in the final games of the year. The Boilermakers have a tough task with road games at ranked Ohio State and then at Michigan State (another Big Ten bubble team), then home to Illinois (yet another bubble team looking to get in).

As for a team battling the bubble for a second straight year, Boise State returned six seniors and three juniors from a program that burst its bubble with a 1-3 finish to MWC play last March. That tumble was especially heart breaking with the final two losses coming in overtime. The Broncos fought hard in the 2014 conference tournament too (3-0 ATS), eventually falling to Mountain West champ New Mexico by three points in the semifinals. But it was much too late to score any brownie points with the selection committee. Boise State has three of its final four games away from home, but has the experience and motivation not to let that opportunity slip away again.

Here are some notable bubble teams to watch the next two weeks: Pittsburgh, Miami, UCLA, Stanford, Colorado State, Dayton, Georgia, Tulsa, Oregon, Illinois, Purdue, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Boise State, NC State, Davidson, LSU, Cincinnati, BYU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Big-Ten Showdown'

Maryland (22-5, 9-14-1 ATS) hopes to better their positioning in the Big Ten when they host Wisconsin (25-2, 14-12-1 ATS) on Tuesday night. Terrapins, new to the conference have performed well by going 10-4 with a perfect 7-0 record inside the XFINITY Center hosting a conference rival. Trimble (16.1) leads three players in double digits helping Terps generate 70.8 PPG. Defensively, Maryland allows 64.3 PPG with opponents shooting 40.4% from the floor. However, cashing tickets in Big Ten play has been a chore, Terps are 5-9 ATS overall, 2-5 ATS on home court. For Badgers its been smooth sailing in the conference as they've posted a smart 13-1 record including 5-1 when away from Kohl Center. Badgers are the best defensive team in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country allowing just 55.4 PPG on 41.3% shooting. Badgers netting 72.3 PPG as a team are lead by Kaminsky (17.7) dropping a whopping 54.6% of his shots. Just like Terrapins, the Badgers have not been great bets in conference play going 5-8-1 ATS on the campaign, 3-3 ATS on the road. Maryland winning 16-of-17 on home court makes for a tempting proposition at 6 point underdog. But, you bet Terps at some risk vs Wisky's lock-down defense. Terps have failed to respond against the betting line scoring less than 70 points on home hardwood (1-8 ATS) and hit the hardwood 1-6 ATS L7 as a home underdogs netting under 70 points/game including a loss to Virginia this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Texas (-3) spanked West Virginia 77-50 at home Jan 17, going 31-37 on foul line while surviving 19 turnovers (-2) in game they led by 14 at half. Longhorns are 3-6 in last nine game, losing three of last four on road with losses by 3-23-2 points- they're 3-2 as road dogs. WVa won three of last four games, is 2-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 21-1-19-1-4 points, with losses to Iowa State/Baylor. Big X home favorites of 4 or less points are 11-9 vs spread.

Villanova (-4.5) won 74-68 at Providence 13 days ago, shooting 65% on 2-point shots. Wildcats won/covered their last eight games, are 6-1 as Big East home favorites, with all seven home wins by 12+ points. Friars are 3-4 as Big East underdogs, 3-3 on road, with all three road losses by nine points (4-3 SU). Wildcats won last three series games by 6-3-30 points,. after Providence swept them two years ago. Big East double digit faves are 9-8 vs spread, 7-7 at home.

Wisconsin won its last ten games despite losing its starting PG in its last loss; Badgers are 3-3 as road favorites, with four of five road wins by 8+ points- they held last five opponents under 56 points. Maryland won its last three games by total of nine points; they're 7-0 SU at home in league games, but were favored in all seven; three of their four conference losses were by 16+ points. Big 14 home dogs of 4+ points are 6-8 vs spread.

Central Michigan (-6) beat Eastern Michigan 65-51 Jan 24; Eagles shot 30.5% from floor in game they trailed by 13 at half. Chippewas won last six games, are 3-3 on MAC road, winning last two away games by 1-11 points. Eastern won three of last four games overall, five of last six home games-- their home losses are to Ball State/Buffalo. Central makes 54.3% of 2-point shots, best in league. MAC home teams are 14-19-2 in games with spread of 4 or less points.

Western Michigan (-9.5) beat Ball State 95-93 in triple OT Jan 14, game that started Cardinals on current 12-game losing skid- Ball led by 14 in second half. Ball lost last five home games, is 1-3 as home underdog, with four of five home losses by 9+ points. Broncos lost last four road games, are 2-4 as MAC favorites, 1-0 on road. Ball State covered only twice in its last eleven games. MAC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 3-9.

Akron (-3) beat Buffalo 75-72 at home Feb 7, making 10-24 on arc; Zips lost last three games overall by total of 10 points, are 2-2 as road dogs, losing on road by 17-3-1-3 points, with wins at Bowling Green/Western Michigan. Bulls won last two games by 15-12 points after three-game skid; Buffalo is 2-4 as home favorite, losing last two home games against Toledo, Central Michigan. MAC home favorites of 7+ points are 10-14-1 vs spread.

South Carolina (-4) nipped Alabama 68-66 at home Jan 13, after trailing 9-0 early on; Gamecocks had 13 offensive rebounds, are 3-7 since then-- they're 1-5 as road underdogs, with four of six road losses by 15+ points. Alabama is 3-5 in its last eight games; they're 2-3 as home favorites- they lost three of last four home games, with win vs doormat Missouri. SEC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-11 vs spread. Gamecocks can't shoot: 28.4% outside arc, 38.7% inside it.

Auburn lost last five home games, all by 7+ points; they're 1-4 as a home underdog, but they upset LSU 81-77 (+12) in Baton Rouge Feb 5, making 9-20 on arc. Auburn lost four of its five games since, giving up 88.8 ppg. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-19-1 vs spread. LSU is 3-4 in last seven games, losing two of last three on road; underdogs covered six of their seven SEC road games- LSU is 0-2 as road fave they've won four of seven SEC road games, but did lost two of last three on road. .

Syracuse lost three of last five games overall, three of last four on road, with losses by 13-11-6 points; they're 1-1 as road underdogs, but won last two games with Notre Dame. Irish won last three games by 2-13-17 points, are 2-2 as home favorites, with only two of six home wins by 9+ points. Notre Dame is making 39.1% from arc, #2 in ACC, which makes them tough foe for Syracuse zone defense. ACC home favorites of 8+ points are 13-18 vs spread.

North Carolina (-4) won 81-79 at NC State Jan 14, game they led by 10 after last TV timeout; Tar Heels lost four of last six games, are 1-5 as a home favorite, with three of five home wins by 10+, along with losses to Notre Dame/Virginia. Wolfpack won its last two games, covered four of last five; they allowed 56.3 ppg in last three games. State is 5-2 as ACC underdog, 5-0 if getting more than four points. ACC home favorites of 8+ points are 13-18 vs spread.

Arkansas won its last six games, four by 14+ points; Razorbacks are 3-4 as home favorites, with four of six home wins by 12+ points, and loss to Ole Miss. Texas A&M won its last three games, is 3-2 as road underdog; its only two road losses are by 21 at Alabama, 10 at Ole Miss. SEC home favorites of 7+ points are 11-21 vs spread. Home side won all three SEC series games; Aggies lost by 11 in last visit here, in '13. Arkansas forces turnovers 23.7% of time, best in SEC.

UNLV (-5) was down five with 0:52 left, but nipped Utah State 79-77 in OT at home Jan 24, despite going 9-28 from arc; Vaughn had 31 in that game, is out for year now. Rebels are 2-5 on road in conference, with all five losses by 6 or less points or in OT. Utah State won/covered last four games, is 8-1 vs spread in last nine, 4-0 as home favorites, with four of five wins in Logan by 12+ points. Mountain West home favorites of less than 5 points are 4-6-1.

Boise State (+5.5) won 69-59 at New Mexico Jan 18, making 11-26 from arc in game they trailed by 9 early on- Lobos were just 2-14 from the arc. Broncos won/covered nine of last ten games, covering last six home tilts, winning five of them by 9+ points. Mountain West home favorites of 8+ points are 17-10-1 vs spread. Lobos lost last six games (0-6 vs spread); they're 2-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 14-1-11-3-4 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

-- Louisville 52, Georgia Tech 51-- Cards were down 13 in second half.

-- St John's 58, Xavier 57-- Game of spurts; Red Storm won five of last six.

-- Kansas State 70, Kansas 63-- K-State has to do a better job of security after games, someone is going to get hurt with ridiculous court storming.

-- Did the Red Sox sign Yoan Moncada as a precursor to a Cole Hamels trade?

-- Did the Miami Heat lower ticket prices when Lebron James skipped town?

-- UCLA hired former Penn State DC Tom Bradley as defensive coordinator; these college coaches are nomads, many of them. Change jobs a lot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Tuesday
by Alan Matthews

Did you realize that Notre Dame has never won the NCAA Tournament? I would have thought maybe one of those Digger Phelps clubs had. In fact, the Irish haven’t even made the Final Four since 1978, the club’s only trip to the national semifinals. That was so long ago that there was still a third-place game then — Notre Dame lost it to Arkansas. This year’s Irish are off to their best 28-game start since the 1973-74 squad was 25-3. Yet they are +6000 long shots to win it all. Here’s a look at their game and two others that caught my eye on Tuesday.

No. 5 Wisconsin at No. 16 Maryland (+5)

This Big Ten matchup tips at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Badgers are still battling for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, with ESPN currently listing them as a No. 2 in the South. The Terps are a No. 4 in the East.

Wisconsin (25-2, 13-1), which has a three-game lead on Maryland, Michigan State and Purdue, can clinch at least a share of the Big Ten crown with a victory. UW hasn’t won a Big Ten regular-season title since 2007-08. It won a 10th straight game Saturday, 63-53 at home against Minnesota. Likely Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky had 21 points, and sophomore Brandon Koenig a career-high 17 points. This winning streak started when Koenig moved into the starting lineup after Treveon Jackson broke his foot. It’s the best Big Ten start in school history, and since 2002 only two other Big Ten teams have started 13-1 or better in conference play (Illinois was 14-0 in 2005 and Ohio State 13-1 in 2010). The 10-game conference winning streak is one shy of the school record. Maryland (22-5, 10-4) won its third straight and improved to 7-0 at home in Big Ten games with a 69-65 victory against Nebraska on Thursday. The Terps have one of the nation’s top freshmen in Melo Trimble, and he had 26 points, six rebounds and five assists against the Cornhuskers. The Terrapins have won their last three games by a combined of 11 points and are 8-0 in games decided by six points or fewer this season.

This is the only scheduled meeting of the season between the schools.

Key trends: Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its past five Tuesday games. The Terps are 1-4 ATS in their past five after a win. They are 1-7 ATS in their past eight overall.

Why take the underdog: Game of the year in College Park, and I believe Terps win outright.

Syracuse at No. 10 Notre Dame (-9)

This ACC matchup tips at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN3. Syracuse, of course, won’t be playing in the NCAA Tournament this season after self-imposing a postseason ban. That means no ACC Tournament, either. The Irish are currently projected as a No. 3 seed in the West.

The Orange (17-10, 8-6) have alternated losses and wins over the past seven games. They were beaten 65-61 at home by Pittsburgh on Saturday. Syracuse cut a nine-point deficit to one with less than a minute remaining but couldn’t quite come all the way back. Star center Rakeem Christmas had his 10th double-double of the season with 20 points and 12 rebounds. SU’s Michael Gbinije currently leads the ACC in 3-point shooting as he has made 49.2 percent of his 3-point attempts (32 of 65) in conference games. No SU player has ever led his conference in 3-point shooting. or the season, Gbinije is now 43-for-98 from 3-point range (43.8 percent) overall, which would be the fifth-highest 3-point percentage for a Syracuse player in a season. Notre Dame (24-4, 12-3) has won three straight as it tries to keep its slim hopes of the ACC regular-season title alive. The Irish won 87-70 at Boston College on Saturday. Star Jerian Grant had 10 points and 11 assists for the Irish, who shot 66 percent.

This is the only scheduled meeting of the season between the teams.

Key trends: The Orange have covered only two of their past 11 overall. They have covered one of their past eight vs. teams with a winning record. Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its past seven after a win. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Why take the favorite: Orange have lost three of their past four on the road.

New Mexico at Boise State (-9)

The latest-starting game on the schedule is 11 p.m. ET on ESPNU, and it’s a must-win for Boise State in Mountain West Conference action. The Broncos are currently listed among the “First Four Out” on ESPN’s Bracketology.

Boise State (20-7, 10-4) comes off perhaps its best effort of the season, a 78-46 blowout of Nevada on Saturday. James Webb III led the way with 22 points as BSU shot 56.6 percent and had 17 assists. The Broncos are 32-1 the last four seasons when having 15 or more assists. . Boise State also has held back-to-back league foes to less than 50 points for the second time this season. Nevada shot 36.5 percent (19-for-52). The Broncos have held five conference opponents to fewer than 50 points for the first time in school history. This is only the second time in school history that Boise has reached the 20-win mark three straight seasons. New Mexico (14-13, 6-9) has made the NCAA Tournament each of the past three seasons but that’s going to end barring a Mountain West Tournament title. The Lobos lost their sixth straight game on Saturday, 76-68 against UNLV. The 76 points were the most allowed by the UNM defense this season and the losing streak is the school’s longest since the 1970-71 season.

Boise State won 69-59 in New Mexico on Jan. 18 behind 31 points from star Derrick Marks. The Broncos went on an 11-2 run to close the game after Jordan Goodman’s two free throws pulled New Mexico within 58-57 with 3:16 left. Boise was 11-for-26 from long range, while UNM was just 2-for-14.

Key trends: UNM is 0-6 ATS in its past six games. Boise State is 10-1 ATS in its past 11. UNM is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Why take the favorite: UNM is not a good road team — or good team, period, right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Tuesday, February 24 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

It was interesting to watch the Miami Heat futures odds over the past few days. They got a major boost after Thursday’s trade for Phoenix point guard Goran Dragic but then changed dramatically, and not in a good way, with the news that star forward Chris Bosh would miss the rest of the season due to a blood clot in his lung. Would the Heat have still traded for Dragic had they known that beforehand? Hard to say. And will it affect Dragic’s choice of whether to re-sign there? Bosh is expected to be fine for next season. No Heat game on Tuesday but here’s a look at each matchup.

Warriors at Wizards (TBA)

The big question here is whether NBA MVP favorite Steph Curry plays. He sat out Sunday’s 104-98 loss at Indiana, which ended Golden State’s four-game winning streak. Curry sat because of soreness in his right ankle, but it’s not considered serious and he’s day-to-day. That was the first game Curry had missed this season. The Warriors had 38 first-quarter points against the Pacers but then just 60 the rest of the way. Golden State is in the midst of playing 10 of 11 games away from home. Washington lost its third straight on Sunday, 106-89 at Detroit as the team clearly misses the injured Bradley Beal. He’s out indefinitely. This is the first meeting of the season between the teams. The Warriors have won four straight in Washington and six of the past seven vs. the Wizards overall.

Key trends: The Warriors have failed to cover seven straight vs. the East. Washington hasn’t covered its past five vs. the West. The “over/under” has gone under in five straight Warriors games.

Early learn: Wait on Curry.

Cavaliers at Pistons (+8.5, 205)

Reggie Jackson made his Detroit debut Sunday in a 17-point home win over Washington. He was clearly pressing early, missing his first eight shots. But Jackson calmed down and finished with 17 points and five assists. Here’s one of the best statistics I have ever heard: Pistons center Andre Drummond scored his first points on a 15-foot jumper. That’s his fourth CAREER make outside of 10 feet. That’s amazing. Cleveland has blown out the Wizards and Knicks off the break, and we could see the debut of Kendrick Perkins in this one. He was traded to Utah last Thursday and then bought out. He chose Cleveland over the Clippers and Bulls. He won’t play a lot but adds some depth and bulk to combat big teams like Washington and Chicago in the playoffs. The Pistons and Cavs have split two meetings, each winning on the road.

Key trends: The Cavs are 1-6 ATS in their past seven Tuesday games. Detroit has covered five straight on Tuesday. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland’s past six games.

Early lean: Pistons and over.

Pacers at Thunder (-5.5, 204)

Oklahoma City will be without Kevin Durant another game and at least the rest of this week after he had another procedure done on his surgically-repaired foot. That has to worry the Thunder, no matter what they say publicly. Durant missed his 29th game of the season Sunday, a 119-94 win over the visiting Nuggets, after missing only 16 total in the first seven years of his career. If you have Russell Westbrook on your fantasy NBA team right now, good for you. He’s going to be a monster as long as Durant is sidelined. Westbrook had 21 points, 17 assists (career high) and eight rebounds against Denver. Westbrook is only the second player in NBA history to have at least 20 points, 15 assists and five rebounds in a game in which he played less than 30 minutes. Enes Kanter had 20 points and 12 boards in his second game with OKC after coming over from Utah. Indiana won its third straight Sunday by upsetting visiting Golden State 104-98. Rodney Stuckey played through a sprained ankle and finished with 30 points. The bench put up 61 points, the second straight game with that many.

Key trends: Indiana has covered four straight games. The Thunder have covered six straight. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

Early lean: Thunder and under.

Raptors at Mavericks (-4, 206)

Toronto’s four-game winning streak ended Saturday at Houston, 98-76. Kyle Lowry had an off night, going 2-for-13 for 11 points. The Raptors, who were in Philly on Monday, are 12-8 against the West this season. Dallas will be without forward Chandler Parsons for at least the next three games due to a sprain and bruise on his left ankle. He rolled it Friday in a win over Houston, but X-rays were negative. Parsons is averaging 15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. He sat out Sunday’s 92-81 home win over Charlotte, with Richard Jefferson taking his starting spot. Amare Stoudemire made his Dallas debut in that one and had 14 points in 11 minutes. Dallas won in Toronto 106-102 on Nov. 28 behind 30 points from Monta Ellis. Parsons had 16. That was the game in which DeMar DeRozan left with a groin strain, which caused him to miss several weeks.

Key trends: The Raptors are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 in the second of a back-to-back. The Mavs are 2-6 ATS in their past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in Dallas’ past seven against the East.

Early lean: Mavericks and over.