Tuesday 2/21/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

South Carolina at Florida
Play: South Carolina +9

Don't look now by the Gamecocks have covered 9 of the last 10 meetings here in Florida. South Carolina also beat Florida straight up the last two years. This team plays excellent defense allowing just 44.5% effective field goals and enters this game off back to back losses for the first time all season.

Florida enters this contest on an eight game winning streak and has Kentucky on deck. We only made this line 5.9 so plenty of value in taking the dog here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Buster Sports

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Winnipeg Jets +140

The Winnipeg Jets are visiting the ACC tonight and they are getting some nice plus money that we will gladly take. Winnipeg has owned the Leafs and beat them 5-4 in their only matchup of the season. In the last 9 matchups between the clubs the Jets are 8-1. The Leafs are just getting too much love form the oddsmaker tonight as the Jets have won 3 out of their last 4 games. The Leafs have lost 4 out of their last 6 games and with the dominance that the Jets have on the Leafs getting plus 140 at the time of this writing is just too much plus money to pass up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Rose

South Carolina vs. Florida
Play: South Carolina +10

If ever there was a time to buy into the Gamecocks, it’s now. Back-to-back losses to the Arkansas Razorbacks and Vanderbilt Commodores has them receiving 10 points against a Gators team it's already defeated on its own floor. This is still a team that sports the nation’s No. 29 ranked scoring defense as well as one of the best players in the Conference in Thornwell. With this likely their last shot to threaten both Florida and Kentucky for league honors, I expect the Cocks to come out balling on Super Tuesday. With the market place extremely down on Martin’s kids, it's fattened up the pointspread enough for me to consider the Gators inflated favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Shively

South Carolina vs. Florida
Pick: South Carolina

Florida is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have been dominant in the SEC. The oddsmaker has been forced to raise the lines on the Gators and tonight’s number is a bit too high facing a tough defensive minded team of South Carolina.

The Gamecocks are coming off 2 losses for the first time this season and I look for coach Frank Martin to have his team of upperclassmen ready to play. Florida and South Carolina rank #1 and #2 in defense in SEC. The Gators do have the more efficient offense over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks defensive play should be able to force Florida into some bad shots.

A week ago, UF lost its starting center — John Egbunu — to a torn ACL. He’s out for the season. It’ll take him 10 to 12 months to recover. That is a big loss for the team and can hurt them in this game. They now don’t have depth at the center position and I expect for their interior defense to regress. Also, their leading scorer Canyon Barry is listed as a game time decision after hurting his ankle and being held out of practice Sunday and Monday.

The last 3 meetings have been decided by 4 points each. Florida has a HUGE game against Kentucky on deck. The Gators are 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge before playing Kentucky. (South Carolina beat Florida earlier this year). South Carolina is 5-0 SU since 1/31/2015 when coming off 2 consecutive losses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Pick: Oklahoma +13

It was pretty much a given that after such a successful senior-led season last year, the Oklahoma Sooners were going to crash hard this year as they rebuild the talent, and experience. Not surprising, the Sooners are 9-1, as they head to take on Baylor. The Sooners may not have the won/lost record, but they have been a lot closer to the top of the conference than most think. The fact is that this entire conference is not separated by as much as it has been in the past from top to bottom. Big-12 Conference dogs this season of +8.5 or more are 20-3 ATS, and this Oklahoma team has been at the top of that list at 5-0 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Brayman

My Bonus Play for tonight is on No. 14 Purdue, in its Big 10 battle with Penn State.

This is a mismatch, even it being a road game, as the Boilermakers (22-5, 11-3 in the Big Ten) already rolled Penn State (14-13, 6-8 ) once this season, on Jan. 21, a 77-52 thrashing in West Lafayette, Ind.

Penn State is mired in a 3-6 slide since Jan. 14, and even though it has had a week off since an 82-66 loss last Tuesday at Nebraska, I don't think it'll make a bit of difference against a Purdue team that is poised to win at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season championship for the first time since 2010.

The Boilermakers are 8-1 since a Jan. 12 loss at Iowa, and are currently playing their best basketball of the season. Lay the chalk in this one.

3* PURDUE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Eric Schroeder

On the heels of hitting Creighton over Georgetown on Sunday, and Iowa State over Texas Tech on Monday, my free pick for tonight is on the Wichita State Shockers over the Evansville Purple Aces.

A 10-game win streak during conference play has Wichita State back in the Top 25, after more than a year of not being ranked.

Now it's time to prove they belong and deserve to stay there.

Tonight Wichita State (25-4, 15-1 MVC) plays its final regular-season home game, and the seniors will go out with a bang. Evansville (14-15, 5-11) lost to the Shockers 82-65 a month ago, and I expect nothing different in this one.

Wichita State is limiting opponents to just 62.2 points per game, the 11th-lowest total in the country, so look for that defense to stifle the Aces tonight.

1* WICHITA STATE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Wilton

Tuesday comp play is Georgia Tech over NC State.

Heck, the Little Sisters of the Poor could be playing State tonight, and I would back them!

The Wolf Pack have clearly thrown in the towel, and now it's just a matter of them playing out the string for lame-duck Mark Gottfried.

NC State has lost 7 in a row both straight up and against the spread. They are also 1-8 against the spread their last 9 road games. At 14-14 they are now in danger of not playing in the postseason at all, and it sure looks like the team is fine with that.

That is not the case for Josh Pastner's Yellow Jackets who notched a huge conference win and cover over the weekend when they dumped Syracuse in Atlanta.

Georgia Tech has protected their home court with a passion, as the Jackets have now won 6 straight - covering all 5 on line - at home, and they were also a 10-point road winner over NC State in the middle of January.

The Techsters believe they have a shot at making the Big Dance at-large field, and they know full well they cannot slip up tonight against this team.

Lay the points.

5* GEORGIA TECH

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oskeim Sports

Davidson at Richmond
Play: Richmond +2

Richmond is in its preferred role as an underdog tonight where the Spiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, including 4-1 ATS when getting 6.5-points or less. Richmond has covered five of its last seven games overall and my math model favors the Spiders by two points so we are getting excellent line value with the live home underdog. I like Richmond (+2) as my free sports pick for Tuesday, February 21.

Davidson possesses an offense that is 2.2 points per game better than average (74.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.8 points per game) and a defense that is 2.7 points per game better than average (70.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.1 points per game).

The Wildcats have lost three of their last five games over which time they are averaging just 68.2 points on 40.2% shooting from the field and 28.4% from beyond the arc. Davidson is averaging 29 three-pointers per game on the road this season, which plays into the strength of Richmond's defense.

The Spiders are limiting opponents to just 30.8% shooting from three-point territory overall and 30.5% on their home floor. Over its last five games, Richmond is holding opposing teams to just 29.3% shooting from beyond the arc. It's extremely unlikely that Davidson will beat the Spiders from beyond the arc in this game.

Richmond is 2.9 points per game better than average offensively and 0.7 points per game better than average defensively, but the Spiders' attack is making 46.4% of their field goal attempts over the last five games and 47.2% in conference play. The Spiders are also better from the free throw line at home (72.0%) and versus conference foes (71.8%).

The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a combined six points, and my math model suggests that the wrong team is favored in tonight's affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOHN MARTIN

St. John's vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -10½

The Marquette Golden Eagles need to keep winning if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They did a good job of that over the weekend in trouncing Xavier 83-61 as 6-point favorites. Now I think they'll post another blowout home victory over St. John's here Tuesday. The Red Storm lost 86-110 at Butler last time out and have lost five of their last six road games all by double-digits. I don't give them much of a chance of hanging with Marquette here tonight either.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRANDON LEE

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -1½

The Bulldogs are worth a look at home against the Rebels tonight. This is a big time revenge spot for Mississippi State, who was embarrassed in a 61-88 loss at Ole Miss back on Jan. 31. The change in venue isn't the only reason I think the Bulldogs can knock off the Rebels this time around. That was their first game without point guard I.J. Ready and that's a tough thing to overcome on the road. Since that loss the Bulldogs have gone just 1-4 in their last 5, but have been extremely competitive in all 4 losses, losing by just 7 @ Auburn, 4 at home to South Carolina, 7 @ Georgia and 5 at home against Florida. Ready is back in the lineup and will be playing his 3rd straight after missing the previous 4. Mississippi State is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 off a conference loss, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a road loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last 2 as an underdog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE PRICE

Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1½

The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are on the verge of making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in the program's history. They need wins like this one at Illinois to get there. They certainly won't be lacking any motivation as they just lost at home to Illinois 61-68 on February 7th two weeks ago. But now the Wildcats have a healthy Scottie Lindsey back in the lineup after he missed four games due to injury, including that Illinois game. Lindsey leads the team in scoring at 15.0 points per game, so it's no surprise they went just 1-3 without him. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Illinois is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BLACK WIDOW

NC State vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -3

Bets against road teams (NC State) an explosive offensive team scoring at least 78 points per game against an average offensive team scoring 67-74 PPG, after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at halftime are 31-8 ATS since 1997. This situation's record is 4-1 this season alone. NC State is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall and has little to play for at this point unlike Georgia Tech, which is seeking to make the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets have covered six straight home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Kent St +7 over BUFFALO

With a 9-5 conference record, the Buffalo Bulls are a near lock to finish as a top four team in the Mid-Atlantic Conference. That's important because the MAC is a one-bid league, so only one team is guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The top four seeds in the conference tournament get a first round bye. A team only has to win three games instead of four to make the main event so it's a much easier road to the MAC title and the at-large bid. The Bulls have played their way into the top four on the backs of a six-game winning streak. It's been an impressive run, but there's not a lot of work left for them in the regular season, aside from a home date with first place Akron on Saturday. That’s a big game for Buffalo and at the very least, it has to be in the back of their minds or take away some focus from this game. With seven straight wins over Kent State, it might be easy for the Bulls to overlook the Golden Flashes in this spot tonight and that would be a big mistake.

Kent State got a big signature win over the MAC's number one team in Akron last Friday night. That win by K-State snapped the Zips 30-game home winning streak. The Golden Flashes are 7-7 in MAC play and are a game back of Ball State for the final first round bye. When these two teams played in Kent just over a month ago, the Golden Flashes lost by double digits as a three-point home favorite. Now, K-State is getting 7-points on the road against the hottest team in the conference but that 10-point swing in the number is what stands out. Every year there are some surprises in the conference tournaments. Last year for instance, it was Holy Cross that took a below average regular season and turned it into an at-large bid by winning the conference tournament. Kent State is one of those dangerous teams that can do the same. They are a rebounding machine (top-5 in the entire country), which means second chance points are available and that makes them dangerous. Remember, the odds makers gave this visitor a ton of respect when they made them a 3-point choice over the Bulls a month ago. The Flashes are also peaking at the right time and they’ll take a ton of momentum and confidence into this game against what could possibly be a disinterested host. Upset alert is on.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Islanders -105 over DETROIT

OT included. This is an almost identical play to a couple of other plays we made (and won) on Sunday when Chicago defeated Buffalo, 5-1 and Nashville defeated Columbus. The Sabres were coming off three wins in a row, which was capped off by a big win over the then red-hot Blues on Saturday afternoon. Buffalo’s game against Chicago was sandwiched between that aforementioned big win over the Blues and its bye week. The Jackets’ game against Nashville was sandwiched between their big win over Pittsburgh on Friday and their bye week, which started on Monday. Now Detroit finds itself in the exact same scenario.

Detroit is coming off a huge weekend in which they defeated both Washington and Pittsburgh in back-to-back nationally televised games. The Red Wings were taking back +160 against the Capitals and +239 in Pittsburgh so they were not expected to win either one, let alone both. The Red Wings will now play this game basking in their glory with a their bye week on deck starting tomorrow. This really sets up as a difficult spot for the Red Wings, especially considering that they’re one of the easier teams in the NHL to beat. We also love that these two have played twice already this year with Detroit winning both times by a single goal. In a very difficult scheduling spot, the Red Wings are now being asked to defeat the superior team three times in a row in the same season and that is not likely going to happen. If you decide to make just one bet today, this should be it.

Chicago +146 over MINNESOTA

OT included. While we take nothing away from what the Wild have accomplished this year under Bruce Boudreau, they are not as good as their record indicates so they may be worth fading down the stretch in some spots or in the playoffs because they are very unlikely to maintain their dominance. Truth be told, the Wild have not dominated anything other than the scoreboard. They do not dominate puck possession and they create an average number of scoring chances but they’ve been able to score on a high number of them while allowing few. Minnesota’s goal differential is a ridiculous +62 so they have ridden the hot hand of goaltender Devan Dubnyk to an outstanding regular season record and their stock is soaring because of it.

There is a metric called Adjusted Corsi For %, which, unlike Corsi For % takes into consideration situations. For instance, was the team up three goals and protecting the lead or were they down a goal or two heading to the third period? All shots that are directed towards the net are not created equal and Adjusted Corsi For % takes all of that into consideration. In Corsi for (adjusted score) the Wild are ranked 19th in the league which puts them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Jets and Senators. There are a slew of stats and numbers one can go over in any sport to find cracks in but the point is that the Wild are NOT dominating games. They are just getting luckier in those 50/50 tossup games that most teams play .500 in.

Chicago taking back a price like this is almost always worth looking at. The Blackhawks are a team that every other team in the West wants to desperately avoid playing in Round 1. The Blackhawks have won six straight games away from the United Center. They've scored the game's first goal in four of those wins, and in the other two, overcame 1-0 deficits to beat Dallas 5-3 and Edmonton 5-1. Jonathan Toews is playing like an All-Star again and so are several other players. This isn’t the Blackhawks first rodeo. They’ve been through this regular season grind before and won three Stanley Cups in the process. From Coach Joel Quenneville to Patrick Kane, to Duncan Keith, to Marion Hossa and Keith Seabrook to goaltender Corey Crawford, this is a team that is quite aware of when the right time to peak is. Chicago appears to be shifting into gear and now would be the perfect opportunity for them to send these West rivals a little reminder of who they have to go through to reach the Promised Land. Chicago is too good to refuse a price like this in a big game like this.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Zack Cimini

Akron vs. Bowling Green
Pick: Akron

Out in the MAC, there is value to be had on Akron. Their favored number is right at the points margin in which they defeated Bowling Green at home. While Bowling Green likely will be motivated again here, I don't expect them to be able to score at the same pace as game one. Grab Akron to re-stabilize as they enter tonight's game coming off their second loss in five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Tuesday’s games

Rangers lost four of last five games with Montreal; last three series games went over the total. Canadiens won 1-0/5-1 in last two visits to Manhattan. Montreal lost three in row, seven of last eight games; they lost four of last five on road. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Rangers won five in row at home, six of last seven overall; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Penguins won their last five games with Carolina, winning 2-1/7-1 in last two visits to Raleigh. Under is 5-3-2 in last ten series games. Pittsburgh is 3-4 in its last seven games, losing last two road games, both in OT. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Carolina lost its last four games, outscored 16-3; they’re 2-3 in last five home games. Hurricanes’ last three home games stayed under the total.

Devils won four of their last six games with Ottawa; seven of last nine series games went under the total. Senators lost three of last five games in the Garden State. Ottawa won four of last six games overall, three of last four on road. Five of their last six games stayed under the total. New Jersey is 4-0 in game following its last four losses; they’re 3-4 in last seven home games. Over is 5-2-3 in their last ten games.

Islanders lost four of last five games with Detroit; they were outscored 14-6 in losing last three games in the Motor City. Five of last six series games went over total. New York was outscored 13-3 in losing its last three road games; they’re 5-3 in last eight games overall. Red Wings won last two games overall but are 2-3 in last five home games. Detroit’s last three home games stayed under.

Winnipeg won eight of its last nine games with the Maple Leafs, winning three of last four visits to Toronto. Last nine series games went over total. Jets won three of last four games overall; they’re 4-2 in their last six road games. Seven of their last ten games went over, but last two stayed under. Toronto lost four of last six games, three of last four at home. Three of their last four games went over.

Home side won eight of last nine Edmonton-Tampa Bay games; Oilers were outscored 16-10 in losing last four games in this building. Four of last five series games stayed under. Edmonton won its last three games overall and four of last six on the road. Lightning won four of their last six games; four of those six went OT. Tampa Bay won 5-0/3-2 in last two home games. Under is 3-1-2 in their last six games.

Road team won six of last eight Calgary-Nashville games; Flames won last three visits to Music City, with two of those three in OT/SO. Three of last four series games stayed under. Calgary is 2-3 in its last five games, 3-4 in last seven road games, but 3-0 in game following their last three losses. Predators are 3-4 in last seven games but 4-2 in last six home games. Last six Nashville games went over.

Minnesota won six of its last seven games with Chicago; Blackhawks lost three of last four visits to Twin Cities. Over is 4-1-3 in last eight series games. Chicago won its last six road games; they are 6-1 in last seven games overall. Eight of their last ten games went over. Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight games, 4-2 in their last six at home. Seven of their last ten games went over.

Kings lost three of last four games with Colorado; they lost 4-1/4-1 in last two visits to Denver. Under is 3-1-2 in last six series games. Los Angeles lost three in row, five of last six games; they scored total of five goals in the five losses- they got shut out in three of last four road games. Under is 3-1-3 in their last seven road games. Colorado lost six of last seven games, losing last two home games, 4-1/3-2. Under is 2-0-2 in their last four games.