Tuesday 2/10/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACK JONES

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Phoenix Suns -2

The Phoenix Suns are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight. The Suns come in as the more motivated team for a couple of different reasons, and I believe that motivation will push them over the top.

First, the Suns have lost four of their last five games coming in. Three of the losses came to three of the best teams in the West in Golden State, Memphis and Portland. This rough patch not only has them motivated to get back on track, but it also has them undervalued as well.

Secondly, Phoenix wants revenge on Houston. It has suffered gut-wrenching loss after gut-wrenching loss against the Rockets in recent meetings. Indeed, the Rockets have won each of their last three meetings with the Suns by 5 points or less and by 10 combined points total. That includes a 5-point loss in Houston and a 2-point loss in Phoenix this season alone. Revenge will be on the minds of these Suns' players.

The Rockets remain without Dwight Howard, so they won't have the usual huge advantage in the paint that they normally do when playing the Suns. That will turn this game into more of a track meet, which plays into the Suns' hands. They score 106.8 points per game at home this season and are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS loss. Phoenix is 50-30 ATS in its last 80 games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Bet the Suns Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MIKE LUNDIN

Anaheim Ducks-117

The Ducks are looking to bounce back after suffering consecutive losses, the most recent a 5-3 defeat against the Lightning two days ago. They're 12-2 in their last 14 games playing on one day of rest though, and tonight's opposition is of way lesser quality as they're coming to Florida to face off with the Panthers. The hosts have split the first two of a three game home-stand, coming off a 3-2 SO loss against the Predators. They've won only two of their last nine at home, and could be in for a tough game here as Anaheim will be eager to revenge a 6-2 home loss earlier in the season.
Florida's penalty kill has performed well below par of late, going a lowly 9-for-15 over their its last five game. Combine that with a red hot Ducks power play scoring in four of their last five games and I would say special teams advantage the Ducks.
Fredrik Andersen is likely to sit out after the goal cage fell on him Sunday. Ilya Bryzgalov who is 5-2-2 with a 1.83 GAA lifetime against tonight's opposition is ready to fill in, and the Panthers goaltending situation is not ideal either with their star netminder Roberto Luongo posting a 3.20 GAA over his last ten appearances, booking only two wins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Nebraska +9.5

This is a great spot to go against the Badgers as a big road favorite against a pesky Nebraska team. Wisconsin comes in having won 6 straight with each of their last 3 victories coming by double-digits, plus they already won at home over the Cornhuskers by 15-points earlier in conference play. With a comfortable 3-game lead in the Big 10 standings, I look for the Badgers to come out a big flat here and allow Nebraska to keep it close.
While the Cornhuskers come in off a 43-56 loss at Penn State and have dropped 3 of 4 overall, all three of those losses have come on the road. Nebraska is a strong 5-1 at home in the Big Ten, with their only loss coming by 5-points to Michigan. The Cornhuskers upset Wisconsin 77-68 as a 3-point underdog last year and lost by just 6-points at home as a 9-point dog in 2013.
Nebraska is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home when listed as an underdog. The Cornhuskers are also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of 4 and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games into the season.
Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a road loss by 10 or more points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning record are 103-56 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Cornhuskers. Take Nebraska!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ARI ATARI
NBA | Feb 10, 2015
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Over 202

Both teams are geared up for an offensive onslaught of points with the defense slacking on a regular basis and even more so as the break approaches.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY ADAMS

Notre Dame-3

There’s one big difference between these two teams. Notre Dame has one of the best scoring offenses in the nation whereas Clemson struggles to score on a consistent basis. That means that the Tigers will have to rely on their defense to win this game. Good Luck against a team that shoots over 40% from 3.
We’ve talked in the past about how Notre Dame has one of the most efficient offenses. They take good care of the ball, have a solid assist/turnover ratio, and can put points up at a very fast clip. Jerian Grant is the leader for the Irish and he’s become a real star. His ability to penetrate into the lane and either finish, or dish it out to the open man is what makes this offense run. They average 80 points per game and with a spread this low, it’s hard for me to see a way that the Tigers will be able to keep up.
Clemson averages 62.3 points and they shoot under 30% from long range. As mentioned, they are a good defensive unit, allowing 59 points or less in 7 straight games. However, keeping Notre Dame under 60 is somewhat wishful thinking. The home crowd no doubt has a lot to do with this point spread but the Irish will be able to cover rather easily tonight. Take Notre Dame.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOSEPH D'AMICO

Play LSU (Game 526).

No arguments...Kentucky is a phenomenal team. But the Wildcats can be overvalued. They have failed to over their L4 and are just 3-10 ATS in Conference play this season. At 17-6, LSU is no pushover. They have covered 4 of their L5 in this series and boast a front line that can slow down the big men of UK. This is a squad that posts 74.6 PPG and can rebound with any team in the country. Forward's, Mickey and Martin (33 PPG and 20 RPG combined) will contest their counterparts here on "D" and score on offense. I feel that giving the Tigers DD's is a big mistake. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played vs. the SEC and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take LSU. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Kansas

Yes I will lay points on the road, and the reason why is KU imploded at Okie State on Saturday and on the other side of the coin, Texas Tech imploded also on the road at Iowa State who humiliated the Red Raiders by a score of 75-38 in one of the worst butt kicking’s I have seen in recent memory in college hoops. You have to back Kansas here who blew an 11 point halftime lead against Okie State and then proceeded to not show up in the second half, and you know practice has not been fun with Bill Self in repair mode.
Kansas simply has too much talent, depth and firepower for Texas Tech to handle. One always has to wonder what a college teams motivation is day in and day out, and it always affects the ATS outcome when laying points, but Kansas who has already beaten Texas Tech by 32 points back in January, will have their ears pinned back off a loss and be dialed in here. Texas Tech has scored 54 ppg op offense and allowed 70 on defense their last 5 games, a recipe for disaster tonight. That will not get it done against a Kansas team hell bent of redeeming themselves on the road in the Big 12 off a rare loss, where in conference action they have managed to cover 8 out of their last 12 games, and they are 27-12-2 ATS in Big 12 Play their last 41. Texas Tech on the other hand has only covered 4 times in their last 17 attempts in the Big 12. Always tentative to lay double digits on the road, but Tech is in big trouble here.
Kansas -11.5 – Lay the Wood

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JESSE SCHULE

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are banged up, and they're coming off a home loss to Indiana. Even with PG Kemba Walker sidelined with a knee injury, they've won six of nine without him. Sunday's loss to the Pacers was a tough one, playing their second game in as many nights, Charlotte dominated the game through the first three quarters, but couldn't close it out.
The Detroit Pistons are in town tonight, and they are also without their starting PG. Detroit though hasn't been as successful since Brandon Jennings went down, losing 5-of-8. They've lost all four of their road games without Jennings, and one of those losses came to the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.
Al Jefferson has been carrying the Hornets lately, and he's had some big games against the Pistons. Jefferson has averaged 28.3 points and 11.3 rebounds, helping the Hornets sweep the season series last year.
Take CHA.
GL,
Jesse Schule

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is the suddenly surging Drexel Dragons to take down the Towson Tigers tonight in Philadelphia.

The Dragons have already bested the Tigers once this year, a 55-41 win on Towson's home floor in early January, and right now Drexel is soaring with 5 straight wins and covers - the last pair coming on the Colonial road.

Towson has been on the wrong side of the won/loss ledger in 7 of their last 10 (includes that home loss to Drexel), and after 4 straight series wins over the Dragons, it sure looks like the Tigers will get swept in the 2 regular season contests this year.

Take Drexel as the home favorite.

5* DREXEL

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHRIS JORDAN

The Hoyas come into this one catching a single point at Seton Hall, and I get it - they've been a big sketchy of late. But something tells me - a hunch, you may say - that this is the right spot for Georgetown to step up. I'm not ready to make the Hoyas a premier play, and would much rather play them as a freebie, but I do think this is a good spot for them to get the money.

The Hoyas rank No. 21 in the country in the current RPI Ratings and are currently No. 2 in the nation by strength of schedule.

They've simply been caught by the wrong teams at the wrong time, including Saturday's loss at Villanova, where they fell beind early and couldn't overcome the defict.

The Pirates won both games between the teams last season, so this is double-revenge for the Hoyas, who have won seven of the last 11 games overall and has a 7-4 record against Seton Hall under Head Coach John Thompson III.

Take a shot with the Hoyas here, as this may be their time to rebound.

2* GEORGETOWN

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CRAIG DAVIS

Your Bonus Play of the day is the Northwestern Wildcats plus the points at home over the Michigan State Spartans. As I write this, the 'Cats are catching three possessions at home (7 points) and that's simply too many in my opinion.

Raise your hand if you are at least mildly disappointed in the Spartans play to date. Unless they catch fire from behind the arc, they are a very average basketball team for Big 10 standards, and it's starting to catch up with them.

Everything in the world points against the Wildcats in this game, including the fact the Spartans and Tom Izzo are 31-4 against Northwestern and have won 21 of the last 23 meetings. Not only that, but Northwestern can't seem to get out of their own way.

But if they'll have one advantage tonight it's the fact that they're playing at home where although they aren't winning a lot, they are competing and keeping games close.

Other than Wisconsin, the Cats have played everyone else at home to within eight points and I see no reason why they can't do it again tonight.

Take Northwestern plus the points as your top play of the day.

3* NORTHWESTERN

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GABRIEL DUPONT

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+1)

The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Mississippi State - Believe it or not, when it comes to college hoops, this is one of the SEC's oldest rivalries, and Mississippi State leads the Tide, 56-36, when hosting. Though Alabama has the better overall record, they're both 4-6 in conference play, and 'Bama hasn't been all that good on the road.

The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Alabama - The Tide are 1-6 when traveling this season, with a 1-1 mark on neutral courts - which means 2-7 away from Tuscaloosa. And because of this rivalry, I do think Mississippi State's home crowd could wreak havoc on the guests.

Why MISSISSIPPI STATE is my Bonus Play in this game - The Bulldogs suffered a 61-41 setback at Arkansas on Saturday, so they'll be out to avenge the loss and get right back on track, while gaining a one-game edge on Alabama. The Tide, meanwhile, fell 71-60 at LSU on Saturday and will be hard pressed to come right back for a road game in a tough place to play. MSU has won six of the last 10 meetings at the Hump, and my money says the small home pup wins tonight.

4* MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT DELANEY

My freebie for Tuesday is on Xavier minus a cheap number against Marquette.

I love this Big East clash, as I've been cherry picking the right times to play against Marquette this season, and I think this is one of those times.

The Golden Eagles are at the bottom of the standings, sitting second-to-last with a 3-8 mark in league play, while Xavier is smack dab in the middle of the Big East with a 6-6 mark. But more glaring is the fact the Musketeers are 15-9 overall, while Marquette is 11-12 this season.

Though this one is in Milwaukee, I don't think the Eagles will have anyone to slow Dee Davis, who ranks second in the Big East and 10th in the nation in assists with 6.3 per game. He has 42 assists and six turnovers in his last five games.

Davis' emergence could be a big reason Xavier leads the Big East in offense (77.2 ppg.), assists (17.2), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.49) and FG percentage (.487).

Lay the road chalk in this one, as the Musketeers get this one done.

2* XAVIER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Anthony Sports

Tuesday's Free Selection: Northwestern Wildcats + 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Tuesday Selection
Akron -6½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawkeye Sports

Your free selection for Tuesday is:

Temple -2.5 over Cincinnati (7:30et)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Kenny Towers

LSU+10.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Book Edge
Kevin 'Bubba' Smith
Edmonton Oilers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Akmens Sports

Northwestern

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Priority Sports Info
Roy Maddux
Memphis Grizzlies