Brandon Shively
Army vs North Texas
1* Bonus Play Army
It’s rare when you have a College Bowl game being a rematch from earlier in the year. Well, that’s what we have here and I like Army to get their revenge from losing to North Texas 35-18 earlier this year. Did North Texas outplay Army? No, Army just had a bad game. The weather conditions were bad and they had 7 turnovers! Yes, 7 turnovers, is the reason they lost that game.
After beating Navy, which was HUGE for the school and making their first bowl appearance since 2010, I feel Army will be super motivated for this game and adding fuel to their motivation is revenge from that loss.
There are several key statistical edges in our favor. Army ranks 4th in the nation in total defense at only 281 yards a game. They rank 17th against the run at only 124 yards a game and 4 yards a carry. They held Navy to only 201 total yards. It’s a wonder North Texas made it to a bowl game. They rank 118th in total offense and 116th in yards per play. Army ranks 64th in yards per play at 5.81. The North Texas defense gives up 6 yards a play, 87th in the nation. They give up 5.1 yards a carry and 219 yards a game on the ground. That is very bad news against an Army team that goes for 5.5 yards every time they run the ball and convert 46.5% of their 3rd downs on the season. In Army’s wins this year, they have converted 59.7% on 3rd downs. I am betting Army to win this game obviously and to keep those chains moving. In their wins, they have converted 18 of 20 times in the red zone for scores, 16 for touchdowns.
Army only allows a 37% conversion rate on 3rd downs. Really, Army had a two game stretch against Air Force and Notre Dame where they played bad. Other than that, they have outgained all of their other opponents.
North Texas got outgained by 251 yards their last game of the season and gave up 384 rushing yards to UTEP. Even teams not known for running the ball run all over North Texas. I think this game will be one-sided. Army has allowed only 38 points in the 4th quarter this year. North Texas isn’t built for coming from behind.
North Texas QB Mason Fine has been nursing a shoulder injury. It sounds like he can and will probably play, but not be 100% If he is, then he will still be rusty. “I wouldn’t anticipate him starting, because he hasn’t practiced”, coach Littrell said. The other QB is Alec Morris who has completed only 53% of his passes this season with a 6 TD/ 6 INT mark. North Texas is supposed to have their starting running back close to 100%, but he won’t be effective if North Texas is playing from behind. Taking Army here for a 1* Pick.
Army vs North Texas
1* Bonus Play Army
It’s rare when you have a College Bowl game being a rematch from earlier in the year. Well, that’s what we have here and I like Army to get their revenge from losing to North Texas 35-18 earlier this year. Did North Texas outplay Army? No, Army just had a bad game. The weather conditions were bad and they had 7 turnovers! Yes, 7 turnovers, is the reason they lost that game.
After beating Navy, which was HUGE for the school and making their first bowl appearance since 2010, I feel Army will be super motivated for this game and adding fuel to their motivation is revenge from that loss.
There are several key statistical edges in our favor. Army ranks 4th in the nation in total defense at only 281 yards a game. They rank 17th against the run at only 124 yards a game and 4 yards a carry. They held Navy to only 201 total yards. It’s a wonder North Texas made it to a bowl game. They rank 118th in total offense and 116th in yards per play. Army ranks 64th in yards per play at 5.81. The North Texas defense gives up 6 yards a play, 87th in the nation. They give up 5.1 yards a carry and 219 yards a game on the ground. That is very bad news against an Army team that goes for 5.5 yards every time they run the ball and convert 46.5% of their 3rd downs on the season. In Army’s wins this year, they have converted 59.7% on 3rd downs. I am betting Army to win this game obviously and to keep those chains moving. In their wins, they have converted 18 of 20 times in the red zone for scores, 16 for touchdowns.
Army only allows a 37% conversion rate on 3rd downs. Really, Army had a two game stretch against Air Force and Notre Dame where they played bad. Other than that, they have outgained all of their other opponents.
North Texas got outgained by 251 yards their last game of the season and gave up 384 rushing yards to UTEP. Even teams not known for running the ball run all over North Texas. I think this game will be one-sided. Army has allowed only 38 points in the 4th quarter this year. North Texas isn’t built for coming from behind.
North Texas QB Mason Fine has been nursing a shoulder injury. It sounds like he can and will probably play, but not be 100% If he is, then he will still be rusty. “I wouldn’t anticipate him starting, because he hasn’t practiced”, coach Littrell said. The other QB is Alec Morris who has completed only 53% of his passes this season with a 6 TD/ 6 INT mark. North Texas is supposed to have their starting running back close to 100%, but he won’t be effective if North Texas is playing from behind. Taking Army here for a 1* Pick.
BRETT ATKINS
These teams met on October 22nd, and they combined for 53 points and the Over in a game that had a posted total of 48 points.
Similar total today in this bowl game, but I see a different end result, as I like the Under to be the way to go.
Army played 4 of their final 5 after their loss to North Texas Under the total, and for the season 8 of the 12 Black Knights games did stay Under the total.
North Texas played 3 of their 5 games after the Army meeting Under the total, and for the season the Mean Green played 7 their 12 games Under the posted price.
Listen, the linesmakers are not stupid, they know full well where the number should be in this game, so expect it to be a little bit of a sweat, but in the end North Texas and Army hold just Under the posted price.
2* ARMY-NORTH TEXAS UNDER
These teams met on October 22nd, and they combined for 53 points and the Over in a game that had a posted total of 48 points.
Similar total today in this bowl game, but I see a different end result, as I like the Under to be the way to go.
Army played 4 of their final 5 after their loss to North Texas Under the total, and for the season 8 of the 12 Black Knights games did stay Under the total.
North Texas played 3 of their 5 games after the Army meeting Under the total, and for the season the Mean Green played 7 their 12 games Under the posted price.
Listen, the linesmakers are not stupid, they know full well where the number should be in this game, so expect it to be a little bit of a sweat, but in the end North Texas and Army hold just Under the posted price.
2* ARMY-NORTH TEXAS UNDER
BRAD WILTON
After breaking 6-0 to start the season, the Baylor Bears fell down hard, and never could get back up, as they dropped their last 6 games on the year - covering only once in that stretch!
Now Baylor has the pleasure of tangling with a Boise State team that just loves this time of the year. The Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 bowl games, and 7 of their last 10 over this past decade, and they have covered both under Bryan Harsin the past 2 years. In fact, State has covered in 6 of their last 8 bowl games, and they are 8-3-1 against the spread their last 12 away from the blue carpet of Boise.
The Bears did hire Matt Rhule away from Temple to take over next season in Waco, and I suspect Rhule will do a solid job, as he did turn Temple into a rock-solid program in his tenure in Philly. But that is for next season. Today the Bears will have to take their lumps, and remember that 4 of their last 6 losses on the year were by double-digits.
No stretch here in thinking we will see another double-digit blowout.
Boise's bowl success continues in 2016. Lay the lumber!
4* BOISE STATE
After breaking 6-0 to start the season, the Baylor Bears fell down hard, and never could get back up, as they dropped their last 6 games on the year - covering only once in that stretch!
Now Baylor has the pleasure of tangling with a Boise State team that just loves this time of the year. The Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 bowl games, and 7 of their last 10 over this past decade, and they have covered both under Bryan Harsin the past 2 years. In fact, State has covered in 6 of their last 8 bowl games, and they are 8-3-1 against the spread their last 12 away from the blue carpet of Boise.
The Bears did hire Matt Rhule away from Temple to take over next season in Waco, and I suspect Rhule will do a solid job, as he did turn Temple into a rock-solid program in his tenure in Philly. But that is for next season. Today the Bears will have to take their lumps, and remember that 4 of their last 6 losses on the year were by double-digits.
No stretch here in thinking we will see another double-digit blowout.
Boise's bowl success continues in 2016. Lay the lumber!
4* BOISE STATE
