Tuesday 12/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#4 SANTA NELLA (ML=3/1)
#1 ANGELNAULE (ML=7/2)


SANTA NELLA - When Stevens and Kruljac unite on horses the return on investment has been great at +168. The Nov 18th race at Del Mar was at a class level of (82). Dropping to a lower class level considerably, so she should be in a good position to win. ANGELNAULE - Ran in the last race against a high class rated field at Turf Paradise. The move down in class should suit her well. Utilizing this jockey/trainer combination is a smart move. This animal has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is just want you want for a winner today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CORRELATION (ML=8/5), #7 SWEETNORTHERN ROSE (ML=4/1), #2 EMMA'S JOY (ML=6/1),

CORRELATION - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of outings. SWEETNORTHERN ROSE - Doesn't seem to be in a comfortable situation this time. EMMA'S JOY - This stretch-runner looks to have slight chance without an early speed duel at the front. Unlikely that the speed fig she earned on Dec 5th will hold up in this affair.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ANGELNAULE - Last affair was on the turf at Turf Paradise. Switching to a dirt race at 6 1/2 furlongs today. I like this play with maidens.
*

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 SANTA NELLA is the play if we get odds of 6/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 CANARYINACOALMINE (ML=6/1)
#6 NOCTURNAL Q (ML=8/1)
#1 MISS BORREGO (ML=8/1)


CANARYINACOALMINE - Aboard this thoroughbred on Nov 29th and Yaranga is right back in the irons this time. Took a significant drop in class rating last out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Returning to a similar class in today's race. I'd calculate a good performance. NOCTURNAL Q - Nice return on investment for this jockey and conditioner tandem. Finished out of the money last out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think she's got a chance. MISS BORREGO - You probably want to throw out that last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour on a track listed as good where she finished out of the money. Should do well today with the benefit of a fast track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CINDER TYME (ML=6/5), #7 CHARIOT CHAR (ML=9/2), #9 MOON BABY (ML=8/1),

CINDER TYME - This morning-line favorite ran on November 12th and hasn't had a workout after that. CHARIOT CHAR - Should be difficult for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list. MOON BABY - 8/1 is just too low of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings. Finished fifth in her most recent race with a common speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #4 CANARYINACOALMINE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Spot Plays

For Tuesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Mahoning Valley (2nd) Nikispring, 9-2
(5th) Red Velvet Lady, 10-1


Parx Racing (1st) Feisty Valentina, 8-1
(5th) Sweet Maggie Mae, 6-1


Sunland Park (4th) R C Dillinger, 3-1
(7th) Secret Heat R F, 7-2


Turf Paradise (3rd) Del Rio Harbor, 5-1
(6th) Brock Baby, 9-2
 
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Tuesday’s List of 13: Odds to win the college basketball national title:

3-1: Duke, Kentucky

5-1: UCLA

7-1: North Carolina, Kansas

8-1: Villanova

12-1: Baylor

15-1: Louisville-Indiana-Gonzaga

Nine things that have to happen for Tampa Bay to make the NFL playoffs

— Chiefs beat Denver— DONE

— Cowboys beat Detroit- DONE

— Buccaneers beat Carolina

— Lions over Green Bay

— Giants tie Washington

— Cowboys over Philadelphia

— 49ers over Seattle

— Titans over Houston

— Colts over Jacksonville
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Tuesday, December 27, 2016, Free Pick

(501) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (502) BOSTON CELTICS.

Take: (502) BOSTON CELTICS
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Tuesday, December 27, 2016

(501) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (502) BOSTON CELTICS.

Take: Under the total
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Tuesday, December 27, 2016

(503) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (504) MIAMI HEAT

Take: OVER

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, December 27, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat. OKC playing well, despite losing Kevin Durant in the offseason to Golden State. The Thunder are 19-12 and have won three straight. Russell Westbrook leads the team in scoring with 31.7 ppg. The Thunder are the 9th highest scoring team in the NBA with a 107.0 ppg average. The Thunder have been an excellent over team, especially on the road where they are 13-6 O/U their last 19. The Heat are also a good over team of late, posting a 20-7-1 O/U mark when they are rested. I like the Thunder to dictate the tempo here and take this one OVER.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

The Monday Bonus Plays split as the Lions +7.5 didn’t make it (hope you also played Cowboys -6 as that was a nice middle opportunity even though it didn’t get there) while BC won its bowl game against Maryland. I’ll turn to the NBA for tonight’s comp.

505 ROCKETS at 506 MAVERICKS 8:35 PM

Take: ROCKETS -6

Pretty simple reasoning for me on this play.

The Rockets bear little similarity to recent editions as this team has a far better work ethic than it did the past couple of seasons. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Houston is a more determined entry with Dwight Howard no longer on the roster.

One indicator of how things are now different for the Rockets is how well this team has performed on the back end of a two games in two nights segment. That’s when effort kicks in, and I’m very impressed with Houston’s 6-0 record in this scenario, which includes five spread wins.

Dallas is at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Mavericks are not good and their lack of quality depth has largely doomed them when forced to play without rest. The Mavs have dropped all five games when playing for a second straight evening, and only covered the spread once in that quintet.

The Rockets had a very easy time of it on Monday night against Phoenix and were able to spread out the minutes accordingly. So I don’t see fatigue as any kind of factor here and without some kind of advantage it’s really tough for me to make a case for the Mavericks being able to hang for 48 against a clearly superior opponent. I’m willing to spot the points in this game with the Rockets.
 

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