Tuesday 12/16/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:00pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,500 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 TAJOL (ML=8/1)
#2 IRISH GARDEN (ML=5/1)
#6 WELL NOTED LADY (ML=4/1)
#5 SUMMERS HONOUR (ML=6/1)


TAJOL - This front-runner should be aided by this contest's shorter trip. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. IRISH GARDEN - Cloninger is back up for another event today after riding on board this animal for the first time on December 3rd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Took a significant drop in class rating in the last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Returning to a similar level right here in this race. I'd expect a strong performance. WELL NOTED LADY - You'll be generating profits left and right by turning your racing money onto this jockey/handler combination. This mare is at the same 5 1/2 furlongs distance she won at on September 21st, which was at a higher class level than today's race. I really like that last race on December 3rd at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where she ran second. Ranked number 1 in EPS (earnings per start). Another indication that this horse has class. SUMMERS HONOUR - After the event aboard this animal on December 3rd, the rider is going to be in tune with the mare much better. You probably should ignore that last affair at Mahoning Valley Race Cour on a track listed as good where she finished off the board. Should do well right here in this race without the off-track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JESSICA'S CANDY (ML=3/1),

JESSICA'S CANDY - November 14th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #7 TAJOL to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7] Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:40pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $44,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 LUST FOR DIAMONDS (ML=6/1)


LUST FOR DIAMONDS - Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be advantageous. This horse coming off a nice try in the last month or so is a solid contender in my opinion. Trainer, Pino, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 DEBIT (ML=3/1), #1 NAUGHTY NANCY (ML=4/1), #3 LADY FOREST (ML=9/2),

DEBIT - This vulnerable equine will most likely be at the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish. NAUGHTY NANCY - Just don't figure that she is worth it at the probable odds. LADY FOREST - There's speed, zip, and more speed in this affair. Doesn't look too good for this equine. Doubtful that the rating she garnered on October 26th will be good enough in this race.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LUST FOR DIAMONDS - The odds should be right to invest in this magnificent animal. There are some 'hidden' pluses in the last event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 LUST FOR DIAMONDS to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Tuesday 12/16 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

2 / 1,2,6 / 1,3,9 / 1,3 = $18


Best Bet: HUNT N SAVE (3rd)

Spot Play: BLACK ACE HANOVER (9th)


Race 1

(4) HUSTLINHANNAH raced gamely last out and has been sharp showing good bursts of speed. (5) TOUGH CALL has been facing slightly tougher and picks up the top driver. (2) SEPTEMBER HALL well bred gelding just missed making it two straight last out; threat.

Race 2

(6) TAGMASTER owns good gate speed and will offer a big price with the top driver; fires early. (1) HALL OF MUSCLES gets sent out for proven connections off a nice victory but does get a negative driver change. (2) CABO fits nicely in the series and looks to be in line for a nice trip up close.

Race 3

(3) HUNT N SAVE gelding makes his third start back off a layoff and should be primed for an improved effort. (2) MARIGOLD BLOOM lightly raced filly was the top driver's choice and is one of few with upside in the race. (1) STAR MASTER FOX owns a win against similar and gets the best post.

Race 4

(1) CHROME SEELSTER takes a huge drop in competition, gets the best post, and will be tough to keep out of the top few spots. (5) HE'S A BEACHBOY has made the most money on the year and is capable of pacing a good mile. (2) RULING V C N gelding makes his first start in a new barn and should be in line for a decent trip.

Race 5

(5) VICTORINTHEVALLEY five-year-old trotter raced gamely last out and will look to get the jump on the field early. (2) LIFE LONG HANOVER doesn't look good on paper but the trotting gelding has beaten better on the year; threat. (7) GET PACKIN will offer low value and could be in trouble if the 12-year-old doesn't get an easy lead; use caution.

Race 6

(2) HEEZA NORDIC looks to be the horse to beat in the series winning for fun last out. (1) ST ELIAN'S FIRE filly gets the best post and owns some ability. (8) ZORGWIJK IMPACT has room to improve second start for new connections.

Race 7

(3) U BETTOR WATCH OUT has been second in four straight but looks to be tough in a weak field. (9) CHEEKY FOOL held off the top choice last out but will need a smooth trip for a chance late. (1) AUTO PILOT rarely wins and is best used underneath.

Race 8

(2) LUCKY CHARM was an easy winner at this level first start in a new barn last out and could have more to offer. (9) TABULATOR could be in a decent spot turning for home with some racing luck. (1) STARBUX EDEN mare owns some back class and probably needed the start over the track last week.

Race 9

(1) BLACK ACE HANOVER gets sent out first start in a new barn for a trainer that gets results in that scenario; driver's choice. (2) ASTOUNDING HANOVER is in the same boat as the top choice and has room to improve off a nice effort. (6) ROCK THE WIND gelding could be the sleeper in the race and could have an excuse last out with the off track.

Race 10

In a really weak field (3) MORELAND FLASH bumps up in class but will be tough to beat with a similar effort to his last start. (1) KENNAIRN LIFE SIGN gets the best post and has been pacing some decent miles. (9) LIGHTNINGINTHESKY comes off a big win that was set up with a fast half; command a price.

Race 11

(3) REALLY REALY SWEET was much improved last out and could get an easy lead with a race devoid of early speed. (1) SAINTFRANCIS raced well against similar last out; threat. (9) DAY TO DAY four-year-old is inconsistent from week to week but is capable of a good effort.

Race 12

In a field full of inconsistent trotters (5) WILD NORDIC should offer a big price an has been competitive against better on the year. (1) BROADWAY BOUND seven-year-old gets the best post and takes a significant drop in class. (4) TALLERTHANWOODY adds lasix for the second time but could need a start off a layoff.

Race 13

(2) BLACKHAWK LOOKOUT keeps the top driver and gets sent out for proven connections in a weak field. (4) TIM'S FINALE gelding owns a good brush when timed right and raced well first start over the track. (1) MOTOMAN raced well at a big price last out and finds a similar field.

Race 14

(8) DETROITER will look to rebound after burning cash last out. The pacer should offer better value and just needs to find a way into the race. (4) STRAIGHT MAGIC adds second time lasix and could show some improvement. (3) FLYING MINDALE has just been racing evenly but does find a weak field.

Race 15

(2) ROUNTUIT BLUEGRASS will look to make it three straight at this level and has been impressive. (1) MAGIC MANNY has been racing gamely but gets a negative barn change; command a price. (6) MOVIN N SHAKIN is in the same boat as the top choice but will need more.

Race 16

(1) CULLENS BLUE JEAN owns back class on the field and has beaten much better on the year. (4) PRO DUECE could be one of few threats to the top choice with some racing luck. (5) TIDEWATER TOMAHAWK went a big effort last out but faces tougher; use underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Gulfstream Park (1st) One Eyed Candyride, 7-2
(6th) Dreamin of Clarise, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (4th) Hustle Land, 4-1
(7th) Always Wildcatin', 7-2


Parx Racing (1st) Banks Robertson, 6-1
(6th) Lust for Diamonds, 6-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Our Brother B. A., 3-1
(8th) Tale Be Told, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Tuesday's free selection: Eastern Kentucky Colonels - 5 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY:Take BUFFALO -9 over Drexel

 

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Totals4U

Tuesday's Free Selection: Mercer Bears - 4 1/2

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Minnesota/Washington under 201

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Dallas/New York under 203

 

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Tuesday: Take MINNESOTA/WASHINGTON OVER the total of 200½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Tuesday: Tennessee State Tigers + 15

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. Vegas

Mr. Vegas Free TUESDAY pick 12/16: 8:05 PM ET

NBA (505) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (506) NEW YORK KNICKS

Take: over

Anytime a good west team meets a weak east team you have to really take a good look to find a reason not to play the west team. I can't find one here, Dallas just head and shoulders better than the Knicks. Dallas has a deep bench with lots of veteran talent. Word in New York is that Carmello has agreed to a trade if it's the right place. Makes you wonder if he doesn't want to stay that this team hasn't much of a future. And we can see why, the Knicks have won just one time in their last 12 games. They have done better covering spreads though, going 5-2 their last seven. But what I really like about today's game is the OVER. Dallas has been a great over play, going 7-1 O/U their last eight and 11-3 O/U their last 14. The Knicks have been streaky in this department, post two consecutive Unders, but before that four straight overs. I believe the Mavericks will push this pace tonight. I'm going OVER on Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday 9:05 PM NHL

(71) NEW YORK RANGERS at (72) CALGARY FLAMES

Take: (71) NEW YORK RANGERS -110

Metrics are big part of the equation for many baseball handicappers. That’s not so much the case in other sports, although the metric community is growing across the board. That’s clearly the case in the NHL, as there are now a wealth of stats available to get a truer read on teams that the old school base statistics can offer.

The Calgary Flames spent the first portion of the season causing metrics believers to just shake their heads on a regular basis. All the data said the Flames were getting lucky, but they just kept on winning. However, the regression to the norm is now taking place, and in a pretty big way.

The Flames have hit the skids of late, and they will enter tonight’s home game against the Rangers on a five game losing streak. The good breaks have ground to a halt, the goaltending has slumped and a team that was supposed to be pretty mediocre is now playing that way.

The Rangers are currently just barely in the Eastern Conference playoffs as far as the current standings are concerned, but they’re coming into tonight’s battle in decent form. The Broadway Blues will be looking to win for the fourth straight game, so they’re trending in the opposite direction of the Flames.

In breaking down some of the key categories, this is pretty much a sweep for the road team. The Rangers have the better overall data, they win the home/road showdown on the stat sheet, and they’re also owners of the better special teams, both 5×4 and 4×5. With the Flames now mired in their first slump of the season, I will look for the Rangers to cash a winning ticket at what is a very reasonable price tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Comp Pick for Tuesday, December 16, 2014: 7:35 PM ET

NBA (503) MIAMI HEAT VS (504) BROOKLYN NETS

Take: (504) Brooklyn Nets

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, December 16, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets. Dwayne Wade might be the engine that drives this year's edition of the Miami Heat, but center Chris Bosh has been the heart and soul of this team as he's having a great season. Problem is, Bosh is doubtful for today's game at Brooklyn with a calf injury. Bosh is averaging 21.5 ppg, 8.17 rebounds and has 19 blocks. Wade played through an illness last week and if Bosh doesn't play, then a lot will fall to the guard's shoulders here tonight. The Heat are just 11-13 on the season while Brooklyn is 10-12, both not living up to expectations. Biggest problem for the Heat has been on defense where they have a 111.7 efficiency rating (league avg is 107.3). They are also well below the league pace average of 92.6 with a 88.1 rating (pace is possessions per 48 minutes). Brooklyn has been much better on defense, coming in below the league average, though they have struggled to just a 104.4 offensive average. The Heat have covered just twice in their last eight games. Brooklyn is bringing a two game win streak both S/U and ATS into tonight's contest. Brooklyn has also covered six of the last nine in this series. If Bosh doesn't play it's going to be a long night for the Heat. Take Brooklyn as your Bonus Play on Tuesday

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers

1* Bonus Play on TB@PHI to go over the total...

A revitalized Philadelphia Flyers team is coming into this clash as winners of back-to-back games, scoring a total of nine goals. The Tampa Bay Lightning have dropped four of their last five and their usually so efficient offense has been nowhere to be seen. They've not had any problem scoring on Philly over recent meetings though, claiming five straight scoring four goals or more in each game. I think we'll see a high scoring tilt at Wells Fargo Center tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Flyers Power Play - Only the Penguins and the Capitals have a better conversion rate on the power play than the Flyers 24%. They've been particularly prolific as of late, finding the net in seven consecutive games while going 7-for-20 on the man advantage.

2. Road Woes - The Lightning have conceded 22 goals over their last six outside of Tampa, winning only one of those games.

3. X-Factor - Jakub Voracek is tied with Evegni Malkin for second place in the NHL with his 37 points. He has four points over his last three games, and he's likely to add to that total tonight.

Selection: This is a play on TB@PHI to go over the total (Free)