Comps
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Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 193.5
Bottom Line: Oklahoma City is 28-15 UNDER in home games since the beginning of last season. The Lakers are 23-10 UNDER in road games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I expect a much better defensive effort from the Lakers here after allowing an opponent over the century mark for the first time this season last game. Together, these two teams are 5-1 UNDER on the season, but the public is pounding the over here because of LA's perception as a high scoring team. The Lakers did put up a big number in their last game, but they failed to reach the century mark in their two prior. With this being the Lakers first road game of the season, I don't expect them to be hitting on all cylinders. Plus, LA will likely be more concerned about Houston tomorrow night. Over the last 2 seasons, 5 of 7 in this matchup have gone UNDER. Take UNDER 193.5 points for 1 unit tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers +6
I'll take the Pacers in the home dog role tonight considering they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record while the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Pacers have not played since October 30th so they should be well rested and well prepared tonight. But here's the clincher: Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, team that had a losing record last season, are 23-4 ATS since 1996. Take the points.
MTi Sports
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Over
The Wizards are 7-0 OU (+14.5 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a win in which Gilbert Arenas shot better than 66% from the field and 6-0 OU (+12.2 ppg) after a win at home in which Deshawn Stevenson shot better than 66% from the field. The Cavs are 11-0 OU (+12.1 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. Consider these two OVER the total.
Karl Garrett
Phoenix at MIAMI -3'
Comp play winner on Atlanta-New Orleans OVER the total last night.
In a meeting of a pair of 3-0 teams, the G-Man prefers the host, as I expect Miami to handle matters against Phoenix on their home hardwood tonight.
Miami swept last year's two meetings, and have won and covered 3 in a row overall in this East-West rivalry.
The home team has gone 8-3 against the spread the last 11 meetings, and the Suns have struggled playing on Miami's floor in recent meetings, as Phoenix is on a 1-7 spread slide the last 8 games played in Florida.
Throw in the fact Miami is on a 21-8-1 spread run their last 30 games contested against the Pacific Division, and we have the makings of a Miami win and cover.
Take the Heat.
2♦ MIAMI
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston -7 at PHILADELPHIA
Not really much to think about in this game, as it looks like Boston is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, as the C's are out of the gate at 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 against the spread.
Philadelphia has won 2 in a row, but beating the Bucks and the Knicks is not the same as beating Boston.
Series numbers show the Celts having won 4 in a row, and 7 of the last 8 straight up.
Boston is also 12-4-1 against the spread the last 17 series meetings with the 76ers.
Against the spread, the road team is 17-8-1 the last 26 meetings, and Boston has been a strong road performer of late, going 9-3-1 against the spread their last 13 on the highway.
The choice tonight is an easy one for us, play on Boston.
4♦ BOSTON
Stephen Nover
Phoenix at MIAMI
One the heels of an overtime winner on the Kings, we take the Under in this Interconference clash.
One of the hardest lines for the oddsmaker to make is an NBA total where there are contrasting styles. You won't have a bigger example of this than the Suns-Heat matchup.
The Suns are No. 1 offensively averaging 117.3 points. The Heat rank first in defensive field goal percentage at 38.6 percent and are tops in 3-point defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 21.6 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is yielding 87.7 points per game, the fifth-lowest in the NBA.
The situation, spot and handicap favor defense over offense in this matchup.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has always stressed defense since taking over in Miami two years ago. It's not a fluke the Heat are playing so well on defense.
Jermaine O'Neal suffered a broken nose in Miami's last game. He'll probably play but may be limited. That could open up more playing time for reserve big man Joel Anthony. O'Neal is a scorer. Anthony is a shot-blocker ranking sixth in the category despite playing just 18 minutes per game.
The Suns are running again under Alvin Gentry. Steve Nash still is highly effective. However, Amare Stoudamire isn't 100 percent yet and Leandro Barbosa has a sore wrist.
The Suns are 3-0, but their victims have been the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. These teams have a combined record of 2-9 with none expected to make the playoffs. None of the three rank among the top 13 teams in scoring defense either.
So the Suns are stepping up in class for the first time. This is the beginning of a five-game, seven-day road journey for the Suns. They will travel nearly 7,000 miles during this trip.
If the Heat were to get a big lead, Gentry very well could save his team's legs by joining the Heat in slowing the ball down while going more to his bench.
3♦ UNDER
Tom Freese
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Denver is 19-7 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 15-5 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Nuggets are 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest and they are 7-1 ATS their last 8 road games. Indiana is 2-7 ATS their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as home underdogs. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games vs. the Nuggets. PLAY ON DENVER
LT Profits
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
The Boston Celtics are playing like a team on a mission thus far while going 4-0, but the Philadelphia 76ers are a dangerous team at home and this is a lot of points for them to be receiving at Wachovia Center.
The 76ers have won two straight since losing at Orlando on opening night, winning their only home game by 13 points over the Milwaukee Bucks and then beating the New York Knicks by 14 in overtime at Madison Square Garden.
The Philadelphia starters can compete with any team in the East right now, as Elton Brand is healthy unlike last year and new young point guard Lou Williams has done an excellent job thus far. To give you an idea how talented the Sixers are right now, they had four starters in double-digits vs. the Knicks and both of their starting guards (Williams and Andre Iguodala) has double-doubles in points and rebounds. They make for a tough matchup for any team in the league/
Now the Celtics are eying a return trip to the NBA Fianls after getting knocked out by the Orlando Magic without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs last year, and they did sweep the season series from the 76ers 4-0. However, the two wins here in Philadelphia were by just one (100-99) and two (100-98) points respectively/
We see no reason why a new and improved Sixers team cannot hang with Boston again here, and an outright upset would not be too shocking.
Pick: 76ers +7