Tuesday 09/08/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB SHORT SHEET


Tuesday, 9/8/2009

National League

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON, 7:05 PM ET
MARTINEZ: PHI 10-2 vs. Washington
LANNAN: 1-6 TSR, 5.89 ERA vs. Philadelphia

CHICAGO CUBS at PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET
DEMPSTER: 0-7 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125
DUKE: PIT 28-21 in home night games

FLORIDA at NY METS, 7:10 PM ET
VANDENHURK: FLA 7-0 Away revenging home loss by 6+ runs
REDDING: NYM 11-25 after allowing 2 runs or less

ATLANTA at HOUSTON, 8:05 PM ET
VAZQUEZ: ATL 5-1 Under at Houston
PAULINO: HOU 22-11 at home off one run win

ST LOUIS at MILWAUKEE, 8:05 PM ET
SMOLTZ: STL 41-19 2nd half of season
PARRA: MIL 6-1 Over at home vs. St. Louis

CINCINNATI at COLORADO, 8:40 PM ET
MALONEY: CIN 3-13 vs. Colorado
MARQUIS: COL 24-6 as a favorite of -150 or more

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA, 9:40 PM ET
BILLINGSLEY: LAD 33-11 when the total is 9 to 9.5
BUCKNER: ARI 9-26 revenging BB losses where team scored 2 runs or less

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO, 10:15 PM ET
CORREIA: 13-9 TSR as an underdog
LINCECUM: SF 6-1 at home vs. San Diego

American League

(TC) TEXAS at CLEVELAND, 8:05 PM ET Game 2
MCCARTHY: TEX 14-34 Away vs. lefties
LAFFEY: CLE 13-3 Under at home vs. AL West

TAMPA BAY at NY YANKEES, 7:05 PM ET
PRICE: TB 0-8 Away after allowing 10+ runs
GAUDIN: NYY 30-10 after allowing 2 runs or less

MINNESOTA at TORONTO, 7:07 PM ET
DUENSING: MIN 20-28 vs. lefties
ROMERO: TOR 6-1 at home vs. Minnesota

BALTIMORE at BOSTON, 7:10 PM ET
HERNANDEZ: BAL 19-11 Away revenging home loss by 6+ runs
BUCHHOLZ: 5-11 TSR as favorite

DETROIT at KANSAS CITY, 8:10 PM ET
PORCELLO: DET 15-9 at Kansas City
CHEN: KC 2-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more

OAKLAND at CHI WHITE SOX, 8:11 PM ET
TOMKO: OAK 3-13 playing with a day off
TORRES: CWS 65-39 at home vs. righties

SEATTLE at LA ANGELS, 10:05 PM ET
HERNANDEZ: SEA 39-27 off a loss
KAZMIR: LAA 18-23 vs. division

Added Games

TEXAS at CLEVELAND, 5:05 PM ET Game 1
HUNTER: TEX 16-5 after a loss by 4+ runs
CARRASCO: CLE 3-11 at home after allowing 2 runs or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Tuesday:

Take CHICAGO CUBS (Dempster) -110 over Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Bonus Play

Another comp play winner on Monday as Cincinnati wins outright at Rutgers.

Now 31-14-3 with our comp plays the last 48 days.

No issue tonight laying a little road wood with the Cubs tonight as they look to notch another win over the slumping Pirates.

Pittsburgh has lost 10 of their last 11 games, and they have also lost 3 of the 4 games played against Chicago this season at home. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 2-7 versus the Cubbies this season.

Pirates starter Zach Duke has dropped his last pair of starts, and he is winless over his last 5 starts against Chicago, going 0-4.

Ryan Dempster will counter, and Dempster just worked 7 innings without allowing an earned run in a hard-luck loss to the White Sox. Look for Dempster to get some defense played behind him tonight, and for the Chicago bats to once again hand Duke a loss.
Play on the Cubbies.

3? CUBS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

Tuesday night in the Bronx, and the hitting shoes should be on for both Tampa Bay, and New York.

Tampa was swept in yesterday's double-header, scoring just 2 runs total against Sabathia and Burnett. Expect the Rays to get more than 1 run tonight, as Yankees starter Chad Gaudin does sport an over 5 season ERA this year.

The Rays will turn to David Price whose road ERA is a sky-high, 6.81.

New York has played OVER the total in 6 of their last 8 games, and 7 of their last 10 overall.

The Yanks are also on a 9-3 OVER run their last 12 games played against the AL East, and with Price and Gaudin serving them up this evening, look for another OVER to hit the books when these 9 innings are completed.

G-Man playing the HIGH in Tampa-New York tonight.

4♦ OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Experts

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

David Price continues to get way too much respect from the oddsmakers as tonight we can grab the Yankees, usually a steep favorite at home, at a very reasonable price. It's not like Price has pitched well away from Tropicana Field either posting a 6.81 ERA in eight road starts. As a team, Tampa Bay is nine games under .500 on the road and fading badly in the Wild Card chase. The Yankees have won 43 of their last 61 games and getting them at this price is a bargain.

Play on: NY Yankees

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Paul Leiner

Free Pick for Today

Game: Mets vs Marlins

Prediction: 25* Marlins -115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

EZ'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals


(901) Philadelphia Phillies -139


(Listing Martinez and Lannan)

The Washington Nationals starting pitcher John Lannan has really been struggling as of late. In his last three starts Lannan is 0-1 with an ERA of 8.59. I'm sure that Lannan is not looking forward to facing a Phillies team that he is 0-5 against lifetime in seven career starts that includes 0-2 this season. Pedro Martinez gets the start for the Phillies and he has pitched very well. Martinez has had plenty of pop on his fastball, often reaching the low 90's on the radar gun, and he has also mixed in an effective changeup. Pedro is 3-0 in five starts and I expect him to pitch well here against the Nat. Usually there might be a worry that the Phillies might not get up to play the lowly Nats, but coming off of a four game sweep at the hands of the Astros, I expect Washington to get the Phillies full attention. Play on Philadelphia.

2009 Free Selections Record 129-110 (53.8)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Game: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Prediction: under

Reason: San Francisco is 12-1 UNDER in the last 13 starts made by Tim Lincecum if they lost their last game and they are 6-0 UNDER with Lincecum when he has 4 days of rest. The Giants are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall and they are 8-3 UNDER with Lincecum in his last 11 starts vs. the Padres. San Diego is 7-1 UNDER off a loss and they are 7-3 UNDER after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Padres are 4-1-1 UNDER with Kevin Correia when he starts with 5 days of rest. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Lincecum vs. Correia)

 

[Warchant]

It seems we have enough interest to combine resources and start providing each other with some of the cappers that Cork would frequently provide. Hopefully he'll return soon and join us.

I'm specifically interested in Redd and Nover (suggestions welcome), and it would be nice to have a group that could contribute on the non package releases like Budin or Valentino.

PM me if interested in putting something together.

Also, in deference to the board moderators, please read the disclaimer here
before fully committing. I have contributed to groups in the past without issue.

 

[brewerfan003]

It seems we have enough interest to combine resources and start providing each other with some of the cappers that Cork would frequently provide. Hopefully he'll return soon and join us.

I'm specifically interested in Redd and Nover (suggestions welcome), and it would be nice to have a group that could contribute on the non package releases like Budin or Valentino.

PM me if interested in putting something together.

Also, in deference to the board moderators, please read the disclaimer here
before fully committing. I have contributed to groups in the past without issue.

you got my pm....hopefully it can happen!

 

[goldencontender]

Tuesday Mlb comp play GC-

Sport: MLB
Game: Cardinals at Brewers
Date/Time: 9/8/2009 8:10PM EST
Pick: Brewers
Reason: On Tuesday the Bonus Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers. Game 910 at 8:05 eastern. The Cardinals fit a negative system of mine tonight. What we want to do is play against certain road teams off a road favored win at 200 or more, if the total was eight or less and our team was at home and had four or less hits. These road teams are just 3-10 straight up.
The Cardinals may be one of the best teams in baseball,however they are just 4-10 this year in the second game of a road series if they won game one. This game is a rematch from September third. In that game the Brewers beat the Cards on the road 4-3. John Smoltz makes the start tonight and he has a 7.76 road era this season. He allowed 4 runs in 6 innings in that home start vs the Brewers a few days ago. Milwaukee will counter with M.Parra tonight. In his three starts vs the Cardinals he has been solid. Parra has pitched 20 innings allowing just five earned runs. He went six innings allowing just two runs in last weeks game. Look for the Brewers bats to bounce back today.
On the late phone front I have the American League Game of the month. This play is backed with a 98% Dominator system that wins by an average 4 runs per game and two Power angles. Top plays have been solid all year in Baseball. Take the Brewers tonight as the Bonus Play. BOL GC-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits Sports Group

Aaron Laffey may be the Cleveland ace right now, considering that he has allowed three earned runs or less his last six starts and has a 3.55 ERA overal YTD. Go Under in Game 2.

The Texas Rangers continue to be the most Under-friendly team in baseball, and we look for more of the same tonight in Game 2 of their doubleheader vs. the Cleveland Indians.

Brandon McCarty looked good in his first Major League start in three months last week, allowing only one run and three hits in 6.1 innings vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. McCarty does have a track record vs. the Indians, and it is a very good one. He has allowed three runs or less in all six of his career starts vs. Cleveland, including one start this season back in April. It helps that he is facing a Tribe lineup that is averaging just 3.50 runs over the last 10 games.

Aaron Laffey is a rare bright spot in was has been a disastrous season for the Indians, as he has a winning 7-4 record with a nice 3.55 ERA. Most importantly, he is pitching his best ball of the season right now, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in six consecutive starts and in eight of his last nine outings. The promising southpaw is facing a Texas lineup that is batting a disappointing .230 vs. left-handed pitching on the road this year.

Finally, pending the result of Game 1 tonight, the Under is 37-14-2 in the last 53 Texas road games, as well as 84-45-7 in all Rangers games for the entire season! The Under is also 22-7-1 in the last 30 Cleveland home games, so look for runs to be scarce in the nightcap.

Free Pick: Rangers, Indians Under 9 (-110) (DH Game #2)

 

[zags]

st bernadines group Bonus Plays

lillefty -nice run of 9 of 10 winning days

1* cleveland/ texas under 9 total(game 1 of the doubleheader)
2 teams struggling offensively meet up tonight At the JAKE. Both team are 2-8 to the under in their last 10. Both have their main offensive catalysts out of the lineup( cle- sizemore, tex hamilton). Texas has been the best team in MLB this year for unders at 84-45-7. Tommy Hunter has a road era of 2.20 and has seen 3 of his 4 road starts go under the total. Texas hit only .226 over the weekend vs the orioles and just seem to be hurting offensively w/out Young, Jones and Hamilton. Cleveland pitcher Carrasco was the Phillies top pitching prospect and big things were projected from him. He has huge strikeout potential. He was making his MLB debut last time out. I am sure he was nervous and expect a much better performance this time out.


(pingpongfool) +11.78 units up in sept so far
NOTICE: This is a TEAM TOTAL PLAY, not an over under play.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Selection : San Diego Team Total Points OVER 2.5 -110 for Game
Besides needing a haircut, Tim Lincecum is the man and I see no reason why he won't be on his game again tonight. But I am willing to lay 1 unit on SD scoring more than 2.5 points. (even Chris Carpenter from St Louis gets a line of 3 team total in most of his starts) Lincecum has owned SD in his career but is 1-1 3.79 ERA in three starts versus San Diego this season. Look for 3 or more runs on the board by the time Tim is done and we may even get 1 more run from the bull pen.

This is a 1* Play

good luck to all
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FREDDY WILLS comp


Take Indians Game 2 @ -108 with Laffey 1-Dime (1-5 scale)
We are going with Laffey here as he has been just great at home and the Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 game 2 of double headers. Laffey will go up against McCarthy in what looks like a pitching mis-match. Laffey at home has been great he's 4-0 and the Indians are 5-1 in six starts where he owns 1.90 ERA in 42.2 IP giving up 42 hits and 15 BB while striking out 18. Laffey faced the Rangers once this year where he went 6.2 innings gave up 6 hits and 0 ER. The Rangers have hit the ball well vs. lefties, but not on the road as they are 16-40 in their last 56 road games vs. LH starters including a .230 average and 4.15 runs per 9 innings this year vs. LHP. Rangers are also 2-8 in McCarthy's last 10 road starts.

McCarthy has been up and down on the road this year, and I don't see him pitching well here as the Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. RH starter. McCarthy is 2-2 away with a 5.91 ERA but the Rangers are 2-4 in his starts on the road. He had a start earlier in the year vs. the Indians at home where he went 5 innings gave up 3 ER, but allowed 4 hits and 4 BB with 2 HR. McCarthy here on the road is sure to give up some runs and not go deep into the game in 6 starts on the road he's gone 35 innings and allowed 46 hits and 15 BB. Far too many base runners to be successful and I think the Indians will get back at him here today in game 2 of the double header.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seabass Bonus Play

Florida Marlins

 

[brewerfan003]

anyone thinking of picking up fazzini's 15 dimer?

 

[steelers7]

anyone interested in going in on a 30 day package for patron?? he's been killin already this season. pm me if interested.

 

[zags]

more st bernaine comps

(big time)-
Det -1.5 ** . KC is terrible, Tigers have their claws out and should shread the Royals here tonight. Bombs away tonight, Tigers tear up Chen.


mike train - 63-32 run since all star break
1* Phillies -155
Philly just got swept in 4 games in Houston. They just could not hit with runners in scoring position. There is no better way to overcome hitting woes than to visit the Washington Nationals. Although Lannan has been a much better pitcher at home, but the Phils have had success against him of late. Although I'm still not sure what to think of Pedro, he has been on lately. If Pedro lets up 5 or less, the Phils bats will do the rest!

good luck to all tonight lets cash
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Consultants

Bonus Play

Baltimore Orioles/Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5

Baltimore is playing out the string here in September, trying to get a glimpse of what looks to be a nice future with some very talented young players. Tonight, David Hernandez will take the mound for Baltimore, opposed by Clay Bucholz for the Red Sox.

Hernandez (4-6, 4.54) is a young, hard throwing righty who I think has a nice future, but more than likely as a reliever. He has pitched well at times, but tends to struggle the second and third time through a lineup. He is 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA in his last 5 starts.

Buchholz (4-3, 4.40) threw a no hitter against the O’s two years ago, but has yet to fulfill that potential as a full time Major Leaguer. He certainly has the ability, and the Red Sox refused to trade him at the deadline, so obviously they still believe in him. He allowed 7 runs on 9 hits vs. the Orioles the last time he faced them, which was August 2 in Baltimore.