Tuesday 08/18/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -1.5 -134

Bailey and Lincecum faced off on August 7th with the Reds getting the win in San Fran. The Giants let that game slip away, blowing 3 different 2-run leads. I really believe the Giants will have their revenge behind their ace and against one of the worst starters in baseball here. Bailey is 3-15 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.4 to 5.9. He is also 1-9 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.4 to 6.6. The Reds are 2-11 in their last 13 home games and 0-6 in Bailey's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Lincecum is 6-1 with a 1.53 ERA in his last 10 starts and I expect him to shut down the Reds while the Giants give him enough run support against Bailey and his 7.48 ERA. Take the Giants on the run line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy the Moose

While they have their sights on the NL West, the Colorado Rockies have the lead in the Wild Card race and will keep that edge with a win at the Nationals tonight.

The Colorado Rockies are 4½-games behind the Dodgers for top spot in the NL West but the Rockies are playing some great ball and are leading the Wild Card race. The Nationals are a team used to losing but since they hired a new manager this team has started to win games behind a newfound offense. This game would have been easy to pick a couple of months ago but today we'll have to take a closer look at the numbers before deciding on a winner.

With a 65-53 record the Rockies are battling for top spot in the NL West while holding on to the Wild Card. The Rockies lead isn't very comfortable with the Giants one game behind, the Marlins two games back and the Braves three behind with others biting at their heels. Every game is important and this one vs. the Nationals is a must-have.

The Rockies are 45-22 in their last 67 games overall. In their last 12 games as a favorite they are a money making 10-2. Colorado is 5-0 in their last five games as a road favorite and a profitable 6-0 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. In their last 24 road games vs. a right-handed starter they are 18-6. Tonight the Rockies send Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound and Colorado has won five of his last six starts. In his last six starts as a favorite the Rockies are 5-1.

The Nationals have played a lot better winning 11 of their last 14, but they still have the worst record in baseball. Washington is 23-72 in their last 95 games overall and in their last 52 games following an offday they are 15-37. The Nationals are 14-40 in their last 54 opening games of a series.

Craig Stammen and his 3-6 record take the mound tonight for Washington. Over his last three starts his ERA is a horrendous 10.97. The Nationals are 1-4 in his last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Colorado is 9-3 in their last 12 trips to Washington, and in the last 26 meetings between the clubs the Rockies are a money-making 19-7. Look for the Rockies to take another one in Washington tonight. Play on Colorado.

Free Pick: Rockies -159

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

A good king to his subjects back home, Felix Hernandez is an even better pitcher on the road this season for the Mariners who meet the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday evening.

Seattle pitcher Felix Hernandez is one of the top pitchers and has some of the best numbers in the American League. And while he’s been good at home, he’s done his best work on the road. That’s not good news for the Tigers who host King Felix and the Mariners tonight.

How tough is Hernandez away from Safeco Field? He hasn’t lost on the road since May 9. He’s 8-1 with a 1.96 ERA on the road this year. Seattle has won his last eight road outings dating back to May 14 with the King going 6-0 during that stretch.

He’s been lights out against Detroit as well going 5-0 with a 3.45 ERA in his last five outings. That includes a 2-0 record and 2.77 ERA this season. I’ve got one other note on Hernandez. The Mariners are 18-6 in his starts this season. Betters are +$1005 with Freddy this season making him the most profitable pitcher in the American League.

Detroit will send Rick Porcello to the hill. Porcello is back after serving a five-game suspension for his part in a brawl in Boston last week triggered when he hit Kevin Youkilis. Porcello is 10-7 on the year with an ERA of 4.34 but over his last three starts he’s 1-0 with an astronomical WHIP of 0.89 and an ERA of 2.45.

From my personal standpoint, I’ve been burned more times than I care to mention when backing Detroit this season. The scenario has been the same in each loss. The Tigers take a late inning lead and turn it over to their bullpen. That’s where Fernando Rodney gets involved. The Tigers closer – and I use that term loosely – has now given up four runs in his last four outings for Detroit. His ERA of 3.63 doesn’t give Tiger backers much confidence but it means a lot to those of us taking the Mariners in this spot.

Seattle is one game under .500 on the road and that number would be a lot worse if not for the work of Hernandez. The Tigers are 38-19 at Comerica Park and would be much better if not for Hernandez.

The Tigers acquired Aubrey Huff from the Orioles in an effort to beef up their struggling offense a unit that ranks 16th in baseball in runs scored and 22nd in team batting average. The Mariners are darn near the bottom of every MLB offensive category. They rank 28th in runs scored and 17th in team batting average and it’s only that high because of Ichiro and his .360 average.

This figures to be a low-scoring game and I expect Ichiro and Company to scratch out a couple of runs off Porcello. That might be all Hernandez gets or needs to beat the Tigers and continue his excellent adventure…on the road. I’m backing the King and his court in this one.

The total is also worth a look. It’s at 7.5 at most books with the public favoring the Over.

Free Pick: Mariners -124

 

[Tiznow214]

lot of heavy chalk today

 

[thinkmcflythink]

will post write up when I get home. Above was posted from blackberry.

 

[Silkwood]

My sub to EZWINNERS has expired. Anyone have EZ? He has been hot and has a 10 STAR going today.

 

[huskers84]

Does anyone have Dr. Bond 24* for today? Anyone interested in splitting? Thanks and good luck.

 

[brewerfan003]

does anyone have Craig Davis today?
40 dime mlb run lock?
he has been very good w/ big plays this year

 

[young1jesus]

Any1 have this?

ONE AND ONLY GUARANTEED
MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

MUST WIN OR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
OF BASEBALL ARE ABSOLUTELY FREE

 

[brewerfan003]

hey cork! Welcome Back, did you see Craig Davis' play at all my friend? Hope you had a good vacation!

 

[ecrazul1977]

welcome back cork, me and other guys have been doing the work recently, lets make some contributions.

Yesterday was a thought loss with Weston and a Push with Drew Gordon (I bought and posted both)

 

[young1jesus]

THINKMCFLYTHINK

Do u have his bonus play between KC/CWS?

thanks in advance

 

[cork999]

JEFF BENTON

I am SMOKING hot!

5 STRAIGHT MLB WINNERS
+54 Dimes of profit​

 

[fadethefade]

Any1 have this?

ONE AND ONLY GUARANTEED
MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

MUST WIN OR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
OF BASEBALL ARE ABSOLUTELY FREE

Who is this???

 

[msmith2179]

Super Sports Group (SSG)

Florida v. Houston

PICK: OVER 9 +105 (8*) Best Bet

Thanks Yanks

 

[young1jesus]

Originally Posted by young1jesus
Any1 have this?

ONE AND ONLY GUARANTEED
MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

MUST WIN OR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
OF BASEBALL ARE ABSOLUTELY FREE


Who is this???


Bobby Esposito from eddieromanwins.com

 

[ecrazul1977]

Originally Posted by young1jesus
Any1 have this?

ONE AND ONLY GUARANTEED
MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

MUST WIN OR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
OF BASEBALL ARE ABSOLUTELY FREE


Who is this???


Bobby Esposito from eddieromanwins.com

why dont you get it???? :think2:

 

[khouston66]

Originally Posted by young1jesus
Any1 have this?

ONE AND ONLY GUARANTEED
MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

MUST WIN OR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
OF BASEBALL ARE ABSOLUTELY FREE


Who is this???



Bobby Esposito from eddieromanwins.com

what are you trying do? get people to buy this GOY??? There is no such thing as a GOY or a lock, this is betting. If it is the GOY he should just give it away for free and prove how good he is.

 

[cork999]

Thanks everyone, it's nice to be back but i love my home town in italy to. Hope everyone is doing well, if not let's work togeather and win some $$$$$$$$$$$$$

cork

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Consultants

Seattle Mariners -120 over Detroit Tigers

Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.72) has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year, and he’ll need to keep his nice season going if the Mariners are to stay in playoff contention. They’re currently 6 games back in the Wild Card Race, and while it doesn’t seem likely, they still have an outside shot. Hernandez has finally put it all together and should remain the ace of this rotation for years to come.

Rookie Rick Porcello (10-7, 4.34) has been one of the favorites for the Rookie of the Year award for most of the season, but has seemed to “hit the rookie wall” of late. He’s 2-1 with a 5.04 ERA in his last 5 starts. Detroit is leading the American League Central by 2 games over the White Sox and is in for a fight the rest of the way. Their pitching staff is their clear strength, and they’ll need Porcello to find that magic again these next six weeks if they want to make the playoffs.


Baltimore Orioles/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10

A couple of rookies take the mound tonight at “The Trop” as Jason Berken and the Orioles take on David Price and the Rays. both pitchers have struggled while each team has very strong offensive clubs. Looks like an over from here.

Berken (2-10, 6.63) somehow remains in the Orioles rotation, but as soon as fellow rookie Brad Bergesen returns from a leg injury, Berken will be back in the bullpen. For now, we can just enjoy betting against him or betting the over in his starts. He’s been awful all year, but particularly worse in his last 5 starts, as he’s 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA. He’s allowed 33 hits in 24 innings including 5 home runs.

Price (5-5, 5.13) has been somewhat disappointing in his first full season, but the Rays plan on sticking with him as his upsde is still very high. Tampa Bay will just have to deal with his occasional wildness in hopes that he’ll put it all together soon. Price is 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 5 starts. He’s allowed 36 hits in his last 28 innings, with 6 home runs. Considering both teams lineups coupled with two struggling pitchers, the over should be an easy play tonight.