Tuesday 07/07/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Yanks]

Alex Smart

Bonus Play

Milwaukee Brewers (-137)

Adam Wainwright (8-5, 3.32 ERA) the Cardinals starting pitcher tonight has been a workhorse for his team so far this season, but I can see him faltering very soon. Last time out he threw a season-high 122 pitches in a game his team eventually won in extra innings. That exhausting effort and the fact he has thrown at least 110 pitches in seven starts this year tells me a story of pitcher on the verge of imminent collapse and dead arm syndrome (in the short term). Meanwhile, Yovani Gollardo (8-5, 2.75 ERA)is another top tier hurler, that is off an impressive appearance , allowing only one run in seven quality innings while garnering a career high 12 strikeouts. Gollardo pitched eight lights out innings on May 25 here in Miller Park vs the Cards allowing no runs on just two hits, despite of getting a no decision. Tonight I am expecting a similar effort from the right hander, but this time I am betting on him to record the victory for his team. Final notes & Key Trends: Brewers are 5-0 in Gallardos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series. The Brewers have won 11 of the L/14 meetings in this series.

The Milwaukee Brewers

 

[Yanks]

Marc Lawrence

MLB Fan Appreciation Play

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Jul 7, 2009 7:05PM

PICK: Cincinnati Reds

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Cincinnati w/Harang
Note: Aaron Harang and the Reds find themselves in a serious bounce back mode tonight following last night's 22-1 pasting here against the Phillies last night. Harang enters tonight's fray in great KW form with 4 walks and 21 strikeouts in his last four starts. He's also 3-1 in his last four team starts against the Phils. With that look for Harang to improve to 10-3 in his last thirteen team starts in July here tonight.

Marc shares his MLB Fan Appreciation Play on Tuesday night's card and it's supported by a pair of NEVER LOST winning situations inside the game. Best of all it's a live dog. Get it now - you'll be glad you did!

1-unit play on Cincinnati with Harang.

 

[Yanks]

Willie Bee

COMP.

Brewers host St. Louis Cardinals in key NL Central series

Sitting just a game apart at the top of the division, the Cardinals and Brewers meet in Milwaukee for a three-game set starting Tuesday with a solid pitching matchup.
They were both supposed to be chasing the Chicago Cubs for second place in the NL Central. Perhaps even the improving Cincinnati Reds would give them a tussle. Instead, the Cardinals and Brewers open up a three-game series at Milwaukee's Miller Park with first place on the line.

St. Louis (45-39) owns the one-game lead entering the series, sitting two games ahead of the Brew Crew (43-39) in the win column. The teams are vastly different, yet eerily similar in many statistical departments offensively. Milwaukee is fourth in the NL scoring 4.72 per game while St. Louis ranks sixth at 4.43. Both teams are hitting .255, the Brewers have a 96-86 edge in power and the Cards have a 38-26 lead in steals.

On the mound and in the field St. Louis has a decent edge allowing 4.19 runs per game (fourth in the NL) to Milwaukee's 4.63, and the Cardinals are second with a 1.28 team WHIP while the Brewers are in the middle of the league in eighth with a 1.38 mark.

When it comes to scoring, the Brewers definitely have deeper lineup with three sluggers – Fielder (22), Braun (26), Cameron (14) – reaching double digits in homers. The Cards are pretty Albert Pujols and pray for the pitchers. Phat Albert is putting up another monster season with 31 homers, 82 BRI and a .336 average. His HR and RBI totals top all major leaguers, and he's sixth in batting average on the MLB list.

The Cardinals begin this series and what could be their most important week of the season – a trip to play four against the Cubs follows this – with Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.32) on the mound. He pitched St. Louis to an 8-1 win in Milwaukee on May 26, just 10 days after dropping a 1-0 decision to the Brewers at home. The Cardinals were 2-1 in Wainwright's starts vs. the Brew Crew in 2008. The Bi8rds have won four of his last five starts overall, with Wainwright fashioning a 3.34 ERA in the 35 innings he's worked over that span.

The Milwaukee hitters are batting just .226 as a group against the big St. Louis slinger (40-for-177). They have taken him deep five times, two of those homers by Ryan Braun who has a .946 OPS against Wainwright, tops among Brewers batters.

Yovani Gallardo (10-6, 2.75) will pitch opposite Wainwright. He saw the Cardinals once before this year, limiting them to just two hits over eight scoreless frames in what eventually became a 10-inning, 1-0 win at Miller Park (May 25). His only other career outing vs. St. Louis came in 2007 when the Redbirds knocked him around pretty good for an 8-3 win in Milwaukee.

The Brewers have fallen in three of Gallardo's last five starts despite the Mexican righty tossing up an excellent 2.55 ERA in those 31.2 innings. He has seen a bit of control trouble in that span with 18 walks though he's countered with 43 Ks, including 12 in his last outing, a 1-0 loss at home to the Mets.

Braun, recently named to his second NL All-Star squad, spoke out recently about the Brewers making a deal to help Milwaukee as they battle in the NL Central for a second straight season. After dropping three of four to the Cubs over the past weekend, Braun specifically pointed to the starting rotation as an area that GM Bob Melvin could improve the team. The Brewers left-fielder compared the starters they saw at Wrigley for the four-game set to a staff of aces.

"Their starting pitching was clearly a lot better than ours in this series. All four guys we saw in this series are No. 1, worst-case, No. 2-type starters," Braun told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "They make big pitches in big situations. You're not always going to get hits in those situations."

Of course, if Melvin could find another arm to beef up the Milwaukee rotation, would the offense support the new pitcher? With a 2-3 record while Gallardo has posted a 2.55 ERA in his last five starts, I'd have to say the answer to that is, "Maybe."

Milwaukee opened in the -140 to -150 range for this game with it dropping into the upper-130s now at several shops. The total for this one is 8 with the Brewers favored -155 at TheGreek for the series. Neither team is playing like gangbusters right now, with both of them 5-5 in recent action, and with the Brewers not necessarily overpowering at home (22-18 at Miller Park this year).

I'm going to go for a little dog money on this one taking Wainwright and the Cardinals +132 for the game and +135 for the series.

 

[Yanks]

Matt Fargo

Bonus Play

Last night's 21-run drubbing at the hands of the Phillies give the Reds extra line value on Tuesday. Cash Cincinnati in the underdog role on Tuesday in Philadelphia.
Can a team recover from a 21-run loss right away? I believe it can.

Cincinnati was bombarded last night by the Phillies and that does two things for us. It gives us enormous line value for tonight's game as well as putting the public squarely behind Philadelphia.

Despite winning four straight games, the Phillies are still five games under .500 at home and the Reds actually have a better road record than that. Cincinnati is 5-4 in its last nine games and brings in a 9-3 record in their 12 road games against teams with a losing home record. The Phillies meanwhile are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Despite not picking up wins, Aaron Harang is having a pretty solid season. He has a 3.86 ERA on the year and after a rough May, he has posted a 3.22 ERA over his last six outings. Over the last two seasons, he has had excellent success against the Phillies, putting up a 2.70 ERA covering three starts, all of which were quality performances.

He squares off against J.A. Happ who has yet to lose this season. He posted a 2.49 ERA as a relief pitcher and since entering the starting rotation, he has a 3.15 ERA covering either starts. The Phillies are just 4-4 in those games however and in three home starts, Happ has a 5.29 ERA.

The Reds are hitting .281 over their last 10 games against lefthanded pitching. Cincinnati falls into a solid contrarian underdog situation as well. Play against National League home favorites of less than -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season in July games. This situation is 61-39 (61 percent) over the last five seasons and it has picked up close to 34 units thanks to the underdog numbers involved.

Free Pick: Reds +139

 

[Yanks]

Big Al McMordie

Bonus Play

Nationals rookie Jordan Zimmermann will be making his first start at Coors Field tonight, and it won't be pretty. Chalk this one up to Jason Hammel and the Rockies.
Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Colorado Rockies at home in Denver over the Washington Nationals.

One of the true tests for any young starter who has shown promise is how he performs when he gets his first career start at Coors Field against the Rockies. Such is the case this evening for young Nationals righthander Jordan Zimmermann, who has shown so much promise in his rookie season for the worst team in baseball.

Long known as the most hitter-friendly park in the majors, Coors Field has dashed many hopes of young pitchers in the past. Zimmermann has been extremely impressive in his last several appearances in every category except the one that no doubt matters most – Wins. In five starts since the beginning of June, Zimmermann sports a 2.12 ERA but only has a single win to show for it.

Not only does Zimmermann have to deal with Coors Field for the first time in his career, but he also has to face a team that has been winning a lot of games lately and another young starter in Jason Hammel who also has been pitching extremely well.

Like Zimmermann, Hammel has excelled since the beginning of June (six starts), but unlike Zimmerman, Hammel has four wins in this stretch. And three of those have been at Coors Field. Take the Rockies.

Free Pick: Rockies -146

 

[Yanks]

IndianCowboy

Tuesday's Comp Selection

11-6 Comp Winners

Take the Under between the NY Yankees @ Minnesota Twins (Tuesday @ 8:10pm est). The NY Yankees are 48-34 and yet they are still looking ahead to Boston as they look to take over the division lead prior to the All Star Break. The Yankees have won 8 of 10 games and they come off a 6-7 loss to the Jays at home as they were attempting to sweep them. CC comes off a non-quality start where he was roughed up for 6 runs in less than 6 innings as he lost to Seattle 4-8. Note, that he lost as a -315 favorite. He looks to bounce-back today against the Twins no the road and given that CC is 3-0 over his last 4 road starts and he as well as the Yankees are on a bounce-back, he should have a strong outing today. After struggling early, Baker has put together 6 straight quality starts and is 4-0 over his last 6 starts. He is part of the reason why the Twins are 3 games above .500 as they put together a run to topple the Tigers who are just in front of them. I look for both pitchers to have a strong outing today as the Under 8-1 for the Yankees when the total is set at this range and the Under is 4-0 when Baker starts at home as an Underdog.

 

[fly73]

The Sports Investing Professional

Tuesday COMP.

Yesterdays Recap - just remember one thing....."Closer" is just a "C" away from "LOSER"
The Giants should have cruised but Idiot Boy Wilson had to turn an easy winner into
a cardio workout. The bottom line, however, is that we pick up a nice $500 piece of change
to add to our pie.

Today's Play(s) - This one is tough because the lay is so heavy. Of all the
games and totals I look at I think the biggest mismatch is Verlander vs Chen.
Question for me is to play the whole game or just the first 5. If you've watched
the Tigers lately, you know that they can't seem to get anyone out from their pen
and so I really don't want any part of that. I see the Tigers bouncing out to the
early lead and then after the 5th I don't care what happens. Let's take the bullpen
out, play ONLY THE FIRST 5, and gut it up to make the lay.

MLB - Detroit Tigers 1H -210[LISTED] Chen / Verlander - 1050.00 / 500.00

Record (10-3) + $2700

 

[fly73]

Totals4U

Tuesday's free selection:

Florida/San Francisco under 8

 

[fly73]

The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Tuesday:

LA DODGERS (Kershaw) -145 over NY Mets

 

[fly73]

.....

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional

Tuesday COMP.

Yesterdays Recap - just remember one thing....."Closer" is just a "C" away from "LOSER"
The Giants should have cruised but Idiot Boy Wilson had to turn an easy winner into
a cardio workout. The bottom line, however, is that we pick up a nice $500 piece of change
to add to our pie.

Today's Play(s) - This one is tough because the lay is so heavy. Of all the
games and totals I look at I think the biggest mismatch is Verlander vs Chen.
Question for me is to play the whole game or just the first 5. If you've watched
the Tigers lately, you know that they can't seem to get anyone out from their pen
and so I really don't want any part of that. I see the Tigers bouncing out to the
early lead and then after the 5th I don't care what happens. Let's take the bullpen
out, play ONLY THE FIRST 5, and gut it up to make the lay.

MLB - Detroit Tigers 1H -210[LISTED] Chen / Verlander - 1050.00 / 500.00

Record (10-3) + $2700

Fly, you keep posting comps and Bonus Plays in the wrong thread.
The last 2 posts you put up, are in the other thread and have been for hours.
Please check before you post.
Half of your post last night had to be deleted.

Thanks for the help and good luck.

 

[backdoorcover1]

JUST LETTING IT BE KNOW CRAIG DAVIS HAS A 100 DIME PLAY

One and Only

100 Dime

Run Line

Game of the Year



This play will remain available

until 5 minutes before first pitch

 

[Yanks]

Bobby Maxwell

Bonus Play

The Cubs are playing well right now, especially at Wrigley where they have won eight of their last nine home games. I'm going to ride the hot hand and play them and starter Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09 ERA) tonight.

Chicago has won eight of the last 10 against the Braves and took Monday's game 4-2.

Dempster is 4-1 at Wrigley this season and he gave up three earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 9-5 win on Thursday against the Brewers. He faced these Braves on June 22 and pitched well, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings but his offense gave him nothing in the 2-0 loss. Last year he threw a complete-game against these Braves at Wrigley, giving up two runs on four hits in a 7-2 victory.

Javier Vazquez (5-7, 3.05) is on the hill for the Braves and they are just 2-6 in his last eight starts. the Braves are just 2-6 as a road 'dog, 1-5 on the road and 1-6 agaisnt right-handed starters on the road.

Meanwhile the Cubs are 75-36 as a home favorite and 49-17 at home against teams with losing records. And they are 22-7 when Dempster pitches at Wrigley and 20-7 when he's a home chalk. This one is perfect for Chicago. Play the Cubs.

4? CHICAGO CUBS

 

[Yanks]

Triple Threat Sports!

Bonus Play

OVER in the White Sox/Indians game.

Tribe is 12-5 to the Over against southpaw starters this season, Sowers has an 8.81 ERA in three road starts this season, and just allowed 11 hits in six innings against the White Sox in his last outing. That struggle is nothing new for him, as he has a 7.72 career ERA against the Pale Hose. Chicago ace Beurhle not exactly stellar against the Indians in his career either, posting a 4.86 ERA in 33 starts. The OVER is the way to go here.

 

[Yanks]

Brad Diamond Sports

Bonus Play

Play on: (922) Boston (Beckett) -1 1/2 Runs over Oakland

Off a loss in game one of the series, favor the Sox to dine on Oakland pitching this evening. Boston hurler has been super this season with a 9-3 mark and a consistent 3.67 ERA. Opposing lefty Eveland of Oakland has a 18+ ERA in two starts versus Boston

 

[Yanks]

WUNDERDOG

Bonus Play

Game: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle -140 (moneyline)

Sometimes when you look over a game, you try to seek out and play against a team that is in their worst possible position to win. The Orioles fit that description tonight. They have played well at home, but on the road this young team has a tremendous drop-off offensively. The O's plate over five runs per game at home, but the road tally is just 3.8 and they are off a whitewash last night, which is their second problem. They are at their worst against left-hand pitching. The O's are scoring 5.3 against right handers, but just 3.8 against lefties, and face one of the top lefties in the game in Eric Bedard tonight. Bedard is 39-22 over the last four years, so I'm going with the Mariners in this one.

 

[Yanks]

Jeff Benton

Complimentary Selection

I always say, if I have to lose a play, I might as well get crushed, and boy did I with Monday’s Bonus Play on the Reds, who lost 22-1 at Philadelphia. I’ll get back on track Tuesday by backing the Rangers plus the big money in Southern California.


Obviously, the Angels have the perceived pitching advantage tonight with veteran John Lackey going up against youngster Dustin Nippert, who is making his first big-league start of the season after missing the first 3½ months with a shoulder injury. However, I’m not so certain the advantage is as great as the oddsmakers would have you believe.


First off, while Lackey has been dynamite in his last two starts, he has hardly been a picture of consistency this season, going 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA overall and 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA at home. In fact, the Angels have split his 10 starts this season, and going back to last year, they’ve lost five of his last six outings in Anaheim.


Also, Lackey hasn’t exactly enjoyed facing the Rangers in his career, going 10-10 with a 5.79 ERA in 28 career starts. In fact, the last time he faced Texas at home was on Sept. 26 last year, and the Rangers clobbered him for 10 runs in just 2 2/3 innings en route to a 12-2 victory, improving to 4-2 the last six times they’ve faced Lackey.


As for Nippert, he was strong in his minor-league rehab assignments with a 2.55 ERA, and he pitched very well in a 3-1 loss in Anaheim last August, allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-1 defeat.


Bottom line: Even though the Angels took last night’s series opener 9-4, they’re still just one game better than Texas in the standings and the Rangers are still 5-2 against the Halos this year. To get this kind of a plus price back with a quality team like Texas is well worth the shot.

(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)

3? TEXAS

 

[Yanks]

Scott Delaney

Today's Complimentary Selection

I am on a 27-17-1 run with complimentary releases.


Taking the Yankees in Minnesota tonight, and listing C.C. Sabathia only.


1♦ YANKEES (WITH Sabathia only)

 

[Yanks]

Matt Rivers

Complimentary Selection

For Tuesday take the Indians at US Cellular.

Jeremy Sowers is not good right now with his 2-6 record and the Indians overall are extremely underachieving but at this price with at least the potential that the Tribe have in Sizemore, Martinez, Choo and Hafner I'll take my chances with these visitors in revenge. I can't fully make this a pay play because Cleveland is certainly not a team that I really want to back as they are still mush.


Just last week the White Sox went to Jacobs Field and embarassed Eric Wedge' club in the easy three game sweep. Certainly things will not get easier here in Chicago as Mark Buehrle has been really good and the "good guys"as a whole have stepped things up a ton of late but with that said I still do not believe Ozzie Guillen's club is ready to be laying a price such as this.


I can easily see the South Siders regress a bit and come back down to Earth. The Indians have been miserable but if you're telling me that this team can't bust out at anytime than you're crazy. There are weapons on this club, no matter how underachieving those weapons may be, it's still a bit tough to pass up this price in this semi rivalry.


Revenge plus some talent at this price is a must play on the Indians, period!

1♦ Indians (out of 5♦)

 

[LocksRus]

Ness has a 20*