Tuesday 07/07/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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MLB WRITE-UP

Tuesday, July 7

Hot Pitchers
-- Happ is 1-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers won last four Kershaw starts (2-0, 0.76).
-- Vazquez has a 1.37 RA in his last three starts.
-- Gallardo is 4-3, 1.87 in his last eight starts. Cardinals are 6-1 on road when Wainwright starts.
-- Hammel is 4-1, 2.95 in his last six starts. Zimmermann has a 1.90 RA in his last four starts.
-- Davis has a 1.29 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona's bullpen lost all three of those games. Correia is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two road starts.
-- Johnson is 4-1, 2.87 in his last six starts.

-- Rays won four of last five Shields home starts.
-- Beckett is 2-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox won last three Buehrle starts (2-0, 2.61).
-- Baker is 4-0, 3.43 in his last six starts.
-- Lackey is 1-0, 1.80 in his last two starts.
-- Bedard was 3-0, 2.00 in his last three starts before going on DL.

Cold Pitchers
-- Harang is 0-4, 5.18 in his last seven starts.
-- Pelfrey has a 6.75 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 8.86 in his last four starts.
-- Dempster is 1-2, 5.18 in his last four starts.
-- Moehler is 0-2, 9.00 in his last four home starts.
-- Sito is 1-2, 7.40 in his last four starts.

-- Rzepczynski was 9-5, 2.75 in 16 minor league starts this season.
-- Verlander is 1-2, 5.48 in his last four starts. Chen is 0-2, 4.50 in his two starts for Kansas City.
-- Eveland was 1-1, 7.40 in five starts before being sent to AAA-- he is starting here because Braden is on the bereavement list.
-- Sowers is 0-3, 9.39 in his three road starts.
-- Sabathia is 2-2, 5.00 in his last six starts.
-- Nippert had a 2.55 RA in four minor league starts this season; he has a 5-8, 6.42 record in 61 career major league games (14 career starts).
-- Guthrie is 2-5, 6.39 in his last seven starts.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won last four games, allowing four runs.
-- Dodgers are 13-7 in their last 20 road games.
-- Cubs won six of their last eight games.
-- Astros are 15-8 in their last 23 home games.
-- Rockies won 12 of their last 16 home games.
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games, but lost six of their last seven on road. Giants are 15-5 in their last 20 home games.

-- Rays won sixteen of their last nineteen home games.
-- White Sox won four of their last five home games.
-- Royals won their last three games, scoring 16 runs.
-- Twins are 17-8 in their last 25 home games. Bronx Bombers won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games, scoring 42 runs. Angels won 11 of their last 15 home games.
-- Mariners are 13-6 in their last nineteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Reds lost three of last four games, allowing 32 runs in last two.
-- Mets lost eight of their last 12 home games.
-- Pirates lost 16 of their last 23 road games.
-- Braves lost their last three games, scoring total of eight runs.
-- Brewers lost four of their last five games.
-- Nationals lost 19 of their last 23 road games.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine home games. Padres lost five of their last six games overall.

-- Blue Jays lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Tigers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Red Sox are just 5-6 in their last 11 games. A's are 8-14 in their last 22 games, but did win the last two.
-- Indians lost 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine games.

Totals
-- Over is 5-1-2 in Cincinnati's last eight road games; five of Phillies' last six home games stayed under the total. .
-- Dodgers' last five road games all went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Seven of last nine Atlanta road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Gallardo starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Colorado's last twelve home games.
-- Over is 11-3 in Arizona's last fourteen home games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Johnson starts.

-- Five of last six Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 13-5-1 in last nineteen games at Fenway Park.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last dozen Buehrle starts.
-- Seven of last nine Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in Angels' last fifteen home games.
-- Four of last five Guthrie starts stayed under the total.
 
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Trend Report

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Cincinnati's last 17 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati

7:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DETROIT
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Kansas City's last 18 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games at home

7:08 PM
TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. NY METS
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 16-8 SU in their last 24 games on the road
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

7:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games

8:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. HOUSTON
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. MILWAUKEE
St. Louis is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games

8:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. MINNESOTA
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games

8:11 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

8:40 PM
WASHINGTON vs. COLORADO
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 8 games

9:40 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ARIZONA
San Diego is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Diego
Arizona is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games

10:05 PM
TEXAS vs. LA ANGELS
Texas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Texas is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
LA Angels are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home

10:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SEATTLE
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

10:15 PM
FLORIDA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Florida is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Florida
 
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Dave Cokin

(909) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
(910) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take "(909) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS"

Big series opening tonight between the Cardinals and Brewers. Yovanni Gallardo is pitching great ball for Milwaukee, but Adam Wainwright has been solid as well for the Cardinals. The Brewers have not been especially dominant at home this season, while the Redbirds sport a winning road record. Tough game for sure, but I see some value at the price with the road underdog Cardinals.
 
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Jim Feist

(905) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
(906) HOUSTON ASTROS
Take "(905) PITTSBURGH PIRATES"

Pittsburgh lefty Paul Maholm throws strikes and is having a decent year, at 5-4. He says he is healthy, denying that knee and groin injuries have hampered his performance. "No, not at all," he said. "I'm perfectly fine to pitch." The team is 3-3 his last 6 starts, yet he is a dog here. Houston starts Brian Moehler is getting hit at a .304 clip and has a 5.66 ERA against the Pirates. Can't back the home favorite here. Play the Pirates.
 

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Anyone heard of this JumperJack guy that used to post his plays for free and is now charging as a service?
 

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Platinum Plays

Free Selection MLB:

PITTSBURGH PIRATES + 110 OVER the Houston Astros
 

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JR O'Donnell

Bonus Play

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Total 8½ un-115

We Find the Detroit Tigers as a "Team" the last week a poor .245 B.A with 6 homers & a terrible 2.7 runs per game when JJ Verlander is on the bump, Detroit is 8-1 the last 9 games to the UNDER .
 

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John Ryan

Bonus Play

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds +136

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds as the face the Phillies set to start at 7:05 EST. Phils have played well of late, but are in a series of poor roles for this game. We had them as a 3* winner yesterday as they won in a franchise record breaking fashion 22-1. Now, the tables will be turned and the Reds will prove that all a 22-1 loss is is just that – one loss. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 61-40 mark for 32.6 units won since 2003. Play against home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season in July games. Reds are 14-7 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. Reds are a perfect 9-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where opposition scored 8 or more runs over the last 2 seasons.

3* Cincinnati Reds +136
 

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John Martin

Martin’s Tuesday MLB Bonus Play:

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies -150

The Phillies are finally getting their bats going after scoring 22 runs in a 22-1 victory over the Reds yesterday. Philly is 4-0 in their last 4 games, outscoring their opponents 35-4 during this ridiculous stretch. Now they throw their most consistent starter this season in J.A. Happ to make it 5 straight victories. Happ is 5-0 with a 2.96 ERA this season, including 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. Aaron Harang has been touched up on the road this season, going 1-5 with a 4.94 ERA away from home. Harang owns a 5.55 ERA in 8 career starts against Cincinnati, while Happ has never faced the Reds which really gives him an advantage tonight. The Reds are 1-10 in Harang’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 45-17 in their last 62 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Cash in with the Phillies as the favorite.

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -150
(Listing Happ Only)
 

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Tom Freese

Bonus Play

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds +136

Cincinnati is 35-16 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 9-3 their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Reds are 4-1 off a loss and they are 4-1 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. Off a deflating 22-1 loss last night we expect the Reds to play well tonight. Philadelphia is 3-8 their last 11 games vs. righty starters and they are 3-7 their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 2-5 in the last 7 starts made by Aaron Harang against them. The righthander has allowed 3 or less runs in 12 of his 17 starts this year.

PLAY ON CINCINNATI w/Harang
 

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Info Plays (Larry Cook)

InfoPlays Tuesday, July 7th Bonus Play:

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies -155

Reasons why the Rockies win:

1.) Colorado is 23-7 in their last 30 games overall. They should be nearly a -200 favorite tonight, but we’ll gladly take this discounted price as Tuesday’s Bonus Play. The Nationals are 9-46 in their last 55 road games against a right-handed starter and 10-43 in their last 53 road games against a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 2-7 in Zimmerman’s last 9 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts overall. The Rockies are 7-1 in Hammel’s last 8 starts overall.

2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (WASHINGTON) - allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 103-33 ML System hitting 75.7% over the last 5 seasons.
Bet the Rockies at home.

3* on Colorado Rockies -155
(Listing Hammel and Zimmerman)
 

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Hot lines: Tuesday's best MLB bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets (130, 8.5)

Just call them the New York Mess.

The Mess, sorry Mets, are banged up, beaten and barely hanging on in the race for a National League postseason spot.

Lineup regulars Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes are on the DL and not expected back anytime soon. The rotation is missing John Maine and Oliver Perez.

With no protection in the lineup, slugging third baseman David Wright is 5-for-40 with just three RBI and 14 strikeouts in his last 10 games.

"For us to score, I have to swing the bat better," Wright told the team's website.

And when Wright isn't hitting, the Mets don't hit. The Mets have lost eight of 10 and have been held to two runs or less seven times in that span. Over the weekend, the Mets were swept in Philadelphia, becoming the first team to be held without an extra-base hit in consecutive games at Citizens Bank Park.

On Tuesday, the Mets host the Dodgers, the best team in baseball. Los Angeles swept New York on the West Coast in mid-May, allowing just six runs in three games.

Pick: Los Angeles -134

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-230, 8.5)

When the Detroit Tigers were last at home, they were unbeatable. With Justin Verlander on the mound, they just might be untouchable.

After a 3-6 road trip, Detroit is back at Comerica Park, where it has not lost in over a month. The Tigers have won eight straight home games, all as the favorite, averaging 6.1 runs.

Detroit’s last loss at home was June 5, when Verlander allowed no runs in eight innings of a 2-1 setback to the Los Angeles Angels. That is the closest the right-hander has come to losing at home this season.

Verlander is arguably the best home pitcher in baseball. He is 4-0 with a 1.11 ERA, best among qualified starters in home games. In 40 2-3 innings, he has 51 strikeouts.

He matches up against the Kansas City Royals, who are 3-9 in their last dozen meetings with Verlander.

Pick: Detroit -230
 

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Black Widow

Widow’s MLB Free Pick for Tuesday:

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

New York Mets +127

The Mets are getting a great price at home here tonight against the L.A. Dodgers. You’ll rarely find New York playing in the role of the home dog, but when you do it’s certainly worth a look. The Mets are 21-10 (+10.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. New York tends to play well against the best starters in the league as well. The Mets are 57-26 (+31.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 3 seasons. The Mets are 6-1 in Pelfrey’s last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Also, New York plays well following an off day as they tend to use their rest wisely. New York is 59-28 in their last 87 games following an off day. Mike Pelfrey has been a dependable starter with a 6-3 record and 4.21 ERA this year. Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA at home. Clayton Kershaw’s 5.54 ERA on the road this year shows that he is still a young pitcher who doesn’t handle the pressure of the road atmosphere very well just yet. Take the Mets on the Money Line.

1* on New York Mets +127
(List Pelfrey)
 

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Jimmy Boyd

Bonus Play

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers -1½+100

The Tigers have dropped 3 in a row after giving away a lead to KC in the 8th last night. I expect them to be focused and ready to get back in the win column behind their ace tonight. Verlander has been sensational at home this season, going 4-0 with an ERA of just 1.11. Verlander is also a ridiculous 8-1 lifetime when starting against KC with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of 1.086. I expect the bats to back Verlander up as well, as Royals lefty Bruce Chen hasn't won a start since Oct. 2, 2005. Plus, the Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Detroit on the run line.

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -1.5 +100
 

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Tommy Gill

Bonus Play

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers u8.0 (-120)

I believe we are getting some good value in the under today with 2 quality pitchers that have fared well their last few games against the opposing team. Wainwright (8-5 3.32 ERA) vs. Gallardo (8-5 2.75 ERA) will be taking the hill today and both pitchers are pitching lights out recently. Wainwright has had 7 out of 10 quality starts giving up 3 ER or less in that span while Gallardo has had 9 out of 10 quality starts giving up 3 ER or less. In Gallardo only game against the Cards this season he gave up 2 hits and 0 runs in 8 innings looking un hittable in that game. Wainwright has faced the Brewers 2 times giving up 2 runs in 15 innings pitched. With both pitchers being on fire as of late I see a lot of value in this play tonight with two teams that have problems scoring runs and rely to heavy on their big hitters to get these runs with both teams going 5-1 in both pitchers last 3 to the under I see this as a great spot for a classic low scoring NL game with runs having to be manufactured against two pitchers that average against under 4 runs a game this year.

3 units Brewers and Cardinals Under 8 runs –120
 

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LT Profits

Bonus Play

Minnesota Twins (125)

C.C. Sabathia has been a disappointment for the most part for the New York Yankees, while Scott Bakers has been hot of the Minnesota Twins, making the Twins the call as decided home underdogs tonight.

Sabathia is just 7-5 despite a potent Yankees offense supporting him, and while his 3.85 ERA is acceptable, the Yanks were expecting better when they shelled out millions to sign him in the off season. Speaking of shelled, that is exactly what happened to C.C. in his last start when he surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits while lasting only 5.2 innings vs. the light-hitting Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium.

He now must contend with a Minnesota offense that has surprisingly hit better vs. left-handed pitching (.281) than vs. right-handed pitching (.266) this season. This difference has been even more pronounced at home (.299 vs. LHP, .276 vs. RHP), where the Twins are averaging a very good 5.45 runs per game.

Granted, Baker still sits with a modest 6-6 record and a less than mediocre 4.99 ERA for the season, but that does not give an indication of just how good he has been lately. Baker has now allowed three runs or less in six straight starts and in seven of his last eight outings. Besides, as bad as his record and ERA look, he does have an excellent overall WHIP of 1.14 on the whole year, suggesting that he has been pitching in tough luck.

Finally, Baker allowed exactly one run in each of his two career starts against the Yankees while allowing a grand total of just five hits in 12 innings, and a similar effort should be good enough to top Sabathia at a nice price at home tonight.

MLB Free Pick: Twins +125
 

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