Tuesday 05/12/09 service plays chatter /comps/ requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Dodgers +105 at PHILADELPHIA

Missed our FREE winner on Monday by half a point as the Cavs won but couldn't quite get the cover in Atlanta. Today we turn to the diamond for a comp play on the Dodgers in Philadelphia taking on the Phillies.

It hasn't been the loss of Manny Ramirez that has hurt the Dodgers lately, it's been the lack of a pitching staff that's hurt them. But today they've got the young Clayton Kershaw (1-2, 4.91 ERA) on the mound in Philadelphia and we expect him to deliver and his offense to score enough to get him a win.

Even without Manny, the Dodgers have scored 23 runs in their last four games, but they've lost three of those four. They opened the season with 13 straight home wins and they are actually still playing pretty well.

In Kershaw's latest outing, he allowed one run on four hits in five innings in a 10-3 victory over Washington on Wednesday

Chan Ho Park (0-1, 6.67 ERA) starts for the Phillies, who have dropped five of their last six games. It's the offense that has desserted Philadelphia, as they lost both weekend games to the Braves, including a 4-2 loss on Sunday as Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley were 0-for-13. The Phils are 0-10 when they score three runs or less.

Los Angeles hasn't had trouble putting runs on the board and they'll get enough for Kershaw tonight. Play the Dodgers in this one.

2♦ L.A. DODGERS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Boston at LA Angels 10:05pm
Play the LA Angels

The Angels are 19-7 in Weaver's last 26 home starts while the Red Sox are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings. Weaver's ERA is 2.66 and the team is 4-2 in his games while Masterson's ERA is 5.28 and the team is 2-2. Play the home team on Tuesday!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price

1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -140

The Giants have the big edge at home tonight with the 3-1 Cain on hill, who brings in an ERA of just 2.61. The Giants are 11-4 at home this season and have now won 8 straight against the Nats. Washington is only 6-28 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons, 9-44 against the money line after 4 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons, and 5-24 against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Take the Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick Parsons

Detroit Redwings @ Anaheim Ducks +120

Anaheim fought back from a 3-2 series deficit to take a Game 7 win over Calgary in 2006 and avoided home-ice elimination with a Game 5 victory against Dallas last season. "This group has shown it can handle these type of situations," Anaheim goalie Jonas Hiller said. "At the end of the regular season we pretty much had to win every game to make the playoffs. We are used to the situation." Look for ANAHEIM to improve to 10-5 (+4.1 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous game!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

San Francisco is 7-3 in the last 10 home starts made by Matt Cain and they are 7-0 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Cain has allowed 2 or less runs in five of his six starts this year. The Giants are 19-7 their last 26 home games vs. righty starters. Washington is 16-35 their last 51 games as underdogs and they are 13-40 vs. winning teams. The Nationals are 15-48 their last 63 games as road underdogs and they are 16-35 on Tuesday. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO w/Cain

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Alexander

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: San Diego Padres

Jake Peavy has been red hot in his last two starts posing a 1.20 ERA. The Cubs have struggeled against righthanders this season scoring only 4 runs per game. Rich Harden has been a bit of a dissapointment posting a 4.83 ERA in his six starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Cincinnati Reds +180

Now Dan Haren of the Arizona Diamondbacks may be one of the best pitchers in the National League, but his team is playing so bad right now that we feel compelled to grab this fat price with the Cincinnati Reds.

The Diamondbacks are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, and the fact that Haren is just 3-3 despite owning a 1.84 ERA and a fantastic 0.86 WHIP should give you an idea of how bad the Arizona offense has been for the most part. The Snakes have a woeful team batting average of .234 while averaging an anorexic 3.79 runs per game. Yes, they have looked a bit better the last two games, but we do not trust them to keep that going vs. Reds starter Micah Owings tonight.

This is not because Owings is a stud, because he is not, but it is because he came up through the Arizona organization and this is the first year he has pitched for another franchise. Owings did have some good moments while with the Snakes, and he has the advantage of knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the Arizona batters first hand, giving him a huge advantage in his first start vs. his former teammates from last year.

Besides, as great as Haren is, he has allowed at least three runs in all three of his career starts vs. Cincinnati, and when you combine the Diamondbacks offensive struggles with the knowledge Owings has of that lineup, Haren would have to be better than that to cash this big chalk ticket.

Pick: Reds +180

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -134

I'll back the Yankee killer, Roy Halladay, in this one as he is 15-5 when starting against the NY Yanks with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.119 in his career. In fact, the Blue Jays are 10-1 in Halladay's last 11 home starts vs. the Yankees and 20-7 in Halladay's last 27 starts vs. the Yankees period. I also expect the Jays to crush former teammate A.J. Burnett, who has struggled with a 7.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays are a ridiculous 50-15 in Halladay's last 65 home starts. Bet the Jays tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dennis Macklin

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Tonight's Bonus Play is on Roy Halladay and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are off to a white-hot MLB co-best 22 wins and a lot of that success has come behind the arm of ace Roy Halladay. "Doc" is 6-1 already with a 3.29 ERA and has owned the Bronx Bombers in the past going 15-5 and 2.83 in 30 LT starts. AJ Burnett faces ex-mates for the first time after taking the loot and has been 2-0 5.26 including a 7.50 badge in last three. Jays give Burnett a rude welcome home. Take Toronto.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocketman

St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: St Louis Cardinals

St Louis comes in with a nice 20-12 record on the season while Pittsburgh is only 12-19 this year. St Louis is 11-3 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 1-6 this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. Pittsburgh is 1-9 in May games this year and have lost 8 in a row. St Louis is scoring 5.4 runs per game overall this year. Wellmeyer is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA on the road this year. Wellmeyer is 4-1 overall vs Pittsburgh since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jorge Gonzalez

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Over 198

The Rockets will be going to a smaller line up with You Ming on the bench and the Lakers offense has bounced back in the playoffs with a vengeance when they are held to a 100 points or less. In their 88-68 lose to Utah, the Lakers scored 108 points and in game two of this series they scored 11 points after losing game 100-92. Aaron Brooks has proven to be a problem for the Laker's guards and should be able to push the ball up the court, especially against Derek Fisher. Take this game to go over the posted total. Jorge has released his Odds makers Mistake of the Year in the NBA in tonight's action!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Florida Marlins +145

The fish are showing excellent value tonight when you consider how they have feasted on left handed starting pitching. They will gladly welcome the 1-4 Manny Parra to the hill as they are 8-3 against southpaw starters this season and 12-4 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Have to like Florida's chances following an off-day as well as it is 7-1 in its last 8 games following an off day. The Brewers are now just 3-13 in Parra's last 16 starts so I'll back the Fish on the road tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon

Boston at LA ANGELS -125

Both teams are playing well, but you've got to like the Angels behind the red-hot Jered Weaver in this one. He's 2-0 with a lockdown 2.05 ERA over his L3 starts, incl. his first career complete game when he dominated the Blue Jays Thursday, allowing 1 run on 3 hits, while striking out 8! Although his career numbers against Boston aren't great (2-2, 4.46 ERA in 7 starts), Weaver has been a beast at Angel Stadium this season, going 3-0 with a miniscule 1.21 ERA!

Opposing Weaver is the Red Sox Justin Masterson, who's underachieved in trying to fill Dice-K's shoes, going 2-2 with a 5.48 ERA in 4 starts this season. He's been especially bad over his last 2 starts, allowing 12 runs in 12 1/3 innings, getting knocked around by the Rays and Indians in back-to-back efforts. Also, although he hasn't started against the Halos this year, he does have one ugly relief effort against them, back on April 10th he allowed 3 runs on 4 hits over 1 inning!

Finally, a couple things to consider, including the fact the Red Sox are just 4-11 in their last 15 meetings with the Angels. While the Sox are an excellent 13-4 at Fenway, their 7-8 road record is hardly impressive. Also, the Halos have been damn good at home with Weaver on the hill, going 19-7 in his L26 home starts! As a final note, Boston's offense takes a noticeable dip on the road, batting .244 against righties, and with neither Youkilis (questionable) or Pedroia (doubtful) likely to play, things do not bode well for the Red Sox in this one. In the end, look for Weaver to thoroughly outpitch Masterson, as the Angels win their 5th straight Tuesday night!

Take the LA Angels behind Weaver over Boston and Masterson in this MLB match up.

3♦ LA ANGELS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

New York at TORONTO -140

He's a Yankee killer, and we'll side with him at home tonight. Roy Halladay has been lights out for much of the season, and comes into this one after dominating his last start.

He absolutely shut down the Angels last Wednesday, when he tossed eight strong innings for the road victory in Anaheim. The former Cy Young winner blanked the Halos for seven frames before allowing one run, but was impressive in scattering six hits and recording six strikeouts, while inducing 13 groundouts.

Why is that significant? Well, that's 19 outs that never left the infield ... or, in regards to innings, you're looking at 6-1/3 frames worth of outs that were either on strikes or smothered by infielders.

Halladay's six wins in seven starts marks the fastest he's reached that many victories in a season in his career. Now he gets AL East-rival New York in the Rogers Center, and I'm confident in laying this price tonight. Over 32 career games against New York, the right-hander is 15-5 with a 2.86 ERA.

In 2008 he went 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Bombers.

Easy winner here for you.

1♦ BLUE JAYS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

We come through last night as the Nuggets and Mavericks hit well Over the Total. We’re making it two in a row tonight as we’re taking the Under in the Rockets-Lakers matchup in Los Angeles.

The number for tonight is set at 198 points and just like in Game 4 the Under will come in.

Consider that in their last six meetings overall - all since March 11 - the Under is on a 4-2 run and has come in 2 of the last 3 games in Los Angeles. In that 6-game stretch these two have totaled, on average, 193.5 points per. In their last 3 games in L.A. the teams have totaled, on average, 191.6 points per game.

Keep in mind also that the Under is on a 6-2 run for the Rockets and it has come in 5 of the Lakers last 7 games overall.

Tonight, the defense will dictate the game as these two play Under the total. Take the Under in this one tonight.

3♦ ROCKETS-LAKERS UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Came up just short with Monday’s Bonus Play on the Cavaliers, who won by 10 but were laying 10½. Still, I’m on freebie runs of 27-17, 18-11 and 6-3. For Tuesday, we’ll stay in the NBA playoffs and back the Magic plus the points at Boston.

There’s something very fishy about this pointspread. The last time these teams squared off in Boston, the Celtics hammered the Magic 112-94 as a four-point favorite in Game 2. Then on Sunday, Boston evened the series again, this time with a 95-94 buzzer-beating victory in Orlando. So why are the Celtics, back at home, such a short favorite tonight – especially when considering they’ve covered 13 of the last 17 against the Magic in Boston?

I’ve got a couple of theories that make sense. First of all, Boston has won consecutive games just once in these playoffs (Games 2 and 3 against Chicago) and it has covered the spread in consecutive games just once (Games 6 and 7 against Chicago). Also, of the Celtics’ 11 playoff games to date, a whopping seven have been decided by five points or less, including six by three points or fewer.

Meanwhile, since opening the playoffs with four straight non-covers (all as a favorite) against Philadelphia, the Magic have gotten the money in four of their last six contests. Orlando also continues to sport tremendous underdog numbers (36-16-3 last 55 as a pup, 14-5 last 19 as a road underdog and 44-18-1 last 63 when catching less than five points). On the other hand, the Celtics have failed to cover in seven of their last 22 at home (all laying points) and 11 of their last 14 Eastern Conference semifinal playoff games.

Throw in the fact that the underdog and road team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these squads, and I’ll take my chances with the Magic, who if not for Big Baby Davis’s last-second heroics in Game 4 in Orlando would have a commanding 3-1 lead in this series. Take the points.

4? ORLANDO MAGIC

 

[Peaches08]

Robert Ferringo

4.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-135) over N.Y. Yankees
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

2-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-115) over Pittsburgh

2-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-110) over L.A. Dodgers

2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-135) over Detroit

1.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (-145) over Seattle


Today's Totals

2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 Tampa Bay at Baltimore

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets



Who follows this guy, can you telll me how good he is. Thanks guys

I've been following him this MLB season. He is up 94u so far this season and I've a decent amount of money so far. The common theme so far with him seems to be if you have a losing day it's only a couple of units if any. But if you have a winning day it's usually 5u or more. A lot of bets per day but I think he's good.(<)<

 

[newty81]

Larry Ness Tuesday

9 Star Perfect Storm - MLB

Toronto

Las Vegas Insider - MLB

Minnesota

Weekly Wipeout Winner - NBA

Celtics

Bailout Blowout

LA Angels

Hi Brady...Appreciate the plays! -- was wondering if I could get his analysis? Thanks!

 

[nikeairx]

Does Anyone Have the YWN crew records??

 

[captaink]

Anybody got wunderdog they have three 5 stars tonight

thanks