OK let's get this done....the entire card as I see it. I'm putting my plays up top with the descriptions below (Sorry it's last minute guys...I couldn't get to posting sooner):
2 UNITS
Chattanooga +8.5 -107
1 UNIT
St. John's +22.5
UConn/St. John's OVER 135
Michigan -2
Michigan St/Michigan OVER 137
Davidson -1 -107
Pitt -7 -107
Rider +3.5 -107
NC/VA Over 162
Auburn -4
Chattanooga ML +300
UConn (-22/135) at St. John's
We all know about the Storm's problems after the suspension but they weren't very good before it either. Both of these teams are very poor ATS teams (Huskies 8-13-1 vs Storm 7-12). Storm have covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and the home team has won 8 of the last 10 outright. Add to that the over has hit 8 of the last 10 in this series as well and there is a lot to look at. Huskies have also failed to cover the last 4 ATS while the Storm have covered the last 2. It's worth it to me to play the Johnnies and the Over.
Michigan State (+2/137) at Michigan
I really like the Wolverines tonight. They got hammered in East Lansing by 17 points and they have only one loss at home in Big 10 play by 2 points to Indiana. They've beaten Purdue, Iowa, Wisky, PSU and Northwestern at home already and they have every reason in the world to slam the Spartans who are 2-7 ATS on the road. The other play I like is the Over 138 with the Spartans 6-2 O/U on the road and the Wolverines 5-2 O/U at home. I just don't think the Spartans are as sharp defensively on the road and I think the Wolves are going to ride momentum tonight. Play on Michigan and the Over.
Davidson (-1 -107/141.5) at App State
How Davidson doesn't cover this will be beyond me. I know they're only 2-10 SU on the road but App State is not a very unfriendly place to play. The 'Eers are just 2-6-1 ATS at home this season and haven't won at home period since January 5th. Davidson's 2 wins on the road have actually come in their last 2 road games against Furman and the Citadel and were very competitive against Georgia Southern and ETSU the 2 games before that losing by a combined 7 points. I also like that Davidson has covered 6 of 7 ATS overall. I think they win going away tonight.
Chattanooga +8.5 -107/155 at ETSU
Evenly matched teams who just played an 82-80 thriller on Feb 9th which ETSU won covering as a 1.5 dog. Chattanooga 7-2 ATS on the road and only 3-7 ATS at home so I think they will bring their A game to revenge the close loss. ETSU has won the last 2 but Chatt owned them in the previous 6 and both of ETSU's wins have been by less than 8 pts. These two teams are way too evenly matched for either to get 8 and I really like this one...enough to be a double play.
Pitt -7 -107/126 at Georgetown
I can't ignore the fact that Pitt has been so good on the road and Georgetown just isn't very good period. GT has been losing SU and ATS to teams that are underacheiving and not playing close to the level the Panthers are playing. The last 4 losses to Syracuse, St. John's and Temple are proof positive that the Hoyas are not a very good basketball team. Pitt is on another level and they should cover the number with ease tonight.
Rider (+3.5 -107/140.5) at Iona
Are you kidding me...Iona is a favorite? 2-5-1 at home ATS and 6-13-2 ATS overall and they are missing most of their offense with suspensions for the remainder of the season. I never thought I would see them as a fav the rest of the way but here we are. Rider isn't that good ATS as it is but no way can I pass up getting points against Iona. This one is close to 2 units if Rider wasn't so bad ATS.
North Carolina (-6/162) at Virginia
Over over over. North Carolina 13-4 O/U this season and 5-2 O/U on the road. Virginia 8-5 O/U overall and 4-2 O/U at home. Over has hit the last 3 and 5 of the last 7 in this series. I actually think VA is a value play if the line keeps going up like it has but I am happy playing the trends in this one.
Auburn (-4/132) vs Alabama
This is mostly an opinion play but I love Auburn here at home against a Bama team that just pulled a huge upset in Starkville. The home team is 10-0 SU L10 in this series and Auburn has covered 7 of 10 against Bama (Bama has the last 2 though). Tigers outscoring their opponents by 14 points/game at home while Bama has been outscored by about 6 a game on the road. I think even the Tide are susceptible to a letdown and the Tigers would love to give it to them.
2 UNITS
Chattanooga +8.5 -107
1 UNIT
St. John's +22.5
UConn/St. John's OVER 135
Michigan -2
Michigan St/Michigan OVER 137
Davidson -1 -107
Pitt -7 -107
Rider +3.5 -107
NC/VA Over 162
Auburn -4
Chattanooga ML +300
UConn (-22/135) at St. John's
We all know about the Storm's problems after the suspension but they weren't very good before it either. Both of these teams are very poor ATS teams (Huskies 8-13-1 vs Storm 7-12). Storm have covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and the home team has won 8 of the last 10 outright. Add to that the over has hit 8 of the last 10 in this series as well and there is a lot to look at. Huskies have also failed to cover the last 4 ATS while the Storm have covered the last 2. It's worth it to me to play the Johnnies and the Over.
Michigan State (+2/137) at Michigan
I really like the Wolverines tonight. They got hammered in East Lansing by 17 points and they have only one loss at home in Big 10 play by 2 points to Indiana. They've beaten Purdue, Iowa, Wisky, PSU and Northwestern at home already and they have every reason in the world to slam the Spartans who are 2-7 ATS on the road. The other play I like is the Over 138 with the Spartans 6-2 O/U on the road and the Wolverines 5-2 O/U at home. I just don't think the Spartans are as sharp defensively on the road and I think the Wolves are going to ride momentum tonight. Play on Michigan and the Over.
Davidson (-1 -107/141.5) at App State
How Davidson doesn't cover this will be beyond me. I know they're only 2-10 SU on the road but App State is not a very unfriendly place to play. The 'Eers are just 2-6-1 ATS at home this season and haven't won at home period since January 5th. Davidson's 2 wins on the road have actually come in their last 2 road games against Furman and the Citadel and were very competitive against Georgia Southern and ETSU the 2 games before that losing by a combined 7 points. I also like that Davidson has covered 6 of 7 ATS overall. I think they win going away tonight.
Chattanooga +8.5 -107/155 at ETSU
Evenly matched teams who just played an 82-80 thriller on Feb 9th which ETSU won covering as a 1.5 dog. Chattanooga 7-2 ATS on the road and only 3-7 ATS at home so I think they will bring their A game to revenge the close loss. ETSU has won the last 2 but Chatt owned them in the previous 6 and both of ETSU's wins have been by less than 8 pts. These two teams are way too evenly matched for either to get 8 and I really like this one...enough to be a double play.
Pitt -7 -107/126 at Georgetown
I can't ignore the fact that Pitt has been so good on the road and Georgetown just isn't very good period. GT has been losing SU and ATS to teams that are underacheiving and not playing close to the level the Panthers are playing. The last 4 losses to Syracuse, St. John's and Temple are proof positive that the Hoyas are not a very good basketball team. Pitt is on another level and they should cover the number with ease tonight.
Rider (+3.5 -107/140.5) at Iona
Are you kidding me...Iona is a favorite? 2-5-1 at home ATS and 6-13-2 ATS overall and they are missing most of their offense with suspensions for the remainder of the season. I never thought I would see them as a fav the rest of the way but here we are. Rider isn't that good ATS as it is but no way can I pass up getting points against Iona. This one is close to 2 units if Rider wasn't so bad ATS.
North Carolina (-6/162) at Virginia
Over over over. North Carolina 13-4 O/U this season and 5-2 O/U on the road. Virginia 8-5 O/U overall and 4-2 O/U at home. Over has hit the last 3 and 5 of the last 7 in this series. I actually think VA is a value play if the line keeps going up like it has but I am happy playing the trends in this one.
Auburn (-4/132) vs Alabama
This is mostly an opinion play but I love Auburn here at home against a Bama team that just pulled a huge upset in Starkville. The home team is 10-0 SU L10 in this series and Auburn has covered 7 of 10 against Bama (Bama has the last 2 though). Tigers outscoring their opponents by 14 points/game at home while Bama has been outscored by about 6 a game on the road. I think even the Tide are susceptible to a letdown and the Tigers would love to give it to them.
