Troy vs Arkansas State 12/3/2011

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Arkansas State is a heavy favorite winning 83% of simulations over Troy. Ryan Aplin is averaging 308 passing yards and 2.1 TDs per simulation and Derek Lawson is projected for 40 rushing yards and a 27% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 17% of simulations where Troy wins, Corey Robinson averages 2.74 TD passes vs 0.92 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.3 TDs to 1.3 interceptions. Shawn Southward averages 67 rushing yards and 0.74 rushing TDs when Troy wins and 56 yards and 0.37 TDs in losses. Arkansas State has a 49% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 90% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARKST -13 --- Over/Under line is 57

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