Troy vs Arkansas 9/17/2011

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Arkansas is a heavy favorite winning 91% of simulations over Troy. Tyler Wilson is averaging 403 passing yards and 4 TDs per simulation and Ronnie Wingo is projected for 71 rushing yards and a 15% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 9% of simulations where Troy wins, Corey Robinson averages 2.03 TD passes vs 0.67 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.91 TDs to 0.99 interceptions. Shawn Southward averages 87 rushing yards and 0.93 rushing TDs when Troy wins and 76 yards and 0.5 TDs in losses. Arkansas has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 95% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARK -23.5

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