I was high on NCST last year and made a lot of money off of this team. I really don't see how things have changed that much with this team or the ACC in general. As usual, it will be a very competetive conference, and I don't see a team from this conference that will have any less than 2 losses on the season. NCST will need to get an upset or two on the road. But I think they have as good of a chance as anybody. But from an ATS perspective, after winning 9 games ATS last year, i don't believe they'll do that well this year. So i won't be quite as quick to pull the trigger on NCST this season.
2* NC St o7 -140
1* PSU o9.5 -130
0.5*/1.6* Colt McCoy Heisman +320
NC St same as above, but w/ 2 FCS opponents they basically have to go 5-5 for me to push...i have them going tops 10-2 and bottom 7-5 but reallistically i expect them to win 9 games (4-0/5-3)...bottom line, they were 6-6 last yr w/ as many problems and injuries that you could have and are significantly deeper and better this yr imo
PSU same as above, along w/ the fact that pre-season they are favored in all 12 games...they were one pt away from a perfect sesaon and won all but one of their games by DD and their avg margin of victory in conference was almost 23 ppg...they totally dominated their conference, outgaining opponents by almost 125 ypg...even if they come back to the pack a little they still have more 1st team b10 players than anyone else in conference...4-0 ooc means a 5-3 conference record is needed to lose...that's middle of the pack, which is clearly not what the personnel indicates
I love the McCoy play and would put even more on it if not for the fact that even the slightest injury which could knock him out for even one or two games would probably ruin this play.
-No way Bradford wins b2b heismans...first of all, he would have to have a better season than last yr to win it, and w/out 4 o-line starters and 2 of top 3 WRs the chance of him topping 50 TDs is highly doubtful imo...defense should also be better so need for shoot-outs could be diminished
-Tebow is a legend, but i would expect gators, w/ a dominating Defense and the best special teams in the country, to score at least one non-offensive TD each game, which actually takes opportunities away from Tebow to score...with that same suffocating defense, if UF is up 35-3 middle of the 3rd qtr Meyer could pull Tebow for Brantley, who Meyer has stated needs to get more playing time...case in point last yr vs Vandy, UF up 35-0 at half, scored 1st possesion of 2nd half to go up 42-0 and Tebow was gone after that...
-McCoy has the weakest defense of the 3, has a chip on his shoulder from last yr, and could be in "run-up the score" mode all year due to BCS situation from last yr...also, being the only one of the three who hasn't won, i would expect a media love fest to get him one, a classic "life-time achievement award" that voters tend to fall in to...i think he's in the best situation to put up huge numbers along w/ the sentimental vote, and on top of it he's got the best price!!!
1* PSU o9.5 -130
0.5*/1.6* Colt McCoy Heisman +320
NC St same as above, but w/ 2 FCS opponents they basically have to go 5-5 for me to push...i have them going tops 10-2 and bottom 7-5 but reallistically i expect them to win 9 games (4-0/5-3)...bottom line, they were 6-6 last yr w/ as many problems and injuries that you could have and are significantly deeper and better this yr imo
PSU same as above, along w/ the fact that pre-season they are favored in all 12 games...they were one pt away from a perfect sesaon and won all but one of their games by DD and their avg margin of victory in conference was almost 23 ppg...they totally dominated their conference, outgaining opponents by almost 125 ypg...even if they come back to the pack a little they still have more 1st team b10 players than anyone else in conference...4-0 ooc means a 5-3 conference record is needed to lose...that's middle of the pack, which is clearly not what the personnel indicates
I love the McCoy play and would put even more on it if not for the fact that even the slightest injury which could knock him out for even one or two games would probably ruin this play.
-No way Bradford wins b2b heismans...first of all, he would have to have a better season than last yr to win it, and w/out 4 o-line starters and 2 of top 3 WRs the chance of him topping 50 TDs is highly doubtful imo...defense should also be better so need for shoot-outs could be diminished
-Tebow is a legend, but i would expect gators, w/ a dominating Defense and the best special teams in the country, to score at least one non-offensive TD each game, which actually takes opportunities away from Tebow to score...with that same suffocating defense, if UF is up 35-3 middle of the 3rd qtr Meyer could pull Tebow for Brantley, who Meyer has stated needs to get more playing time...case in point last yr vs Vandy, UF up 35-0 at half, scored 1st possesion of 2nd half to go up 42-0 and Tebow was gone after that...
-McCoy has the weakest defense of the 3, has a chip on his shoulder from last yr, and could be in "run-up the score" mode all year due to BCS situation from last yr...also, being the only one of the three who hasn't won, i would expect a media love fest to get him one, a classic "life-time achievement award" that voters tend to fall in to...i think he's in the best situation to put up huge numbers along w/ the sentimental vote, and on top of it he's got the best price!!!
Penn State over 9.5 is one of my plays and to me, just giving money away. Even if they should lose to Ohio State and to Michigan State on the road,who else beats them. Certainly not anyone on their made to order from the bakery non-con schedule, and probably not anyone else in the alleged Big 10, which is really the Mediocre 10.
N.C. State over 7 is a bit more tricky for me. Even if they win 3 out of their first 4 games, they still have to win 5 ACC games. Away games at Wake, Florida State, and Va. Tech are going to be very difficult. Home games against Clemson and UNC are no gimmies either. They do have a nice balance of players returning on both sides of the ball, and should be improved. The problem is that the entire ACC should be improved.
N.C. State over 7 is a bit more tricky for me. Even if they win 3 out of their first 4 games, they still have to win 5 ACC games. Away games at Wake, Florida State, and Va. Tech are going to be very difficult. Home games against Clemson and UNC are no gimmies either. They do have a nice balance of players returning on both sides of the ball, and should be improved. The problem is that the entire ACC should be improved.
They could lose all their games...
and they could also win all their games
obviously i feel they won't go 4-6 against the acc and S Car/Pitt (which is 6 home games right there)
besides ignoring my pleas at the beginning of this thread (don't post "Team A is gonna lose to Team B...") i can't figure out the point of your post...
First of all, you can say that about any team and any future...mccoy, bradford, tebow, etc...
secondly, mike glennon, the #2 qb recruit in the nation last yr, was redshirted...he played a lot in the spring game and looked great (Wilson plays on the baseball team so had limited play in spring) and will definitely play a lot in those 2 early games vs FCS
unlike last yr, while i hope it doesn't happen, i'm not concerned at all w/ an injury to Wilson, and in fact, NC St has the best QB "unit" in the ACC, as Glennon would start for over half the teams in the conference
Holy shit, Trent with 3 win totals plays? R U ok man?
Since Phil Steele gets so many hate posts at rx, thought I would plug his 2009 NFL annual.
Rec'd a copy yesterday and I must say it's MUCH improved from prior years.
NC St looks like 8-4 maybe even 9-3 this season. Very managable 8-game home schedule.
Since Phil Steele gets so many hate posts at rx, thought I would plug his 2009 NFL annual.
Rec'd a copy yesterday and I must say it's MUCH improved from prior years.
NC St looks like 8-4 maybe even 9-3 this season. Very managable 8-game home schedule.
fwiw, I have read more people posting here about how much hype Oklahoma State is getting this summer than I've read people hyping them.
Always strange when that type of thing happens. It's similar to when the faders here on football nights outnumber the people they are fading.
:think2:
Always strange when that type of thing happens. It's similar to when the faders here on football nights outnumber the people they are fading.
:think2:
1* S Car u6.5 -105
0.5* USC u10 +115
two teams where my analysis from the spring was only confirmed by the fall camps...
S Car is not as good as last yr's teams imo, but would have to achieve the same record (7-5) for me to lose...i have them favored in only 4 games this season...could easily see them going 2-6 in conference, not sure whether their start to the season (@ nc st, @ uga, ole miss wk 4) or the end of their season (@ tenn, @ ark, florida, clemson) is tougher, but might even win my wager on those 7 games alone...!!
USC, also not as good but would need same record as last yr to lose, has the toughest road schedule in the nation imo (6 games, 2 B2B's, 4 of 5 on road, 2 sets of 3 of 4 on the road) and currently face four ranked teams on the road...in the past when trojans have replaced star QB they did so with a player with at least some experience, but not this time, all the while doing this with a brand new defense...they might actually have to match scores w/ teams this season, and not sure if true fresh is up to it...lighter play for me bc of one of the best o-lines in country, as well as the fact that it is USC...!! i have 2 nat'l title futures played on teams they face (cal, ND) so there is a little more on the line than just the 0.5* on season total...might not win (9-3), but can't see myself losing (11-1)
good luck
0.5* USC u10 +115
two teams where my analysis from the spring was only confirmed by the fall camps...
S Car is not as good as last yr's teams imo, but would have to achieve the same record (7-5) for me to lose...i have them favored in only 4 games this season...could easily see them going 2-6 in conference, not sure whether their start to the season (@ nc st, @ uga, ole miss wk 4) or the end of their season (@ tenn, @ ark, florida, clemson) is tougher, but might even win my wager on those 7 games alone...!!
USC, also not as good but would need same record as last yr to lose, has the toughest road schedule in the nation imo (6 games, 2 B2B's, 4 of 5 on road, 2 sets of 3 of 4 on the road) and currently face four ranked teams on the road...in the past when trojans have replaced star QB they did so with a player with at least some experience, but not this time, all the while doing this with a brand new defense...they might actually have to match scores w/ teams this season, and not sure if true fresh is up to it...lighter play for me bc of one of the best o-lines in country, as well as the fact that it is USC...!! i have 2 nat'l title futures played on teams they face (cal, ND) so there is a little more on the line than just the 0.5* on season total...might not win (9-3), but can't see myself losing (11-1)
good luck
