Trentmoney 2009 CFB Futures Thread

[trentmoney]

Curious about one thing Trent.

Have you looked over the list of teams with nice payouts that have the easiest schedules? Beyond UF who plays almost nobody away, and the shitty price on them, who else has it easy? Often the obvious doesn't work out that way. Like you said, the SEC might eat itself up and the B-12 could easily end up with a 1- or 2-loss champ which could leave the field wide open. (I just hope we are spared another Ohio St. melee.)

The last time I can remember anything real nice hitting for me was when I bet St. Louis in the NFL when Curt Warner first landed the starting job and then went on to beat the Titans in the SB. I got them at 40-1 but I could have gotten 80. I have become disenchanted with the NFL since then, ergo I am here and I like it.

$20 here, $50 there. One unit can go a long ways covering the bases, and if it pays off in dimes, hell it's worth the try.

(By the way, I'd also list Oregon at 50-1 but I hesitate because they have one mutha of a gauntlet to survive at the start of the season with a pretty green OL. If those tough games were played a bit later in the year I'd give them a much better shot. However... it's not unthinkable that they could overcome an early loss... provided that the rest of the Pac-10 does well in their OOC games. Kind of a big IF once again this year. I doubt any more east coast writers will stay up to watch the WC games. None of them could make a living being a tout.)

2nd part first:
I was high on oregon bc they play both cal and usc at home and they only have 4 pac10 roadies...but i'm not as high on blount as others probably are-i was at the usc game last year and maybe that's why...he's seems a little slow through the hole. i thought johnson was a better fit for that offense...when you combine his numbers from usc game as well as vs cal (13 att, 1 yd!!) you can see why i'm a little down on him...add in his weight problems this offseason, his standing on the team, and the question marks on o-line and that swayed me away from them. also, cal has a better defense imo so i always side in that direction.

to answer the first part of your question:

0.1* ND 40-1 to win 4* sportsbook

was going to wait and just play season win total but w/ greek offering 20-1 i figured i would make the move on this future now
their schedule is ridiculously easy, they have the one statement game to grab attention (usc), and the media loves them and if it's a year where no other team grabs the headlines on the field the potential for a meyer/weis NC game matchup will be too much for the pollsters to ignore
3rd yr qb and veteran o-line combined w/ tremendous talent at skill positions will make this offense nearly unstoppable imo...and i hate ND, bet against them all the time but putting all my emotions aside they could finish 11-1 very easily.

also, i have usc pegged for 2 losses btw roadies @ ohio st, cal, oregon, and ND...if their total is 10.5 or 11 i will take the under...so having 2 teams from this group (cal and ND) on my futures plays goes along with my thoughts on how this season might play out

 

[UoweDucks]

2nd part first:
I was high on oregon bc they play both cal and usc at home and they only have 4 pac10 roadies...but i'm not as high on blount as others probably are-i was at the usc game last year and maybe that's why...he's seems a little slow through the hole. i thought johnson was a better fit for that offense...when you combine his numbers from usc game as well as vs cal (13 att, 1 yd!!) you can see why i'm a little down on him...add in his weight problems this offseason, his standing on the team, and the question marks on o-line and that swayed me away from them. also, cal has a better defense imo so i always side in that direction.

to answer the first part of your question:

0.1* ND 40-1 to win 4* sportsbook

was going to wait and just play season win total but w/ greek offering 20-1 i figured i would make the move on this future now
their schedule is ridiculously easy, they have the one statement game to grab attention (usc), and the media loves them and if it's a year where no other team grabs the headlines on the field the potential for a meyer/weis NC game matchup will be too much for the pollsters to ignore
3rd yr qb and veteran o-line combined w/ tremendous talent at skill positions will make this offense nearly unstoppable imo...and i hate ND, bet against them all the time but putting all my emotions aside they could finish 11-1 very easily.

also, i have usc pegged for 2 losses btw roadies @ ohio st, cal, oregon, and ND...if their total is 10.5 or 11 i will take the under...so having 2 teams from this group (cal and ND) on my futures plays goes along with my thoughts on how this season might play out

Trent,
Good stuff.
I may have read over it but where do you get these odds. I looked at sportsbook.com but can't find any. If its not too much trouble could you list the P10 futures?

As for ORegon/blount, you picked a bad game to watch him USC's speed at LB completely shut down the ducks running lanes. As for CAL that game was played in a monsoon. He's got legit 1st round skills but it may be that Oregon's biggest threat will be Lamichael James who is a step faster than Jeremiah Johnson and has excellent laterall speed he should be full go by fall camp.

 

[GoSooners]

2nd part first:
I was high on oregon bc they play both cal and usc at home and they only have 4 pac10 roadies...but i'm not as high on blount as others probably are-i was at the usc game last year and maybe that's why...he's seems a little slow through the hole. i thought johnson was a better fit for that offense...when you combine his numbers from usc game as well as vs cal (13 att, 1 yd!!) you can see why i'm a little down on him...add in his weight problems this offseason, his standing on the team, and the question marks on o-line and that swayed me away from them. also, cal has a better defense imo so i always side in that direction.

to answer the first part of your question:

0.1* ND 40-1 to win 4* sportsbook

was going to wait and just play season win total but w/ greek offering 20-1 i figured i would make the move on this future now
their schedule is ridiculously easy, they have the one statement game to grab attention (usc), and the media loves them and if it's a year where no other team grabs the headlines on the field the potential for a meyer/weis NC game matchup will be too much for the pollsters to ignore
3rd yr qb and veteran o-line combined w/ tremendous talent at skill positions will make this offense nearly unstoppable imo...and i hate ND, bet against them all the time but putting all my emotions aside they could finish 11-1 very easily.

also, i have usc pegged for 2 losses btw roadies @ ohio st, cal, oregon, and ND...if their total is 10.5 or 11 i will take the under...so having 2 teams from this group (cal and ND) on my futures plays goes along with my thoughts on how this season might play out

Trent...I look at this from a realistic standpoint. Like you said, it's about defense winning championships. There's a reason why Okie State and Oregon are in the high odds category to win the NC...Defense. If you want to know why OU hasn't won the NC in their last 3 tries it's been their defense. It was just good enough to get them to the big dance. Just not good enough to get them over the hump. Florida in 2008, USC in 2004 and LSU in 2003 all had better defenses than OU. Okie State might very well have the best offense in the country. Oregon and USC might be right there with them. They may all 3 be good enough to win their respective conferences. But unless there is a series of unfortuante events for all of the good defensive teams, none of these teams win the NC. The only teams that I think have a realistic chance to win it are Florida, Texas, OU and Virginia Tech. With LSU and Georgia being possible outsiders depending on the improvement of their defenses.. I know you aren't high on VT. But they will be improved this year from the very young team they were last season. And none of us know for sure how much more. They are in a conference that is very winnable. And if like you said one of those unfortunate events happen like a Tebow, McCoy or Bradford getting hurt, then their odds go way up if they end up facing a USC or an Ohio State in the NC game. As for Cal, I'm still pretty torn between them and Oregon giving USC the biggest fight for the conference title. I would prefer to have those very good linebackers back for Cal. But they do have a very realistic chance of winning their conference considering who USC lost on defense. Which alone makes me rule out USC for NC hopes. I could be wrong. But it's asking alot for a defense to come together that quick, while also dealing with breaking in a new QB. I think 2 losses are very possible with this team. And I really haven't felt this way about USC since Carroll has been there. So right now, if there is a team that I'm seriously looking at for their good odds combined with the defense, it's VT.

 

[trentmoney]

Trent,
Good stuff.
I may have read over it but where do you get these odds. I looked at sportsbook.com but can't find any. If its not too much trouble could you list the P10 futures?

As for ORegon/blount, you picked a bad game to watch him USC's speed at LB completely shut down the ducks running lanes. As for CAL that game was played in a monsoon. He's got legit 1st round skills but it may be that Oregon's biggest threat will be Lamichael James who is a step faster than Jeremiah Johnson and has excellent laterall speed he should be full go by fall camp.

go to sportsbook and hit the football tab...they have a lot of nfl but only bcs champ for cfb so far...

it was also surprising to see oregon defense, especially their secondary, get lit up so easily up close and in person against usc...i just felt with the better odds and the better defense cal made for the better play

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...I look at this from a realistic standpoint. Like you said, it's about defense winning championships. There's a reason why Okie State and Oregon are in the high odds category to win the NC...Defense. If you want to know why OU hasn't won the NC in their last 3 tries it's been their defense. It was just good enough to get them to the big dance. Just not good enough to get them over the hump. Florida in 2008, USC in 2004 and LSU in 2003 all had better defenses than OU. Okie State might very well have the best offense in the country. Oregon and USC might be right there with them. They may all 3 be good enough to win their respective conferences. But unless there is a series of unfortuante events for all of the good defensive teams, none of these teams win the NC. The only teams that I think have a realistic chance to win it are Florida, Texas, OU and Virginia Tech. With LSU and Georgia being possible outsiders depending on the improvement of their defenses.. I know you aren't high on VT. But they will be improved this year from the very young team they were last season. And none of us know for sure how much more. They are in a conference that is very winnable. And if like you said one of those unfortunate events happen like a Tebow, McCoy or Bradford getting hurt, then their odds go way up if they end up facing a USC or an Ohio State in the NC game. As for Cal, I'm still pretty torn between them and Oregon giving USC the biggest fight for the conference title. I would prefer to have those very good linebackers back for Cal. But they do have a very realistic chance of winning their conference considering who USC lost on defense. Which alone makes me rule out USC for NC hopes. I could be wrong. But it's asking alot for a defense to come together that quick, while also dealing with breaking in a new QB. I think 2 losses are very possible with this team. And I really haven't felt this way about USC since Carroll has been there. So right now, if there is a team that I'm seriously looking at for their good odds combined with the defense, it's VT.

GS-
i'm not actually picking these teams to win the NC...i'm picking them to get there...at those prices i would hedge all of them, especially against UF, Texas, OU

as for VT, their odds are only 15-1 so not all that great compared to the 4 that i've played
and even though the schedule breaks right for them this year with their toughest games at home, they're in the tougher division in their conference...miami, gtech, unc, nc st as well as bama and nebraska ooc (4 home/one neutral/one road) but i still see at least 2 losses there (i would fade them against the spread in all of them but that's not what we're discussing here anyway)...i also feel, because of their conference, that they have to win both of their ooc games to have a legit chance at the title game

more importantly, they're not very good imo...

 

[Conan]

Trent,
Good stuff.
I may have read over it but where do you get these odds. I looked at sportsbook.com but can't find any. If its not too much trouble could you list the P10 futures?

As for Oregon/Blount, you picked a bad game to watch him USC's speed at LB completely shut down the ducks running lanes. As for CAL that game was played in a monsoon. He's got legit 1st round skills but it may be that Oregon's biggest threat will be Lamichael James who is a step faster than Jeremiah Johnson and has excellent laterall speed he should be full go by fall camp.

I've seen what looks like a bunch of overcooked hype about LaMichael James Ducks. He has been pretty good in practice, but can you see him as a first year RS? My latest reads suggest that Andre Crenshaw will be backing up Blount. I dunno what to think at this point. Maybe it's a wait and see thing. James could end up playing but now some suggest that he will RS in '09. That's what I've seen in print lately... FWIW. I think I saw this in an article that mentioned a 2-deep depth chart. I don't recall the source but I could probably dig it up.

 

[UoweDucks]

I've seen what looks like a bunch of overcooked hype about LaMichael James Ducks. He has been pretty good in practice, but can you see him as a first year RS? My latest reads suggest that Andre Crenshaw will be backing up Blount. I dunno what to think at this point. Maybe it's a wait and see thing. James could end up playing but now some suggest that he will RS in '09. That's what I've seen in print lately... FWIW. I think I saw this in an article that mentioned a 2-deep depth chart. I don't recall the source but I could probably dig it up.

He can't redshirt this year because he used his RS last yr. Whomever wrote that doesn't know what they are talking about. LMJ is very good. Kelly is excited about him. The reason Crenshaw is 2 on the depth chart is because LMJ was still recovering from his surgery this spring. In fact prior to his injury, Remene Allston was ahead of Crenshaw this camp.

 

[Conan]

He can't redshirt this year because he used his RS last yr. Whomever wrote that doesn't know what they are talking about. LMJ is very good. Kelly is excited about him. The reason Crenshaw is 2 on the depth chart is because LMJ was still recovering from his surgery this spring. In fact prior to his injury, Remene Allston was ahead of Crenshaw this camp.

A waste of time looking for it again. I think it was from another school's blog. But your word is good enough for me. I like your version better too. I also like James. He's pretty tough for a smaller RB, which is stylish these days. Very fast and skilled and quick to make cuts. He and Blount look like they will be an exciting pair to watch. Once again, it appears that the Ducks can hit you from many different directions. A capable back-up in Crenshaw too. Now let's see some development on the OL.

 

[MemphisRaines]

Speaking of Ole Miss futures, Bodog isn't even currently offering one for Mississippi. However, their "Field (Any Other Team)" option is paying out 60/1, so essentially Ole Miss is a 60/1 payout despite being listed as low as 20/1 at other books (SportsBook).

I want to bet the Field but I'm afraid that Bodog will add an Ole Miss future sometime soon and then my field bet somehow won't include them. Is there anyone that uses Bodog and has bet a future that knows if I bet the Field, will it give me a list of the teams that do NOT qualify in "the field"? Basically, I want it locked down in print that Mississippi counts as part of "the field".

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

As usual, solid analysis Trent.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

This is simply conjecture at this point, but i think OU and USC might lose 2 this year...both have extremely tough schedules: usc plays top 20 teams oregon, cal, ohio st, and notre dame ON THE ROAD and at night except for ND, and OU plays top 25-type teams byu, miami (i think they should be ranked), nebraska and kansas on the road as well as neutral vs texas...and not to get into an x's and o's discussion but if their new o-line struggles i'm curious to see how bradford does with pressure in his face this season...that program has been through a lot the last few years (usc blowout/boise st miracle/w vir blowout/ and losing RRR and NC game last yr)...being an outsider i have no idea what's going on locally/alumni/etc. but i'm curious how they respond this year

the ole miss play is basically set up with those odds to hedge if they face gators in sec title game or a play if tebow breaks his leg mid-season...

Agree that it's likely both OU and USC probably lose 2 games each this season.

Bookmaker.com, get off your can and give us some season win totals to bet this weekend.

:drink:

 

[GoSooners]

Agree that it's likely both OU and USC probably lose 2 games each this season.

Bookmaker.com, get off your can and give us some season win totals to bet this weekend.

:drink:

Bookmaker usually doesn't start releasing team totals until July. But I agree. I'm ready for those totals. I hit 8 of 10 last season, and had a nice payday at the end of the season.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Just one question for you Trent. Will you be posting a thread that summarizes all of your futures play? Kind of difficult keeping up with them in a long thread.

 

[trentmoney]

Just one question for you Trent. Will you be posting a thread that summarizes all of your futures play? Kind of difficult keeping up with them in a long thread.

once i'm done w/ all my conference title futures and season totals i'll summarize everything in one post

 

[BigdaddyQH]

once i'm done w/ all my conference title futures and season totals i'll summarize everything in one post

Thanks. It will be easier that way. Maybe we can start a thread for season's totals and futures so everyone can see what we agree/disagree on.

 

[trentmoney]

0.625* ND o8.5 -160 sportsbook (limits are the reason for the odd wager size)

17 returning starters (LT Duncan and CB Walls started in '07 before RS in '08) and many are 3 yr starters...Offense should be top-level (10 returning starters and all skill players are returning starters) and DC Tenuta in 2nd season w/ personnel should lead to improvement on that side of the ball...3 wins in '07, 6 wins in '08, and w/ coach on the hot seat and calling plays i expect the improvement to continue vs easier schedule

only 4 true road games (neutral in Texas vs Wash st) and only one vs bowl team last yr (pitt)...should be favored in 11 games this yr, play only 2 teams that won bowl games last yr and get both at home

 

[trentmoney]

0.2* to win 2* NC St ACC champ +1000
0.4* to win 1* Penn St Big 10 champ +250
both played at sportsbook

NC St finished acc last season as hottest team, winning last 4, including 2 on road...was almost last 5 as a 27-24 road loss to maryland on a last second FG preceded that streak
Best QB in conference along w/ 4 srs and ret starter Jr on o-line should result in most explosive offense in conference...last 5 conf games avg 30 ppg (3 on road) and should pick up where they left off
Defense returns key players as long as nate irving returns by start of acc play on Oct 3...during final 4 game acc win streak defense held opponent to 17 or less in 3 of those...4 sr starters on D-line should help form base of productive defense
Not too high on FSU this yr and while clemson should be tough in the trenches a new qb and first full yr for new coach could lead to inconsistency could open up the path for berth in champ game

Penn St gets 2 biggest threats at home this yr (iowa/oh st) and better price than oh st (+150)

Best QB in big 10: check
Best rb corps in big 10: check
Best front 7 in big 10: check

questions in secondary but this is b10, not b12...not too many qbs to take advantage...best 3-man rotation at DT along w/ LB corps can shut down run game of any opponent...questions along o-line but return all-b10 wisneiwski and 3yr sr starter landolt and with stars at qb and rb should still be explosive on offense

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Imo, if you like Penn St to win big 10 at +250, you should consider also playing them to win the national title at nearly +5000.

Easy schedule out of conference and if they sweep big 10 and are 12-0 or only lose one big ten game, at 11-1 they have a real shot of being in natl title game.

Acc is completely wide open this season among at least a half dozen teams and nc st is as solid as the top of the remaining field.

 

[trentmoney]

Imo, if you like Penn St to win big 10 at +250, you should consider also playing them to win the national title at nearly +5000.

Easy schedule out of conference and if they sweep big 10 and are 12-0 or only lose one big ten game, at 11-1 they have a real shot of being in natl title game.

Acc is completely wide open this season among at least a half dozen teams and nc st is as solid as the top of the remaining field.

originally thought about psu for nc but thought about how a one-loss b10 team could get snubbed...then when i decided that shouldn't stop me from playing the value it had dropped already to 30-1 so i passed

acc wide open yet i can get 10-1 on the team w/ the best qb!!!

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Agree, acc is too wide open among top half for ncst, a team with 8 home games, that again looks improved, and played much better 2nd half of last season to be 10-1. Also, your odds are much better than whats listed at other books.

fwiw, betphoenix is still offering penn st at 40-1.