European trends to watch this year
Teams and tactics to keep an eye on during the European soccer season
By Albert Larcada
ESPN Insider
The English Premier League kicks off tomorrow, which means it's time to turn our attention to European soccer. Using play-by-play data provided by OPTA, here's a look at some trends, tactics and teams you should be keeping an eye on this season.
"West Coast offense?"
Much like American football, the EPL is seeing a transition from long, risky passes to short, effective ones. The short passing game has been particularly evident among the most successful EPL squads.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->The short of it
Last year, the top four EPL clubs also had the shortest average pass distance.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>TEAM</TH><TH>Avg Pass Dist (yds)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Arsenal</TD><TD>20.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man City</TD><TD>22.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chelsea</TD><TD>22.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man Utd</TD><TD>23.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Man United (the top four teams in the final table) finished last season with the shortest average pass distance in the EPL. Keep in mind this is every pass attempted, not just completed, so it should at least partly reflect style of play as opposed to quality.
Arsenal might have trouble continuing this favorable style next season. Its two best playmakers, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas, are thought to be on their way out of London. A move by Wesley Sneijder to Man U might flip United and Arsenal altogether.
Not coincidently, these four squads had four of the seven fewest aerial challenges in the EPL last season. Successful EPL teams are no longer simply lobbing the ball downfield and hoping for the best. They are methodically moving down the pitch with short, low-risk passing.
In fact, the only team that finished in the top 10 of the final table that did not finish in the top 10 in shortest average pass distance was Everton (seventh in the final table, 16th in average pass distance). That means one of two things for the Toffees: They were extremely efficient at completing long passes or they were the beneficiary of a little luck. Neither looks to be a sustainable way of staying near the top.
Everton has been the quietest squad in the EPL during the transfer window this summer, so any hopes of improving its standing will likely rest with its current crop of players.
The short passing game was not just an EPL theme, however. The top four squads in La Liga also finished with the four shortest average pass distances. Champions League winner Barcelona had the shortest average pass distance in the four major European leagues last season.
Style points
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Passing time
Here is the standard deviation for pass attempts for each of the top five teams of a season ago. The larger the number, the more the team altered it's style.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Standard deviation of pass attempts (EPL Rank)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Man Utd</TD><TD>86.5 (1)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man City</TD><TD>82.0 (2)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Arsenal</TD><TD>76.6 (3)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tottenham</TD><TD>76.0 (4)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chelsea</TD><TD>64.0 (13)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->With a hat tip to Chris Anderson at Soccer By The Numbers, let's take a look at the consistency of style for some of the top EPL teams from last season. We will define consistency of style as the standard deviation between the number of passes attempted in all 38 matches for each EPL squad.
Chelsea really stood out from the other title competitors. Its style of play -- as defined by the numbers of passes attempted -- varied far less than other top squads. The Blues kept to their form regardless of opponent, but teams such as United and City generally dominated possession against weak opponents and played more defensively against stiffer competition.
For what's it's worth, Stoke finished as the most consistent passing team last season.
Yanks abroad
In each article this season we will look at one or two U.S. players playing abroad and analyze their performance using OPTA's detailed statistics. Here we will delve into Steve Cherundolo and his perpetually underrated numbers in the Bundesliga.
"Dolo" has appeared in 326 matches in Germany, all for Hannover. He helped Hannover gain promotion to the Bundesliga following the 2001-02 season and has been a staple in its lineup ever since.
Wearing the captain's arm band last season, Cherundolo completed the eighth-most passes into the attacking third of the field in the Bundesliga. He completed more passes into the final third than international stars Thomas Muller, Franck Ribery and Lukas Podolski.
The general consensus was that Cherundolo was the United States' best player in South Africa last summer and the effect of his injury in the Gold Cup final against Mexico was evident. Dolo is not often thought of as one of the American soccer greats, but with the quality and longevity of his international and European career we may have to start putting him in that category.
Speaking of all-time greats, Clint Dempsey is well on his way. The Fulham star scored a team-high 12 goals in the EPL last season.
A lot of Dempsey's goals were from close range. In fact, among 10-plus non-penalty goal scorers in the EPL last season, Dempsey's average goal distance was the third lowest. Only Kevin Nolan and Mexican international "Chicharito" scored from closer in on average.
Underrated transfer
Given all the high-publicity transfer talk of Carlos Tevez, Sneijder and Sergio Aguero (only one of whom has actually moved), Real Madrid may have collected the prize piece from this offseason's window in Turkish international Nuri Sahin.
Sahin won the Bundesliga Player of the Season award from Germany's Kicker Magazine, and for good reason.
During Dortmund's blistering first half of the season in which it essentially clinched the title, Sahin completed nearly 200 more passes than every member of his squad. He ended the season completing the second-most passes into the attacking third of the field in the Bundesliga.
For all of this, Madrid paid an incredibly low transfer fee of 10 million euros. Given the talent and ability of Sahin, Los Blancos found the steal of the offseason.
Teams and tactics to keep an eye on during the European soccer season
By Albert Larcada
ESPN Insider
The English Premier League kicks off tomorrow, which means it's time to turn our attention to European soccer. Using play-by-play data provided by OPTA, here's a look at some trends, tactics and teams you should be keeping an eye on this season.
"West Coast offense?"
Much like American football, the EPL is seeing a transition from long, risky passes to short, effective ones. The short passing game has been particularly evident among the most successful EPL squads.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->The short of it
Last year, the top four EPL clubs also had the shortest average pass distance.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>TEAM</TH><TH>Avg Pass Dist (yds)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Arsenal</TD><TD>20.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man City</TD><TD>22.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chelsea</TD><TD>22.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man Utd</TD><TD>23.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Man United (the top four teams in the final table) finished last season with the shortest average pass distance in the EPL. Keep in mind this is every pass attempted, not just completed, so it should at least partly reflect style of play as opposed to quality.
Arsenal might have trouble continuing this favorable style next season. Its two best playmakers, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas, are thought to be on their way out of London. A move by Wesley Sneijder to Man U might flip United and Arsenal altogether.
Not coincidently, these four squads had four of the seven fewest aerial challenges in the EPL last season. Successful EPL teams are no longer simply lobbing the ball downfield and hoping for the best. They are methodically moving down the pitch with short, low-risk passing.
In fact, the only team that finished in the top 10 of the final table that did not finish in the top 10 in shortest average pass distance was Everton (seventh in the final table, 16th in average pass distance). That means one of two things for the Toffees: They were extremely efficient at completing long passes or they were the beneficiary of a little luck. Neither looks to be a sustainable way of staying near the top.
Everton has been the quietest squad in the EPL during the transfer window this summer, so any hopes of improving its standing will likely rest with its current crop of players.
The short passing game was not just an EPL theme, however. The top four squads in La Liga also finished with the four shortest average pass distances. Champions League winner Barcelona had the shortest average pass distance in the four major European leagues last season.
Style points
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Passing time
Here is the standard deviation for pass attempts for each of the top five teams of a season ago. The larger the number, the more the team altered it's style.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Standard deviation of pass attempts (EPL Rank)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Man Utd</TD><TD>86.5 (1)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man City</TD><TD>82.0 (2)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Arsenal</TD><TD>76.6 (3)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tottenham</TD><TD>76.0 (4)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chelsea</TD><TD>64.0 (13)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->With a hat tip to Chris Anderson at Soccer By The Numbers, let's take a look at the consistency of style for some of the top EPL teams from last season. We will define consistency of style as the standard deviation between the number of passes attempted in all 38 matches for each EPL squad.
Chelsea really stood out from the other title competitors. Its style of play -- as defined by the numbers of passes attempted -- varied far less than other top squads. The Blues kept to their form regardless of opponent, but teams such as United and City generally dominated possession against weak opponents and played more defensively against stiffer competition.
For what's it's worth, Stoke finished as the most consistent passing team last season.
Yanks abroad
In each article this season we will look at one or two U.S. players playing abroad and analyze their performance using OPTA's detailed statistics. Here we will delve into Steve Cherundolo and his perpetually underrated numbers in the Bundesliga.
"Dolo" has appeared in 326 matches in Germany, all for Hannover. He helped Hannover gain promotion to the Bundesliga following the 2001-02 season and has been a staple in its lineup ever since.
Wearing the captain's arm band last season, Cherundolo completed the eighth-most passes into the attacking third of the field in the Bundesliga. He completed more passes into the final third than international stars Thomas Muller, Franck Ribery and Lukas Podolski.
The general consensus was that Cherundolo was the United States' best player in South Africa last summer and the effect of his injury in the Gold Cup final against Mexico was evident. Dolo is not often thought of as one of the American soccer greats, but with the quality and longevity of his international and European career we may have to start putting him in that category.
Speaking of all-time greats, Clint Dempsey is well on his way. The Fulham star scored a team-high 12 goals in the EPL last season.
A lot of Dempsey's goals were from close range. In fact, among 10-plus non-penalty goal scorers in the EPL last season, Dempsey's average goal distance was the third lowest. Only Kevin Nolan and Mexican international "Chicharito" scored from closer in on average.
Underrated transfer
Given all the high-publicity transfer talk of Carlos Tevez, Sneijder and Sergio Aguero (only one of whom has actually moved), Real Madrid may have collected the prize piece from this offseason's window in Turkish international Nuri Sahin.
Sahin won the Bundesliga Player of the Season award from Germany's Kicker Magazine, and for good reason.
During Dortmund's blistering first half of the season in which it essentially clinched the title, Sahin completed nearly 200 more passes than every member of his squad. He ended the season completing the second-most passes into the attacking third of the field in the Bundesliga.
For all of this, Madrid paid an incredibly low transfer fee of 10 million euros. Given the talent and ability of Sahin, Los Blancos found the steal of the offseason.
