Ten Trends from 2009 Drafts
Every season is different. The owner that keeps the same old strategy every year is the owner that doesn't win any money.
Here's a look at ten factors that make this year's draft unlike any other.
1.Open-ended First Round
The top of this year's first round is the most wide open of any in the last decade. There is very little consensus after Adrian Peterson. This is how it should be every year because fantasy football is too unpredictable for everyone to have the same ideas.
There are a lot of different flavors available. Some will like Michael Turner's power attack, some think LaDainian Tomlinson will rebound, and others will bet big on the young guys like Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. A few will believe that a steady quarterback like Drew Brees or a receiver like Larry Fitzgerald is a safer pick.
Maurice Jones-Drew is the happy medium between veteran and youth, potential and safety. It would be surprising to see him fall too far, especially in points-per-reception leagues.
2. Top Wideouts Are Going Higher
You will read a lot of preseason literature about how wide receivers are going higher than ever as owners react to the uncertainty at running back around the league.
This is true because of the depth at the top of the wideout rankings. Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson are often drafted by pick 15. But Fitz is only being taken eighth overall, so the very top of most drafts remain a running back party.
Check out Gregg's daily updates on Twitter. Rotoworld football headlines are there too.
3. More Wideouts in Rounds Two and Three
The real difference in receiver drafting strategy shows up in rounds two and three. Using Mock Draft Central's data, wideouts take up all but six picks between No. 15 and No. 33. That's a 50 percent jump from the same group last year.
While Rotoworld disagrees on some of the names and placement of these wideouts, our Top 200 reflects a similar trend. There are roughly 15 rock solid wideouts we believe you can play every week, and they are safer picks than many RB2s.
4. The Running Back Drop
The flip side to more wideouts in rounds two and three? There are less running backs there than usual.
I see a big drop in value around RB14: Clinton Portis or Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs has an ADP of 18; the next highest back is Ronnie Brown at 28. There is another seven-pick wait for a back after that.
If you can't get a top-14 back, there still will be quality RB2s to grab. (Our favorites include Brown, Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith.) But the ADP data indicates you don't need to be in a hurry to take them in the second round.
5. The Big Three QBs
Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are getting drafted within nine picks of each other in the second and third rounds. The Rotoworld rankings have them even closer. That's the price tag if you want to roll with an elite passer.
Brady and Manning traditionally go higher, so the value isn't bad. I've seen them slip into the late third or fourth round occasionally.
After the big three, ADP indicates there is a two-round wait until the next group of quarterbacks. This includes Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo.
<!--RW-->6. Shallow Wide Receiver Pool
It's possible I've been staring at the rankings too long, but the wide receiver depth outside the top-30 looks really poor. (I can hear the emails: "Aren't wideouts outside the top 30 always boring?")
My answer is that the drop between quality WR3 (Donald Driver, Lance Moore) and guesswork (Nate Washington, Justin Gage) isn't usually so dramatic. Once the top 30-35 receivers are gone, the rest of the receiver board looks just about the same. Pick a few you like and wait.
This trend is not really apparent in the Average Draft Position. The absence of decent depth is pushing too many endgame receivers into the middle rounds. My advice would be to get your receiver depth late.
7. Rookie Running Back Value
This was mentioned in our lessons learned column, but it's worth repeating. Rookie running backs are often great sources of value, and this season is no different.
Knowshon Moreno is narrowly cracking the top 50. Beanie Wells is going in the sixth round, Donald Brown in the eighth, and poor Shonn Greene is barely getting drafted at all.
These aren't guaranteed producers, but they have huge potential for their draft slots. They are getting drafted as reserves, and a few will wind up as every-week starters.
8. Too Many Tight Ends?
It's so easy to find a quality tight end that no one is in a rush to draft one. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez are going in the fifth round, and Dallas Clark and Kellen Winslow are being picked in the sixth. Greg Olsen and Chris Cooley go in the middle rounds, while John Carlson and Zach Miller are well outside the top-100 picks.
Whatever draft slot you prefer, tight end does not look like a position to prioritize this season. Take the value when it comes to you.
9. Middle Round Running Back Fun
The middle rounds used to be for building wideout depth. Now I'd rather take a few receivers early and see what running backs are available in rounds 6-9.
You can get RB3/4s that start or have very high ceilings. Felix Jones, Cedric Benson and Donald Brown are among the good values that often slip quite far. Committees have hurt the number of stud running backs, but it's increased the amount of useful pieces.
10. Kicker and Team Defense Insanity
This problem has to be mentioned because it hasn't been fully addressed by owners. Kickers like Stephen Gostkowski and Rob Bironas are still getting taken with five rounds left. Team defenses are going as early as the seventh round, and consistently a few teams are taken per-round after that.
I'm not sure which crime is worse. Kickers are distasteful, but I don't think owners appreciate how wildly unpredictable and replaceable team defenses are. There are 32 of them, and they are all guaranteed to score every week. You can play the matchups. Many of the defensive scoring categories like turnovers are largely the product of luck. ADP data indicates not a lot of people use the Rotoworld top 200 rankings.
Every season is different. The owner that keeps the same old strategy every year is the owner that doesn't win any money.
Here's a look at ten factors that make this year's draft unlike any other.
1.Open-ended First Round
The top of this year's first round is the most wide open of any in the last decade. There is very little consensus after Adrian Peterson. This is how it should be every year because fantasy football is too unpredictable for everyone to have the same ideas.
There are a lot of different flavors available. Some will like Michael Turner's power attack, some think LaDainian Tomlinson will rebound, and others will bet big on the young guys like Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. A few will believe that a steady quarterback like Drew Brees or a receiver like Larry Fitzgerald is a safer pick.
Maurice Jones-Drew is the happy medium between veteran and youth, potential and safety. It would be surprising to see him fall too far, especially in points-per-reception leagues.
2. Top Wideouts Are Going Higher
You will read a lot of preseason literature about how wide receivers are going higher than ever as owners react to the uncertainty at running back around the league.
This is true because of the depth at the top of the wideout rankings. Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson are often drafted by pick 15. But Fitz is only being taken eighth overall, so the very top of most drafts remain a running back party.
Check out Gregg's daily updates on Twitter. Rotoworld football headlines are there too.
3. More Wideouts in Rounds Two and Three
The real difference in receiver drafting strategy shows up in rounds two and three. Using Mock Draft Central's data, wideouts take up all but six picks between No. 15 and No. 33. That's a 50 percent jump from the same group last year.
While Rotoworld disagrees on some of the names and placement of these wideouts, our Top 200 reflects a similar trend. There are roughly 15 rock solid wideouts we believe you can play every week, and they are safer picks than many RB2s.
4. The Running Back Drop
The flip side to more wideouts in rounds two and three? There are less running backs there than usual.
I see a big drop in value around RB14: Clinton Portis or Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs has an ADP of 18; the next highest back is Ronnie Brown at 28. There is another seven-pick wait for a back after that.
If you can't get a top-14 back, there still will be quality RB2s to grab. (Our favorites include Brown, Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith.) But the ADP data indicates you don't need to be in a hurry to take them in the second round.
5. The Big Three QBs
Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are getting drafted within nine picks of each other in the second and third rounds. The Rotoworld rankings have them even closer. That's the price tag if you want to roll with an elite passer.
Brady and Manning traditionally go higher, so the value isn't bad. I've seen them slip into the late third or fourth round occasionally.
After the big three, ADP indicates there is a two-round wait until the next group of quarterbacks. This includes Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo.
<!--RW-->6. Shallow Wide Receiver Pool
It's possible I've been staring at the rankings too long, but the wide receiver depth outside the top-30 looks really poor. (I can hear the emails: "Aren't wideouts outside the top 30 always boring?")
My answer is that the drop between quality WR3 (Donald Driver, Lance Moore) and guesswork (Nate Washington, Justin Gage) isn't usually so dramatic. Once the top 30-35 receivers are gone, the rest of the receiver board looks just about the same. Pick a few you like and wait.
This trend is not really apparent in the Average Draft Position. The absence of decent depth is pushing too many endgame receivers into the middle rounds. My advice would be to get your receiver depth late.
7. Rookie Running Back Value
This was mentioned in our lessons learned column, but it's worth repeating. Rookie running backs are often great sources of value, and this season is no different.
Knowshon Moreno is narrowly cracking the top 50. Beanie Wells is going in the sixth round, Donald Brown in the eighth, and poor Shonn Greene is barely getting drafted at all.
These aren't guaranteed producers, but they have huge potential for their draft slots. They are getting drafted as reserves, and a few will wind up as every-week starters.
8. Too Many Tight Ends?
It's so easy to find a quality tight end that no one is in a rush to draft one. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez are going in the fifth round, and Dallas Clark and Kellen Winslow are being picked in the sixth. Greg Olsen and Chris Cooley go in the middle rounds, while John Carlson and Zach Miller are well outside the top-100 picks.
Whatever draft slot you prefer, tight end does not look like a position to prioritize this season. Take the value when it comes to you.
9. Middle Round Running Back Fun
The middle rounds used to be for building wideout depth. Now I'd rather take a few receivers early and see what running backs are available in rounds 6-9.
You can get RB3/4s that start or have very high ceilings. Felix Jones, Cedric Benson and Donald Brown are among the good values that often slip quite far. Committees have hurt the number of stud running backs, but it's increased the amount of useful pieces.
10. Kicker and Team Defense Insanity
This problem has to be mentioned because it hasn't been fully addressed by owners. Kickers like Stephen Gostkowski and Rob Bironas are still getting taken with five rounds left. Team defenses are going as early as the seventh round, and consistently a few teams are taken per-round after that.
I'm not sure which crime is worse. Kickers are distasteful, but I don't think owners appreciate how wildly unpredictable and replaceable team defenses are. There are 32 of them, and they are all guaranteed to score every week. You can play the matchups. Many of the defensive scoring categories like turnovers are largely the product of luck. ADP data indicates not a lot of people use the Rotoworld top 200 rankings.
