Trend betting: good idea or bad idea?

[BigGamesOnly]

I remember last summer when the Marlins went UNDER for something like 8 games in a row. Easy bet on the next game right? Take the UNDER. I did and lost.

Now, Golden State goes UNDER 8 games in a row so what do I bet? I bet the UNDER and lose.

I know my experience in these 2 cases is unusual but does trend betting make sense? If so, how do you know when a trend will continue?

 

[TheGeneral+]

Start a spreadsheet tracking a few items such as above. Track baseball teams totals every year and you will establish a point inwhich the odds are in your favor on a trend. After a few years of data, you will start to see patterns develop that makes your selections stronger.

 

[mhk]

I've always liked fading trends, just seems to me the law of averages dictate that I do so.. Of course, I have bet them, can't pass up a sure thing, lol....

 

[Horseshoe]

I tend to find long term trends most stout, yet with the fluidity of two year hoops collegians, and the FA turnover in all pro sports, they have clearly given rise to the respect needed for current trends' validity.

Current form meant everything for the most part in college bowls and Madness this past year, as teams like Tenn's stagger to finish & FSU's annual bowl prowess(yet slow finish), or UF's stumble to close & Az's usual tourney prowess(yet sluggish all yr),etc..couldn't just flip the switch on a whim.

Yet as examples of great current form/ATS roll$, LSU rolled over UGA and OU to foots title, and Xavier rampaged the hoops money.

I like trends!

 

[WildBill]

Trends have a sweet spot depending on the sport. Hockey has the shortest trends, the game is filled with results determined by lucky bounces so trends can occur without real reasoning. Baseball can be like this to a degree, but trends are elongated. Football is not a trend sport, the books take too much action and have to adjust the numbers fast. NBA is just weird, for a couple of weeks no trends are safe and then next thing you know 4 or 5 teams are on 5 game ATS streaks, unless you really are in tune with it I would stay away. NCAA hoops is tough as well because scheduling and huge home court factors make trends hard to develop or follow, although a skilled player can read into the trends and get some value.

In short:
1. NHL-Start betting against trends after 3 or 4 games.
2. MLB-Bet on sides that are in winning or losing streaks from win or loss 3 to about win or loss 7. After that the prices get too far out of whack.
3. Football-Tend to bet against a trend the moment you spot it after September. Some trends early in the year before bettors adjust to the new squads.
4. Hoops-Unless you are following closely trends following will probably cost you.

Most important thing though is if you are going to play on trends is don't be greedy. If you are backing a trend take a couple of wins and then back off, rest assured not only are the law of averages against you, but so is the newly adjusted line. If you are betting against a trend, take a couple of shots but then back off. Don't let one trend that builds more than expected hurt you. If you can't pick up a win going against a trend two games in a row I would just give up on that one and look for the next opportunity.

 

[TheGeneral+]

In tracking the NBA team sides and totals for the last 5 years now using lines from sportswire, I have seen one occasion where a team has had a streak of more than 10 straight ATS.

 

[barman]

Well, the example you cite doesn't qualify as a Trend in my book.

It's just a narrow example of a full schedule.

The Book is always going to push towards a Central result.

So if you get 4-5 Side wins, or Overs, or Unders, the line is tweaked a bit via point adjustment and/or price change.

The key of course is to spot that 'soft spot' where you perceive a continuation of the Recent Results for at least one more time at a favorable price.

Then with the next game, you evaluate fresh, again considering that with each extension of the Recent Result (trend) the tweaking is getting tighter.

 

[barman]

Of course, any such Recent Result 'trend' must also take into consideration the Recent Result of the scheduled opponent as well.

So Team A has say, five consecutive Unders. What is the last five for the opponent?

In our basketball capping we include Past10 games as a variable. I've noticed that if the combined number of Overs (for example) between the two teams for Past10 games is 12+, then the posted Totals line will usually be a couple points over 'normal'. At 14+, it will be 4-5 points higher. And in the case of 15 or 16, it goes up even a bit more. Though that's more rare since it would mean only 4 combined Unders between the two teams in Past10.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Excellent points all.

barman writes: "So if you get 4-5 Side wins, or Overs, or Unders, the line is tweaked a bit via point adjustment and/or price change."

I know there are adjustments made for both sides and totals, but it seems to me that the adjustment for totals is not as much as sides. I know the linesmaker can add or subtract numbers for a trend but the juice is seldom less than -130 for a total. I find that some teams that are on a trend will oftentimes beat the line by more points than what has been adjusted.

For example, if a team is going significantly OVER, the linesmaker may adjust it up a couple points or even 4-5 points. Yet that team may be going over the total consistently more than 4-5 points (especially in baseball). The linesmaker cannot set a line that is too high (like 14 runs in baseball) yet there may be certain trends that suggest that the game will go that high.

On the other hand, if a team has a trend of winning ATS on a side, the line is usually adjusted to -200 or even more, significantly reducing your profit.

It's all about finding when the line is off. If the line is not adjusted enough, one can find a profit.

 

[SyndicSelect]

trend betting = disaster

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SyndicSelect:
trend betting = disaster<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Close minded betting = disaster

 

[mhk]

NBA trends (a bet within itself):
All Mia/NO and SA/Mem games this year (5 each) have gone under, the bet is how long will it last? Thats trend betting, you go with it or fade it, up to each bettor....

 

[5teamparlay]

Go Giants

DBacks losers of 9 in a row !!
Having reached nine games, the losing streak is now their longest in almost eleven years. Their May record is now 4-19, a dismal win percentage of just .174.