Trap Game - Week 12

[ajreeb]

I wouldn't call it "begging", but Pinny seems to be politely asking for NYG bets...

<TABLE class=rt_railbox_border2 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/23</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>12:53pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-151 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+141 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-3 -104 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG+3 -104 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -108 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -102 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/23</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>1:31pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-148 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+138 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-3 -102 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG+3 -106 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -108 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -102 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/23</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>1:58pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-148 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+138 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-3 +100 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG+3 -108 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -108 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -102 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/23</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>2:43pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-148 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+138 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-3 +101 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG+3 -109 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -108 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>48 -102 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NYG-1.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+1.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I agree with ESQAJM, I think ARI is the play this week.

 

[quantumleap]

I agree that Arizona is another play for the reasons ESQAJM and ajreeb said. Giants are a sucker play.

I'm also going with SD. The line started at Indy +3 and changed a bit throughout the week but settled at +3 so I take that as steady. I also notice Pinnacle and 5dimes are offering Indy +3 +100 but that may just be due to the fact that they have reduced juice.

 

[ajreeb]

I agree that Arizona is another play for the reasons ESQAJM and ajreeb said. Giants are a sucker play.

I'm also going with SD. The line started at Indy +3 and changed a bit throughout the week but settled at +3 so I take that as steady. I also notice Pinnacle and 5dimes are offering Indy +3 +100 but that may just be due to the fact that they have reduced juice.

Nice hit with HOU, QL. I'm going to make a small play on ARI+3.5 (bodog), my current "sucker" play tally is 0-3 (SEA twice and JAX), so this may be the last time I work the Don Dollars angle.
Good luck to everyone taking Arizona!

 

[quantumleap]

Nice hit with HOU, QL. I'm going to make a small play on ARI+3.5 (bodog), my current "sucker" play tally is 0-3 (SEA twice and JAX), so this may be the last time I work the Don Dollars angle.
Good luck to everyone taking Arizona!

Thanks aj.

I'm also going with Seattle. I know, I know, we all lost taking them twice. But we have leans at both Pinnacle and 5dimes. I see that they were never out of their last 2 games losing 20-26 to AZ and 19-21 against Miami. I think they can pull it out here at home.

 

[ajreeb]

Thanks aj.

I'm also going with Seattle. I know, I know, we all lost taking them twice. But we have leans at both Pinnacle and 5dimes. I see that they were never out of their last 2 games losing 20-26 to AZ and 19-21 against Miami. I think they can pull it out here at home.

You are a braver man than me! Seattle got me twice and I can't pull the trigger again, but I will be pulling for you regardless. GL.

 

[quantumleap]

Wash 20, Seattle 17, PUSH!

 

[ca$hmoney]

Wash 20, Seattle 17, PUSH!

Not for me +3.5:cripwalk:

 

[Gumbi]

Wash 20, Seattle 17, PUSH!

Seattle had the ball back with 2 min left and Hasselbeck through an int... Oh well at least it's not a loss for us who got it at +3..

QL I like your avatar as well... Ron Paul is the most honest person in our political society. I couldn't bring myself to vote for change or Mccain... An interesting thing I came across researching candidates was a documentary a friends guided me to. It is on Youtube called Freedom to Fascism... That is where I looked into Ron Paul as a candidate. It's pretty good.

GL on your bets and who are you leaning towards tonight?

 

[ajreeb]

Wash 20, Seattle 17, PUSH!

Not too bad with your sucker plays, got a win with HOU and a push with Seattle.
I got burnt, again.
Back to the drawing board...

 

[quantumleap]

Seattle had the ball back with 2 min left and Hasselbeck through an int... Oh well at least it's not a loss for us who got it at +3..

QL I like your avatar as well... Ron Paul is the most honest person in our political society. I couldn't bring myself to vote for change or Mccain... An interesting thing I came across researching candidates was a documentary a friends guided me to. It is on Youtube called Freedom to Fascism... That is where I looked into Ron Paul as a candidate. It's pretty good.

GL on your bets and who are you leaning towards tonight?

Thanks Gumbi. I've seen the Freedom to Fascism video and it's very enlightening.

I'm on SD -3 as my 4th trap play of the day. So far I am 1-1-1 ATS.

GL.

 

[Gumbi]

I decided to stay away from the side and just go with the under on the game... Today there were 10 games that hit the over and 5 that hit the under, so I took the under for a small play. I know that way has nothing to do with stats, but usually the O/U's are pretty close to even each week. I guess we will see how it pans out.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Esq:

How much longer will the experiment go on? It seems last 4 so called traps here have been blowout losses. Have you given any thought of keeping the criteria and making it a Blowout game predictor? As you are well aware, many advances in the sciences have been accidental findings by scientists looking for something and finding something else, in this case a Blowout Game Predictor.

I'm somewhat serious... its worth a look.

 

[canabiz]

Guys, perhaps there should be some additional filters for these plays (i.e. not betting on teams that have *quit* for the season and/or questionable coaches)

There is simply no way I would lay any money on the Rams or even the Browns at this stage of the season, no matter how much money is bet on the other side. There are also a few coaches in the league, be it inexperience or a history of boneheaded moves that I always cringe when I have to side with them (Norv Turner, Brad Childress, Dick Jauron) to name a few...

It is one thing to lose money when you are on the wrong side, it's another thing to lose money when there are questionable play-calling and attitude issues involved.

My thoughts.

 

[RonMexico]

Guys, perhaps there should be some additional filters for these plays (i.e. not betting on teams that have *quit* for the season and/or questionable coaches)

There is simply no way I would lay any money on the Rams or even the Browns at this stage of the season, no matter how much money is bet on the other side. There are also a few coaches in the league, be it inexperience or a history of boneheaded moves that I always cringe when I have to side with them (Norv Turner, Brad Childress, Dick Jauron) to name a few...

It is one thing to lose money when you are on the wrong side, it's another thing to lose money when there are questionable play-calling and attitude issues involved.

My thoughts.

Good point this is the time of year were you start seeing it you can throw the cheifs and I would start thinkin bout the seahawks on the road

 

[ESQAJM]

Esq:

How much longer will the experiment go on? It seems last 4 so called traps here have been blowout losses. Have you given any thought of keeping the criteria and making it a Blowout game predictor? As you are well aware, many advances in the sciences have been accidental findings by scientists looking for something and finding something else, in this case a Blowout Game Predictor.

I'm somewhat serious... its worth a look.

OR: The only thing that keeps me going on with this is that I saw Don Dollars hit 9 or 10 straight winners with this system. I felt that was too much to be an accident and the system has some value.

Like I said, it's an experiment and I enjoy trading viewpoints with the guys on here. I don't bet the games because of this system. Although yesterday was the first time I bet the trap game. But I bet Arizona because I like them, not because of the system. I watched the first half, knew I had made a mistake and hedged out of the bet at half time.

Maybe the winners Don Dollars had were just a fluke, or maybe he had the right technique to filter out all the crap and pick the right team and I don't. I don't know. But before I pick the game I rely on the input from the guys on here so it's not only my technique.