Trap Game - Week 12

[quantumleap]

I like ca$hmoney's and ESQAJM's assessment of the Giants being stronger than Arizona. I'll update the spreadsheet later today (Saturday) to reflect that.

 

[Michelangelo]

Looks like I'm wrong about line movement on the Pats/Fins game. I stand corrected. (That sbrlines info convinced me QL. Thanks.)

Back to the drawing board.

 

[Michelangelo]

QL, I just went to sbrlines. It appears that they quote realtime lines.

Is there somewhere that they show the line movement throughout the week? I couldn't find it.

Also, do you know if any of those tracked books opened the Pats as favs?

Thanks.

 

[ESQAJM]

Saturday at 3:30EST: So far I haven't seen anything to change the Giant game as the trap.

 

[quantumleap]

QL, I just went to sbrlines. It appears that they quote realtime lines.

Is there somewhere that they show the line movement throughout the week? I couldn't find it.

Also, do you know if any of those tracked books opened the Pats as favs?

Thanks.

Click on the box with the odds inside under each book (to the right of the box listing the teams). You're going to like what you see. It's why I have that web site open all day.

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks QL. Great stuff.

So as of right now the clear Pinny lean is in the Jax/Minny game. No?

Pinny has Jax -1 -115 while all the rest have Jax -2 / -2' (excepting 5Dimes which has -1 -125). So the Pinny lean play would be Minny. No?

As for the Giants / Snakes, I am uncomfortable with that play.

Don Dollars Rule #5 - "This is one of the MOST IMPORTANT rules which gets neglected all too often."

It is the Public Perception rule. Strong/weak perceptions.

Although, as I stated in my post above, the public views the Giants "very strongly" I don't think it's accurate to say that they view Arizona "weak"ly.

This bothers me. So I cointinue to look at what other games are eligible.

How 'bout Philly/Baltimore?

I think the public perception of Philly is at a season low after their 13-13 tie with dreadful Cincy, exacerbated by McNabb's ignorance of the overtime rule, and Philly's inability to beat the Bad Bengals even with the extra period thrown in.

While Baltimore is gaining traction with their hallmark very strong defense and a QB, Joe Flacco, who is proving that he is capable of moving the team.

Pinnacle is at -1 while 6 of the other 10 books are at 1'. 5Dimes, which also seems to be a very sharp book, is the only one at pick. Are the two sharp books inviting a play on the Ravens?

Wagerline is showing 55% on Balty. Maybe that's not strong enough. Not sure what Ace's percentages are. Does he use Sportsinsights? I can't access their numbers.

 

[ajreeb]

Thanks QL. Great stuff.

How 'bout Philly/Baltimore?

I think the public perception of Philly is at a season low after their 13-13 tie with dreadful Cincy, exacerbated by McNabb's ignorance of the overtime rule, and Philly's inability to beat the Bad Bengals even with the extra period thrown in.

While Baltimore is gaining traction with their hallmark very strong defense and a QB, Joe Flacco, who is proving that he is capable of moving the team.

Pinnacle is at -1 while 6 of the other 10 books are at 1'. 5Dimes, which also seems to be a very sharp book, is the only one at pick. Are the two sharp books inviting a play on the Ravens?

Wagerline is showing 55% on Balty. Maybe that's not strong enough. Not sure what Ace's percentages are. Does he use Sportsinsights? I can't access their numbers.

Here's a free site that lists sportsinsights % on a 1/2 hour delay.
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks QL. Great stuff.

So as of right now the clear Pinny lean is in the Jax/Minny game. No?

Pinny has Jax -1 -115 while all the rest have Jax -2 / -2' (excepting 5Dimes which has -1 -125). So the Pinny lean play would be Minny. No?

This is a good question. One thing you have to be careful of is when Pinnacle is at -1 -115 or even -1 -125 and the rest are at -2/-2'. Pinnacle's line is the line they use for teasers. Pinnacle isn't going to allow +2 or +2' to be teased to +8 or +8' so instead they hang +1 with the heavy juice on one side. You have to go to Pinnacle's site and use the drop-down menus to see what they offer at -2 or -2'.

Same thing for -7' up to -8'. They will hang a -9 with heavy juice so you can't tease across the -7 and -3.

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks AJR.

60% Balty / 40% Philly

Does that qualify? I think just barely.

The problem I have with Arizona, and what I did a poor job of identifying in my last post, is that I think the public perception of them is at a season long high. That bothers me greatly. The public certainly does not view them as "weak".

Is this bothering anyone else?

 

[quantumleap]

Here's the updated Quantum Matrix with 2 columns for Rule #2. One with Wagerline %'s and one with sportsinsights %'s:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cols=7 rules=none border=0 frame=void><COLGROUP><COL width=86><COL width=68><COL width=71><COL width=67><COL width=78><COL width=74><COL width=208></COLGROUP><TBODY><TR><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left width=86 height=57>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left width=68>Too good to be true?</TD><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right width=71>%</TD><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right width=67>%</TD><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left width=78>Line movement</TD><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left width=74>Pinnacle lean?</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left width=208>Public perception</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=50>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Rule 1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Rule 2 Wagerline</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Rule 2 sports- insights</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Rule 3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Rule 4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Rule 5</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=17>Hou/Cle</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="69" SDNUM="1033;">69</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="67" SDNUM="1033;">67</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Steady</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>weak/weak</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=17>NE/Mia</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Yes</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="69" SDNUM="1033;">69</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="85" SDNUM="1033;">85</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Normal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>strong/weak</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=17>Wash/Sea</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Yes</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="70" SDNUM="1033;">70</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="77" SDNUM="1033;">77</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Reverse</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>strong/weak</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=17>NYG/AZ</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Yes</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="62" SDNUM="1033;">62</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="78" SDNUM="1033;">78</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Reverse</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>very strong/weak strong</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=17>Indy/SD</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Yes</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="68" SDNUM="1033;">68</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="71" SDNUM="1033;">71</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Mixed</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>strong/weak</TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left height=17>GB/NO</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="65" SDNUM="1033;">65</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=right SDVAL="66" SDNUM="1033;">66</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>Mixed</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid" align=left>strong/strong</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[ESQAJM]

Thanks AJR.

60% Balty / 40% Philly

Does that qualify? I think just barely.

The problem I have with Arizona, and what I did a poor job of identifying in my last post, is that I think the public perception of them is at a season long high. That bothers me greatly. The public certainly does not view them as "weak".
Is this bothering anyone else?

Yes, that bothers me some. But I think that is overcome by the public's perception of the Giants as a super team,
best team in the NFL, etc., that no other team comes close to. So even though Arizona is not viewed as a weak team, the public views them as being on a lower level than the Giants.

I think for the 3rd week in a row, Seattle is close to being the trap game. The line started at 3.5 and despite 75% of the money being on Washington, there are many 3's out there. But there are also many 3.5's that you can get by paying extra juice. I don't know if you can call this reverse line movement. My own personal opinion though, is that the public overates Seattle. This is the 3rd week in a row that they were in the running for the trap game. They lost the first 2 in blowouts even though there was reverse line movement towards Seattle.

 

[Piranha]

My 2 sucker bet games this week are NE and Giants.........For me its Miami and Arizona.

 

[canabiz]

I just posted something in C-Gold's sucker bet thread.

Gold, this game reminded me of the Dallas-Washington matchups...Washington came into the Big D and pretty much blasted the Boys, a few weeks later, they had a rematch in the capital and the line was Dallas -1. I am sure that left a lot of bettors scratching their heads.

Dallas was as much a public team as New England. Miami came into Foxboro and blasted the Pats as well and now they are only a -1 favorite, pretty much the same personnel save for Maroney/Jordan/Harrison who are now on the shelf for the Pats.

You don't think the casual bettors will look at this and sign up for the Dolphins right away ?

Your thoughts on this New England/Miami game ?

 

[rolltide]

not sure why you guys see something fishy with the Miami line...pun intended. It opened Miami -2 or -2.5 and 80% of bets have come in on New England so the books must move the line, which is now either PK or NE -1. seems like they simply corrected a bad line

if the line had shot up to Miami -3 with that type of heavy betting on NE then I'd say you found the trap

 

[ESQAJM]

As of Sunday morning nothing has changed with the Giant game. The line and public's betting % is still the same.

As for the Seattle game all the books that had the line at 3.5 followed the lead of other books who moved the line to 3 yesterday. They dropped it to 3 today. When I checked last nite 40-50% of the books had the line at 3.5. Now they are at 3 which would qualify this game as a trap game.

According to SportsInsights 79% are on Washington and 76% are on the Giants. Pinnacle is not showing a lean towards either team.

I said above "My own personal opinion is that the public overrates Seattle" I should have said that the sportsbooks overrate Seattle. This is the 3rd week in a row that Seattle qualifies as the trap because the line has had reverse movement.The books have moved the line towards Seattle (giving them less points as a dog) even the the public betting was overwhelming on the opponent. It didn't work the first 2 weeks and I don't see why it should work now.

I think the Giant game qualifies on all the points as a trap and I have to go with that game as the trap game.

Some of you guys who posted liked the NE game as the trap game. But where is the reverse line movement which is the heart of a trap game? NONE

Also you guys that put a lot of stress on what Pinnacle was doing with their lines-that is only a small part of the system. You are giving Pinnacle too much weight.

Again I will make the same statement as I made last week. Don't bet Arizona because of this thread. This thread is an experiment with great back and forth info. It fascinates me in the sense that we are trying to develop something that could be a moneymaker. The comments on here are intelligent and interesting to read, but I don't want people losing money because of this thread.

 

[MikeB]

I'll admit that I got that line from USA Today on Monday. Not sure who they use to get their lines.

If I'm wrong about the opening line, that would change things.

Anyone else have the Pats opening as favs?

I am looking at one of my football pools where we pick ATS from Tuesdays' lines.


This is showing that on Tuesday the Patriots were +2

 

[quantumleap]

No Pinnacle lean on the 2 early games. I'm going to make my decision before the late games kickoff.

 

[alyn]

the opening line for ne/miami was ne -1. miami was never opened as the fav in vegas.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, I have several games that I post in these threads each week. I don't like taking just one bet. One bet is Houston. I think Cleveland fits a sucker bet criteria.

Cleveland beat Buffalo last week so they are high in the public's mind. Houston has lost their last 3. The percentages are all on Cleveland and the line has remained at -3.

Pinnacle and 5dimes have Houston +3 -108 and the rest have Houston +3 -115 or +3 -120 so their is a slight lean.

More later.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, I have several games that I post in these threads each week. I don't like taking just one bet. One bet is Houston. I think Cleveland fits a sucker bet criteria.

Cleveland beat Buffalo last week so they are high in the public's mind. Houston has lost their last 3. The percentages are all on Cleveland and the line has remained at -3.

Pinnacle and 5dimes have Houston +3 -108 and the rest have Houston +3 -115 or +3 -120 so their is a slight lean.

More later.

Houston up 13-6 at the half. Hopefully this will continue.