Aloha Gang! New week, so lets get it started on the right foot this time. Dam, last week was an incredible come from behind for us, as we started off Big in the Hole to the Man only to take another Big chunk of $$$ from him in the end, thanks to that awesome Thursday, Friday, and Saturday we had. This time though, lets start the week off in the positive. Today's card is not that big, yet I have alot of quality plays for us to bank on. Ok Girls and Boyz, Lets Rock-N-Roll!
**6 Unit Plays on:
TEXAS -7 (buy .5pts)-Kansas just 6-14 ATS in all lined games. Kansas currently 0-4 ATS vs good Offensive teams scoring 77+ pts per game. They are also currently 5-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. Lastly they are 0-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. Texas is currently 3-1 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record after 15 or more games. Texas is also 2-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. Kansas lost the last 3 road games, the last 2 were by 19pts and 20pts. Kansas just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road, scoring ONLY 67 ppg. Texas is 13-1 SU at home and scoring 86.1 ppg and 48% from the field, while holding opponents to ONLY 63.4 ppg and 38.5% from the field. Texas lost the last 2 games, the last two years to Kansas. I think a double REVENGER is in order today. Lay the points and expect another Blowout today.(WINNER-by 15pts)
UNLV -7 (buy .5pts)-Wyoming 0-10 SU and 0-9 ATS on the road, scoring just 64.6 ppg and 40.7% from the field, while opponents are scoring 75.6 ppg and shooting 44% from the field. Unlv is 11-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home, scoring 73.9 ppg and 48% from the field, while opponents are held to ONLY 65.6 ppg and 41.9% from the field. Unlv already beat Wyoming at Laramie by 14pts on 1-24. Unlv is 3-0 ATS as a home fav of 6.5 to 9pts. They are also 4-0 ATS after scoring 80pts or more. Wyoming is 0-2 ATs as a road dog of 6.5 to 9pts. They are also 1-9 ATS as a Dog. Also currently 0-9 ATS, and 9-23 ATS the last 3 seasons in road lined games. Also currently 4-13 ATS, 18-36 ATS last 3 seasons when playing against a team with a winning record. Lastly, they are currently 2-5 ATS, 6-18 ATS last 3 seasons when playing with one or less days of rest. Last year Wyoming got the sweep of Unlv, this year the Rebels return the favor. As far as I am concerned anything less than 10pts is a Gift.(WINNER-by 15pts)
RICE/FRESNO ST OVER 131-Rice 4-0 at home on OVERS. Rice averages scoring 82 ppg at home, but have run it to 90-100pts several times during the season. This one looks to be another high scoring affair majority coming from the home cooking Rice team that simply can run it and gun it. Number in my opinion off by about 10-15pts.(LOSE-by 7pts)
**4 Unit Plays on:
VILLANOVA +6.5-Nova 10-2 ATS on road and Cuse 3-9 ATS at home. Hmmmm, good road team vs bad home team. Nova is also 14-8 ATS overall and Cuse is ONLY 7-12 ATS for the season. Syracuse is currently 1-4 ATS as a home Fav of 6.5 to 9 pts. They are also just 2-5 ATS when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Another advantage in this one is that these two havent seen each other since 3-6-02, and in that one Nova beat Syracuse at Syracuse 78-64 as a 4pt dog. Syracuse is very over valued and their last game at GT definately showed this. Nova is simply a very dangerous road Dog that has been MONEY all year, and I aint going to jump off of this money maker. Another key stat I like is that Nova is playing their best ball Offensively % wise on the road then at home. This Dog simply likes to go into anothers house and piss all over the place. Today, they could do more than piss here at Syracuse. They could also take a DUMP, meaning they could pull the upset over this Cuse squad who is nothing without Carmello Anthony.(WINNER)
AIR FORCE +6-Here are some stats I like favoring AF. AF is 4-1 ATS as an Underdog. They are 5-2 ATS on the Road. They are currently 7-4 ATS, 31-15 ATS last 3 seasons when playing against teams with winning records. Byu is 1-4 ATS vs good defensive teams allowing less than 64pts per game. They are also 0-2 ATS vs good defensive teams allowing less than 64pts per game after 15+ games. Byu scoring 81.3 ppg at home, but AF ONLY allowing 50 ppg on road. In my opinion, AF's type of play seems to give teams that rely on their Big Mens to win games a whole lot of fits, and they have trouble with teams who relies on their smaller quicker backcourt. AF beating of Utah twice, and Byu once so far, is perfect examples of this observation. Fly Boys fly high today, and may even fly away with an outright upset in this one.(PUSH)
**3 Unit Plays on:
DENVER -6.5-Denver 9-3 at home, scoring 71.8 ppg, and holding opponents to just 64 ppg and 40% from the field. NMSt is only 2-8 ATS as a Dog. They are also just 2-7 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record. Also, NMSt is only scoring 60 ppg on the road this year. Denver is a better FG and 3pt FG% shooting team. Denver has also beat NMSt by 14pts at NMSt on 2-5. Denver has a deeper bench than does NMSt and when playing at this altitude, you better have the reserves to come in and give others some much needed breaks. NMSt lacks this, while Denver is well rested, and that should spell another loss for them due to that Rocky Mountain High.(LOSE SU)
FL INTERNATIONAL +3.5-SAla is currently 0-4 ATS, 5-11 ATS the last 3 seasons, as a Fav. SAla is currently 2-10 SU on road, and lost its last game to NO. F Int won its last home game against NO. This will be F Int last home game of the year, and I expect them to want to go out winners in front of their fans. They also have the motivation on their side in this one as they are sitting at the bottom of the Conf and a win can push them above this S Ala squad, so pride could come into play. Lastly, it has been smarter to back the home teams in games like these where two bad teams play eachother. I'll take F Int with the motivation on their side, and against a S Ala team who doesnt have any business being favored over anyone, let alone on the road. Points not needed in this one, but take it anyway, just in case.(LOSE)
WOFFORD -13-Citadel is 0-10 SU on the road and scoring ONLY 52.5 ppg and 34.2% shooting from the field, while opponents are scoring 75 ppg and 48.3% from the field. Wofford is 6-5 SU at home, scoring 79 ppg and 49% from the field. Wofford is also 6-0 ATS vs Citadel since 1997. More currently, they are 4-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Wofford already beat Citadel by 10pts at Citadel. These stats should tell the story. Citadel is 3-14 ATS as an Underdog. They are 2-9 ATS after scoring 60pts or less. They are 0-2 ATS as a road Dog of 12.5 to 15pts. They are 1-5 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record. Lastly they are currently 0-5 ATS, 5-15 ATS last 3 seasons, 7-21 ATS since 1997, when playing with one or less days rest. Lay the lumber.(LOSE SU-WTF!)
**Ok Gang, fairly large slate for Monday, but one with alot of quality situational setups for us to take advantage of. I hope you all are in good health and spirits today. Think ONLY positive and have fun in life as it is to short to live any way else. Good Luck to you All today and Aloha Co-Captain.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 24, 2004 at 07:32 AM.]
**6 Unit Plays on:
TEXAS -7 (buy .5pts)-Kansas just 6-14 ATS in all lined games. Kansas currently 0-4 ATS vs good Offensive teams scoring 77+ pts per game. They are also currently 5-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. Lastly they are 0-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. Texas is currently 3-1 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record after 15 or more games. Texas is also 2-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. Kansas lost the last 3 road games, the last 2 were by 19pts and 20pts. Kansas just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road, scoring ONLY 67 ppg. Texas is 13-1 SU at home and scoring 86.1 ppg and 48% from the field, while holding opponents to ONLY 63.4 ppg and 38.5% from the field. Texas lost the last 2 games, the last two years to Kansas. I think a double REVENGER is in order today. Lay the points and expect another Blowout today.(WINNER-by 15pts)
UNLV -7 (buy .5pts)-Wyoming 0-10 SU and 0-9 ATS on the road, scoring just 64.6 ppg and 40.7% from the field, while opponents are scoring 75.6 ppg and shooting 44% from the field. Unlv is 11-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home, scoring 73.9 ppg and 48% from the field, while opponents are held to ONLY 65.6 ppg and 41.9% from the field. Unlv already beat Wyoming at Laramie by 14pts on 1-24. Unlv is 3-0 ATS as a home fav of 6.5 to 9pts. They are also 4-0 ATS after scoring 80pts or more. Wyoming is 0-2 ATs as a road dog of 6.5 to 9pts. They are also 1-9 ATS as a Dog. Also currently 0-9 ATS, and 9-23 ATS the last 3 seasons in road lined games. Also currently 4-13 ATS, 18-36 ATS last 3 seasons when playing against a team with a winning record. Lastly, they are currently 2-5 ATS, 6-18 ATS last 3 seasons when playing with one or less days of rest. Last year Wyoming got the sweep of Unlv, this year the Rebels return the favor. As far as I am concerned anything less than 10pts is a Gift.(WINNER-by 15pts)
RICE/FRESNO ST OVER 131-Rice 4-0 at home on OVERS. Rice averages scoring 82 ppg at home, but have run it to 90-100pts several times during the season. This one looks to be another high scoring affair majority coming from the home cooking Rice team that simply can run it and gun it. Number in my opinion off by about 10-15pts.(LOSE-by 7pts)
**4 Unit Plays on:
VILLANOVA +6.5-Nova 10-2 ATS on road and Cuse 3-9 ATS at home. Hmmmm, good road team vs bad home team. Nova is also 14-8 ATS overall and Cuse is ONLY 7-12 ATS for the season. Syracuse is currently 1-4 ATS as a home Fav of 6.5 to 9 pts. They are also just 2-5 ATS when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Another advantage in this one is that these two havent seen each other since 3-6-02, and in that one Nova beat Syracuse at Syracuse 78-64 as a 4pt dog. Syracuse is very over valued and their last game at GT definately showed this. Nova is simply a very dangerous road Dog that has been MONEY all year, and I aint going to jump off of this money maker. Another key stat I like is that Nova is playing their best ball Offensively % wise on the road then at home. This Dog simply likes to go into anothers house and piss all over the place. Today, they could do more than piss here at Syracuse. They could also take a DUMP, meaning they could pull the upset over this Cuse squad who is nothing without Carmello Anthony.(WINNER)
AIR FORCE +6-Here are some stats I like favoring AF. AF is 4-1 ATS as an Underdog. They are 5-2 ATS on the Road. They are currently 7-4 ATS, 31-15 ATS last 3 seasons when playing against teams with winning records. Byu is 1-4 ATS vs good defensive teams allowing less than 64pts per game. They are also 0-2 ATS vs good defensive teams allowing less than 64pts per game after 15+ games. Byu scoring 81.3 ppg at home, but AF ONLY allowing 50 ppg on road. In my opinion, AF's type of play seems to give teams that rely on their Big Mens to win games a whole lot of fits, and they have trouble with teams who relies on their smaller quicker backcourt. AF beating of Utah twice, and Byu once so far, is perfect examples of this observation. Fly Boys fly high today, and may even fly away with an outright upset in this one.(PUSH)
**3 Unit Plays on:
DENVER -6.5-Denver 9-3 at home, scoring 71.8 ppg, and holding opponents to just 64 ppg and 40% from the field. NMSt is only 2-8 ATS as a Dog. They are also just 2-7 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record. Also, NMSt is only scoring 60 ppg on the road this year. Denver is a better FG and 3pt FG% shooting team. Denver has also beat NMSt by 14pts at NMSt on 2-5. Denver has a deeper bench than does NMSt and when playing at this altitude, you better have the reserves to come in and give others some much needed breaks. NMSt lacks this, while Denver is well rested, and that should spell another loss for them due to that Rocky Mountain High.(LOSE SU)
FL INTERNATIONAL +3.5-SAla is currently 0-4 ATS, 5-11 ATS the last 3 seasons, as a Fav. SAla is currently 2-10 SU on road, and lost its last game to NO. F Int won its last home game against NO. This will be F Int last home game of the year, and I expect them to want to go out winners in front of their fans. They also have the motivation on their side in this one as they are sitting at the bottom of the Conf and a win can push them above this S Ala squad, so pride could come into play. Lastly, it has been smarter to back the home teams in games like these where two bad teams play eachother. I'll take F Int with the motivation on their side, and against a S Ala team who doesnt have any business being favored over anyone, let alone on the road. Points not needed in this one, but take it anyway, just in case.(LOSE)
WOFFORD -13-Citadel is 0-10 SU on the road and scoring ONLY 52.5 ppg and 34.2% shooting from the field, while opponents are scoring 75 ppg and 48.3% from the field. Wofford is 6-5 SU at home, scoring 79 ppg and 49% from the field. Wofford is also 6-0 ATS vs Citadel since 1997. More currently, they are 4-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Wofford already beat Citadel by 10pts at Citadel. These stats should tell the story. Citadel is 3-14 ATS as an Underdog. They are 2-9 ATS after scoring 60pts or less. They are 0-2 ATS as a road Dog of 12.5 to 15pts. They are 1-5 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record. Lastly they are currently 0-5 ATS, 5-15 ATS last 3 seasons, 7-21 ATS since 1997, when playing with one or less days rest. Lay the lumber.(LOSE SU-WTF!)
**Ok Gang, fairly large slate for Monday, but one with alot of quality situational setups for us to take advantage of. I hope you all are in good health and spirits today. Think ONLY positive and have fun in life as it is to short to live any way else. Good Luck to you All today and Aloha Co-Captain.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 24, 2004 at 07:32 AM.]
