Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Texas-Arkansas, Tennessee-Georgia and Kansas-BYU.
Today we have a loaded Week 12 College Football slate on tap with roughly 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our
VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
Texas (8-1, ranked 3rd) has won two straight games and just crushed Florida 49-17, easily covering as 21.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arkansas (5-4) just got crushed by Ole Miss 63-31, failing to cover as 8-point home dogs. This line opened with Texas listed as a 15-point road favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and expects another Longhorns blowout win. However, despite receiving 83% of spread bets we’ve seen Texas fall from -15 to -13.5. We even saw this line fall to -12.5 over the past few days. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Longhorns to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with Arkansas plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog. Arkansas is only receiving 17% of spread bets, making the Razorbacks one of the top contrarian plays of the day. Arkansas has buy-low value as an unranked home dog off a blowout loss against a sell-high ranked favorite off a blowout win. Arkansas enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they are coming off a bye while Texas played last Saturday. The Razorbacks are also a “dog who can score” system match (33 PPG), thereby keeping pace of backdoor covering. Sharp money has hit the over as well, raising the total from 56 to 58. Both teams rank on the faster side in terms of pace of play, with Arkansas ranking 19th and Texas 44th (out of 134 teams).
Tennessee (8-1, ranked 7th) has won four straight games and just dismissed Mississippi State 33-14 but failed to cover as 26-point home favorites. Conversely, Georgia (7-2, ranked 12th) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Ole Miss 28-10 and losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too high and they’re hammering Tennessee plus the points. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Volunteers, we’ve seen Georgia rise all the way to -10.5 before falling back down to -8.5 when it was announced that the Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava was upgraded from questionable to probable. As a result, we are right back to where the line opened at. This signals a sharp line freeze on Georgia, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor despite the Bulldogs being the unpopular side. In other words, it appears as though sharps are “Fading the Trendy Dog” Vols and instead laying the points with the Bulldogs. Georgia is only receiving 31% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split in the most heavily bet game of the day, which also happens to be a primetime game on ABC. Georgia has buy-low value as a favorite off a loss playing a sell-high dog off a win. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 121-80 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. Some shops are even inching down to 46.5. The under is only receiving 49% of bets but a whopping 75% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Kansas (3-6) has won two of their last three games and just took down Iowa State 45-36, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, BYU (9-0, ranked 6th) just edged Utah 22-21 but failed to cover as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the modest chalk with undefeated BYU at home. However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets we’ve seen BYU fall from -3.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kansas, with pros moving the line in favor of the road dog despite being the unpopular play. Kansas is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day, receiving only 32% of spread bets in a heavily bet, late night nationally televised game on ESPN. Kansas has buy-low value as an unranked road dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Short road dogs +4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. With roughly 3-points awarded for home field advantage, this means short road dogs +4 or less would be close to a pick’em on a neutral site. The Jayhawks are a “dog who can score” system match (32 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has risen from 56 to 57.5. The over is receiving 78% of bets but 88% of money, signaling heavy support from both sharps and the betting public. Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls from chilly low 30s with partly cloudy skies and mild 2-3 MPH winds.
