Kansas State (9PM ET ESPN) – We cash a no doubter on Monday as Louisville controls Virginia Tech from start to finish and wins outright and we look to continue a solid start to the week with another winner on Tuesday as we head back to the Big 12, where we are having an excellent this season thus far, and look to cash another winner in this conference when the Kansas State Wildcats take on the #13 Kansas Jayhawks at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas. We have been leading the charge with fading Kansas on the road, cashing big winners against the Jayhawks the last two times out with Kentucky and Texas and after Kansas picked up a solid win at home over the weekend against Texas Tech it looks like another prime spot to go against a Kansas squad that continues to be overrated here. We also cashed backing Kansas State the last time they played in this building as they dominated Texas Tech in a decisive 58-45 win. Kansas State is now 10-1 at the Octagon of Doom this season and their only loss came against Texas when they were dealing with multiple injuries. Kansas State got healthy and they have since won six of their past seven games, they are a win away from breaking back into the Top 25 and a favorite against a ranked Kansas team and everything lines up for the Wildcats to pull the “upset” on their home floor tonight. This is a geographic rivalry considering just 90 miles separates these two teams but Kansas has won eight straight against Kansas State and historically has won two in this series for every one that Kansas State wins. This is the first meeting between the two this season but Kansas State has a big revenge angle here from the past few years, even with Kansas not as strong as they have been during the eight game win streak over K-State they have still been ranked in the Top 15 all season so this would still be a signature win for the Wildcats and that’s how we expect them to treat this game. We have been saying it for weeks and will say it again here, Kansas is not an elite team without Udoka Azubuike. Without Azubuike they lose one of their best post scorers and rebounders, Dedric Lawson has been outstanding but it takes more than one guy to get wins in this conference and currently Kansas is Lawson on the inside and a handful of average shooters and that just isn’t going to cut it. Kansas is still a very good team, they are still very tough at home which Texas Tech found out this weekend but they aren’t elite anymore which means they are subject to the same struggles that other schools have on the road in the Big 12. Kansas is 90[SUP]th[/SUP] offensively averaging 76.8 points per game, they have dropped off in rebounding since Azubuike went down with a ranking of 85[SUP]th[/SUP] nationally and they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the Big 12 hitting just 67.7 percent from the line as a team. If you look at Kansas numbers there is nothing elite about this team, they are 1-5 on the road this season and if it didn’t say ‘Kansas’ on the front of their jerseys they would be a far bigger underdog on the road here. Kansas State is legit, this is a team that has most guys back from a squad that made it to the Elite Eight last year and while they haven’t been able to maintain their lofty preseason ranking the Wildcats are finally healthy and seem to be peaking at the right time. Kansas State has some ugly offensive numbers but the name of the game is defense for the Wildcats and they play it as good as any team in the country. Without Azubuike, Kansas has had to settle for jump shots which explains their struggles on the road because it’s just easier to knock down shots in the comfort of a familiar gym as opposed to a hostile environment in a foreign building. Kansas State is as good as anyone in the country at contesting shots so nothing will come easy for Kansas here and the “Octagon of Doom” is as tough of a venue as there is to play at in the Big 12 so if Kansas couldn’t win at Iowa State, West Virginia or Texas it’s unlikely they will be able to win here. Kansas State has seniors that have never beaten Kansas, this will be their last chance to do it in Manhattan so there’s a huge motivation angle backing the Wildcats here. Finally, this spread is just a massive red flag, this game opened at Kansas State -1 most places and it went up as high as -4 so far today. We see it out there at Kansas State -3 right now, the fact that Kansas State is this big of a favorite at home against ranked Kansas pretty much tells the story and we expect the move to be right as Kansas State earns a decisive win that covers the number. Kansas State is just the better team right now, Kansas is still getting too much credit for being “Kansas” and won some believers back beating Texas Tech over the weekend. We see that as more of Texas Tech being overrated and Kansas still being tough at home, this is Kansas on the road where they have done nothing this season in an extremely tough venue and we will lay the small number as Kansas State gets their signature win and does it convincingly.
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Play on Kansas State -3
www.topflightsportsinfo.com
tfsportsinfo@gmail.com
1-855-TOP-FLYT
Play on Kansas State -3
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