By Doug Upstone of 3Daily Winners
Ohio State at Illinois
12:00 ET, CBS
JazzSports.com Line – Ohio State -3.5, 138
Ohio State (19-0, 8-8 ATS) hasn’t had a demanding first half of the Big Ten schedule. That starts to change with trip to Champaign. Led by guard William Buford, the Buckeyes have played intelligent basketball, not straying from what they do best. Buford has preached to his teammates about the importance of working harder to improve and not be satisfied, especially in January. Last year’s Sweet 16 run left the returning players wanting more and they can really start building this season’s resume with win over Illinois. Ohio State is 8-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts.
With the number of power players Ohio State has, the Fighting Illini frontcourt has to match their physical presence in the paint. Bruce Webber will keep fingers crossed the Mike’s, Tisdale and Davis are ready mentally to do battle. Even if they can secure a stalemate, that would be a plus, because of who runs the show for Illinois (14-5, 10-9 ATS). Demetri McCamey is the perfect combo guard for the Orange and Blue, equally adept at scoring or dishing the ball. His level of performance will likely determine what side the scoreboard Illinois ends up on. The Illini are 15-5 ATS at home off a home win against a Big Ten foe.
The Buckeyes are 4-6 SU & ATS in last 10 visits.
3Daily Winners Line – Illinois -2
Villanova at Syracuse
12:00 ET, ESPN
JazzSports.com Line – Syracuse -5.5, 140
Coach Jay Wright his imploring his team to play defense with their feet and not their hands. Villanova (16-2, 10.5 ATS) has found themselves with peculiar player combinations a few times in Big East play due to foul trouble. The fouls are mostly a by-product of over-aggressiveness, trying to create steals leading to fastbreak opportunities. Coach Wright needs his team to play the right way, particularly since showing preference towards seven-man rotation and only going deeper when necessary. Villanova is 13-4 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive times.
It’s a high noon showdown for Syracuse (18-1, 7-10 ATS), who will throw out a multitude of weapons. If guard Brandon Triche is having off night, Jim Boeheim has no qualms about using Dion Waiters off the bench. James Southerland has also become a key player off the chairs for the Orangemen, scoring inside and outside. Of huge importance in this matchup is getting Rick Jackson going early. If Syracuse can establish control of the paint, they force Villanova away from the basket and draw fouls on the 6’9 Jackson on the other end of the floor. Syracuse is 9-2 ATS having won four of their last five games.
The favorite is 2-5 ATS in past seven meetings.
3Daily Winners Line – Syracuse -5
Kansas State at Texas A&M
2:00 ET ESPN
JazzSports.com Line – Texas A&M -5, 134
This Big 12 beauty could just as easily be held in a MMA cage, with how physical these two teams like to play. Kansas State (13-6, 4-9 ATS) will not only have to be ready to compete, but overcome the mental aspect of the game after playing at Missouri a few days ago and with Baylor and Kansas on deck. For the Wildcats to pull off road win at College Station, the frontline has to be aggressive, yet not commit silly fouls, hit the glass on both ends and score on the blocks when the ball is fed into the low post. With forward Curtis Kelly back, he has to show leadership. K-State is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a Big 12 rival.
Watching Texas A&M (16-2, 6-3-1 ATS) in the layup drill before any contest, you are struck by the fact the Aggies don’t have a player taller than 6’9 and in fact their biggest player that sees regular minutes is 6’8 David Loubeau. Despite this, Texas A&M leads the conference in rebound margin at 12.6, with coach Mark Turgeon demanding height isn’t a requirement to hunting down missed shots. Off the loss to the Longhorns, the Aggies are 7-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less.
The action in the paint is worth watching and nine of the last 13 confrontations have had spread of 7.5 or less with underdog 5-4 ATS.
3Daily Winners Line – Texas A&M -5
Texas at Kansas
4:00ET, CBS
JazzSports.com Line – Kansas -7, 143
This Texas (15-3, 10-3 ATS) outfit embraces the teaching of their coaches. The Longhorns’ players are more assertive on defense than last year’s crew and plays with the right amount of nastiness to be effective. This really matters when going thru a Big 12 gauntlet like the one Texas in the midst of. To knock off Kansas in Lawrence, the Horns will have to play with steely intensity on defense and remain calm on the other end of the floor, working the ball to forwards Gary Johnson and Jordan Hamilton for consistent scoring. Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight wins by 15 points or more since last year.
Kansas (18-0, 8-8 ATS) has nine players playing double digit minutes, which speaks to the incredible depth the Jayhawks enjoy. However, Bill Self offers this also proves that Kansas individual players are far too inconsistent for his liking and he won’t hesitate for a second, sitting one of his stars looking for a hungrier bench player wanting additional minutes to help his team win. A perfect example is sophomore forward Thomas Robinson, who always brings energy and attitude, something the twins Marcus and Markieff Morris don’t always showcase. Kansas is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.
Jayhawks are 7-2 and 5-4 ATS vs. Horns since 2005.
3Daily Winners Line – Kansas -11
Creighton at Missouri State
5:00ET, ESPN2
JazzSports.com Line – Missouri State -11, 129
It’s a battle of Missouri Valley Conference contenders. Creighton (13-7, 9-9 ATS) will be playing their third game this week and second on the road traveling to Springfield, MO. Among the teams near the top of the MVC standings, the Blue Jays might be the most vulnerable to slip back. Creighton’s starting five plays heavy minutes out of necessity, because they get nothing off the bench. This is a cultural change for Blue Jays followers who were used to the liberal substitutions of former coach Dana Altman. Creighton will lean on their starters to pull the road upset and are 7-1 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season.
Though the conference season has a little ways to go to reach the mid-point, the best team thus far is Missouri State (15-4, 11-5-2 ATS). The Bears impose their will upon opponents, controlling the tempo, playing tremendous defense and taking wise shots. A typical Missouri State encounter is around 130 total points which suits the head man. "I like the score at this level, because that means it's physical," Missouri State coach Cuonzo Martin said. The Bears have recipe that really works in this league with senior guards Adam Leonard and Nafis Ricks. MSU is 14-29-1 ATS after a conference ballgame.
Missouri State is .500 hosting Creighton with 6-7-1 ATS mark.
3Daily Winners Line – Missouri State -11
Michigan State at Purdue
9:00 ET, ESPN
JazzSports.com Line – Purdue -6, 131
Michigan State’s bumpy ride might finally be coming to an end. The Spartans (12-6, 6-11 ATS) back on Jan. 11 gutted out overtime victory over Wisconsin and FINALLY showed the grit coach Tom Izzo was looking for. Despite winning, this is not vintage Michigan State club, since they get nothing out of the center position, making low post scoring a challenge each time out. Nonetheless, there is enough high caliber personnel that the Spartans can make a run at Big Ten crown and knocking off Purdue would help. However, Michigan State is 2-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as a visiting underdog.
The loss of Robbie Hummel was certainly a blow to Purdue (16-3, 10-5 ATS). Nonetheless, it occurred before the season began and coach Matt Painter had time to relay to his team about the needing others to step up. Painter knew what he had from seniors JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore, but needed another scorer, and junior guard Ryne Smith has elevated his play since the start of the Big Ten season. This is major discovery for the Boilermakers who are just getting guard John Hart back from stress fracture, giving the Purdue numerous options to fill the bucket. The Boilers are 10-4 ATS when favored.
The home team is 6-2 with 5-3 mark. (0-2 SU & ATS L2Y)
3Daily Winners Line – Purdue -11
