Top attacking teams at the World Cup
ESPN INSIDER
World Cup tournaments are often defined by their memorable attacking performances, both on an individual level with in-form attackers who cannot stop scoring over a month-long stretch, and on a group level where there is always a team capable of a lopsided group-stage win that inevitably instills some fear in the rest of the tournament field.
Winning the World Cup requires that a team consistently dominate less-talented opponents while also being varied enough in individual talent and team tactics to manufacture goals in the later rounds. This is not an easy balance, as the top attacking teams are generally full of world-class players who are used to playing significant minutes with their club but now must fit into a specific role designed to strengthen their country's attack as a whole.
This makes ranking the top five attacking teams heading into the 2014 World Cup a difficult task, as various players throughout the 2013-14 club season have shown an ability to adapt and blend into their team setting, while others have stood out and forced their team to build around their individual performance. Based on World Cup qualifying and individual performance of players throughout the 2013-14 season, here is my list of the top five attacking teams heading into this summer's World Cup.
1. Germany
Germany was the most clinical attacking team throughout World Cup qualifying, and manager Joachim Low has a number of attacking options to work with going forward. The team led the UEFA region with 36 goals throughout World Cup qualifying, and also led the region with an average of 22 shots per game and 8.9 shots on target per game.
This particular pool of German players also created a region-high 17 chances per game, and the team also led UEFA with 16.9 take-ons in the attacking third per match en route to a record of nine wins and just one draw in 10 games, so in a vacuum of World Cup qualifying, it is pretty hard to debate the team's attacking dominance.
However, Low is aware that he can only have so many attackers on the field, and he must have a consistent attacking base to build around as the team looks to advance through the tournament. <OFFER>This foundation begins with Arsenal midfielder Mesut Ozil, who not only led Germany through World Cup qualifying with eight goals, but also led the team with 107 touches per 90 minutes (minimum three appearances). This volume of touches not only eclipses the 77.7 touches per 90 minutes that Ozil recorded with Arsenal in the 2013-14 Premier League, but also provides insight into the different role that he plays for club and country.
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<CITE>
</CITE>Heat map of Mesut Ozil's touches with Arsenal in 2013-14 Premier League season, left, and those with Germany in 2014 World Cup qualifying, right.
<!-- end wide photo -->Of the 107 touches per 90 minutes that Ozil averaged for Germany, 36.6 percent came in the central third of the field, compared to just 23.3 percent when playing for Arsenal. Moreover, Ozil averaged 2.7 shots per 90 minutes throughout World Cup qualifying as opposed to 1.2 shots per 90 minutes with Arsenal. He also averaged 5.4 take-ons per 90 minutes compared to 3.9 per 90 minutes for Arsenal, and created 4.5 chances per 90 minutes with Germany as opposed to 3.0 per 90 minutes for the Gunners.
This attacking prowess has as much to do with Ozil as it does with his supporting cast, as players like Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus and Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller and Mario Gotze are more than capable of making opponents lose track of where Ozil is on the field. Overall, Low will have some difficult decisions to make in Germany's midfield, but given the team's results so far, he may have the most attacking options to choose from of any manager heading to Brazil.
2. Spain
Spain predictably ranked first among all UEFA World Cup qualifying teams with an average of 382.6 attacking-third touches per game, but from that the team managed just 1.8 goals per game (12th in UEFA), and put just 5.3 shots on target per game (13th). This implies that manager Vicente del Bosque may need to be more direct in his attacking approach, which explains why he pushed so hard for Atletico Madrid striker Diego Costa to join the Spanish team.
Costa's impact on European football this season is clear, as the striker finished third in La Liga with 27 goals, and ranks third in the Champions League with eight goals heading into the tournament final. And even in the case that Atletico's long season has a negative impact on Costa's World Cup performance (3,073 La Liga minutes ranks fourth among Atletico outfield players), Del Bosque has other attacking options in his current 30-man roster.
Listed Barcelona strikers Cesc Fabregas and Pedro combined for 23 percent of Barcelona's goals this season, while the 13 assists that Fabregas provided also ranked second among all players in La Liga. Meanwhile, outside of the domestic league, Fernando Llorente posted 15 goals for Italian champions Juventus, and even though Manchester City striker Alvaro Negredo struggled to find his form in the second half of the 2013-14 Premier League campaign, his 34 goals over the past two seasons (2012-13 with Sevilla) outpace all but Costa in Spain's depth chart.
No matter which strikers are ultimately included in Del Bosque's final 23-man team, there will be no shortage of midfielders who can get them the ball. Barcelona's Xavi and Andres Iniesta remain important to Spain's possession-oriented attack, and in the current pool they are supplemented by David Silva and the nine assists that he recorded with Manchester City in 2013-14 (fifth in the Prem), along with Atletico Madrid's Koke, whose 13 assists are tied with Fabregas for the second most in La Liga, and whose 65 total chances created put him in the top 10 among La Liga players.
3. Argentina
Argentina led CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying with 35 goals throughout the 16-game slate, and in contrast to Spain the Argentines showed an impressive level of efficiency in their overall attack. Despite leading the region in scoring, Argentina ranked sixth out of nine total teams with just 13.1 shot attempts per game. However, the team ranked second in the region with 5.8 shots on target per game, and also ranked second with 7.5 shots per game from inside the opponent's penalty area.
Individually, perhaps no player is more efficient across Europe than Napoli's Gonzalo Higuain, who needed just 28 total shots (14th in CONMEBOL) to score nine goals in World Cup qualifying (third in CONMEBOL). Higuain also needed just 90 total shot attempts (15th in Serie A) to score 17 goals (fourth in Serie A), so in a tournament setting the Argentine striker certainly has Golden Boot potential. This is especially possible with a player like Angel Di Maria playing behind Argentina's strikers, as the Real Madrid midfielder not only led La Liga with 15 assists, but also led the league with 87 total chances created.
At the same time, it is no secret that Barcelona's Lionel Messi will be the featured player in Argentina's attack, and along with his 10 goals throughout World Cup qualifying (second in the region), Messi also led the tournament with five assists and ranked second in the region with 8.6 take-ons per 90 minutes. The team will also feature Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero, who led the Premier League champions with one goal and 2.4 shots on target per 90 minutes, so there is certainly enough attacking talent for Messi to work with in what is his best opportunity to win a World Cup.
4. Brazil
Before I explain why Brazil is fourth on this list of attacking potential (not overall success), and reiterate that this rank is No. 4 out of 32 and not No. 4 out of five, it's important to look at the 23-man roster that manager Phil Scolari has named for the World Cup. The group does not contain a single player who scored 10 or more domestic goals in a top-five European league throughout 2013-14, while just three of the seven midfielders (Oscar, Willian, Hernanes) chosen recorded more than 60 percent of their touches in the attacking half of the field in 2013-14 domestic competition.
At the striker position, the most prolific scorer is Hulk, who finished second in the 2013-14 Russian Premier League with 17 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg, and will undoubtedly work closely with Barcelona star Neymar in Brazil's attack. After that, domestic striker Jo scored just six goals in 21 appearances for Atletico Mineiro in the 2013 Brasileirao (tied for 36th in the league), while Fred scored just three goals after making only nine appearances in an injury-plagued 2013 season for Fluminense. Given that the 2014 Brasilierao is just five games old, it is hard to pass judgment on whether club form has improved for either player, but sitting just behind them in the depth chart is Ukrainian Premier League striker Bernard, who scored just twice in 18 appearances for Shakhtar Donetsk in 2013-14.
As the host country, Brazil did not have to go through World Cup qualifying, but the strong performance the team put together in the 2013 Confederations Cup certainly put the rest of the field on notice about how difficult it will be to beat this team in its home country (14 goals in the five-game tourney). Still, it is unclear just how much of the attack will rest on Neymar's shoulders, and how well the 22-year-old can handle the pressure after a bumpy second half of the season with Barcelona.
<!-- photo wide photo -->
Chart of Neymar's shots (blue dots) and goals (soccer balls) prior to Jan. 1 of 2013-14 La Liga season, left, and those after Jan. 1, right.
<!-- end wide photo -->Neymar made just 12 of a possible 21 appearances since Jan. 1; however, he did record 3.8 shots per 90 minutes compared to just 3.1 shots in his first few months in La Liga. From those shots, the Brazilian star scored just three goals compared to six goals prior to Jan. 1, and also saw a decline in shots on target while increasing his turnover rate by 37 percent in the second half of the season. Again, this does not mean that Neymar and Brazil cannot replicate the dominant performance they had at the 2013 Confederations Cup, but on paper it is evident why the team fought so hard to try and bring Brazil-born Diego Costa into the fold for the summer.
5. Netherlands
This will likely be the last significant World Cup for Manchester United striker Robin van Persie, whose 11 goals throughout World Cup qualifying led all players in the UEFA region. The 30-year-old striker is allegedly on the path to full fitness after a knee injury prematurely ended his season, but even if he is not at full strength in Brazil, van Persie is part of a Netherlands team that ranked second in the region with 34 goals scored throughout qualifying.
The supporting cast behind van Persie includes Bayern Munich midfielder Arjen Robben, who led the team with 3.9 shots per 90 minutes and ranked third on Bayern with 27 chances created. The midfielder also includes Hamburg catalyst Rafael van der Vaart, who led his team with 2.7 chances created per 90 minutes, and added five goals for the Netherlands throughout World Cup qualifying. The experience of this attack gives it a slight edge over an up-and-coming team like Belgium, which managed just 18 goals throughout qualifying, and the fact the core group of this Netherlands club was also a part of the 2010 World Cup team that scored 12 goals in the tournament (second most in 2010 World Cup) should be a sign that the team will be prepared heading into Brazil.
ESPN INSIDER
World Cup tournaments are often defined by their memorable attacking performances, both on an individual level with in-form attackers who cannot stop scoring over a month-long stretch, and on a group level where there is always a team capable of a lopsided group-stage win that inevitably instills some fear in the rest of the tournament field.
Winning the World Cup requires that a team consistently dominate less-talented opponents while also being varied enough in individual talent and team tactics to manufacture goals in the later rounds. This is not an easy balance, as the top attacking teams are generally full of world-class players who are used to playing significant minutes with their club but now must fit into a specific role designed to strengthen their country's attack as a whole.
This makes ranking the top five attacking teams heading into the 2014 World Cup a difficult task, as various players throughout the 2013-14 club season have shown an ability to adapt and blend into their team setting, while others have stood out and forced their team to build around their individual performance. Based on World Cup qualifying and individual performance of players throughout the 2013-14 season, here is my list of the top five attacking teams heading into this summer's World Cup.
1. Germany
Germany was the most clinical attacking team throughout World Cup qualifying, and manager Joachim Low has a number of attacking options to work with going forward. The team led the UEFA region with 36 goals throughout World Cup qualifying, and also led the region with an average of 22 shots per game and 8.9 shots on target per game.
This particular pool of German players also created a region-high 17 chances per game, and the team also led UEFA with 16.9 take-ons in the attacking third per match en route to a record of nine wins and just one draw in 10 games, so in a vacuum of World Cup qualifying, it is pretty hard to debate the team's attacking dominance.
However, Low is aware that he can only have so many attackers on the field, and he must have a consistent attacking base to build around as the team looks to advance through the tournament. <OFFER>This foundation begins with Arsenal midfielder Mesut Ozil, who not only led Germany through World Cup qualifying with eight goals, but also led the team with 107 touches per 90 minutes (minimum three appearances). This volume of touches not only eclipses the 77.7 touches per 90 minutes that Ozil recorded with Arsenal in the 2013-14 Premier League, but also provides insight into the different role that he plays for club and country.
</OFFER>
<!-- photo wide photo -->
<CITE>
</CITE>Heat map of Mesut Ozil's touches with Arsenal in 2013-14 Premier League season, left, and those with Germany in 2014 World Cup qualifying, right.
<!-- end wide photo -->Of the 107 touches per 90 minutes that Ozil averaged for Germany, 36.6 percent came in the central third of the field, compared to just 23.3 percent when playing for Arsenal. Moreover, Ozil averaged 2.7 shots per 90 minutes throughout World Cup qualifying as opposed to 1.2 shots per 90 minutes with Arsenal. He also averaged 5.4 take-ons per 90 minutes compared to 3.9 per 90 minutes for Arsenal, and created 4.5 chances per 90 minutes with Germany as opposed to 3.0 per 90 minutes for the Gunners.
This attacking prowess has as much to do with Ozil as it does with his supporting cast, as players like Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus and Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller and Mario Gotze are more than capable of making opponents lose track of where Ozil is on the field. Overall, Low will have some difficult decisions to make in Germany's midfield, but given the team's results so far, he may have the most attacking options to choose from of any manager heading to Brazil.
2. Spain
Spain predictably ranked first among all UEFA World Cup qualifying teams with an average of 382.6 attacking-third touches per game, but from that the team managed just 1.8 goals per game (12th in UEFA), and put just 5.3 shots on target per game (13th). This implies that manager Vicente del Bosque may need to be more direct in his attacking approach, which explains why he pushed so hard for Atletico Madrid striker Diego Costa to join the Spanish team.
Costa's impact on European football this season is clear, as the striker finished third in La Liga with 27 goals, and ranks third in the Champions League with eight goals heading into the tournament final. And even in the case that Atletico's long season has a negative impact on Costa's World Cup performance (3,073 La Liga minutes ranks fourth among Atletico outfield players), Del Bosque has other attacking options in his current 30-man roster.
Listed Barcelona strikers Cesc Fabregas and Pedro combined for 23 percent of Barcelona's goals this season, while the 13 assists that Fabregas provided also ranked second among all players in La Liga. Meanwhile, outside of the domestic league, Fernando Llorente posted 15 goals for Italian champions Juventus, and even though Manchester City striker Alvaro Negredo struggled to find his form in the second half of the 2013-14 Premier League campaign, his 34 goals over the past two seasons (2012-13 with Sevilla) outpace all but Costa in Spain's depth chart.
No matter which strikers are ultimately included in Del Bosque's final 23-man team, there will be no shortage of midfielders who can get them the ball. Barcelona's Xavi and Andres Iniesta remain important to Spain's possession-oriented attack, and in the current pool they are supplemented by David Silva and the nine assists that he recorded with Manchester City in 2013-14 (fifth in the Prem), along with Atletico Madrid's Koke, whose 13 assists are tied with Fabregas for the second most in La Liga, and whose 65 total chances created put him in the top 10 among La Liga players.
3. Argentina
Argentina led CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying with 35 goals throughout the 16-game slate, and in contrast to Spain the Argentines showed an impressive level of efficiency in their overall attack. Despite leading the region in scoring, Argentina ranked sixth out of nine total teams with just 13.1 shot attempts per game. However, the team ranked second in the region with 5.8 shots on target per game, and also ranked second with 7.5 shots per game from inside the opponent's penalty area.
Individually, perhaps no player is more efficient across Europe than Napoli's Gonzalo Higuain, who needed just 28 total shots (14th in CONMEBOL) to score nine goals in World Cup qualifying (third in CONMEBOL). Higuain also needed just 90 total shot attempts (15th in Serie A) to score 17 goals (fourth in Serie A), so in a tournament setting the Argentine striker certainly has Golden Boot potential. This is especially possible with a player like Angel Di Maria playing behind Argentina's strikers, as the Real Madrid midfielder not only led La Liga with 15 assists, but also led the league with 87 total chances created.
At the same time, it is no secret that Barcelona's Lionel Messi will be the featured player in Argentina's attack, and along with his 10 goals throughout World Cup qualifying (second in the region), Messi also led the tournament with five assists and ranked second in the region with 8.6 take-ons per 90 minutes. The team will also feature Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero, who led the Premier League champions with one goal and 2.4 shots on target per 90 minutes, so there is certainly enough attacking talent for Messi to work with in what is his best opportunity to win a World Cup.
4. Brazil
Before I explain why Brazil is fourth on this list of attacking potential (not overall success), and reiterate that this rank is No. 4 out of 32 and not No. 4 out of five, it's important to look at the 23-man roster that manager Phil Scolari has named for the World Cup. The group does not contain a single player who scored 10 or more domestic goals in a top-five European league throughout 2013-14, while just three of the seven midfielders (Oscar, Willian, Hernanes) chosen recorded more than 60 percent of their touches in the attacking half of the field in 2013-14 domestic competition.
At the striker position, the most prolific scorer is Hulk, who finished second in the 2013-14 Russian Premier League with 17 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg, and will undoubtedly work closely with Barcelona star Neymar in Brazil's attack. After that, domestic striker Jo scored just six goals in 21 appearances for Atletico Mineiro in the 2013 Brasileirao (tied for 36th in the league), while Fred scored just three goals after making only nine appearances in an injury-plagued 2013 season for Fluminense. Given that the 2014 Brasilierao is just five games old, it is hard to pass judgment on whether club form has improved for either player, but sitting just behind them in the depth chart is Ukrainian Premier League striker Bernard, who scored just twice in 18 appearances for Shakhtar Donetsk in 2013-14.
As the host country, Brazil did not have to go through World Cup qualifying, but the strong performance the team put together in the 2013 Confederations Cup certainly put the rest of the field on notice about how difficult it will be to beat this team in its home country (14 goals in the five-game tourney). Still, it is unclear just how much of the attack will rest on Neymar's shoulders, and how well the 22-year-old can handle the pressure after a bumpy second half of the season with Barcelona.
<!-- photo wide photo -->
Chart of Neymar's shots (blue dots) and goals (soccer balls) prior to Jan. 1 of 2013-14 La Liga season, left, and those after Jan. 1, right.
<!-- end wide photo -->Neymar made just 12 of a possible 21 appearances since Jan. 1; however, he did record 3.8 shots per 90 minutes compared to just 3.1 shots in his first few months in La Liga. From those shots, the Brazilian star scored just three goals compared to six goals prior to Jan. 1, and also saw a decline in shots on target while increasing his turnover rate by 37 percent in the second half of the season. Again, this does not mean that Neymar and Brazil cannot replicate the dominant performance they had at the 2013 Confederations Cup, but on paper it is evident why the team fought so hard to try and bring Brazil-born Diego Costa into the fold for the summer.
5. Netherlands
This will likely be the last significant World Cup for Manchester United striker Robin van Persie, whose 11 goals throughout World Cup qualifying led all players in the UEFA region. The 30-year-old striker is allegedly on the path to full fitness after a knee injury prematurely ended his season, but even if he is not at full strength in Brazil, van Persie is part of a Netherlands team that ranked second in the region with 34 goals scored throughout qualifying.
The supporting cast behind van Persie includes Bayern Munich midfielder Arjen Robben, who led the team with 3.9 shots per 90 minutes and ranked third on Bayern with 27 chances created. The midfielder also includes Hamburg catalyst Rafael van der Vaart, who led his team with 2.7 chances created per 90 minutes, and added five goals for the Netherlands throughout World Cup qualifying. The experience of this attack gives it a slight edge over an up-and-coming team like Belgium, which managed just 18 goals throughout qualifying, and the fact the core group of this Netherlands club was also a part of the 2010 World Cup team that scored 12 goals in the tournament (second most in 2010 World Cup) should be a sign that the team will be prepared heading into Brazil.
