TM - 2018 MLB Picks

[TreyMethod]

Good morning all, new poster here. As baseball winds down I wanted to share some plays. Will be posting for other sports as well.

12:10
2* STL@ATL UNDER 8.5 +105
Like this under as Flaherty has been great and consistent both home/road. He also has a sparkling 2.14 ERA over 8 starts during the day time. Touki shined in his MLB debut but struggled a bit vs Boston and at Arizona. He also got lit up in a relief appearance but he’s been rested for 10 days and should be good to go. Don’t sleep on this kid as he had a great Minor League year posting a 2.38 ERA over 24 starts.

1:10
2* TIGERS+103
Moya will start for Twins but Gonsalves will likely get the majority of the work after the first inning. This guy is no good, he posts a 9.39 ERA this year. Small sample size (5 games) but he seems to struggle at the MLB level. For Detroit, Turnbull will get his MLB debut start. He has been trending upwards with a solid 2.03 ERA at AAA this season. Hopefully he will continue his momentum.

May be back for Tampa/Tex but unsure. Leaning over, need to do some more research though. Good luck.

 

[indiana]

T.M...…..welcome to the RX forum, sure you will enjoy the site......many good cappers here...…..good luck...……..indy

 

[StevieRay]

Good luck

 

[varkeyboy]

Welcome to the forum. Good luck.

 

[Onthedot]

damn so much for that tiger pick. figure

 

[TreyMethod]

0-2 (-4*)


Thanks for the warm welcoming. Not the start I had planned here. Bad luck in STL/ATL game (stolen home with 2 outs, error in 7th which led to an unearned run, etc.). For Tigers, bad call. Gonsalves throws his best game yet and Turnbull has 2 bad innings. Only stings worse that I don't play the Tampa/Tex over which cashed!


2* BOS@NYY OVER 8-110
2* NYY-1.5 +132
This is more of a Price-fade than anything. NYY owns David Price. This year he has a 12.19 ERA in 3 starts against them. Over his career he has a 4.86 ERA against them (41 starts). At the new Yankee stadium Price's ERA over 30 games is 4.75 with a whopping 1.48 WHIP. That is a bloody awful WHIP (his ERA should be HIGHER for putting that many runners on base). I think they get to Price. As a slight hedge, I am taking OVER as well since Luis has been abysmal post ASB (6.35 ERA in 10 starts). It doesn't hurt that Judge is back in the lineup as well.


2* SF@SD UNDER 7.5-125
Both pitchers are coming off their best performances of the year. Petco Park is not very hitter friendly. Last night's game should have gone under (bullpen), but didn't. Think tonight's will.


2* D-BACKS-113
2* CUBS@D-BACKS UNDER 8-110
Both pitchers have great numbers versus each other. Cole has career 3.32 ERA at Chase field, 3.47 ERA against Arizona, and even this season he has just been a flat out better pitcher with the Cubs. His post ASB numbers are fantastic, 2.45 ERA. Same goes for Robbie. He's got a career 2.50 ERA vs. the Cubs. Earlier in the year he limited them to 1 run over 7 innings. Arizona almost dead in the water for the playoffs, but maybe Cardinals losing earlier will give them some hope to come out, play better, and get out of their funk.


1* PIRATES-220
This is more of a "feel" game. Fillmyer has been bad recently (23 ER over last 6 starts). Archer has been hit or miss since he was traded to the Pirates. So far this is not looking like a good swap for the Bucs. However, whether Archer's numbers are good or bad at the end of the game, he always has his K going for him. That means trouble for KC who is in the bottom 5 in MLB in drawing walks. They swing a lot. And when they face hitters with good K stuff, they miss a lot. For me, I just think this is a get right
spot for Archer to prove his worth - Pirates are hot (4 game win streak) and I'm rolling with them.

 

[TimmyRules]

BOL TM...I can also see Pit's bats waking up against Fill and this game goes Over 7x.

 

[TreyMethod]

4-4 (-1.06*)
Really disappointed in Cubs total. Rough first for Cole and a meaningless 2 run homer by Mathis bottom 8 is the difference between a day in the black and a day in the red.

 

[TreyMethod]

4-4 (-1.06*) 9/20/18

3:35PM
2* LAA+110

In 3 starts this year (post DL), Shoemaker has been OK (not good, not bad, just OK). He gave up 3 ER, 0 ER, and 3 ER. If nothing else he has been consistent. He hasn’t gone deep into games due to a limited pitch count coming off the DL. However, he did get an extra day of rest due to the “bullpen” game yesterday. Throughout his career, his best statistical month of the season has been September (2.88 ERA in 10 starts) and his worst being April (6.24 ERA in 17 games). The trend is that he gets better as the season progresses. He has actually faired well versus Oakland in his career (3.61 ERA over 13 games). Those numbers are slightly better at the Oakland Coliseum (3.43 ERA in 7 road starts). The Angels are eliminated from the post season, but today’s game, I feel, is more of a building block for Shoemaker. On the other side we have Edwin who is surprisingly having his best season since 2015. But looking deeper, September has been his worst month this year (3.86 ERA). Throughout his career, September has also been his worst month (5.87 ERA). His second worst month is April with 4.79 ERA - a full run+ lower. Big difference. For some reason he struggles in September far worse than any other month. Although, he faired well against the Angels on August 11 this year, his September numbers are too alarming for me. This is a tight line and I feel like the public will eat up Oakland at nearly a pick em and get burned. I’ll take the better pitcher at plus money facing a foe who struggles severely during the month of September.

 

[HacheMan]

GL today

 

[TreyMethod]

4-5 (-3.06*)

2* White Sox +183
2* Bkue Jays +140
2* Yankees -165
2* KC@DET OVER 8-115

Good luck.

 

[sunshine11]

Let's bring that Wh Sox home in the win column.

 

[TreyMethod]

7-6 (+2.1*)

With bad luck in Wed, we have amazing luck last night with a miracle 7 run 9th by BJs.

 

[TreyMethod]

7-6 (+2.1*)

2* White Sox +188
2* White Sox +1.5 +107
Lopez pitches better during the day and has been great lately (0.45 ERA last 3 games). Cubs trying to choke the division title away. Think the pressure is getting to them and we have good value in the Sox again today.

 

[TreyMethod]

3* Indians-142

2* Marlins +129
2* Phillies +113
2* STL-163

1* Houston-201

 

[TimmyRules]

7-6 (+2.1*)

2* White Sox +188
2* White Sox +1.5 +107
Lopez pitches better during the day and has been great lately (0.45 ERA last 3 games). Cubs trying to choke the division title away. Think the pressure is getting to them and we have good value in the Sox again today.

I wasn't as brave so early in the morning to play ML but do have them RL FF and game.
lets close this 7-1 lead

 

[TreyMethod]

I wasn't as brave so early in the morning to play ML but do have them RL FF and game.
lets close this 7-1 lead

Yessir - I hope so.

 

[TreyMethod]

12-8 (+7.32*)

Could have been a monster day if the Indians and Phillies didn’t blow substantial leads.

Going to mainly focus on CFB today but here are the MLB picks.

2* Nationals -165
2* Indians -121
2* White Sox +183
2* Reds/Marlins over 7.5-120

Good luck.

 

[HacheMan]

GL today Trey

 

[TreyMethod]

14-10 (+6.92*)