Time to bet on bush?

[Glaken]

New Poll Just Released - Bush Bet May Lose Value

Bush surges in poll By USA TODAY staff
WASHINGTON — President Bush surged to an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup national poll, giving the president a tie for his largest margin of the year with just more than two weeks left until Election Day. (Related link: Poll results)
In a poll taken Thursday-Saturday, Bush received 52% support from likely voters, Kerry received 44% and independent Ralph Nader received 1%. Three percent of likely voters had no opinion.

The 52% figure is a tie for Bush's largest support number since March, when it first became apparent Kerry would be the Democratic presidential nominee. And the eight-point spread is also a tie for the largest spread since March.

The survey also is a significant swing from the last USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup national poll. In that survey, taken Oct. 9-10, Kerry had 49% support, Bush had 48% and Nader had 1%.

Bush's favorable/unfavorable rating also improved in the new survey. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of Bush, compared to 44% with an unfavorable opinion. Kerry's favorable/unfavorable rating remained largely unchanged, with 52% of those surveyed saying they had a favorable opinion of Kerry and 45% saying they had an unfavorable opinion.

Bush regained a lead in the poll even though a plurality of likely voters thought Kerry won last Wednesday's debate —47% for Kerry to 35% for Bush.

But the percentage of likely voters who view Bush favorably climbed in the past week from 51% to 58%, while the number who viewed Kerry favorably stayed at the 51% level.

Kerry also finds himself battling the Bush campaign's attempts to label him as too liberal. Among likely voters, half (52%) say Kerry's political views are too liberal. Conversely, 41% of likely voters see Bush as too conservative.

Bush also has a lead in other recent polls. A Newsweek poll released Friday gave Bush 50% to Kerry's 44%; a Time magazine poll released the same day gave Bush a 48-47 edge; Friday's poll from The Washington Post gave Bush a 50-47 advantage and a Zogby poll released Friday gave Bush 48% and Kerry 44%.

The USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll is based on interviews with 1,013 national adults. The poll has a margin of error of between 3% and 5%, depending on the question.

Contributing: USATODAY.com's Randy Lilleston and USA TODAY's Jim Norman.

 

[RobFunk]

exactly glaken hes way ahead in the national poll feeling the pain in the electoral. the republicans dont know how to campaign.

last time around they had the spin tactic for the debates in '04 we called it out and they no longer got that advantage.

the demo fire power is way too much this time around. bush might as well spend the next 2 weeks campaigning in texas, the effect of what he is doing is pretty much the same.

bush isnt 50% anywhere dont look at those polls they are not sampling the right 'folks'

 

[Glaken]

I tend to agree with you.....I'm not sure where I heard it maybe was here; The cell phone only crowd is un-pollable, and the undecideds tend to favor Kerry 2-1, if that makes any sense.

 

[Shotgun]

I tend to agree with you.....I'm not sure where I heard it maybe was here; The cell phone only crowd is un-pollable, and the undecideds tend to favor Kerry 2-1, if that makes any sense.

There is a pretty good historical wrapup at this site that discusses the undecided factor.

http://myelectionanalysis.blogspot.com/2004/09/whither-undecideds.html

"This is actually fairly consistent: All Republican incumbents gained in the last days, while Democrats at best broke even. But it illustrates the fact that other factors come much more heavily into play than the "undecideds break for the challenger" rule -- partisan groundswells, for instance, can easily negate any such advantage (it's worth noting that, purely from my recollection, undecideds broke more-or-less evenly in the Johnson/Thune and Huckabee/Pryor Senate races).

In essence, pundits have made the fallacy of the inverse (or converse, I can never remember which). An incumbent above 50% in the polls is generally safe because it is much more difficult to persuade someone who is supporting an incumbent to switch their vote than it is to persuade someone who hasn't made up their mind. It doesn't follow, however, that an incumbent not above 50% is generally not safe. And the evidence, in fact, supports the contrary: They can expect to generally recover a fair amount of the undecided vote. Unless a candidate is well below 50% in the polls, or locked in a tight race in the high 40s, she can feel pretty good about the election."

 

[mr73551]

Looks like some special little thread spinne .. err starter is in denial

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html

Nice work Lander WHAT IS THE DATE ON THAT POLL?

For those who aren't interested in antiquated news - Here's a few current polls.

10/18 FOX BUSH +7
10/18 ABC BUSH +5