Off to a good start here at 5-1 +3.90% and hopefully it will continue with tonight's game.
For Thursday:
PITTSBURGH -5 Dallas 35
I had Dallas in last week's game with Houston but this week Pittsburgh qualifies in some very solid situations. Much has been written about taking dogs in the preseason, especially larger dogs. In fact, excluding this week of the preseason, week three, dogs of four or more are now 164-126-5 56.6% since 1983. But during week three, they are just 54-58-0. Why? It is also commonly known that coaches like to play their starters into the third quarter in these games, then resting their starters for most of their final preseason game. In other words, teams are now playing their starters longer and the better teams should win out. And they do. Dogs of five or more are just 37-50 and dogs of five to eight are just 31-50 (dogs of more than eight points are 6-0). The point here being anybody who tells you not to take favorites in the preseason, especially large favorites, is partly right, but not necessarily this week.
Much has also been made about Bill Parcells in the preseason, where he now stands 41-21-1 (1-1 this year). But what they don't tell you is Parcells is only 5-6 as a dog of three or more and just 3-4 as a road dog off a win. It appears Parcells has played most of these games as the favorite, or perhaps with the better team, during most of these years. Tonight, however; he won't have the better team and he got his win last week which should temper the need to win another game so quickly. On the other side is Bill Cowher, who is now 5-1 as a favorite when his team has yet to win a game (the lone loss was last week against Philly). I have to believe Cowher will want his team to play hard tonight and we will get his starters for at least two quarters and possibly a couple of series into the third quarter. With that in mind, that means it's Tommy Maddox and company against Chad Hutchinson and company. That's a mismatch. I could get back doored in the last quarter but I'll take my chances.
The Steelers qualify in a couple of solid situations tonight. They qualify in a 27-8-1 situation that plays on teams off a couple of losses and a 30-5-1 situation that plays on teams who lose their first two games of the preseason, including a 23-0-1 subset of that 30-5-1 situation. I'll give it a shot with Pittsburgh tonight.
YTD 5-1 +3.90%
1% PITTSBURGH -5
For Thursday:
PITTSBURGH -5 Dallas 35
I had Dallas in last week's game with Houston but this week Pittsburgh qualifies in some very solid situations. Much has been written about taking dogs in the preseason, especially larger dogs. In fact, excluding this week of the preseason, week three, dogs of four or more are now 164-126-5 56.6% since 1983. But during week three, they are just 54-58-0. Why? It is also commonly known that coaches like to play their starters into the third quarter in these games, then resting their starters for most of their final preseason game. In other words, teams are now playing their starters longer and the better teams should win out. And they do. Dogs of five or more are just 37-50 and dogs of five to eight are just 31-50 (dogs of more than eight points are 6-0). The point here being anybody who tells you not to take favorites in the preseason, especially large favorites, is partly right, but not necessarily this week.
Much has also been made about Bill Parcells in the preseason, where he now stands 41-21-1 (1-1 this year). But what they don't tell you is Parcells is only 5-6 as a dog of three or more and just 3-4 as a road dog off a win. It appears Parcells has played most of these games as the favorite, or perhaps with the better team, during most of these years. Tonight, however; he won't have the better team and he got his win last week which should temper the need to win another game so quickly. On the other side is Bill Cowher, who is now 5-1 as a favorite when his team has yet to win a game (the lone loss was last week against Philly). I have to believe Cowher will want his team to play hard tonight and we will get his starters for at least two quarters and possibly a couple of series into the third quarter. With that in mind, that means it's Tommy Maddox and company against Chad Hutchinson and company. That's a mismatch. I could get back doored in the last quarter but I'll take my chances.
The Steelers qualify in a couple of solid situations tonight. They qualify in a 27-8-1 situation that plays on teams off a couple of losses and a 30-5-1 situation that plays on teams who lose their first two games of the preseason, including a 23-0-1 subset of that 30-5-1 situation. I'll give it a shot with Pittsburgh tonight.
YTD 5-1 +3.90%
1% PITTSBURGH -5
