Thursday night NFL best bets: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWeek 16 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with two teams battling for playoff spots.
The San Francisco 49ers (8-6) have wins in five of their last six games, while the Tennessee Titans (9-5) are looking to get back on track after dropping three of their last four.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (43-40-1, 3-4 last week), Doug Kezirian (16-25-2, 0-2), Tyler Fulghum (25-27, 2-3), Anita Marks (260-218, 33-19) and Erin Dolan (2-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (28-26-1, 1-2), Stats & Information's Seth Walder (59-50, 2-3), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (50-40, 6-3) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (118-117, 6-12) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44) at Tennessee Titans
Dolan: The 49ers are firing on all cylinders right now. As they continue to make a push for the playoffs, I am looking at player props for this TNF matchup against the Titans. I'm rocking with George Kittle going for over 68.5 receiving yards. Kittle has averaged 142 receiving yards in his last three games. Yes, you read that right. That's 73.5 yards more than his receiving yards prop set at 68.5. On the season, Kittle has averaged 77.3 receiving yards per game. Plus, he has scored six touchdowns, reeling in 63 receptions on 82 targets. Jimmy Garoppolo will be able to get the ball in the hands of a healthy Kittle against a Tennessee defense that ranks 20th against the pass, allowing 242.5 passing yards per game.
Pick: Kittle over 68.5 receiving yards
Fortenbaugh: The loss of both running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver A.J. Brown has transported Tennessee's offense back to the Stone Age. Take a look: With Henry and/or Brown (11 games): 26.4 ppg, 354 ypg, 1.5 turnovers per game. Without Henry and Brown (three games): 15.3 ppg, 312 ypg, 2.6 turnovers per game. Throw a Julio Jones hamstring injury and a Thursday night date with a physical 49ers defense that is permitting just 18.6 points per game over its last six outings, and you have a recipe for yet another stagnant offensive performance.
Pick: Under 44 points; Titans team total under 19 points (+120); Titans team with most punts (-109)
Moody: The 49ers have averaged 29.3 rushing attempts per game this season, which is the seventh-most in the NFL. In spite of this, Jimmy Garoppolo has been productive, averaging 249 passing yards over the last seven games. He excels at getting the ball out quickly and distributing it all over the field. The 49ers' offensive line is ranked 16th in pass block win rate and is evenly matched against a Titans defense that ranks 16th in pass rush win rate. Garoppolo's protection will be crucial for San Francisco. When kept clean, he has thrown for 2,518 yards and a 70% completion percentage on 288 attempts. Against the Titans, the 49ers could rely more on Garoppolo and the passing game. The Titans rank second in run stop win rate. Moreover, Tennessee is ranked first in only allowing three runs of 20 or more yards and the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9). It would be prudent for Shanahan to utilize receiving playmakers such as Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle when Tennessee stacks the box.
With only two targets against the Falcons, Aiyuk reverted to being a supplemental part of the 49ers' passing game. On the other hand, it is important to remember that he averaged 30 routes run, seven targets and 65 receiving yards per game from Weeks 8-14. Against the Falcons, Aiyuk ran 24 routes. It is my expectation that the Titans will give Deebo Samuel a great deal of defensive attention, which will allow Shanahan to design plays for Aiyuk that leverage his rushing and receiving capabilities. Over the last three games, Kittle has led the 49ers in targets and has averaged 141.7 receiving yards per game. Averaging an excellent 69.3 yards after the catch per game, he is unstoppable whenever he has the ball in his hands. With more than 69.5 receiving yards in six of 11 games this season, Kittle has a significant advantage over the Titans linebackers.
Over the last two games, Ryan Tannehill has averaged only 172 passing yards per game. It has been difficult for the Titans passing game without Brown and Julio Jones, but Brown should be able to play against the 49ers. In the last five games, Matt Ryan, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Trevor Lawrence have averaged 242 passing yards per game against the 49ers defense. Tannehill has a good chance of achieving or exceeding that average.
Picks: Garoppolo over 240.5 passing yards (-115); Aiyuk over 49.5 receiving yards (-115); Kittle over 69.5 receiving yards (-115); Tannehill over 213.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: The 49ers have won five of their last six and Jimmy G is playing like an MVP the last eight games, averaging 7.5 yards per passing play and sporting a 70% completion percentage. San Francisco's offense is first in the NFL in yards per play on first down (6.5) which is a huge part of Jimmy's success. Jeff Wilson Jr and Samuel have picked up the slack in the rushing game, with Eli Mitchell on the shelf. Deebo has seven rushing touchdowns, and six in his last five games. Aiyuk had an off week last week, but should get back on track against a Titans secondary that is averaging 25 targets a game. Tannehill is expected to be missing a number of his weapons yet again. Jones is dealing with an ankle injury, and there is still a question that Brown is active on Thursday night. The 49ers need this game more than the Titans in regard to making it to the postseason.
Pick: 49ers and Eagles moneyline parlay (-114); 49ers over 23.5 team total points (-125); Samuel TD and 49ers win (+225); Garoppolo over 238.5 passing yards (-115); Aiyuk over 48.5 receiving yards (-115); Tannehill over 15.5 rushing yards (-120)
Schatz: There's a big gap between these teams in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. San Francisco is eighth in weighted DVOA (weighted towards more recent games) and Tennessee is only 22nd despite a 9-5 record. The Titans are good against tight ends, which is a valuable strength to have against Kittle and the 49ers. But they're weak against play-action passes, especially considering that they are now starting Zach Cunningham at linebacker. Cunningham has always been excellent against the run but poor in pass coverage and very susceptible to play-fakes. On the other side of the ball, the Titans will be missing both left tackle Taylor Lewan (back) and left guard Rodger Saffold III (COVID), a problem against a San Francisco defense that ranks seventh in pass rush win rate. And the 49ers, second in run defense DVOA, should totally shut down the Titans' running game with replacement-level backs D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard.
Pick: 49ers -3.5
