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'Big Home Favorites August/September'

August is upon the baseball season which means MLB clubs in the playoff hunt are giving their all and teams outside the October picture are planning holiday's. That disparity in motivation can lead to some big odds baseball bettors must deal with.

On the surface, it may seem like easy money when you see a home winning team with a great pitcher hosting a mediocre team. However, what seems like a sure thing seldom is in baseball. The very best teams clock in with a 60% winning percentage, the worst teams are usually good for a win 40% of the time so winning 2 out 3 doesn't cut it with heavy juice.

Over the past five seasons (2011-2015) home favorites priced -$2.40 or more during August/September were 95-35 for a 73.3% winning clip. But, the heavy chalk resulted in +$401 at the betting window. Not exactly a good return on investment.

Putting down your hard-earned money on these humungous home favorites when hosting a division opponent down the stretch would have left you in a -$924 hole despite the teams winning at a 68.7% clip (55-25).

Something to keep in mind as the season moves along.
 
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'Jays close series with win'

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros August 4, 8:10 EST

Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays conclude a four game series at Minute Maid Park Thursday evening. Sportsbooks have Toronto -$1.20 road favorites with the total set at 8.5 runs.

Mike Fiers toes the rubber for Astros, bringing a 7-4 record to the hill with a 4.42 ERA. In his last start the righthander tagged with a no-decision tossed 6 1/3 innings of 1 run ball in Stros 3-2 loss at Detroit. Fiers will relish the return to home field where he sports a 6-2 record with a 9-2 Team Start Record in eleven assignments.

Fiers will be matching pitches with Toronto's southpaw J.A. Happ, who continued his dominant season last effort striking out 11 while allowing 3 hits, 1 run in a Jays 9-1 win vs Orioles. With the victory, Happ carries a 14-3 record, 3.16 ERA into the contest.

Happ doing Toronto's bidding bodes well for the team. The Blues Jays have won his last nine starts and eleven of his last twelve trips to the mound. Additionally, the fact Happ is a portsider is bad news for the Stros, since Houston has lost three of four against lefthanders, including 0-3 the last three attempts.
 
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MLB

Thursday’s games

National League

Giants @ Phillies
Moore makes his SF debut; he was 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts for Tampa Bay. Eight of his last ten stayed under.

Velasquez is 3-1, 2.75 in his last six starts; three of his last four stayed under. Phillies are 5-3 in his home starts.

Giants lost nine of last ten road games; eight of their last 12 games stayed under. Phillies are 7-9 in last 16 games. Eight of last 11 Philly home games stayed under.

Pirates @ Braves
Vogelsong was 0-0, 1.29 in two starts earlier in season (over 2-0).

Jenkins is 1-1, 4.95 in his four starts (under 3-0-1).

Pittsburgh lost seven of last nine road games; seven of last nine Pirate road games stayed under. Atlanta is 7-12 in last 18 games; five of last seven Brave games went over.

Cardinals @ Reds
Former Red Leake is 1-1, 9.73 in his last two starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Cardinals are 6-3 in his road starts.

Finnegan is 3-1, 5.57 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over. Reds lost three of his last four home starts.

Cardinals lost three of last four games, over is 6-0-1 in their last seven. Cincinnati is 11-6 in its last 17 games; four of Reds’ last six games stayed under the total.

Dodgers @ Rockies
Maeda 2-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; his last three went over. Dodgers are 6-3 in his road starts.

Chatwood is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts (under 14-4-1). Rockies are 4-6 in his home starts.

Dodgers lost seven of last ten road games; over is 8-3-1 in LA’s last 12 road games. Colorado won 11 of last 13 games; under is 11-5-2 in their last 18 games.


American League

Twins @ Indians
Santana is 2-2, 2.48 in his last five starts; six of his last seven stayed under. Twins are 2-6 in his road starts.

Clevinger is 0-1, 8.79 in three starts, last of which was May 29; all three games went over.

Twins are 10-5 in last 15 games, scoring 35 runs last three nights; over is 12-4 in Minnesota’s last 16 road games. Cleveland lost last three games; over is 10-2-2 in their last 14 home games.

Royals @ Rays
Kennedy is 0-2, 6.61 in his last three starts; Royals lost his last seven road starts. Seven of his last eight starts stayed under.

Smyly is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; over is 12-3 in his last 15 starts. Tampa Bay is 3-6 in his home starts.

Royals lost 19 of last 27 games- they’re 3-19 in last 22 games not started by Duffy; eight of last 11 KC road games stayed under. Tampa Bay won five of last seven home games; under is 15-5 in Rays’ last 20 games.

Rangers @ Orioles
Griffin is 1-0, 2.53 in his last two starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Texas is 5-3 in his road starts.

Miley was 1-1, 2.07 in his last two starts for Seattle; four of his last five starts stayed under.

Rangers won seven of last 11 games but lost last two; five of their last six games stayed under. Baltimore won its last three games; under is 9-0-1 in their last ten home games.

White Sox @ Tigers
Quintana is 1-1, 2.78 in his last five starts; his last three went over. White Sox are 6-4 in his road starts.

Zimmerman was 0-2, 13.15 in is last three starts before going on DL after his July 5 start; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine starts. Detroit is 5-3 in his home starts.

White Sox lost 11 of last 13 road games; three of last four Chicago games went over. Detroit won its last nine games; four of last six Tiger games went over.

A’s @ Angels
Hahn is 0-2, 9.00 in his last three starts (over 4-4). He is 0-3, 14.90 in his three road starts (under 2-1).

Nolasco makes his Angel debut here; he was 1-4, 5.80 in his last seven starts for Minnesota. Over is 16-4 in his last 20 starts.

Oakland lost its last five games; over is 4-2-2 in their last eight games. Angels won ten of last 12 home games; four of their last six games stayed under.

Blue Jays @ Astros
Happ is 8-0, 2.77 in his last nine starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Blue Jays are 6-4 in his road starts.

Fiers is 1-1, 6.20 in his last four starts; over is 10-5-1 in his last 16. Houston won his last five home starts.

Blue Jays won five of last six road games; their last three games stayed under. Houston lost seven of last nine games; under is 12-4-1 in last 17 Astro home games.

Red Sox @ Mariners
Pomeranz is 0-2, 7.54 in three starts for Boston (under 2-1).

Miranda is making his first MLB start; he was 4-7, 3.93 in 19 AAA starts this year, and allowed three runs in two IP in his one MLB appearance.

Red Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 games; ten of last 11 Boston road games stayed under. Seattle lost four of last six games; under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.


Interleague

Mets @ Bronx
Colon is 1-2, 6.62 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Mets are 6-3 in his road starts.

Eovaldi is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Bronx is 6-3 in his home starts.

Bronx lost five of last seven games; last five Bronx games went over. Mets lost six of their last eight games; over is 6-1-1 in last eight Met games.


Teams’ record when this pitcher starts

StL-Cin– Leake 10-11; Finnegan 7-22
SF-Phil– Moore 0-0/9-12; Velasquez 10-8
Pitt-Atl– Vogelsong 1-1; Jenkins 2-2
LA-Colo– Maeda 13-9; Chatwood 12-7

Tex-Balt– Griffin 9-4; Miley 0-0/10-9
Min-Clev– Santana 5-15; Clevinger 1-2
Chi-Det– Quintana 11-10; Zimmerman 10-6
KC-TB– Kennedy 9-12 (0-6 last 6); Smyly 7-13 (1-6 last 7)
Tor-Hst– Happ 16-5; Fiers 11-8
A’s-LA– Hahn 4-4; Nolasco 0-0/9-12
Bos-Sea– Pomeranz 1-2/9-8; Miranda 0-0

NYM-NYY– Colon 13-7; Eovaldi 10-9


Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:

StL-Cin– Leake 7-21; Finnegan 7-22
SF-Phil– Moore 3-21; Velasquez 3-17
Pitt-Atl– Vogelsong 0-2; Jenkins 2-4
LA-Colo– Maeda 5-22; Chatwood 7-19

Tex-Balt– Griffin 1-13; Miley 7-19
Min-Clev– Santana 6-20; Clevinger 2-3
Chi-Det– Quintana 4-21; Zimmerman 4-16
KC-TB– Kennedy 8-21; Smyly 6-20
Tor-Hst– Happ 5-21; Fiers 3-19
A’s-LA– Hahn 2-8; Nolasco 9-21
Bos-Sea– Pomeranz 4-20; Miranda 0-0

NYM-NYY– Colon 7-20; Eovaldi 5-19


Umpires

SF-Phil– Over is 5-3 in last eight Iassogna games.
Pitt-Atl– Over is 12-2-1 in last 15 TBarrett games.
StL-Cin– Underdogs are 8-6 in last 14 Hamari games.
LA-Col– Last three Timmons games stayed under.

Tex-Balt– Under is 4-0-1 in last five HGibson games.
Min-Clev– Six of last nine Reynolds games stayed under.
Chi-Det– Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen O’Nora games.
KC-TB– Underdogs won six of last seven Holbrook games.
Tor-Hst– Four of last five Tichenor games went over.
A’s-LA– Under is 8-3 in last eleven Cooper games.
Bos-Sea– Over is 4-0-1 in last five Emmel games.

NY-NY– Over is 11-1-2 in last 14 Wolcott games.
 
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Thursday’s 6-pack

— For the first time since 2000, you can bet on the Olympics in Las Vegas, which gets the ticket windows open early.

— Minnesota Vikings open their new domed stadium this year.

— Home team lost the last six Cowboy-Eagle games.

— Tampa Bay Rays lost their last 12 games where winning run scored after the sixth inning- they’re 10-23 for the year.

— Twins 13, Indians 5– Minnesota scored 35 runs in beating Tribe the last three nights.

— Buccaneers hired Dirk Koetter as head coach because he worked well with Jameis Winston, which means Illinois got its new head coach (Lovie Smith) for the same reason, seeing as the Bucs fired Smith so they could promote Koetter.
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Thursday, August 4, 2016 10:10 PM

(971) BOSTON (POMERANZ) VS (972) SEATTLE (MIRANDA)

Play OVER the total.
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Thursday, August 4, 2016, Free Pick: 10:10 PM

(971) BOSTON (POMERANZ) VS (972) SEATTLE (MIRANDA)

Play Boston.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

PIRATES (Vogelsong) at BRAVES (Jenkins) 7:10 PM

Take: PIRATES -130

Ryan Vogelsong returns from a lengthy DL stint after getting hit in the eye by a batted ball in one of the scarier incidents I can remember. He’s looked okay in his rehab starts, and I wouldn’t think there’s any particular restriction on pitch count, though 90 is probably the max for Vogelsong.

I don’t have a problem trying to beat Tyrell Jenkins here. Jenkins has a live arm and looks like a guy who could become a rotation fixture for the Braves if he can improve his control. That remains an issue, and even in a quality start like his last one, there was still a problem with walks. But I don’t want to overly downgrade Jenkins either, and his starts aside from a disaster at Coors haven’t been that awful. What is awful is the Braves recent record when playing off a win. They’re just seemingly unable to string W’s together and stand 2-12 in their last 14 after celebrating a victory.

I’ll admit to some misgivings on the Pirates as they kind of look like a dead team right now. But strange as it sounds, I’m keying Vogelsong here. I think he’s going to want to prove he has no residual effects from the injury. There was buzz following the injury that his career was finished, and I can see him wanting to show everyone he’s okay. The price is acceptable where it is presently, and I’ll give the Pirates a roll tonight.
 

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