Thursday 8/28/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday 7:30 PM NFLX

(113) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at (114) NEW YORK GIANTS

Take: (114) NEW YORK GIANTS -3 (-120)

This is all about gathering information and playing an advantage, so there’s very little analysis involved here. The Patriots will treat this game as nothing more than a warmup for the regular season. Bill Belichick got a really crisp effort from his regulars last week and this will simply be an evaluation exercise to determine perhaps one starting offensive line spot and the final cuts.

It’s a little different story for the Giants. Their new offense still needs reps, and it appears as though the ones are going to play somewhere between 15-18 snaps. That’s 2-3 series where the Giants will have starters on the field, while the Patriots will be countering with backups.

There’s really nothing more that I need beyond that information. In a game that doesn’t count in the standings, if I can get that many snaps with regulars vs. reserves, I’m going to be taking the team playing the first unit guys. In this case, that’s the Giants, so I’m laying the points tonight.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp NFLX Pick for Thursday, August 28, 2014: 7:30 PM EST

(113) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (114) NEW YORK GIANTS

Take: (113) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, August 28th, 2014, comes in the NFL as the Patriots and the Giants meet in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Patriots have a real strong QB rotation for 2014 and rookie Jimmy Garrappolo will play the whole game. The kid has looked and he'll be facing NY Giant backups. Garoppolo has played well this preseason, throwing for 334 yards on 24-for-37 passing with four touchdowns and no interceptions. And this Patriots defense is deep. New York is playing its 5th preseason game and has little to prove at 4-0. The defense has allowed 26 and 24 points the last two weeks and the rotation behind Eli Manning isn't impressive with Curtis Painter and Ryan Nassib. With Odell Beckham Jr. still injured and Marcus Harris now on Injured Reserve, the wide receiver corps is thin. Their offensive line is a problem: Outside of J.D. Walton at center, the rest of the offensive line is in flux. Play the Patriots!
 
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Art Aronson

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

1* Bonus Play Houston Astros

The visiting Texas Rangers will have Nick Tepesch (4-8, 4.45 ERA) toeing the rubber tonight; Tepesch gave up six earned runs in 6 1/3 innings on Saturday in a loss to the Royals. Note that Tepesch has just two wins since the beginning of June and is only 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.97 ERA in all road starts to date. The home side counters with Collin McHugh (6-9, 3.02 ERA) who is coming off a very solid stretch of pitching, the right-hander has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and has won two of his last three overall. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the last place Rangers after their massive offensive output in Seattle yesterday. Note that the Astros have taken four of six from the Rangers when hosting this matchup this season; also note that Texas is just 28-40 away from friendly confines this year. McHugh gets the nod on the bump, I think that’s enough to warrant a second look at the home side in this matchup.

AAA Sports
 
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Brandon Shively

NCAA-F Texas A&M vs. South Carolina

Bonus Play #133 Texas AM/134 South Carolina UNDER the TOTAL

Texas AM @ South Carolina-----I like this game to stay UNDER the Total on this Thursday Night as the College Football season in finally underway. This game is tricky for the linesmakers to set the 'total' because of the differences in both teams style of play. In 2013, Texas AM's lowest total was 63 and that was vs. Alabama. We saw a high total of 81 posted for them when they played SMU. The average total for the Aggies last season was 72.5 and they ended up averaging 76 total points scored. For South Carolina, their average Total last season was 52.5 . The highest total was at 63 when they played Clemson and the game went UNDER by 15 points, 31-17.

Looking at this game, the Total of 58 is about 2 touchdowns less for Texas AM from last season. I do think that these 14 points are warranted though as Johnny Manziel is worth every bit of 2 -3 touchdowns in my opinion. Not only is Manziel gone, but so is WR Mike Evans who was a #1 Draft Pick. Evans was Manziel's favorite target as he caught 12 touchdowns and seemed to catch anything thrown in his vicinity. Now the Aggies more than likely will be starting a rFR in Kyle Hill. Regardless of who gets the start, I do not see the offense putting up more then 20-24 points in this game on the road in a rowdy environment. I will also note the Gamecocks have only allowed an average of 20 ppg over the last 4 seasons. I can see a lot of Texas AM drives stalling out and settling for field goals as touchdowns will be hard to come by.

For South Carolina, they lose QB Connor Shaw who was a dynamic dual threat that threw for 24 TD's and ran for 6 more last season. The replacement is Dylan Thompson who is not as agile and is more of a pocket passer. South Carolina will rely on their running game behind one of the nation's premier backs in Mike Davis who will be running behind an offensive line that returns 113 career starts. I look for Spurrier to call a conservative game for Thompson and this in turn will see more clock usage because of the majority of running plays.

A&M's defense was terrible last year, but they return 9 on defense this season. They should have one of the better offensive lines in the nation as everybody returns after allowing 222 rushing yards a game in 2013, they can only improve as everybody has another year under their belt. Also, I like the secondary for Texas A&M to make big improvements as well and I see them holding South Carolina to 27-30 points in this game for an easy UNDER.

In closing, I expect both offenses to be conservative and not efficient in the red zone with new starting quarterbacks. I clearly feel the loss of Manziel will be huge to the Aggies as it will take time for this offense to find an identity. Look for the Texas A&M defense to play inspired tonight as well as they got torched last year and HC Sumlin is under pressure to make the proper changes this season.

There are some key trends as well that we will use to our advantage for this game. The UNDER is 5-2 in Texas A&M' last 7 road games. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in South Carolina's last 8 Thursday games and South Carolina ended the season on a 4-0 UNDER run in conference games.
 
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Brad Diamond

Rutgers vs. Washington State

Bonus Play Rutgers+ over Washington State (First Meeting)

Site: CenturyLink Field, Washington (Seattle)

I am making this call knowing I did radio for many years in ear shot of the Scarlet Knights campus. Would love to see the Rutgers alumni and students finally settle into a conference where they can compete at a high level, but the Big-10 is not their best chance of success. Dancing in the Big East for 2+ decades, the AAC for a brief stint and now the Big-10 has to, initially, complicate the schools approach to recruiting 4* and 5* HS student athletes? Washington State plays in their second home, the daily concubine of the Seattle Seahawks of the NFL. A little unearthing stat to play havoc with your mental processing, the Cougars are 0-6 SU in the Super Bowl Champions building.

HC Kyle Flood (15-11) brings back 16 starters to the Rutgers football team, whereas HC Mike Leach (93-59) of Washington State returns 14 starters form 2013. The Scarlet Knights are more run oriented than the Cougars who only run out of sheer boredom. In 2013 RU averaged 26.5 points per game, while allowing 29.8 points per game. Washington State put together an offense last year that rolled to 31.0 points per game, defensively allowing 39.5 points per. WSU gave up 4.5 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per pass. With those numbers it’s amazing they beat USC (10-4) and Arizona (8-5). Overall Rutgers has a solid DL and LB corpse, but lacks the secondary to stay with the Cougars wide outs. Washington State has many issues on defense, but in the early going within the environment at Seattle, they should win this SU. Now the key point, who grabs cash? If the Scarlet Knights can go on the road to Fresno State (11-2) and lose by one-point 52-51 in game #1 last year, they should cover here as a road puppy 17-8 ATS L25 in that role.
 
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Johnny Wynn

Rutgers vs. Washington State

Free Pick Washington State -8

Information that is in on this game is to bet it small. Also this game fits my power rating module as Washington is predicted to win by 14.
 
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Lee Williams

Ole Miss vs. Boise State

Bonus Play Ole Miss -9.5

We like Ole Miss -9.5 here as we are getting 2 teams that certainly have a gap in talent level and an Ole Miss team that looks like it is ready to contend for SEC Title and certainly give Alabama a run for money.The Rebs had some issues with pass rush last year, but it looks like Freeze has tools in place to correct this and even with some new starters on offensive line, this Rebel team still has superior weapons at skill positions. This is a spot we expect Ole Miss to win by double digits!
 
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Carolina Sports

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina

Free Pick Texas A&M

This is the first ever meeting between the Aggies and Gamecocks. Everyone knows that the Aggies lost two key offensive weapons in Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans. However, the cupboard is not bare for these guys. With 5 returning starters back on offense from a team that avg 44.3-ppg over the last two seasons, they will still be good this season. Kenny Hill will take over at QB this season and he extremely athletic. The defense needs to get better and it will with 9 returning starters back. This unit will improve as the season progresses.

The Cocks are loaded this year especially on the defensive side of the ball. The offense will be improved this year as we look for the 34.1-ppg numbers to get better with 8 starters returning on offense. Dylan Thomspon is no slouch at QB for the Cocks as he filled in nicely for Connor Shaw when he was injured. Offensively, the Cocks will be led by RB Mike Davis. Look for him to put up big numbers this year. Defensively, the Cocks are loaded with talent. Last year it was all about Jadeveon Clowney and no one talked about the other contributors. The defense only allowed 20.3-ppg last year and those numbers will improve this season.

Texas A&M is 12-30 on the road since 1992. Spurrier usually does his best in conference games as he is 90-65 ATS as a head coach with Florida and South Carolina. Texas A&M falls into a negative 9-50 ATS stat indicator in this one. Look for this game to be a shootout as the public is on South Carolina. Our ratings have South Carolina -10 so the line is fair but our computer is calling for a 4-point Cocks win. South Carolina wins this by a touchdown. South Carolina 34 Texas A&M 27
 
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Tony Karpinski

Tulane vs. Tulsa

Bonus Play Tulane

The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes, coming in off a terrible season, have to play with a strong effort that they absolutely need behind their running game, I expect a healthy dosage of Zack Langer throughout. Tulane needs to keep moving guys around on the defensive side of the ball, and I trust them to get things done in Tulsa, mainly by stopping the expected running game. Tulane plus the points here as your comp play.
 
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Timothy Black

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina

Bonus Play South Carolina

South Carolina returns a great defense and they will look to feast on a new QB making his first road start. A&M finished 0-4 ATS in road games last year with their experienced offensive fire power, so it's not too much of a stretch to see that continue into the start of this year.

The Aggies defense has been very bad and starting on the road against South Carolina's offensive line, and RB Mike Davis, will do them no favors. The Gamecocks also start a new QB, but Dylan Thompson does have some experience and has more talent and experience around him, not to mention the comfort of the home crowd.

The Gamecocks win, 34-17, in a very entertaining season kick-off.
 
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Patrick Webb

Wake Forest vs. UL-Monroe

Bonus Play Louisiana Monroe to win by 3+ points

This game opened with ULM a 4 point dogs at most books and has steadily been moving towards ULM in a 6 point swing to this point. I don't think this will reach the key number of 3, as the line is trending back towards Wake. I would not take ULM at anything higher than -2.5 and think it will be possible to get this at pick or -1.

Both of these teams are extremely young, but ULM has a serious experience edge in terms of returning contributors. ULM is looking to temper the youth movement with a 5th year transfer QB Pete Thomas taking the reigns from star Kolton Browning who carried the offense on his back last season. Thomas won't be as much of a running threat as Browning was but should get a bit more help from the skill spots as nearly everyone returns outside of Browning. RB DeVontae McNeal was lost for the season, but he may be missed more as a returner than as a rushing threat. ULM was a heavy pass driven team last season and will likely be so again this year as they return a talented slot receiver in Rashon Ceasar who accumulated 936 yards on only 64 catches and had a solid 67.7% catch rate. If Thomas can establish some chemistry with Ceasar early that should lead to some opportunities for the rest of the receiving group against a defense that will likely struggle to generate a threatening pass rush versus a veteran offensive line (79 starts among 3 returning starters).

Wake's new coach Dave Clawson is a turnaround specialist coming off a very good rebuild of Bowling Green. He inherits an incredibly young team and is starting a true freshman QB tonight. John Wolford isn't going to be surrounded with a lot of veteran talent as the top two rushers and receivers are gone from last season's squad. Wake was a team that struggled to generate a consistent rushing attack last season and may struggle again this year. Wake returns several lineman with starting experience and will remain fairly young on the front line.

ULM returns a ton of experience on defense and really played well down the stretch last season. This is the third year in the system for many of these players and ULM held Wake to 19 points at Wake last season with a four year starter at QB. ULM runs a 3-3-5 that constantly shifts making Wolford's job even tougher. Compound that with Wolford making his first start on the road and the ability for ULM to run in a ton of players in expected 90 degree heat, ULM's defense has a big advantage in this game when Wake has the ball.

Wake returns a lot of experience to the back seven, but are thin along the defensive line as they transition from a 3 man to a 4 man front. Wake's secondary is talented and is headlined by two solid corners in Kevin Johnson and Merrill Noel who combined for 6 picks and 18 pass break ups last season. The issue is they won't likely match up with Ceasar and Wake is going to struggle to provide a pass rush against ULM's scheme and line.

Special teams are a likely wash in this game. Neither of these offenses are likely to be consistent or explosive, but ULM's experience along the lines and especially on defense gives them a pretty solid edge to go along with their first home game opening weekend in years. I look for ULM to take an early lead they never relinquish and win this game by 7 to 10 points.
 
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Scott Spreitzer

NFLX New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Bonus Play New York Jets

I'm recommending a play on the NY Jets plus the points on Thursday night. While Jets' starters are expected to sit, the Eagles will go even a little deeper, not only not playing their starters, but also sitting several key second-string players. The Eagle defense has been horrible in the second half of preseason games, at least the reserves, who're the players we'll see on the field tonight. Philly will reportedly start Matt Barkley at QB, while Michael Vick will see a little action early-on for Rex Ryan. I do like the rotation for the Jets slightly, after tonight's starters take a spot on the bench. The Jets fit a 35-14 preseason NFL spot. You play on teams with a winning SU record if they're underdogs to a team with a preseason win percentage of .250 to .400. The teams fit the bill. We'll recommend a play on the Jets plus the points on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
 
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Steve Rosen

Ole Miss vs. Boise State

Bonus Play Ole Miss

Boise didn't beat any good teams last year and lost 5 games. The best in the mountain west ought to get a beat down going on the road against a loaded SEC team with a good senior QB.Bo Wallace the Mississippi QB is very good when healthy, he has gotten banged up during the SEC season each year but he should be just fine for this game.Defensively, the Rebels are led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (eight tackles for loss), senior free safety Cody Prewitt (six interceptions) and sophomore safety Tony Conner (66 tackles). There are 2 main reasons I love this game.New coach and systems for Boise in Week 1 will having them running around like chickens with no heads. Ole Miss D will be very talented and very hungry to win this game.
 

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